I’m really busy at work so I have not had very much more time to look at the CEAC data today. However, I do have some thoughts to share.
First of all – as some are beginning to realize – it is VERY hard to predict final cutoffs this far away. Many things can happen between now and the end of the year. So – let’s take a look at the next VB and once we see that progress we can see how many interviews are being scheduled at the various embassies.
I also want to remind everyone that I cannot be 100% accurate, because I am not in charge of the DV program. In DV2015 for instance there were case numbers up to 89,000 – that year was massively over selected. I spent months trying to explain why I was sure we would see a lot of people miss out – and many just would not see the logic. Leading up to the final VBs I was convinced that AF region could hit 55,000, but I was concerned about numbers higher than that. In the final VB however, KCC inexplicably stopped AF region at 50,000. Months later I came to understand that my calculations were mathematically correct. There were enough visas for AF to hit the number I felt was safe, but the decision was taken to underfill AF that year, and globally also – and they missed the quota in AF. So – it just goes to show – we need to be careful about predictions.
Now – in talking about DV2015, that brings me to my point. Both DV2017 and DV2016 were underselected years. In DV2016 they only issued 46.7k visas because they underselected and then in DV2017 they underselected and then announced more winners in a second draw. Even with the second draw they still had far fewer selectees in than we have in DV2018, so we seem to be overselected. For that reason I prefer to compare this year to DV2015.
There are several ways to try and estimate final cutoffs – but there are many factors we have to take into account. Here are those factors listed.
- Quota for the region (set by a formula defined in last)
- Selectees numbers
- Starting derivative rate
- Response rate (some people don’t process their win)
- No show rate (some people don’t show up for the interview)
- Derivative growth rate (newborns and marriages increase the selectee numbers)
- Success rate (how many people get refused, or go on AP and cannot be approved in time)
- Processing limits such as the 7% rule
- Rule changes or political and economic influences – real and not real examples for DV2018 being:
- Travel Ban
- Trump is a moron so it puts people off living in the USA
- The economy crashes
I’m sure some people are more confused at what all that means – but let me give a MADE UP illustration. Let me say again – this is JUST AN ILLUSTRATION.
Assume I have case number AF45000. Because of the CEAC data and holes explanation in my last post you now know that there are NOT 44999 cases in front of you. Holes mean there are less cases than that – in fact in DV2018 there are 29336 cases in front of AF45000. So – already you are 15000 places in front of where you thought you were.
However, every case signifies the selectee AND any derivatives they have. They might have a spouse and 7 children, or they might be single. Until they are scheduled, we don’t know. So – we take the number of selectees in the published selectee numbers (49392) and divide by the number of actual cases in the CEAC data (32541). That means we have an average of 1.52 people for every case in Africa as a starting derivative number. So – by taking our example of 29336 cases in front of me at AF45000 and multiplying by the derivative rate (1.52) I can assume there are 44590 people in front of me. That is the length of the queue.
Now – because the formula for the quota is published, we know that the DV2018 quota for AF is about 21600 (based on 50,000 global quota).
OK – those were real numbers – now we move to guesswork. Again – ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY!
However, every time one of the selectees gets married, or has a baby, The queue in front of me get’s longer. That is the derivative growth rate. It varies by country/region – but for AF I have seen growth rates of over 20% – meaning the starting derivative rate becomes a rate of about 1.85 instead of 1.52. So now the queue is over 54,000 people!
Now – we need to know how many of those cases will be “non responses” or “no shows”. As desperate as I may be for my interview at case AF45000, there is some percentage of cases where people either never file their DS260 to say they want to process their case OR they do submit the DS260 but just never show up for the interview. In previous years that non response and now show rate has meant as many as half the queue don’t want their chance. So – maybe there are only 27000 people actually in the queue.
Not all of those 27,000 will be able to pass their interviews. Some will be unable to clear AP procedures before the end of the year, some will not meet the requirement, some will have lied on their eDV of “forgotten” they were married when they entered. The success rate is the rate of how many interviews actually get issued. It varies GREATLY by country – for instance in Ghana refusals are more likely than approvals. In Egypt you have to work very hard to get refused. So – then it becomes a matter of what countries those 27000 people are from. If they were all from Ghana I would be certain to get a chance, but if they are all from Egypt I don’t have a chance at all of getting one of the 21600 places.
See how complex that is? It is VERY HARD to predict the final numbers accurately. VERY HARD.
Now – to take all those into account takes time and extensive data from previous years. To an extent, some of it is guesswork. So – even if we really understand all the factors we STILL can’t be exactly accurate in predictions.
So – let me explain one quick way of doing the math.
Instead of trying to calculate all these numbers together I could look at how many cases were made current in a previous year to get within the quota. So – let’s do that, and give some other useful data.
For this method I will use DV2015. That was the first year the DS260 was used, it was over selected (like this year), and it is relatively recent. DV2016 and DV2017 are not good models because they were under selected. In underselected years some “odd” stuff happens. For instance, in DV2017 SA region received 1830 visas. That is over 400 visa MORE than the region’s quota for that year. That means SA took unused visas from other regions which will ONLY happen in an underselected year (like DV2016 and DV2017). DV2018 is NOT an underselected year.
