This is another important piece of data that we need to know to predict the final numbers.
Not everyone responds to their win. Some people enter the lottery, get selected, and then for whatever reason, never submit their DS260. It could be that they did not check their win, they changed their mind, or many other reasons. The response rate can help us predict the final numbers and can also help understand the backlog. By comparing the response rate to the final response rate from last year, we can guess how many cases from those already current should have submitted their DS260 – and therefore predict how many submitted late and are the backlog.
I calculate response rate based on those cases that are current (allowing for country limits) and then excluding “at NVC” cases (which either have not completed the DS260 OR were late). That allows us to guess the backlog.
For example, Africa last year had a final response rate of 61%. As you can see in the chart below, it is currently only having 37.77% response rate – so of the 11981 cases that could have responded, only 4525 have, but I expect about 2750 more to respond (over 5200 selectees).
In the next few months the response rate will certainly increase toward 2015 levels – and the backlog cases will continue to take some of the interview slots in each given month. This has the effect of slowing down the VB progression. The reason for that is simple – if there are, for example, 1500 interview slots open for AF region in a given month, and 500 come from the backlog (already current cases with delayed DS260 submissions), then KCC only need to increase the VB number by enough case numbers to get 1000 more cases.
In terms of the final numbers we can use the 2015 final response rates to determine how many of the selectees will want an interview. We use the higher family rate for that (as I explained today in an earlier post on derivative rate growth).
That gives the following picture for how many selectees will want interviews.
What this means is clear. Allowing for the derivative growth, and 2015 response rates, there are two regions (EU and OC) that won’t hit their quota even if every single case that responded were to be approved (which of course is a ridiculously optimistic view).
That means those two regions (OC and EU) will go current – there is no doubt in my mind (and this confirms what I have been saying for some months now).
Just a word of warning. This calculation is not perfect, it assumes people across a region will behave in the same way. It would be better to model this on each country, but for broad estimations, this method is OK.
For the remaining 3 regions we will have to take the calculation to the next step which is to estimate how many of the selectees will be approved. l will post about that later today or tomorrow.
All the analysis posts.
Derivative growth rate
Issued Rate and Predictions
January 3, 2016 at 18:44
This is a proper anlysis Brit many thanks
January 3, 2016 at 18:53
Dear does this mean that AS715x chances are bigger now? And when do u expect the number to be current?
January 3, 2016 at 18:57
That number is in a risky range – but if it does get current I would expect that in September, possibly August.
January 3, 2016 at 19:06
What kind do you think that it would increase the number for March interviews in Europe?
January 3, 2016 at 19:07
I don’t know. They will be current in a couple of months anyway – so that isn’t where I am spending my analysis time. Relax, and be patient.
January 3, 2016 at 21:17
From your point of view. Doyou think af240## will be current in next visa bulletin from Egypt?
January 4, 2016 at 00:55
January 3, 2016 at 21:58
Please my case number is 2016AF00036xxx sent in my form first week of November,please when do you think my case will go current and when can I possibly have an interview?
January 4, 2016 at 00:55
January 4, 2016 at 06:19
Hi brit be blessed and our daughter sofia.
Today i wanna ask u again about my case because since i sent my Ds 260 i received nothing like message…but other peoples when they submited their Ds260 then after 3 week they reveiced a message then kcc receive their ds260 so what about me…
I am scared now
Please brit could i have ur advice
January 4, 2016 at 15:09
Relax – not many get any such message.
January 4, 2016 at 07:32
Hi Brit, thanks for the valuable analysis.
A technical question, I’m from Egypt and resident KSA (in the D260, I mentioned KSA FOR INTERVIEW). Should the documents be the Egyptian or Saudi e.g. security certificate?
My case # is AF22XXX
January 4, 2016 at 15:09
You need police certificates for more than one country – depending on where you have lived (read the instructions!).
Documents should be presented in local official language or English translations.
January 5, 2016 at 02:14
dear simon how about AS5XXX? is it risky to get visa?
January 5, 2016 at 03:00
January 5, 2016 at 04:41
i’m so happy for that. thanks you so much brit 😀
January 5, 2016 at 15:11
my case number is 2016AF00021xxxx,do you think,will be to next visa bulletin?
January 5, 2016 at 17:54
January 8, 2016 at 15:28
Is any deadline for submit ds260?
January 8, 2016 at 15:36
No a hard deadline, no.
January 9, 2016 at 09:59
Hi Simon, does this mean that AS5850 chances are bigger now? And when do u expect the number to be current?
January 9, 2016 at 17:39
Bigger, why would they be bigger??
