I’m really busy at work so I have not had very much more time to look at the CEAC data today. However, I do have some thoughts to share.
First of all – as some are beginning to realize – it is VERY hard to predict final cutoffs this far away. Many things can happen between now and the end of the year. So – let’s take a look at the next VB and once we see that progress we can see how many interviews are being scheduled at the various embassies.
I also want to remind everyone that I cannot be 100% accurate, because I am not in charge of the DV program. In DV2015 for instance there were case numbers up to 89,000 – that year was massively over selected. I spent months trying to explain why I was sure we would see a lot of people miss out – and many just would not see the logic. Leading up to the final VBs I was convinced that AF region could hit 55,000, but I was concerned about numbers higher than that. In the final VB however, KCC inexplicably stopped AF region at 50,000. Months later I came to understand that my calculations were mathematically correct. There were enough visas for AF to hit the number I felt was safe, but the decision was taken to underfill AF that year, and globally also – and they missed the quota in AF. So – it just goes to show – we need to be careful about predictions.
Now – in talking about DV2015, that brings me to my point. Both DV2017 and DV2016 were underselected years. In DV2016 they only issued 46.7k visas because they underselected and then in DV2017 they underselected and then announced more winners in a second draw. Even with the second draw they still had far fewer selectees in than we have in DV2018, so we seem to be overselected. For that reason I prefer to compare this year to DV2015.
There are several ways to try and estimate final cutoffs – but there are many factors we have to take into account. Here are those factors listed.
- Quota for the region (set by a formula defined in last)
- Selectees numbers
- Starting derivative rate
- Response rate (some people don’t process their win)
- No show rate (some people don’t show up for the interview)
- Derivative growth rate (newborns and marriages increase the selectee numbers)
- Success rate (how many people get refused, or go on AP and cannot be approved in time)
- Processing limits such as the 7% rule
- Rule changes or political and economic influences – real and not real examples for DV2018 being:
- Travel Ban
- Trump is a moron so it puts people off living in the USA
- The economy crashes
I’m sure some people are more confused at what all that means – but let me give a MADE UP illustration. Let me say again – this is JUST AN ILLUSTRATION.
Assume I have case number AF45000. Because of the CEAC data and holes explanation in my last post you now know that there are NOT 44999 cases in front of you. Holes mean there are less cases than that – in fact in DV2018 there are 29336 cases in front of AF45000. So – already you are 15000 places in front of where you thought you were.
However, every case signifies the selectee AND any derivatives they have. They might have a spouse and 7 children, or they might be single. Until they are scheduled, we don’t know. So – we take the number of selectees in the published selectee numbers (49392) and divide by the number of actual cases in the CEAC data (32541). That means we have an average of 1.52 people for every case in Africa as a starting derivative number. So – by taking our example of 29336 cases in front of me at AF45000 and multiplying by the derivative rate (1.52) I can assume there are 44590 people in front of me. That is the length of the queue.
Now – because the formula for the quota is published, we know that the DV2018 quota for AF is about 21600 (based on 50,000 global quota).
OK – those were real numbers – now we move to guesswork. Again – ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY!
However, every time one of the selectees gets married, or has a baby, The queue in front of me get’s longer. That is the derivative growth rate. It varies by country/region – but for AF I have seen growth rates of over 20% – meaning the starting derivative rate becomes a rate of about 1.85 instead of 1.52. So now the queue is over 54,000 people!
Now – we need to know how many of those cases will be “non responses” or “no shows”. As desperate as I may be for my interview at case AF45000, there is some percentage of cases where people either never file their DS260 to say they want to process their case OR they do submit the DS260 but just never show up for the interview. In previous years that non response and now show rate has meant as many as half the queue don’t want their chance. So – maybe there are only 27000 people actually in the queue.
