In a previous post I explained some analysis which tried to estimate the number of selectees notified in the 2nd draw. That post can be referenced here.
Today I have taken the highest case numbers allocated for each region and by comparing to DV2015 and DV2016 data I have built a pretty accurate estimate of the number of cases in each region. Adding in the known derivative rates (based on DV2016 derivative rates) we can get a pretty good idea of how many selectees are in each region, and take a guess at how many selectees were notified in the 2nd draw.
Here are my numbers:-
The numbers in some regions are understated because countries that were limited in the 1st draw have lower case numbers and so would have received additional selectees without increasing the max case number. This means the 2nd draw estimate numbers above are on the low side (for AF, AS and EU). So – I believe the 2nd draw added about 8,000 to 10,000 additional selectees.
I have now seen the official results of the DV2016 lottery, and we know the quota was underfilled in DV2016 – Having looked at that data I am hopeful that all regions will go current in DV2017. However, I can’t be 100% certain of course, and I believe the highest risk is for the highest case numbers selectees (2nd draw) in Nepal and the highest case numbers in SA region. I can’t predict any final cutoffs, but both those cases have some cause for concern.
January 2, 2017 at 01:29
Please can u tell me if Eu29xxx with this info is a safe number to get an interview ? Thanks and all the best in 2017
January 2, 2017 at 01:31
January 2, 2017 at 16:48
I understand u but to be honest i dont know how to translate this graphic. Anyway, again, all the best for u and your family.
January 2, 2017 at 18:32
You don’t have to translate the graphic. You only had to read this – “Having looked at that data I am hopeful that all regions will go current in DV2017. “
January 2, 2017 at 01:30
our case no.2017AS00004558 from Nepal is it possible to get 2Nl please help us
January 2, 2017 at 01:48
It is certain.
January 2, 2017 at 02:30
What about the case number 2017AF3851X from Egypt?
January 2, 2017 at 04:51
Read the article above.
January 3, 2017 at 22:12
I too have the same question … I read all your articles since i knew i was selected in may… But this cut off numbers are for continents not for limited countries like Egypt … The wierd thing is that i know some people who were selected in septemper with case numers 25*** and i know someone who was selected in may with case number 40*** … It’s confusing because the people who were selected in the 2nd draw must have lower case numbers than who got selected in the first draw but it happened , so what do you think a safe number for Egypt not Africa
January 3, 2017 at 22:24
I have explained MANY times why some second draw numbers are like 25XXX. The numbers start where the country stopped – so for a country like Ghana (that gets stopped very early due to massive entries) a second draw case number would be less than 20000. It’s not confusing, not a mystery.
Now, about Egypt. I have no way to know how many Egyptians were selected in the second draw. So – I can’t predict a “safe number”. It really is “wait and see”.
January 9, 2017 at 18:52
I meant that both these numbers are in Egypt (40,000 in may and also 25,000 in september was also in Egypt) and i know many examples like that in Egypt not just one … Anyway i’m so gratful for you help and your tips , i subscribed for your website to be regularly updated by your posts , they are very helpful in understanding the DV lottery process , God bless you .
January 2, 2017 at 04:09
My case number is 57##
#how many chance i will get secound latter
Any idea ???
January 2, 2017 at 04:50
Read the article above!
January 2, 2017 at 12:10
i’m sorryn i red your article, my cn is AF98** , didn’t get the 2l, i’m afraid, i think i won’t get it ? can you tell me if i’ve some chances ? ( DS submited on 25 august)
January 2, 2017 at 16:26
You are only being delayed by your own late submission of the DS260. You will get the 2NL in a month or two.
January 2, 2017 at 16:37
I would be glad if you could answer my query.What’s the possibility of getting second letter with the case no 2017AS00006343 from Nepal .
January 2, 2017 at 16:41
Read the article.
January 2, 2017 at 18:05
I am one of DV2017 selectee with case number 2017AF00027***. I unlocked and resubmitted DS260 on october 29. I am now planning to change my address as my contract with the current address will be terminated soon. I will be living in the same city but different address.
1. Do I need to unlock DS260-form and update the address?
January 2, 2017 at 18:30
You can do, but you don’t have to – you can update at the interview.