OK – having said that – here are some numbers based on CEAC data from DV2015 and DV2018.
To explain, I list the quota from DV2018, published selectees per region and the number of cases for the region from the CEAC data. Using that, I have calculated the DV2018 starting derivative rate.
For DV2015 I give the TOTAL cases, and the final cutoff number. Then the cases that were in each region UNDER the cutoff and the number of visas issued. The final column (raw cases per visa issued) is a quick (approximate) method to apply the non response rate no show rate, derivative rate, response rate success rate and so on. By using ratio multiplied by the quota, we get to a ROUGH prediction of how many cases will go current in each region – ****ASSUMING**** all other things are equal. That is a BIG assumption – and an incorrect one for various reasons, but applying that method gives us the following numbers.
AF – 46600
EU – 33000
AS – 9600
OC – 1300
SA -1365
Now – I consider these LOW NUMBERS. These are what I would call safe – to a lesser or greater extent per region. In reality there are a number of factors that this method does not take into account.
AF region seems like a sensible safe number. It is broadly similar to my earlier thoughts. So – I consider that a good “lower number” range for safe numbers. That does NOT mean the number won’t be higher, but I would be surprised if it ended lower than 46600.
EU number is much lower than I would expect to be the final number. This year three countries (Russia, Albania and Turkey) experience a HUGE increase of selectees compared to previous years. That suggests to me that agents were somehow involved in registering entries. When that happens, the number of non responses increase, refusals increase and so on, because agents typically make things worse, not better – especially when their motivation is greed. Added to that the case density in EU is very low. So – from 33000 to 37000 for instance, there are only 1444 cases. So – it is not hard to imagine the number being MUCH higher than 33000. I would be SHOCKED if the number was anything like 33000 – I still expect the final number to be in the 36/37 range (a little reduced from my earlier assessment since max case numbers are actually lower than previously reported).
AS region is very affected by the travel ban. Iran, Syria and Yemen are all under the ban – accounting for nearly 40% of the total selectees in the region. Those selectees cannot be disregarded from the DV lottery. Some of them will not be subject to the ban because of dual citizenship and other reasons. Because of that, KCC can’t simply ignore those 6000 selectees. BUT I don’t know how KCC will treat the shortfall in visas being issued because of the travel ban impact. So – I would pretty much suggest we totally IGNORE the prediction for AS region. There is just no way to know what will happen. So – WAIT AND SEE is the only sensible answer.
For OC region I still believe the final cutoff will be between 1400 and 1500. The method above produced a lower number, but visas issued per 100 cases in OC region is low anyway – so the method could easily be wrong.
SA region again strikes me as low for the same reasons as OC. In addition, this year has a new country, so that has altered the game somewhat. However, the quota will be enforced this year, unlike DV2017, because there will not be spare visas coming from other regions.
I will be spending some time refining these numbers, they are best guesses at the moment, using one particular (approximate) method. NO ONE should bet the farm on these numbers. I could be wrong – just as I have been before.
Now finally let me just say, I provide this analysis not as numbers written in stone, but rather to allow analyitical people to understand what is going on. Many will be lost and confused by this whole post. I understand that, but I get frustrated when someone doesn’t even bother to TRY to understand and just wants ,e to tell them whether their number is safe. I expect people to use their own common sense – and of course feel free to calculate your own numbers using your own methods.
January 6, 2018 at 17:59
Sory brit i dont understand very well english. Does that mean for Eu cn 33k are safe? What about cn above 35k?
January 6, 2018 at 18:07
All my pages can be translated.
January 6, 2018 at 18:11
This mean that EU348** isn’t safe ??? OMG this Is my worst day ???
January 6, 2018 at 18:12
Please read the post all the way through.
January 6, 2018 at 18:15
Yes I understand that you hope that the number will be higher but all my hopes with this post are crashed because you are never wrong ??
January 6, 2018 at 19:23
Nonsense.
January 6, 2018 at 18:58
Moni, I also have a CN of 345xx. Don’t be upset, things will be fine. Have faith!
January 6, 2018 at 20:32
Let’s apply patience.
January 6, 2018 at 18:05
EU 33000 that would be pretty good ? Thanks Brit for explaining again and again ?
January 6, 2018 at 18:16
Thank you brit its well understood but i just wany to ask when the VBS for the month of march will be released because previously it usually comes between the 5th of every month buy until now nothing yet waiting on your response thanks.
January 6, 2018 at 18:40
Thanks Brit for your elaborate posts. You made me want to start a data analysis course so badly. EKANEM the VB is normally out by 15th not 5th. Read the info on the site again.
January 6, 2018 at 19:22
By the 15th.
Every. single. month.
January 6, 2018 at 22:23
8-15 not 5th
January 7, 2018 at 07:46
No, you wrong .VBs always come out from the 8-15 in each month so, just be patient it will soon be out .
January 6, 2018 at 18:33
Dear Sir,
Thank you for helping us always
1. my sponserer is an aunty. she is a pensioneer.she has an AMERICAN passport. for my visa interview she gave me copies of her passport,2015 W2 form, 1099 form and tax return form.along with an affidavit.She has lost her original documents of the above mentioned forms except the pass port.& the affidavit.For my visa will the photo copies are sufficient?