January 9, 2016 at 14:44
Hi brit, my cn is 2016af13### submitted it on sept ending when will i get my 2nl for interview
January 9, 2016 at 17:37
Probably March interview (2NL in about 2 weeks). Might slip to April.
January 10, 2016 at 20:21
Slt Simon mon case number est Af 40100 est ce que vous pensez qu’ils vont arriver à mon case Number ?! Si oui quand est ce que svp faites moi une estimation svp.et merci infiniment
January 10, 2016 at 20:30
January 11, 2016 at 10:41
I found 44 nepalies with derivativesper per 100 cn in average up to cn 2900 . Is density parallel up to cn 7100
January 11, 2016 at 21:22
Yes – but I think your number is a little high.
January 12, 2016 at 18:56
Hi Britsi my cn is AF28*** from Ethiopia when will the interviw date please?
January 12, 2016 at 18:59
January 12, 2016 at 19:15
Thank you for your response.is my case number safe or not AF28*** please.
January 12, 2016 at 20:03
January 13, 2016 at 03:47
Hi Simon Happy new year . My case Num 2016 AF 5xxx. I have submitted my DS260 early october until now no sign from KCC. Do I have to send an email to Kcc to ask about my application status? Would like to know if The 2NL will be sent to my email or there ìs an other way to check the application status. Thanks
January 13, 2016 at 04:17
You submitted late. So your 2NL is late. You don’t have to send any email – just be patient.
When 2NLs go out you can check the ESC website (where you saw the 1NL).
January 13, 2016 at 11:36
Thanks for your reply . How to know that the 2nd NL is out?
January 13, 2016 at 16:45
You will see me announce it.
January 18, 2016 at 09:44
Kindly, I would like to know when is the interview for CN 2016AF00035210. Thanks
January 18, 2016 at 15:39
January 18, 2016 at 20:19
Thank for your response by showing the months of my interview. With reference to my CN 2016AF00035210, How would I know the main date and time for my interview and medical.
January 18, 2016 at 20:45
Nearer the time you will get the details from KCC. Relax and wait.
February 19, 2016 at 02:44
am still with my question.once you win i don’t think they have to refused you be cos it a lottery. My certificate was only B.E.C.E and they refused me the visa. for all the money
i have paid
February 19, 2016 at 03:51
I don’t understand why you were surprised. The entry FAQ makes very clear that the standard of education needed was higher than the level you had achieved. So, you did not meet the requirements. Why did you attend the interview (thus paying the fees) without checking one of the many places you could have checked to see if you qualified?
January 6, 2018 at 11:26
Hi Brit – thanks for your extensive work and effort, really appreciate it.
I’m 2018OC00002XXX for Australia here, do my chances change at all?
January 6, 2018 at 11:28
Sorry wrong bulletin…
January 6, 2018 at 15:43
You still have no chance in my opinion.
March 11, 2018 at 12:16
My case number passed can I still submit my Ds26Oform
March 11, 2018 at 15:10
May 17, 2018 at 07:44
MY NUMBER IS 2018AF42000 IN THIS RANGE WHT MY PROBABILITY TO GET VISA DATE
MY WIFE IS PREGNANT MEDICAL EX-RAY NOT ACCEPTABLE WHAT CAN WE DO
I REGESTER UNIVERSITY DEGREE IN DS 260 I DID NOT REGISTER HIGH SECONDARY SCHOOL IS THIS EFFECT
May 17, 2018 at 13:59
1. Wait and see
2. The physician will use a shield during the xray.
3. Maybe. Take secondary proof to the interview.
November 29, 2019 at 13:44
Thanks for the explanation series, Simon. Going through it in 2019, still makes a lot of sense.
There’s a thing I would love to get a clearer understanding of. Let’s say Case Number 30k in EU has already submitted their documents and DS-260, and both have been checked by KCC at some date, i.e. Jan 1.
Q: Once the bulletin goes current in EU, will that CN immediately be invited to their interview ahead of those whose documents & DSs have been processed after Jan 1 nevermind their case number (i.e. CN 15k with DS & docs processed on Jan 2)?
November 30, 2019 at 00:41
Your question is unclear, but let me say again what I have explained many times.
INterviews are arranged in batches, based on cases ready for scheduling AND current at the beginning of each month. So – cases that are current but have not subitted DS260 and documents before the beginning of any given month cannot be scheduled in that month. The scheduling is “two months” ahead of the interviews, November scheduling being for January, December being for February.
That should answer everything!
November 30, 2019 at 12:05
Thanks, I was just asking from a different angle.
What I meant to ask was: does the CN matter after the whole bulletin goes current in terms of who gets scheduled first (among CNs that are ready for scheduling)?
November 30, 2019 at 16:59