January 2, 2017 at 22:50
Why Jan 1 Ceac File 2017 not published ?
January 2, 2017 at 23:59
I cannot extract the data because the government added a security measure (CAPTCHA).
January 3, 2017 at 00:44
Is SA 17XX a safe number or is there cause for concern?
January 3, 2017 at 05:45
I can’t be sure. Wait and see.
January 3, 2017 at 03:27
Hi Brit , is there à chance for this N° AF8XXX to be in the 2 draw?
Thanks a lot.
January 3, 2017 at 05:41
You are confused about the second draw so your question makes no sense. Your number is fine.
January 3, 2017 at 06:22
I think I do not know how to read the graphic..
The maximum case number of Asia is AS9087? But why the 15210 estimated selectees? And there are 1700+ selectees at the second draw, while i am in the first draw AS87xx, does that mean the 2nd draw selectees have lower case numbers because the maximum CN is AS9087?
i’m sorry if I sound stupid.
January 3, 2017 at 07:47
Each case accounts for the principal selectee and any derivatives (spouse and children). The derivatives are included in the 15210 number.
Your number must be one of the highest from the first draw. Most second draw cases would be Nepalese between 7500 and 9000
January 4, 2017 at 03:12
Thank you so much Brit.
I’m so sad about this, to have higher case number than that of those second draw selectees..
January 3, 2017 at 07:24
“I believe the highest risk is for the highest case numbers selectees (2nd draw) in Nepal .”
That means the highest case numbers selectees in 1st draw is safe.
My case number is AS66XX(1st draw), is it highest case number for Nepal?
Please Brit, what is the possibility of getting 2NL?
i have read your every blogs 4 to 5 times.
But i cannot picture out any conclusion for Nepal final cutoff. I cannot be relax on just wait and see.
Please Brit, its killing me. Why visa bulletin for nepal is increasing slowly?
You are doing excellent job for dv selectees. God bless you!
January 3, 2017 at 07:50
First of all. NO ONE can predict the outcome at this point. That is why I say “wait and see”. However, your number happens to be fine. Now relax.
January 4, 2017 at 03:27
Thank you so much brit.
I know no one can predict but your predication makes us relax.
You are doing great things for us
once again thank you so much sir.
January 3, 2017 at 12:54
They should not have published the 2nd draw(especially for Nepal) if it’s just to fool the people…
January 3, 2017 at 14:18
USCIS is revising the procedures for determining visa availability for applicants waiting to file for employment based or family sponsored preference AoS. Would you mind explain this with other words?! Thank you sm.
January 3, 2017 at 15:05
Fully explained here.
January 3, 2017 at 14:18
From this post can we conclude there is some chance to get second letter for the selectee who have highest case number in first draw from nepal???
January 3, 2017 at 15:03
January 4, 2017 at 00:22
Hello Simon, thank you for answering my question the other day. One other question. I just checked my dv2017 lottery application status after my interview in Ghana.Accra.. It still says ready for interview. Im so confused because i went for the imterview in November 9 of 2016 and still no visa issued. Do i need to go to the embassy or what should i do? They took my senior high school certificate and my son birth certificate .since then i haven’t heard anything. Please advise me.my case number is 2017AF000083xx
January 4, 2017 at 00:55
It simply means they haven’t updated CEAC. You must wait some more…
January 4, 2017 at 07:13
70**, nepal?? not the highest, is it??
January 4, 2017 at 15:24
January 3, 2017 at 23:37
Thank you for the post. My case number is AS73XX. I know you have mentioned that all 2017 cases could hopefully go current before the fiscal year ends, and we have to wait and see. However, since I’m doing AOS and according to “MOM’s” post that it could take 4 to 6 months to complete the AOS process including the wait for 2nl after they’ve received my AOS package, I’m worried that I won’t have enough time to complete the process by the end of 2017 fiscal year.
Do you have any opinion or advise for this?
Thank you so much!
January 4, 2017 at 01:01
Take advantage of early filing. You’ll have enough time.
January 4, 2017 at 01:23
Hie Brits trust you are well!Thank you so much for the guidance you have given me and others on this platform.I have settled with my family in the USA for a month now.I will definitely comeback to you via PayPal to give something.I am so grateful God Bless you.Thank you also for the career links you include on this platform. I have been called for a couple of interviews already.