2. My sponserer is not showing any deposits behalf of us.so that we are showing our assets. I mentioned them below .savings account 22000 USD ,our car and two plots of lands and three houses.they are worth more than 95000 USD.also we have a very good monthly income.I wanted to know the fact that if we show an extra income will that be helpful for us to obtain the visa or not
.
3. For the time being my sponserer has come to my country.since last two months she was here.she is expecting to leave thecountry with us when we get our visas.Will it be o.k for her to be here during our visa interview? .Has she to show her return tickets on our visa interviews?
4. At the moment my husband is staying abroad.He works there.he is expecting to come to his mother land 20 daysbefore the visa interview.He will come for one months holiday,and if we get visa he hopes to go to his working place and get him self resign from his job .So that both of us will be able to go to USA together. As he is on leave, if we get the visas soon it wont be a problem,but if it gets delayed more than two weeks my husband wont be able to report to his work as he is not having his passport.If such a thing happens what is the steps that we have to follow?
5. Acording to my case no AS(48XX)I expect that my interview will be on March or April.CEAC site shows that I am “at NVC” status .I have to insert some detaills to my DS 260 application.For that I have to unlock that , as the interviews are on process will that unlocking DS 260 will affect my interview date? That is , I wanted to know will there be any delay in my interview?
January 6, 2018 at 19:21
1. Yes
2. Your income in the country you are leaving is not useful to show.
3. Her current location is unimportant.
4. Surely that question is something you could decide for yourself.
5. Normally no delay.
January 6, 2018 at 18:42
Thank you for all of this. im wondering if you might have some knowledge to impart. If we are granted visa’s but my teen derivative wants to complete a university degree before moving ( will still be under 21 upon graduating) is there any consideration given in those circumstances? Ie we both activate visa’s but don’t relocate permanently until after graduation or I (applicant) move and derivative can move later?
I can’t find an answer in any official info. Thanks so much
January 6, 2018 at 19:18
The FAQ provides an answer.
https://britsimonsays.com/faq/timeline-of-first-entry-and-absences-from-usa/
January 6, 2018 at 18:44
Hello Brit,
Interesting stuff. I have a different question however, one that really stresses me out. In case Trump gets some part of his immigration agenda in exchange for DACA, he could get a bill through to eliminate the lottery in the next couple of months since it is a concession the Democrats are willing to make. The thought of the diversity visa program ending a couple of months before I interview really scares me and worries me to the point where I cannot collect my thoughts. Who should I ask about what will happen to the rest of us waiting for an interview if congress passes a measure like this?
January 6, 2018 at 19:16
The DV process is controlled by laws. Those laws don’t get changed overnight and without notice periods. DV2018 is unaffected.
January 6, 2018 at 21:43
This is the sweetest thing I’ve heard in a long time. The one comment that has brought life to my increasingly hopeless self. Thanks Brit!
January 6, 2018 at 18:49
Just wanted to thank for the analysis you made. You was right that we have to learn to be patient. With the advancement of the FY predictions will be easier.
January 6, 2018 at 18:50
Hello Brit! Does the overelection of Albania mean that case numbers above 22*** selected on the Albania country might not get a data interview due to the visa limitation per country?
January 6, 2018 at 19:15
It depends on the response/approval rate – and since things are different this year – I don’t know.
January 6, 2018 at 18:57
From the post I’m somehow safe with 2018Af29xxx I guess
January 6, 2018 at 19:35
Wow!!! It is really getting hot in here. AF46600 and I am just next door, AF467**. Does it mean I should put this DV issue to bed or I should still be hopeful, Mr. Brit?
Thks a great deal for what you are doing for us.
January 6, 2018 at 19:39
Did you read the whole article?
January 6, 2018 at 20:25
I did read the whole article, sir. Just that I feel like I “over understood” the article (that i still have a great chance) so i just want to be sure.
January 6, 2018 at 21:23
OK – so if you did read the article you will have read that there is still a lot of uncertainty. No need to freak out. Relax and be patient.
January 6, 2018 at 21:45
“Relax and be patient.” Got you, Sir, and thanks for your patience.
January 6, 2018 at 19:43
Dear sir can you please tell me nepal safe case number sir? plz tell me sir
January 6, 2018 at 21:33
Nepal will cutoff somewhere between 6500 and 7000.
January 6, 2018 at 19:49
Hi Brit.
The only thing that I dont understand is why in years under selected KCC give more visas than when is overselected in that case could be the same amount of visa (of course difference for derivatives and so on)
So less case number more visas and more case numbers less visas.
Thanks
January 6, 2018 at 21:33
The formula I mentioned gives the quota based on 50,000.
Let’s say there were three regions, A B and C, and the quota (in thousands) was 25k, 20k and 5k. In an underselected year the top two countries may only get to 23k and 18k. In that case region C could use the unused visas from region A and B and therefore we would see that region get MORE than the 5k quota – so perhaps would get 7k.
On the other hand if the first two regions hit their quota, there is no pot of unused visas for region C to use, so in that case, they will only get their quota.
The point is, SA did very well in DV2017, benefitting from unused visas but you should not expect SA to get as many visas in DV2018.