Not all of those 27,000 will be able to pass their interviews. Some will be unable to clear AP procedures before the end of the year, some will not meet the requirement, some will have lied on their eDV of “forgotten” they were married when they entered. The success rate is the rate of how many interviews actually get issued. It varies GREATLY by country – for instance in Ghana refusals are more likely than approvals. In Egypt you have to work very hard to get refused. So – then it becomes a matter of what countries those 27000 people are from. If they were all from Ghana I would be certain to get a chance, but if they are all from Egypt I don’t have a chance at all of getting one of the 21600 places.
See how complex that is? It is VERY HARD to predict the final numbers accurately. VERY HARD.
Now – to take all those into account takes time and extensive data from previous years. To an extent, some of it is guesswork. So – even if we really understand all the factors we STILL can’t be exactly accurate in predictions.
So – let me explain one quick way of doing the math.
Instead of trying to calculate all these numbers together I could look at how many cases were made current in a previous year to get within the quota. So – let’s do that, and give some other useful data.
For this method I will use DV2015. That was the first year the DS260 was used, it was over selected (like this year), and it is relatively recent. DV2016 and DV2017 are not good models because they were under selected. In underselected years some “odd” stuff happens. For instance, in DV2017 SA region received 1830 visas. That is over 400 visa MORE than the region’s quota for that year. That means SA took unused visas from other regions which will ONLY happen in an underselected year (like DV2016 and DV2017). DV2018 is NOT an underselected year.
OK – having said that – here are some numbers based on CEAC data from DV2015 and DV2018.
To explain, I list the quota from DV2018, published selectees per region and the number of cases for the region from the CEAC data. Using that, I have calculated the DV2018 starting derivative rate.
For DV2015 I give the TOTAL cases, and the final cutoff number. Then the cases that were in each region UNDER the cutoff and the number of visas issued. The final column (raw cases per visa issued) is a quick (approximate) method to apply the non response rate no show rate, derivative rate, response rate success rate and so on. By using ratio multiplied by the quota, we get to a ROUGH prediction of how many cases will go current in each region – ****ASSUMING**** all other things are equal. That is a BIG assumption – and an incorrect one for various reasons, but applying that method gives us the following numbers.
AF – 46600
EU – 33000
AS – 9600
OC – 1300
Now – I consider these LOW NUMBERS. These are what I would call safe – to a lesser or greater extent per region. In reality there are a number of factors that this method does not take into account.
AF region seems like a sensible safe number. It is broadly similar to my earlier thoughts. So – I consider that a good “lower number” range for safe numbers. That does NOT mean the number won’t be higher, but I would be surprised if it ended lower than 46600.
EU number is much lower than I would expect to be the final number. This year three countries (Russia, Albania and Turkey) experience a HUGE increase of selectees compared to previous years. That suggests to me that agents were somehow involved in registering entries. When that happens, the number of non responses increase, refusals increase and so on, because agents typically make things worse, not better – especially when their motivation is greed. Added to that the case density in EU is very low. So – from 33000 to 37000 for instance, there are only 1444 cases. So – it is not hard to imagine the number being MUCH higher than 33000. I would be SHOCKED if the number was anything like 33000 – I still expect the final number to be in the 36/37 range (a little reduced from my earlier assessment since max case numbers are actually lower than previously reported).
AS region is very affected by the travel ban. Iran, Syria and Yemen are all under the ban – accounting for nearly 40% of the total selectees in the region. Those selectees cannot be disregarded from the DV lottery. Some of them will not be subject to the ban because of dual citizenship and other reasons. Because of that, KCC can’t simply ignore those 6000 selectees. BUT I don’t know how KCC will treat the shortfall in visas being issued because of the travel ban impact. So – I would pretty much suggest we totally IGNORE the prediction for AS region. There is just no way to know what will happen. So – WAIT AND SEE is the only sensible answer.
For OC region I still believe the final cutoff will be between 1400 and 1500. The method above produced a lower number, but visas issued per 100 cases in OC region is low anyway – so the method could easily be wrong.