Just a question.How long will it take for me to receive my green cards..i have paid for them on the 19th of September long before i migrated to the US.
Thank you sir
January 4, 2017 at 02:12
Congrats and welcome! It will take around 3 to 4 months to get the GC. In the meantime, your endorsed visa serves as proof of LPR status.
January 4, 2017 at 03:19
hi simon i have a question when you arrive to the usa the social security and green card you dont receive it imidialy
you have to wait few months can you work with out that documents?
January 4, 2017 at 03:26
You can start work almost immediately. The SSN arrives within 2 to 3 weeks.
January 4, 2017 at 03:21
sorry i didnt read what you wrote before
January 4, 2017 at 09:07
Hello Simon, thank you for all your help in this highly patient journey,
I have 3 questions:
1. If the estimation of Selectees in Europe is 30,204 and as you have told us the quota is around 18500 to 20000 visas, this means with a failure rate of 34%-39% there will be enough visas for all. How possible is this rate given the past data.
2. In 2016 the cut off number till March was 20800 and then it jumped on April to 24500 and on May to 28000 (current) with total 27000 selectees. In 2017 we are 1000 numbers behind and with 30204 selectees you think it is possible to go current around June?
3.how you have estimated the distinct cases for EU (16780)?
I’m second draw EU25XXX. Thanks, Nikos
January 4, 2017 at 15:20
1. That would be very likely. Hence my “current” speculation. Some are refused, but many don’t proceed – and that is why they over select.
2. Maybe. Don’t read anything into the pace.
3. In previous years I have been able to extract all the cases from CEAC (and have published that info on my site). So – I know exactly how many cases were found by the same max number in previous years. The density of cases is broadly similar year to year, so my assumption is pretty safe.
January 4, 2017 at 12:11
January 4, 2017 at 12:24
hello britismon i have one question what are the common interview question
January 4, 2017 at 15:04
Read some interview stories.
January 4, 2017 at 18:37
Mr. Simon: My case is SA16XX. have i some oportunity to interview? Thanks a lot!
January 4, 2017 at 18:52
You just have to wait and see…
January 4, 2017 at 21:37
I am reading the information above and I am a little bit confused of what the estimates explains. Does these numbers tell us the max selectees from the 1st letter and how many of those who’ve got the second and how many that there a left to get a 2nd letter or did I misunderstand every thing?
I am an selectee from EU it says Electees estimated apx 30 000 published selectees apx 28 000 and then lastly 2nd draw selectees estimated 2000+
Does that mean that 28 000 have got their second letter and there are apx 2000 selectees left to get it?
The reason I am asking is that I have case nr EU000052** I haven’t got my 2nd letter yet because I turned my application in July 27th and then reopened it (and turn it in again) October 14th. I am just trying to figure out my status and if there is a chance for me to even ge a 2nd letter.
Did I understand the description correctly or completely misunderstood everything?
January 4, 2017 at 21:44
This post has nothing to do with who has or hasn’t received a 2NL. This is to estimate the number of selectees that were selected (in both the 1st and 2nd draws combined). Your number is low (and current anyway) so this post doesn’t affect you. Once your DS260 is processed you will get the 2NL.
January 4, 2017 at 21:48
Okay, thank you for clarifying it to me and for your quick answer.
I appreciate it 🙂
January 5, 2017 at 10:12
Thanks Simon, you have been an oasis in this long trip.
January 5, 2017 at 15:40
I am winner of D.C. 2017
I have three questions
I have in the bank about 28000 $
Is it enough or I should put more money in my account ?
2- the account is joint account for me and my wife should I separate it or it’s ok?
3- my account in local Turkish bank not in international bank so should I change the bank or it doesn’t matter for them?
Thank you and hope to hear from you
January 5, 2017 at 16:09
1. Probably enough for a small family.
2. It’s OK
3. Doesn’t matter
January 7, 2017 at 06:09
i am from nepal.my case no. is 2017AS000065xx and DS-260 submitted on 2016 august 25.so i am very affraid about late submission. Please Brit, what is the possibility of getting 2NL and when it comes….plz help me …..i want to listen from your comment(blog)….thank you very much for wowsome work for us…..