January 6, 2018 at 21:37
Oh now I get it. Thanks
January 7, 2018 at 15:52
Hello Brit thanks for your análisis
Using just common sense if pre selectees for SA where mich more than last year, 4995 vs 3000 aprox
It should mean that they are thinking on giving much more visas than 2017 or not??
If it’s not the case what was the reason for such a high number of pre approve cases ??
January 7, 2018 at 16:13
No it does not mean that. The visas are limited by law. In some years they overselect. I don’t know why, they just do. It means some people will miss out – just as they did in DV2015, DV2014 and other years.
January 7, 2018 at 16:18
Thanks but that over selection should mean more visas than lower selection years
At least for common sense?
January 6, 2018 at 20:02
hi brit , What about the number AF35xxx
January 6, 2018 at 21:26
Read the article!
January 6, 2018 at 20:29
Hi Brit, now that we have the ceac data and we can see that there is still high density for AF upto 22000 does this mean still slower progression for AF for the next few months. Does Your previous analysis of slight increase in Marchand wider increase in April vbs still count? Thanks.
January 6, 2018 at 21:25
We will see. The next VB will be published in days. It’s like the weatherman. They can tell you what the weather will be like tomorrow with pretty good accuracy, but asking what the weather is like 2 and 3 months from now is a lot harder. So – PATIENCE is the best approach.
January 8, 2018 at 11:22
Would have loved to know Brits thoughts on this as well… waiting is a tough game… Oh well, a couple more days 🙁
January 6, 2018 at 20:29
Hello, where do regional quota numbers come from?
January 6, 2018 at 20:36
As mentioned in the article, there is a formula described in law that involves the population of every country eligible to enter. A member (DV4Roger) kindly followed the process step by step and gave the numbers.
January 6, 2018 at 20:38
Thanks. Are they exact numbers or kinda elastic?
January 6, 2018 at 21:51
In past years the 50k limit has been elastic. Since the quotas are in fact percentage splits, if the global quota goes above 50k, then the quotas can rise too – BUT we cannot rely on them allowing more than the 50k.
The reason the 50k itself has been somewhat elastic in the past is because the original DV lottery allowance was 55,000 visas, and the NACARA program was allowed to take 5000 of those, leaving a practical limit of 50k for DV. In reality a few past years have borrowed back from the NACARA allocation. BUT that flexibility seems to have ended now since DV2017 hit a VERY sudden brick wall at 50,000.
January 6, 2018 at 22:01
Oh and to pick up on your other point – yes – we do need to continue scraping. We have many months to go – and the long range forecasts are never as accurate as the short range ones.
January 6, 2018 at 20:40
Bonsoir Brit, merci pour votre analyse. je veux savoir selon vous quand est-ce que le CN 2018AF26xxx pourrait être programmé.
Une fois encore, merci.
January 6, 2018 at 21:43
Attend et regarde.
January 8, 2018 at 08:20
Merci Simon
January 6, 2018 at 20:50
je voulais dire selon votre analyse
January 6, 2018 at 21:01
Dear. Simon from this article i can understand that Africa may be not less than 46000.
from your experience that i trust in it are U thought Egypt 22000 is safe?
Are Egypt cut off number as Africa cut off or around it 46000?
Really thanks for Your Help
January 6, 2018 at 21:42
The problem with predicting Egypt is that I do not know the max case number for Egypt. It is one of the countries limited in the draw – but I don’t know where. Now – it is also a country that has a lot of selectees and a very high rate of success. So – it is one of the two countries (the other being Nepal) that has got close to the 7% limit. That means it might be stopped early (before all Egypt cases are interviewed), but I cannot guess when that will happen – so “wait and see”.
January 6, 2018 at 22:34
oh Simon stop early mean cut off less than 22000 it is horrible but from the previous years cut off not talk place less than 25000. this year is different from the previous
Are u thought the next VB about 2000 ?
January 7, 2018 at 00:01
I have not thought about the next VB, no.
January 7, 2018 at 09:17
HI Brit are u predict that Egypt cut off may be less than 25000 althought that there are alot of cases up to 25000 and this not take place at any of previous years
January 7, 2018 at 16:42
I haven’t said that. I don’t know the max case number for Egypt.
January 6, 2018 at 21:04
Hi Brit.
What must we say about the CN bigger than that 37k-38k ?
Have no chance of interviews ?
We would like some more analysis for the big CN for the EU
I appreciate your think.
January 6, 2018 at 21:39
What more can I say?? We have SEVEN months of VBs to go. Let’s wait and see.
January 6, 2018 at 21:08
Hello Mr BritSimon,
I helped in the data scraping a bit .. only 123 entries .. but I’ll help more if needed ..
I know this question is a bit silly .. I have case number between AF345** .. I want to know what month my interview will be?
Just a guess .. I know it’s hard to guess and I’m patience ..
January 6, 2018 at 21:37
Approximately June/July/August
January 6, 2018 at 21:19
Brit where can find this formula for SA?
“Now – because the formula for the quota is published, we know that the DV2018 quota for AF is about 21600 (based on 50,000 global quota).”
Thanks
January 6, 2018 at 21:36
In my article I provided the quota for SA – 1500.