SA region again strikes me as low for the same reasons as OC. In addition, this year has a new country, so that has altered the game somewhat. However, the quota will be enforced this year, unlike DV2017, because there will not be spare visas coming from other regions.
I will be spending some time refining these numbers, they are best guesses at the moment, using one particular (approximate) method. NO ONE should bet the farm on these numbers. I could be wrong – just as I have been before.
Now finally let me just say, I provide this analysis not as numbers written in stone, but rather to allow analyitical people to understand what is going on. Many will be lost and confused by this whole post. I understand that, but I get frustrated when someone doesn’t even bother to TRY to understand and just wants ,e to tell them whether their number is safe. I expect people to use their own common sense – and of course feel free to calculate your own numbers using your own methods.
January 8, 2018 at 20:53
I had my interview today and my visa got approved. Just wanted to say thank you!
January 8, 2018 at 21:05
January 10, 2018 at 12:55
Hello. Debora. Congra !! Please what are the requirements needed for interview date. Thank you ! I am from Ethiopia.
January 8, 2018 at 23:03
Hi Brit great work and thanks for all, my case is SAXXX2269 as i understood there is no possibility to get an interview. i will try to solve some captchas for you! thanks for all
January 9, 2018 at 02:21
Sucks to be Oceania 1567. So close but little chance of cigar…
January 9, 2018 at 04:48
January 9, 2018 at 10:58
I have checked numbers gathered from CEAC and compare them with data from Visa Bulletin July (numbers of selectees were published). CEAC has 42000 and VB 41706 for Europe. When I compared few countries, there is also a mismatch (eg Iceland – CEAC has only 1 case, VB 13). Is CAEC displaying only submitted DS260? So lets say in Iceland only 1 person actually applied for GC and other 12 forget/does not want to apply anymore/etc?
Sorry for spam if this was already discussed.
Thanks for clarification
January 9, 2018 at 13:17
Just find out there is no connection/corellation between 2 things I wrote as CEAC actually gathers more cases that VB confirmed. So I will just keep it simple on 2 questions:
Why there is mismatch betwenn CEAC and VB data? In terms of:
a) CEAC has 42000 and VB 41706 for Europe in total
b) Iceland – CEAC has only 1 case, VB 13
January 9, 2018 at 14:53
Surely, with everyone I have written recently this should already have been explained.
a. Published selectees includes derivatives. CEAC is cases, each case including derivatives. There are many holes.
b. Only one at that embassy. The VB mentions all people within selectee families, and they might interview at some other embassy, or not process their case.
January 9, 2018 at 13:46
Thanks for the further analysis Brits. I do not disagree with your math , seems decent to me. I still have this one question though. If in deed Africa stops at 46600, that would be the first time in a decade that it went below 50000. I say this because looking at the historical visa bulletin for the past 10 years, Africa seems to always hit the 50,000 even in overselected years . I already asked you this questions before as to why you set 45000 limit on Africa as safe(older post) but you didn’t bother explain further.
January 9, 2018 at 14:47
Well, I think I made my method clear, and also mentioned that it was an approximation.
But to explain the general principal. People assume the cutoff (and to that matter, the VB progress) has something to do with the case number. So – they, as you have, compare one year to other years. That is a sure way to get surprised. Why? It’s because the number of cases (as well as derivative rate, response rate and so on) is what is important. Let’s say you have a year where there were 30,000 cases under 50,000, and another there were 45,000 cases under 50,000. Do you think those two years would progress the same in the VB or both cutoff at 50,000. Of course not!
So – although the historical numbers are somewhat similar, we have to know the density and other factors to know what is going on.
January 9, 2018 at 15:56
Thanks. Much clearer now. Nice day
January 9, 2018 at 15:23
Do you think that cn EU 386xx has no chance?
January 9, 2018 at 15:25
Many things could happen by July – so I cannot say there is “no chance”.
