In a previous post I explained some analysis which tried to estimate the number of selectees notified in the 2nd draw. That post can be referenced here.


Today I have taken the highest case numbers allocated for each region and by comparing to DV2015 and DV2016 data I have built a pretty accurate estimate of the number of cases in each region. Adding in the known derivative rates (based on DV2016 derivative rates) we can get a pretty good idea of how many selectees are in each region, and take a guess at how many selectees were notified in the 2nd draw.

Here are my numbers:-

The numbers in some regions are understated because countries that were limited in the 1st draw have lower case numbers and so would have received additional selectees without increasing the max case number. This means the 2nd draw estimate numbers above are on the low side (for AF, AS and EU). So – I believe the 2nd draw added about 8,000 to 10,000 additional selectees.

I have now seen the official results of the DV2016 lottery, and we know the quota was underfilled in DV2016 – Having looked at that data I am hopeful that all regions will go current in DV2017. However, I can’t be 100% certain of course, and I believe the highest risk is for the highest case numbers selectees (2nd draw) in Nepal and the highest case numbers in SA region. I can’t predict any final cutoffs, but both those cases have some cause for concern.