January 6, 2018 at 21:43
Brit I am very sorry for this question, but I have a lot of number in my head and I Apples and oranges
When you said 1500. Are you talking about case number 2018SA1500 or 1500 total visas issued for SA region
Please sorry again for this question
January 6, 2018 at 21:57
I think your effort on the CAPTCHAS earns you the right to ask some qualifying questions! 🙂
The 1500 is QUOTA – meaning available visas. That includes derivatives.
January 6, 2018 at 22:09
LOL. So I have more chance ?
The people who change status how I can get in the formula?
January 6, 2018 at 22:13
Do you mean adjustment of status (AOS) cases? They are counted toward the quota, but are not updated in CEAC. However, there are only about 1000 AOS cases out of the 50,000, so it is not a big number.
January 6, 2018 at 21:42
Dear. Simon from this article i can understand that Africa may be not less than 46000.
from your experience that i trust in it are U thought Egypt 22000 is safe?
Are Egypt cut off number as Africa cut off or around it 46000?
Really thanks for Your Help
January 6, 2018 at 21:58
I just answered this question a few minutes ago.
January 6, 2018 at 21:50
Hello folks,
I know that this article probably is an ice cold water bucket on our heads – myself also. But i didn’t expect that data we scrapped last days would be final and provide information about exact numbers. My CN is EU33xxx and it’s hard to read that there may be just few numbers not enough to get current. If anyone feels the same – c’mon let’s don’t give up. For sure Brit has huge knowledge but those numbers are only very rough guesses. Holes we’ve found out are only the begining. What is important now – we still have work on scrapping. As you can read above there are many factors which Britt cannot predict, probably no one can. But we can update information and help make those analysis more accurate each month the further process go. Don’t give up and don’t loose hope if the article above made you sad. All we can do is “wait and see” – sorry Britt for using your text but it’s true :), but let’s not seat idly, use your time and do some scrapping while waiting. I don’t know if current over 6k Captchas available is important, but i’m going to scrap some 🙂 Wish you all the best… 🙂
January 6, 2018 at 21:54
I’m really quite surprised that you and another person are taking the 33k number seriously. I don’t, and I thought I made that clear in the article. I obviously didn’t make that clear enough. A stop at 33XXX would be a HUGE shock to me. I REALLY don’t think that will happen.
January 6, 2018 at 22:20
Britt, if I took 33k number seriously – I wouldn’t be writing what I wrote above. I don’t say goodbay everyone, thx for time spent here, and thank you Britt for awesome job because 33k is cuttof, so no chance 🙂 I’m doing some my own analysis – not as good as yours, but i know how many uncertainties there are. We can end up this FY with status current for EU but we can finish in september with CN below 30k if there are many 10 persons families for example 🙂 and response rate may get much higher so it will equalize even the density drop – to many variables to be sure of anything 🙂 That’s why I’m asking people not to lose hope if some already are losing, those are rough guess numbers. As we will go further and will have more data you, everyone of us who wants and know how to do some basic analysis will be able to do it better and more accurate than now. Those numbers above can change – for higher, for lower and I expect that everyone who comes here and reads here will still put his effort – scrapping, own thoughts – whatever it will be. It’s not over yet, we are barely not even half way – everything can change for better or for worse. I hope everyone will come here and add his own brick, scrapping being simplest one but very important. Folks – there still job to do – let’s do it – let’s not only ask questions when will my interview be, or is my number safe – this way (scrapping – not asking :)) we can help each other buch better.
And Britt – I’m really surprised that YOU took my words so litterally. There is nowhere I said I give up, because 33k is final cutoff for EU, because Britt said so… :). Ofcourse it’s alway a bit sad thing to read those rough numbers knowing that those are so close, but as i mention only a little bit sad. To many variables 🙂 Let’s the fun begin… Every month will be hotter – I like it… 🙂 And again thanks for what you do here…
January 7, 2018 at 00:07
Glad you are not too concerned.
January 6, 2018 at 22:14
Hey Simon,
Thank you for your detailed analysis. I’m glad that our scrapping is being useful for something.
Also i can’t prevent being upset as an EU382xx selectee. Things are too risky for me.
I’ll keep following your posts and helping your scrapping project, to the end.
Cheers.
January 6, 2018 at 22:17
Yes you are a little at risk. But odd things happen. The density at high case numbers in EU is very low. 37000 to 38200 is 288 cases – that’s before non responses, no shows, refusals and so on. So – it’s not crazy to imagine numbers going higher than expected at the last minute. DV2014 was exactly like that for EU.
January 6, 2018 at 22:22
There’s nothing to do except waiting. We’ll see.
“Wait and see.” 🙂
January 6, 2018 at 22:38
And that is the spirit! Thanks – every outcome is possible 🙂 Let’s keep working.
January 8, 2018 at 18:27
how you account the cases , you said 37000 to 38200 is 288 cases, pls show me how :p
January 8, 2018 at 18:36
You can download the csv file that Xarthisius has made available. I open that file in Excel, remove the holes, and select/count the cases.
January 6, 2018 at 23:09
Hi Brit,
Thank you so much for the post. For my understanding, AS region’s prediction (9600) ignoring the travel ban factor, so does that mean we can assume 9600 is the cutoff number without the travel ban, and the number will be much higher is there is a travel ban factor?