January 10, 2018 at 06:02
Hey Tom my case no is also EU 386xx, there are less than 100 EU winner after us so basically EU must go current for us to have chance for interview this year. But that is a small possibility. But anyway we should thank to Brit for his fantastic help anyway.
January 9, 2018 at 18:29
Hello brit i know i should wait and be patient and all that but can you give a rough assumption or a close one when can i have my Interview with the number EU25XXX.
Thank you so much for everything im grateful for everything that you have done here.
January 9, 2018 at 18:30
January 9, 2018 at 22:14
May or june
January 9, 2018 at 20:11
I did not understand one thing, an average of 1000 cases “ready” under the number 8 600 with a current date October and November,
these cases will be transformed into “ready” or “refusa” ?????
January 9, 2018 at 20:15
Cases showing ready are scheduled cases. Their status will change after the interview if the embassy updates CEAC
January 9, 2018 at 20:17
mr simon you said” In Egypt you have to work very hard to get refused”
Q1 is it mean that there is more chance for all egyptian to get accept when my CN(20XXX) enter VB??
Q2: is CN (AF21xxx) egypt still safe because i can’t calculate this process and know my state ??
January 9, 2018 at 20:43
My statement said nothing, and meant nothing about case numbers. It meant that, if interviewed, a case seen in Cairo has a high chance of approval.
January 9, 2018 at 22:01
yes this i want to know thanks
but why ??
January 9, 2018 at 22:46
I don’t know.
January 10, 2018 at 05:32
Thanks Brit for ur remarkable illustrations!
I understand Ghanaian denial (due to fake docs, agents’ tale…)
But Sir my Qn is, why is Egypt & Nepal hv a very high rate of approval success compared to others?
Why not Ethiopia for instance? Does that mean Egypt & Nepal favored by US Gov’t?
Sorry, i dint get it
January 10, 2018 at 06:17
It isn’t a deliberate favoring of those countries – but each embassy has to set certain standards for what they consider to be the standard on various aspect such as education requirement, financial proof and so on. Those decisions inevitably lead to some disparity. I can tell you for instance that standards applied in London embassy are much more stringent that Ethiopia for instance. So – each country has a different position.
January 10, 2018 at 07:34
hi brit,I am from nepal…how chance to get interview and which month?my case is 2018AS3580.
January 10, 2018 at 17:08
Wait and see.
January 10, 2018 at 19:21
Hi Brits. I have a question for you and Xarthisius.please any of you feel free to answer . I downloaded the cvs file of the CEAC data . How do I tell the difference between a hole and a real case? Also I wanna program the file so it can tell me how many people are in front of me as well as behind me; how do I do that (I have basic excel knowledge). I currently sit at AF497XX ?.
Also just wanted to say I solved 5200 Captchas running up towards your last article but got demoralised when I didn’t make the cut in your predictions. I’m a little broken but I hope I get back to solving them. I also noticed many people seemed to have stopped solving them , probably coz they too were at higher case numbers.
I’m so grateful for your time and patience in keeping this website running and occasionally giving us hope while we ” WAIT AND SEE”?
January 10, 2018 at 21:04
Holes have the 5th column (“status”) equal to “None”
January 10, 2018 at 21:09
To show the file without holes, I use Excel filters, and in the status column I deselected the cases that have “none” rather than at NVC or issued etc.
Once you have removed the holes you can select rows above or below a given number by using the mouse. This is simple in Excel.
There are 1228 cases at 49700 and above. 31313 cases are below 49700 – so you are in the last 4% of cases. However, you should realize that MANY of these cases will not proceed. You can continue to keep hope and watch what happens. I have used previous years to calculate the safe range, but now we have president Trump, background checks are taking longer, people are affected by the ban, and, quite frankly, moving to the USA may not see so attractive with Trump in charge. So – it would not surprise me at all if the final number ends up higher than my calculation.
I hope you continue to solve captchas. Sometimes we do things for the community, even if we think we won’t benefit. Karma has a way of rewarding people who behave that way.