January 7, 2017 at 17:25
The late submission won’t be a problem since your case will not be current until AFTER the DS260 is processed.
January 7, 2017 at 06:17
May I know your idea about this article? I know this is usual all ambassadors back USA in Inauguration Day. But, this time Trump mentioned there is no excuses for remaining in there embassies and all have to return (unlike the previous elections which both parties allowed some ambassadors remain in their embassy to finish the children school for example).
Do you think these changes would affect on Lottery process 2017 for example taking longer time to check cases or even cancel it? (I know you already talked about it, but since this is new, I am interested to know your idea based of the latest changes).
January 7, 2017 at 17:24
This affects ambassadors, not the work performed by the staff at the embassies.
January 8, 2017 at 02:28
January 7, 2017 at 16:21
about changing the address :- if I want to change the address I gave at the interview. What should I do?? That I buy ticket for the place I want to go now that’s my new address and explain at immigration or I must go to the first address and make a request at that immigration?? Please advise.
January 7, 2017 at 16:44
Go where you want. At the arrival airport you can change the address for them to send the GC.
January 7, 2017 at 21:26
God bless you.. thanks alot
January 7, 2017 at 22:05
Dear Simon our case is SA00001830. Do you it possible to get 2NL or its would be difficult?
January 7, 2017 at 22:16
Dear BritSimon, sorry because I wrote wrongly. I start again. I was selected for the DV2017 in the second chance. I am from Argentina. My case number is SA00001830. Do you think it is possible to get 2NL or it would be difficult?
I take the opportunity to ask if do you think it is necessary to apostil a criminal record document for the interview? Thanks for your help.
January 7, 2017 at 22:37
Your number is high, so there is some risk that your case doesn’t get a chance. No one can know for sure at this time – so you have to wait and see. I don’t know if your embassy require police certs to be apostatized. Check their instructions.
January 8, 2017 at 01:48
Thanks for your answer, related with the police certs is not clear in the instructions ;(
Do you think that Trump’s assumption can reduce the number of people to call?
Any argentinian is here? to share experience in the country.
January 8, 2017 at 05:14
There is o change for Trump.
January 8, 2017 at 12:20
What do you mean? There is NO change for Trump or any different idea? Sorry but I don’t understand and my english is not perfect. Thanks for your time again
January 8, 2017 at 14:40
No change for Trump affecting DV2017
January 8, 2017 at 05:08
I filled DS-260 stating the desire to process AOS, but looking at the time it takes to process AOS, my number might be current only in June or July,
I am thinking of switching to CP, my case number is AS6***. Do you think that it is doable and is there any negative to it ?
January 8, 2017 at 05:11
PLenty of people process AOS with cases that become current as late as September, so your fear is unfounded.
However, it is possible if you switch early enough (because DS260 for CP will take time to process).
January 8, 2017 at 05:37
I was reading some of the forums and saw that even case numbers current on October- February had to wait couple of months to get the interview letter. If my case number becomes current in June/July wouldn’t it take 4-5months to process ? Do they process it faster when it comes to the end of FY? Have there been cases where a DV lottery winner did not get an interview letter because of the FO ?
January 8, 2017 at 06:10
You are confusing AOS and CP. Like I said, your fear is unfounded.
January 8, 2017 at 08:21
Thank you for your prompt reply. My primary concern was that if my case number is current on later months like July/Aug or even September, will USCIS for sure be able to complete my case ? Have there been past incidents where AOSers did not even receive the interview letter before the end of FY ? Or did not receive there GC because of the processing in USCIS part ?
January 8, 2017 at 14:47
I already answered that. I said “Plenty of people….”
Calm down, relax, and learn about the early filing policy. You can see the memo in the immigration forum thread that you posted the same questions on. Look at the first post in that thread. You will have enough time.
January 8, 2017 at 07:43
Is there chance to get second letter up to 7500 from nepal?what do u expect?
January 8, 2017 at 14:50
I expect to get a lot of similar questions and to have to repeat my answer that is ” I don’t know, wait and see”.
