AOK, first off, congratulations to EU and OC that both got pretty good and even unexpectedly good numbers for the last VB. Whilst many in OC region will still have missed out, EU got within a few hundred cases of being current.
Now then, AF, AS and SA. Awful news. Horribly sad. Let’s talk about them one by one.
My first thought was like many of you I am sure, that this VB was a mistake. What could possibly be going on?
The AF number is a clear increase of 5750. This can’t be a mistake, it is deliberate. For AF I believe the CEAC database is understated, so I can see that if there are even a few hundred cases that show ready or AP when in fact they are issued, that could change the VB numbers by thousands. However, I am disappointed that KCC seem to have been ignoring the no show issue for this last VB, as the previous VB seemed to suggest they were acting to address that.
Furthermore, the late submitted DS260 backlog cases are still an issue for all regions but particularly AF. DS260 processing seems dramatically improved just recently so that people submitting their DS260s even in late May are finding themselves being processed already. Those late submissions are still taking visa spaces obviously – so that is a factor that only KCC can see at this point.
Lastly, the AS result suggest they seem to be giving existing AP cases a chance, rather than prioritizing new cases. This is a reverse of what they have done before, but in a sense it is understandable. If someone has had their interview, and clears AP in September, it is a double blow to find there are no available visas. KCC may be using this low V number to reduce the chances of that happening.
We will only know their wisdom or otherwise when we see the final annual numbers. I really hope KCC does not leave visas unused!
For Asia, this is a nightmare. Honestly – I cannot understand it beyond saying that they must be allowing for a flood of AP approvals for Iran. if the quota estimates are correct, that is the only explanation. Now, as I mention above for Africa, the priority being given to closing AP cases is a reverse of previous years, but is arguably a fairer approach.
Nepal being stopped at 7150 is not such a big surprise. Nepal seems to be heading for around 460 issued visas per 1000 cases, so anyone that has being doing the math can understand why Nepal is not increasing.
We haven’t spoken much about SA. The lack of increase for them is another big shock, again I suspect there is an understating of the CEAC data issued number. Again, time will tell.
Could these numbers change??
I remember a year ago questioning the same thing. SA in particular seemed like a mistake, so we wondered for a while whether we would see an update to the VB, either as a correction to the existing month, or a change in the following VB. Whilst that is not impossible (especially the correction to this month), it is not that likely so I would hate to give anyone the impression that they should wait for that. So – my heart would love to see that happen – but I don’t think it will.
Congratulations to those that have gone current. It is a lottery, some experience the joy of going through, some don’t. It is awful for those just now seeing the reality and I hope my comments over the past months have not increased the burden on anyone. To those that I felt were in safe positions but have missed out (life AF numbers fro 50000 to 55000 for example) I am deeply sorry. If I could change it, I would in a heartbeat, but perhaps now more people will understand my reluctance to be pinned down on the final predictions – because this process always brings surprises, some good, some bad.
July 24, 2015 at 21:28
Dear Britsimon I am dv2016 losers I meant no selected but when I see people here screeming missed out for higher CN I am totally feel sorry for those sending this EDV almost 13 years and got high csn but lucky is that kind some won and others lose for me 15 years I’ve been sending Edv
July 24, 2015 at 22:20
It is a mix of emotions and luck for many people. …
July 26, 2015 at 10:50
I want to get married in the UK and come back to Germany. Since my wife have to stay in UK till she finishes her studies do you think this would raise questions. Is the marriage certificate from the UK questionable ?
July 26, 2015 at 14:37
I think it is very likely that they will question whether a marriage like that is real. The UK marriage certificate is obviously accepted everywhere. However, not living with your wife will raise questions…
July 27, 2015 at 19:22
I am Egyptian my case no 2015af28xxx and i reserved the appointment letter on September, is there any chance to get the visa in the interview or it will be finished.
July 27, 2015 at 19:27
When they make appointments they allocate a visa – so you will be fine.
July 28, 2015 at 13:08
Thanks for your efforts, how many visas are left for Asia and for saudi arabia special? If there chance for how’s have interview in august?
July 28, 2015 at 14:55
Everyone scheduled for an interview has no need to worry – the visa places are allocated when they schedule the interview.
August 15, 2015 at 13:49
Am I still have to fully completed I-130 and DS-230 parts I and II forms?
August 15, 2015 at 14:08
If you are doing consulate process, no
August 15, 2015 at 18:20
Will the final cut numbers in dv 2015 give us a clue regarding the final cut numbers in dv2016 especially asia?
August 17, 2015 at 15:49
Yes and no. The years are all different in terms of numbers but the data will be revealing. There are many months to go though…
August 22, 2015 at 10:14
Whoever get selected for further processing, I need to know the secret of winning. Some people from Google search says that if you enter a lottery 3rd day after starting and 3rd day before ending the chance of selected is higher?Please share with us the secret you used to win
August 22, 2015 at 14:15
It is completely random!
October 11, 2015 at 11:21
This is my case number 2016AS000075xx
Will I have chance?
Completed DS260 on August 20 2015.
October 11, 2015 at 15:23
Your number is high compared to last year but not hopeless at all.
November 7, 2015 at 12:41
My case number is 2016AS000055**.
What is the chances of safe this case number..?
Submitted DS-260 form at the end of June month.
Which month I will get 2nl in ur thinking ..?
Thanks in advance
November 7, 2015 at 15:27
2NL early summer – hard to be precise at this point…
November 10, 2015 at 06:42
Why it is hard too precise this case number at this point …any idea sir ..?
November 10, 2015 at 16:44
I don’t understand your question.