January 10, 2018 at 23:45
Could you please let me know where the quota data for SA came from
And again with your numbers and having cas SA 1650 should I just give up?
January 11, 2018 at 00:56
The formula for the quota is defined by law. https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-1083/0-0-0-1159.html
No you should not just give up.
January 11, 2018 at 01:20
Thanks so much
Your level of knowledge And commitment on this matter it’s just amazing
January 11, 2018 at 06:03
January 11, 2018 at 06:04
Thanks. Will get back to it
January 10, 2018 at 21:20
Strong, what you can do is to set a filter to each of the statuses (mark the whole first row and click “filter”). Then you only filter for the AF Region. Additionally, you need to set the filter “status” (5th colum) to only show “at NVC” cases ( if you prefer, you can also add the number of alteady issued visas, ready, Ap etc to it, depending on the information you want to get. If you only want to see how many people are still infront of you, you should only select “ar NVC) Then you copy paste whatever results you got into a new excel table, mark your casenumber and count how many cases are behind, and ahead of you. Excel does it for you with a simple demand, but I dont know which that one is for you. Have a try 😉
January 10, 2018 at 21:27
I also have a question! Looking at the charts, we can see that casenumber EU1 for example is not a hole, however, status is still “at NVC”, so that person has not filed their DS260. Now, I guess this is a matter of comparing/expirience but Brit, would oyu say that these early not filed numbers will show up to increase density at a later point (lets say that person has purposly decided to submit the DS260 late to have a later interview) or would you say that in the past years, the majority of those cases have never been followed up with?
January 10, 2018 at 22:43
Yes those cases can become ready later. Most people submit their DS260s early after the May release, but others delay their submissions for a variety of reasons. In years prior to DV2017 this effect was more pronounced because KCC quickly became backlogged with the volume of DS260 submissions, and that created more waiting time for people. That meant many cases missed their current month and were scheduled later. Processing of the DS260s have changed this year, so that effect is less pronounced, but because this year is the first year of that change, I am not going to try and answer your underlying question of how many cases will change later.
January 10, 2018 at 22:58
lol, okay, thanks!
January 11, 2018 at 09:05
Have a good day
First, Thanks for your efforts and your time.
Second, as per the CVS Excel file, Some case number around 12,000 at Cairo, Egypt is ready but as you know that the cut off in Egypt is still 10,300 till date – this mean maybe the KCC will start take numbers over the cut off numbers ?
January 11, 2018 at 14:34
No, it means people from other countries are interviewing in Egypt.
January 11, 2018 at 13:45
Folks, in few days new VB will show up. Probably this will be shocking one for some of us, probably not (I’m thinking about 1st option and unfortunately not positive one, but those are my thoughts, I’m not expert and to many uncertainities, so I’ll keep them (thoughts) to myself – I’ll be more than happy to admit here, that I was terribly wrong and I’ll do so if my thinking turns out to be wrong). Never mind, what is important now is that many people will flood here with questions: why so low/high vb progress and ofc legendary is my cn safe or when will I have interviewed? Everyone will expect answers other than wait and see, which is most accurate answer at present circumstances. Britt’s knowledge is best when supported by most recent data and getting it is out, this community job. Scraping. When the program started this community did a great job. Some people did enormous part of it that I could say „So much owed by so many to so few” – not same situation as originaly, but important to many of us 🙂 Right now not many people are there doing scraping. I’m not asking people to go for highscore, I’m far from this as I’m far behind the top10, but if everyone who comes here to read, to ask contribute some small piece of work that will be awesome and quick job. Right now it’s high 4k captchas and rising a little, to few people to hit it down. Please do 10,20,50 daily – it’s few minutes, but do some. You must understand This is not for Britt, for Xarthisius but for ourselves. I know that many people lost all or large part of hope ( including myself), some people may feel safe because they are under above numbers. But nothing is certain and written in stone and results may be a happy end for those who don’t expect it anymore, or bitter surprise for those who think they are safe and decided to rest on laurels. We got Britts knowledge, we got Xarthisius tool, lets put our work to use it to provide most recent and accurate data. Hope you folks understand and will help – it’s really, really crucial if we want to ask questions and get answers. Thanks again for your effort and I’m asking for more.