January 8, 2017 at 14:14
And does it matter the 2nd letter by 1st or 2nd draw although case number is high…do clarify me sir.
January 8, 2017 at 14:39
The case number is what matters.
January 8, 2017 at 18:01
If you get approved in CP do you have to come to US before Sept 30th, or does the GC have to be received before Sept 30th?
January 8, 2017 at 18:23
Interviewed and approved by Sept 30.
January 8, 2017 at 18:32
So, does it mean that you can come back to the US after Sept 30th, in case you are approved ?
Have you heard of any cases being denied while processing CP ?
January 8, 2017 at 18:42
Yes, *obviously* if someone is approved on September 30th their entry to the USA will be after that date. Approved selectees have 6 months to enter (from the date of the medical).
Yes of course, some cases are denied processing CP. One advantage of AoS is higher chance of approval and some rights of appeal. Honestly, I don’t know why you are still asking about CP.
January 8, 2017 at 22:53
I had one last question, if we get a 2NL for CP interview, does it mean that our FBI background check has been successfully completed ?
January 9, 2017 at 01:22
Yes. It doesn’t mean the check is clear, but it is completed.
January 9, 2017 at 06:21
If we meet all the requirements
Educational and Medical as well as Police Reports, are there any other unforeseen circumstances in the past where the embassy has denied visa ?
Since the FBI background check has been completed can there be any chances of not getting the visa issued due to other US checks ?
January 9, 2017 at 06:34
Again, the fact that the FBI check is COMPLETE, does NOT mean it is CLEAR. Likewise, you might *think* your case meets the requirements, but not actually understand the requirements. So yes, some refusals come as a surprise.
The visa is never certain until it is in your hand.
January 9, 2017 at 00:12
I am a winner from EU at the 2nd draw. I submitted my forms just in 1 October because I found very late that in September was another allocation. My case number is 25XXX.
1.Do you think I have any chance to be scheduled for an interview? When you estimate will be that?
2. When will be released the February visa bulletin?
January 9, 2017 at 01:30
1. Yes – I can’t predict exactly – around May/June for the interview.
2. The VB is released between the 8th and the 15th every month.
January 9, 2017 at 02:20
Thank you for your advice God bless u.My questions, my sister she won Dv2017 last year and she interviewed last week .She is 19 years old and 10+3vocational collage In information technology,she couldn’t get the visa because they ask her work experince.Now she is very very sad she was Egger to come US and study. As an elder sister am worried about .is there any consideration for age bc she is 19 and she can’t get experience at this age but she won the lottery after she fulfil every thing because of work exp she lost a chance. And now she is very sad become hopels . Plz if u have any advice .
January 9, 2017 at 02:30
So as I understand it she did 10 years of school and 3 years of vocational training. They obviously excluded the vocational training – which would be a correct decision. The rules are inflexible. If she does not meet the requirement she cannot be issued a visa. There is no appeal process. I’m sorry – she should move on.
January 9, 2017 at 02:39
January 9, 2017 at 03:45
hello my case number is 2017AF68xx and i don’t receive yet the second letter
January 9, 2017 at 05:47
You probably submitted the DS260 late – correct?
January 9, 2017 at 19:30
hello BritSimon thanks for your answer yes i submitted in 22 november . this is a problem ?? what i should to do plz
January 9, 2017 at 06:23
So far what are your remarks on AS6*** cases for Nepal ? Do you think the numbers are still likely to be current, as I see that the numbers are growing at a very slow rate for Nepal ? Do you think that there are sufficient visas to meet my case number ?
January 9, 2017 at 06:24
I don’t think Nepal will be current, but AS6*** should be safe.
January 9, 2017 at 06:35
That is exactly my major concern, I have a low 6*** case number. And I am predicting that my number might be current Aug or September looking at the current Visa bulletins.
I have seen from the forum that AOS cases not adjudicated before Sept 30th will not get the GC no matter what the reason might be, either due to FBI background check or USCIS delays. Have you seen any cases like that in the past ?
January 9, 2017 at 14:51
You keep asking this same question over and over again. I have already told you what I consider to be safer. I explained why. You don’t seem to be listening at all. It’s getting frustrating.