Can we determine the travel ban factor by this month’s visa bulletin numbers? Since the travel ban affected 40% of selectees in AS region and starting in Dec 2017, we will likely to see the impact in this month’s visa bulletin numbers.
thanks,
J.H.
January 6, 2018 at 23:58
What I am saying is we don’t know how the travel ban will affect the numbers. So – “wait and see”.
January 6, 2018 at 23:28
Hi Brit, thanks once more for the analysis. i have this lil concern, please help me understand if u can. my case number is 2018AF00006673 and am in the US. i file my i 485 in September 2017, and have done my finger print aswell. Do u think i will be interview? if i will, when do u think i can expect to be interviewed. Thanks Brit.
January 6, 2018 at 23:56
I have no way to predict processing speed of an individual AOS case. Patience.
January 6, 2018 at 23:32
My case number is 326** I have a high school degree I have a sponsor I submitted my ds 260 may 19 do I look safe thank you sir
January 6, 2018 at 23:54
Always quote year/region. But also, please read the article because I think your answer is there.
January 7, 2018 at 00:00
326**af2018 I do not understand the post well I will appreciate your answer to me thank you
January 7, 2018 at 00:09
The post reiterates what I have told you in the past. Your case number is ***OBVIOUSLY*** safe.
January 7, 2018 at 00:12
Thank you sir I have a big respect for you
January 7, 2018 at 00:10
Hi Simon,
Hope all is well.
Q1. I have made minor mistake such as not remembering the exact dates of places i lived in since 16 yrs old of age . would that be a problem if i have put estimated dates?
Q2. For my work experience, i have again put up estimated dates. eg. 1st job Jan 2005 -Feb 2007 Next job Feb 2007 – dec 2007. Specifically the month and day are my concern as i dont remember exactly so again would that be a problem?
Q3. Unnoticed Minor mistakes on DS260 would that cause a denial of visa?
Q4. Not able to get a police certificate from a country where you no longer reside would that cause denial of visa?
A. Certain countries require you to be present in the country for them to provide you a PCC. What do you do in such cases where you can’t get a PCC ?
Appreciate your support and help and many thanks Simon.
Aqib
January 7, 2018 at 00:14
1. No
2. No
3. Not usually unless they are so numerous as to create suspicion of fraud.
4. Yes, UNLESS the reciprocity page says police certs are not available from that country for people no longer in the country. Follow the reciprocity page instructions.
January 7, 2018 at 13:31
Hi Simon,
Thank you for your prompt reply.
The reciprocity page for UAE says the following:
“Available only if applicant is physically present in the UAE.
Fees:
Document Name:
Issuing Authority:
Special Seal(s) / Color / Format:
Issuing Authority Personnel Title:
Registration Criteria:
Procedure for Obtaining: Police certificates may be obtained by any person, regardless of nationality, by personally appearing at the Central Police Headquarters located in the emirate of residence or former residence. When appearing to request a police certificate, the applicant should provide recent photographs, a letter from the requesting authority, the date of residence in the emirate, and their passport.
Certified Copies Available:
Alternate Documents:
Exceptions:
Comments: Not available by mail. Post recommends that consular officers waive the general requirement to obtain police certificates unless the applicant lives in the UAE.”
Q1. Based on what is mentioned in the reciprocity page of UAE, do i still need a police certificate from UAE? My wife lived all her life in Dubai and i have only lived there for about 1.5 yrs. We no longer live there. Kindly let us know what we should do.
Many thanks for your support Simon.
Aqib
January 7, 2018 at 16:16
If you are not physically present you are not expected to obtain the police cert.
January 7, 2018 at 19:37
Hi Simon,
Hope all is well.
What do i say if i am asked at the interview as to why i do not have the PCC for UAE ?
Many thanks Simon.
Aqib
January 7, 2018 at 20:25
Print the reciprocity page and tell the truth.
January 7, 2018 at 01:53
Wow this year will indeed be a thrill for south america ..my number is amost close to 1500 and i am now thinking considerating 2015 it might no longer be ad safe
January 7, 2018 at 02:22
Is 1500 total visa issued for SA region. Not to 2018SA1500 case number
January 7, 2018 at 02:40
Hello Brit,
2018AS8895 is safe? please replay me
January 7, 2018 at 03:51
Read the article!
January 7, 2018 at 05:38
Brit i don’t know complete English knowledge,i cant unable to understand complete pragraph and my country is not travan ban country.,and i am From Srilanka,
can you tell me is this safe or risk ?
2018AS8895
January 7, 2018 at 09:54
Yes you are safe ( ow oyage number eka safe)
January 7, 2018 at 10:18
Hey saj where r u from ?
January 7, 2018 at 14:35
From Sri Lanka . (Matara)
January 7, 2018 at 15:53
Saj what is your case no?
January 7, 2018 at 10:41
hi sara I also srilanka my case no AS85xx
January 7, 2018 at 03:45
hi brit am dv winner af 48xxx it’s bad news there is no chance for interview
January 7, 2018 at 03:47
It doesn’t mean that at all. You just have to wait and see.