P.S Brit, sorry for flooding forum with such long, boring post but I think that you will agree that it’s still important to scraping to provide you data.
January 11, 2018 at 14:01
Why are you so desperate Mr Carlos? Because of high case number? According to me the increments will return to the normal process and the catch the last years numbers.
January 11, 2018 at 14:26
I’m not desperate, we can’t change anything except our knowledge and understanding. I’ve accepted my low chances and doing what I’m asking won’t change them even a bit. Just trying to bring to attention that process and our job is not done yet if anyone of us is planning to ask question – let’s give oportunity to answer it the best way. I don’t know what you mean saying normal process and last year numbers. The first one is more normal this year – orderly processed ds260 creating kower backlog and last years – which years? Numbers were higher and lower 🙂 Not very precise 🙂 and there’s still not enough data to estimate final cutoffs. This data we need, the upcoming and updated that’s why it’s important to continue. VB progress is barely any kind of data 🙂
January 11, 2018 at 14:33
why do you think you have low chances? Im a EU33xxx candidate too and i dont feel like chances are low. Brit says he will be surprised if the cutoff will be around that I will just trust that. Heads up Carlos, and relax!
January 11, 2018 at 14:48
Even low chances are still chances 🙂 I know what Britt said and his opinion matters to me. And his opinion will be more precise as the time and our work progress. Let’s just use this time and put some our work. I’m not going to ask every month is my number safe or not, don’t want to test his patience. Simple questions i’ll keep to try and answer myself 🙂
January 11, 2018 at 14:50
I agree. I will be posting about this in the next couple of days.
January 11, 2018 at 14:56
Carlos! Just because our chances are not 100% doesnt make them low. I consider them a solid 80 and thats still high chances 😉
January 11, 2018 at 15:08
You are right. Probably. I’ve never liked probability calculation 🙂
January 11, 2018 at 14:55
i would love to help you but have no idea about how to do Scraping.
If you don’t mind to explain,let me know how to do
January 11, 2018 at 15:20
Hello Madam/Sir (hard to know), if you go three articles back (data help needed) you will find why and what to do. In short
You need to go to the site as below
And retype text (numbers, letters) you can see on picture in the frame to the field below, enter. and so on. As many times you want, as many times you can. Simple, bit boring but very helpful. Glad you asked and thank you for help. Don’t hesitate to ask if something is not clear yet.
January 11, 2018 at 14:43
however, my calculations bring me to a higher derivative rate than these 1.99%.
Summing up the number of visas already issued and dividing them through the number of cases gives me an average of 2.25 visas per case.
January 11, 2018 at 14:58
1,99 is starting rate. What we see now is derivative growth rate. Few days ago i had around 2,22. That’s why we cannot look only on cn progress, that’s what matters most to everyone but doesn’t provide much information by itself.
January 11, 2018 at 14:59
The derivative rate of approved cases is always higher than the starting derivative rate.
January 11, 2018 at 15:05
Just remember, the method I used above takes derivative growth rate into account, plus response rate, , no shows, success rate, etc.
January 11, 2018 at 15:35
I remember. But i just rather trying to compare numbers from 2015cvc file to current one cn range to same cn range. First cn range 0-2500 seems „better” in 2015 in terms of present cn high numbers.
January 11, 2018 at 15:35
thanks Carlos, now you demoralized me too 🙁
January 11, 2018 at 15:49
Hello, it’s just first range but next ranges seems to be more favourable 🙂 at least so far. Next VB and progress will show where are we going.
January 11, 2018 at 16:01
Not even sure if I wanna know at this point…
January 11, 2018 at 19:49
Why did they have max number for Ghana in 2017 about 11800? More than 3000 winners among the first 11800 numbers and only 800 visas issued?!