Any case (CP or AOS) must be approved by September 30. If that deadline is not met the case is over.
You seem focused on FBI checks and you haven’t told me why – but I sense you have some concern about that. If so – the AOS is the way to go. I will explain why.
For CP cases, there is a period of time when the DS260 is processed. That includes various background checks through various government agencies. The background check might reveal some need for additional checks. If so the case is placed on AP (administrative processing). AP can last a few weeks or a few months. If the September 30 deadline passes, the case will not be approved once the checks are complete. The embassy cannot rush the checks once requested.
AOS procedures are different. You can file early (so if you are current in August you can start AOS in June). When you file, the background checks are started before the interview. There is a process to fasttrack the background checks if needed, though the FO won’t always agree to request that.
AOS has several advantages over CP. I know of thousands of CP cases that fail to process by September 30. I know of very few (only 1 or 2) AOS cases that failed to complete by the end of the year. I have even known cases that were current in September and DID NOT take advantage of early filing and STILL succeed by September 30th.
January 9, 2017 at 20:11
I have been reading the forum and this got me a little skeptical because most individuals had delays due to background checks. Personally, I have maintained a clean record and been in status while in the US. I appreciate your comments and your suggestions very much.
I just wanted to clear up some of the doubts that came to my mind.
January 9, 2017 at 14:19
2nd draw 500 additional selectee although there is already more selecteeee, does it matter more will get chance or just that is formality, Nepal
January 9, 2017 at 14:24
I explain my thoughts about Nepal above.
January 10, 2017 at 01:13
February visa bulletin is out , but you will have to google visa bulletin february 2017 as its still written coming soon if you go through the normal way
Here the link
January 10, 2017 at 02:16
I have seen that – thanks. I’m not sure if these numbers are final, so there is a chance they haven’t published the numbers because of changes to AF and AS region. However, it would not be a total surprise if they don’t increase those numbers as the backlog is clearing…
January 10, 2017 at 04:02
Just to let you know that the February VB is out (expand the year 2017 to see it, for some reason it does not appear in ‘home’ page).
January 10, 2017 at 06:14
January 10, 2017 at 04:04
OK, I see now you’ve already seen it…
January 10, 2017 at 11:08
1)is it possible to change the sponsor and his address on the interview ?
2)on my ds i did a mistake to tick on “yes” for having vaccin according US or having document for who attest that your vaccin is the same as USA require …is it possible just to have all vaccin required when i ll do exact to the physician or must i change it on my ds say NO i don’t have …and take vaccin to the physician ,i am scare to re-open again my ds koz my cn were current since november and i submit late my ds on september with case number AF89** what’s’ can i do please.
3)is it possible for a couple to have 2 sponsors ? I mean one sponsor for a man and one for a woman if no one of the sponsor can’t support both persons directly according to their salary? .
January 10, 2017 at 13:23
2. You will have any missing vaccinations at the medical. No need to unlock for that.
3. No. The sponsor either meets the income levels needed, or is useless.
January 10, 2017 at 13:37
Hi brit, can u plz tell m how much a sponsor need to be paidlike monthly in us$ before he can support father,mother and a baby of 2 years.
January 10, 2017 at 13:50
Fully explained here.
January 10, 2017 at 12:54
You wrote in a previous comment on this post that your thoughts were that Nepal would not be current by September. Do you have the same thoughts for SA region, given that both cases have the highest risk?
January 10, 2017 at 13:19
That is what is meant by “highest risk”. It’s not a certainty, its a possibility. A risk.
January 10, 2017 at 13:34
I understand that, what I meant was that I wanted to know if there’s a difference between Nepal and SA region. I want to know if your thoughts about Nepal were because it is a limited country or because it has a lot of selectees like SA.
Thanks for your quick response.
January 10, 2017 at 13:52
Nepal could be limited because it could hit the 7% country rule. SA could be limited because there are a lot of selectees for SA. As I explained before, it depends on where the SA 2nd draw selectees are from – and their success rate. The best thing is to “wait and see”.
January 15, 2017 at 22:58
Hi, my case is SA000015XX. Do you think I am safe? I applied yesterday for the DS260. Thanks!
January 16, 2017 at 01:21
The article above discusses this exact topic.