January 7, 2018 at 06:12
I have a feeling this years AF cutoff will be above 50,000….wait n see..thanks for the heads up Brit…looking forward to the next VB.
January 7, 2018 at 06:51
Africa will go current my friend. All past dv lotteries when the number of selectees in AF is below 50k, it normally go current
January 7, 2018 at 16:53
You are welcome to your own “logic”.
But let me ask you this. IN two years when there are different densities. One year has 30,000 cases below 50,000 and the other year has 45000 cases below 50,000. Will both years get to 50,000?
January 7, 2018 at 07:02
At first I was upset cause I thought you ignored my question on the forum,….but now I see this excellent and in-depth analysis answers all my doubts, you even used my case number as a case study, couldn’t ask for more. Thanks for all your efforts,…and I remind people here, Britsimon does all this out of pure altruism. You should be grateful and help him by trying to read, re-read and fully assimilate his thoughts,…and stop asking stupid questions.
I think my number will probably go current by September,….still have 6 months left before starting to gather papers.
January 7, 2018 at 08:10
Hi Brit. Thank you for all.
They (congres) will cancel dv lottery. This month they’ll vote. What do you say about it? I am DV2018 winner and my case number 26k from EU
January 7, 2018 at 16:45
Even if they do it doesn’t impact DV2018
January 7, 2018 at 09:49
Hello brit,Do you think this month in March will exceed the number of 20,000 for Africa with the end of the holiday and the New Year
January 7, 2018 at 16:38
I have said I am simply going to let the VB speak for itself. It will be released soon. Patience.
January 7, 2018 at 11:05
Hi Sir;
Thanks for your hard work. My case no is 2018AS67xx from Afghanistan I have few questions.
1,Expected date for my interview ?
2. While checking my case status It shows that list the six steps you must take before NVC can schedule your visa interview appointment. what dose it means.
3.I have submitted DS 260 on late May and I prepared my documents for interview .I did not fill any other form and did not submit my documents anywhere else. but there I read somewhere about sponsor forms, accounts and so on.recently NVC .please tell me if I need to do anything.
January 7, 2018 at 11:46
Dear Mr. Saeedi,
Trust this note finds you well. Please drop me a message to the e-mail [email protected]. we are from same region. we can help each other to know better to process.
Best Wishes,
Abdul Hadi
January 7, 2018 at 16:35
1. Wait and see
2. Ignore them.
3. No – nothing more until you prepare for the interview.
January 7, 2018 at 11:31
Hello Brit my number is 2018Af42××× i would like to open my ds260 and add my newborn.is it safe since amnot married?if it is how do i unlock it?thanks alot
January 7, 2018 at 16:34
Yes.
https://britsimonsays.com/faq/how-do-i-unlock-my-ds260/
January 7, 2018 at 16:34
And in context of Nepal what could be the final numbers.
January 7, 2018 at 17:00
Read my other recent articles.
January 7, 2018 at 17:30
I have seen those..after the ceac data analysis what are your predictions..No change in your thought. I am in a f1 visa status..and my second letter will be coming in the middle of the semester.. and I should be back to Nepal as I made the interview location in my home country…..will that effect my interview…in any way
January 7, 2018 at 17:42
My recent articles gave a precise final cutoff range. You must have already read that – I have nothing more to add to that.
As for your other question – it is not clear what you are asking.
January 7, 2018 at 18:49
I am in United States as a international student. I chose to be interviewed in Nepal while filling DS-260. According to recent progression in VB, it can be estimated that my case number would be current in around April. That means I have to leave to Nepal for the interview in the middle of semester. Will that effect my interview
January 7, 2018 at 20:26
The people scheduling the interviews don’t know anything about the timing of your semester. So YOU can decide what to do.
January 7, 2018 at 20:11
Please Mr. Brit, considering the fact that there are still a lot of uncertainties in this year’s DV, 2018, should we still expect an UPDATE ARTICLE from you, perhaps, on final numbers Or that’s it about final numbers?
Thanks
January 7, 2018 at 20:21
As I have said many times, these forecasts are very uncertain when there is so much time remaining – so yes, over the coming months we may revise the numbers as we know more.
January 7, 2018 at 20:31
OK sir. Thanks for your quick answer. We will be patient as we wait.
January 7, 2018 at 20:29
The observation regarding increased number of application from Turkey is correct, but the reason is different than what you suspect. It is actually more about social and economic problems causing people to freak out and try to leave the country. I see a lot of real people applied and won the lottery at the age of over 35 trying to build a new life abroad. DV lottery is always a good option for that. And I believe upcomig years the number of applications from Trukey will keep growing.
January 8, 2018 at 03:40
This isn’t my first Rodeo. I have seen SUDDEN increases like this before. Social and economic problems will certainly increase the desire to move out of the country, and might explain a small increase, BUT people with immediate dire problems look for immediate solutions. If I have no money to pay the bills this week, I would not buy a lottery ticket that I won’t be able to use for a year even if I win. No. To get a *doubling* of entries from one year to the next takes organization. I’ve seen that before, and I have heard similar comments to yours before – and in the end, my gut instinct proved more accurate than the comments.
January 22, 2018 at 12:06
🙂
January 8, 2018 at 18:36
So Mehmet could you also stop freak out those who follow your website from turkey,by keep saying them ;this year CN over EU20000 is risky,which is not true…safe number fur EU is 33000..you must let the people know that…
January 7, 2018 at 21:44
There are some new captchas to solve. We went down today from 5600 to less than 2200. I did myself around 1700, but if you people could help, that would be nice. Many thanks
https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/scraper.html
January 8, 2018 at 03:43
Thanks for your effort. Please don’t overwork yourself from now on. The solving of captchas will continue for the next 10 months, but we don’t need to have the frantic pace of the first few days. Now we will solve captchas at a slower pace, and by doing so we are constantly refreshing/updating the data.
January 8, 2018 at 03:47
Solving captchas will be every days, once a week or twice at month. And how is going to be the actualizatíon of the results?
Thanks
January 8, 2018 at 05:55
Xarthisius has loaded the downloaded data to a database. Solving captchas should be ongoing. If people do a few every day, we will keep the data fresh/updated. That way we will always have a good idea of what progress is being made.
January 8, 2018 at 06:21
Hello, cases with status ready or AP are checked every 4 days, cases at NVC below cutoff every 8 days. The graphs aren’t updated online – Xarthisius plans to update info every 5 days. This is why it’s important still to do captchas, this will help to do more accurate estimations.
Regards.
January 8, 2018 at 14:39
In addition to that: after every VB release cases “at NVC” in between current and upcoming cutoff will be checked more often.
As for the actualization of the results: there’s a csv file with all the latest data. Later I can add files for all the snapshots if there’s a demand. On the other hands charts will have all the data from the start. Right now, there’s a slider on the page that you can use to see how the cases looked on 01/05 and 01/08 and see how progress is being made.
January 8, 2018 at 14:42
Nice!
January 8, 2018 at 04:01
how many cases are below 50,000 in AF region this year
January 8, 2018 at 15:16
There are exactly 31446 cases below 2018AF50000. The whole point of this scraping venture and public data releases is that you can actually answer this question yourself with little or no effort, using simple tools like: Excel, Google Sheets or awk/grep if you’re a Linux guy.
All data is here: https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/FY2018-ceac-current.csv
January 10, 2018 at 05:31
Hi Xarthisius / Brit
Thank u for ur amazing works. I hv one simple question on FY2018 current charts,
What is “Status Date”?
Thanks again
January 10, 2018 at 14:37
Statuses of individual cases change with time during the year. We all start with “At NVC” then we progress to “Transfer”, “Ready” and “Issued”. However a single plot can show status of all the cases only at a chosen point in time. That’s why I introduced a slider widget that allows you to update the data dynamically. Right now you can see how the statuses looked like on 01/05 and 01/08/2018. You can also safely ignore it, if you’re not interested in seeing how the DV cases evolve. By default, it will always show the latest data.
January 10, 2018 at 16:46
Thanks dude.
January 8, 2018 at 06:52
Hey Brit,
I was Checked CEAC data, Excel file showing my case 2018AS8895 is at NVC,
can you confirm my case have chance for interview?
January 8, 2018 at 08:16
Dear Sir,
Have you ever read article above? Everything regarding Nepal cutoff, banned countries for AS region? If you are none of them what answer other than in article do you expect? At NVC is standard status for every case not current – means nothing important. Be patient because you have long wait and read articles very carefuly. ?
Reards.
January 8, 2018 at 15:05
Please don’t waste my time. READ!
January 8, 2018 at 09:41
Hello Brit, so in your last calculations about derivative rate you made a supposition about possible 33 000 cutoff for Eu. But you hope that this number will be MUCH HIGHER than that due to responsive rate, low number cases in higher CN and response in those countries with about 4500 selectee. I respect your time but your help is necessary so you can ask to my questions whenever you appreciate :).
My question:
1.Do you think that in those countries will have an early cutoff ?
2.Is that assumption one reason that you guess that EU cutoff will be higher than 33 000?
3. and with that happens, can you guess if any of these countries will have an early cutoff below 33 000 ?
p.s i am from ALBANIA with CN 35***.
Best Regards!
January 8, 2018 at 14:55
1. No
2. No
3. See 1 and 2.
The assumption is that those new countries will not get the same case to approval rate (because of low responses, low approvals etc).
January 8, 2018 at 10:29
Hello Bristmon
1,are you saying dv2015 and dv2018 visa blutine progress are might be a little similar?
2.tickects are bought as soon as visa given?
thanks
January 8, 2018 at 14:53
1. No
2. You buy tickets when you want – but it would be foolish to buy them prior to having the visa.
January 8, 2018 at 12:09
IAM confusied because of trump. he may say some thing about HIV postive immigrante.
1. he may ban HIV postive?
January 8, 2018 at 14:49
HIV has been banned i the past – so it could again in the future.
January 8, 2018 at 13:01
Thank you brit for your fantastic effort. I have 3 questions. What was the derivative rate for EU for DV2015? And for DV2015 20771 cases are went current. So can we assume that in DV2018 will go the the similar case number if the derivative rate, response rate, cancellation rate will stay similar? Does Turkey have possibilty pass the country quota?
January 8, 2018 at 14:46
Derivative rates were similar, but my method above accounts for that, and several other factors.