January 11, 2018 at 19:57
Ghana has very high levels of fraud, and subsequently has very high levels of refusals. Interview experience stories from Ghana OFTEN include narration of several other cases being refused. It is up to Ghanaians to solve the success rate problem by rejecting the ways that cause such high refusal rates.
January 11, 2018 at 20:11
Refusal rate is problem #1. But why cutoff at 15776? That is a separate problem, problem #2
January 11, 2018 at 20:17
ALL Ghanaians selectees are concentrated in the early numbers. I have explained why that happens in recent posts, as well as my holes theory explanation. So – what is the “problem”?
January 11, 2018 at 20:25
The problem is the number of winners from Ghana looks rather low for an artificial cutoff to be introduced for this country – less than 3200. You could expect this type of cutoff when the number of winners is more than 4300, closer to 4500
January 11, 2018 at 20:48
No, again I have explained this before. Ghana is a ridiculously low derivative rate (which I noticed changing years ago and was my first clue of agent involvement/fraud). Cases can be limited by selectees (inc derivatives) or cases.
I am 100% certain Ghana is limited. No surprise. I have been informing people of that for years.
January 11, 2018 at 20:49
I illustrate for dv-2017. Iran 4500 winners, low numbers only. Ukraine 4500, low numbers. Uzbekistan 4501, low numbers. Egypt 4501 low numbers. And Ghana 3170 also low numbers only. At the same time Congo 3835 high numbers allowed, Nepal 4000 high numbers allowed and Ethiopia 4500 high numbers allowed
January 11, 2018 at 20:08
Typo, 15800, not 11800, sorry
January 11, 2018 at 20:25
Hey Brit, or simon?
All these upper EU comments have mademe so nervous… So i have read that no countries are limited during the draw. The limitation of 7% will come after the draw. With Russia, turkey and albania having more selectees this year, it will be likly that they hit the 7% UNLESS many of them are refused because of agent mistakes. Is that correct? So basically, if we see any of these countries having an earlier cutoff, we can be certain that they have used all the visa valume for their country- meaning higher EU numbers dont habe a good chance. Am I right here?
January 11, 2018 at 20:52
No, you seem pretty confused. I explained that SEVERAL countries are limited in the draw. Because of various factors I don’t think any EU country is going to get close to the 7% limit. As to whether high cases have a chance or not – well I explained that in great detail above. However, the only certain answer is “wait and see”.
January 11, 2018 at 21:31
hi Brits am getting nervous and confused.
1. if you say Ghana is limited what do you mean, is it due to the agents and dishonesty thing or there is a rule that leads to refusals after a certain limit is reached
2. i dont really get all the figures that guy is blowing here. is it to mean that after the number range where the cases in ghana are concentrated are exceeded then all cases will be intentionally refused.
lets say with me being in AF17000 range and in Ghana, can i be refused visa because of such a circumstance if it exists ?
am really getting confused
January 11, 2018 at 21:36
All Ghanaian cases can get an interview.
The limit I am describing is in the DRAW process. So – all Ghanaian selectees have ALREADY made it through that limit. Now it is a matter of preparing for and passing the interview.
January 11, 2018 at 21:51
very well then and thank you very much.
my understanding from the education i have recieved from you over the period matches exactly what you have reiterated.
thats why i quickly came to ask you.
thanks once more Brits
January 12, 2018 at 10:54
I noticed something weird for the Paris,France embassy 2018 CEAC data.
A CN between 12001 and 13000 was “issued” while it’s not yet current, how come? Some others are also AP and ready.
Thanks in advance.
January 12, 2018 at 12:47
Did you read the two-sentence comment right above that plot?
January 12, 2018 at 13:01
You mean are they from other region who want to interviewed at Paris?
January 12, 2018 at 15:57
Yes. You can always download the raw data and verify the chart. Taking Paris embassy as an example (it has code PRS) you can see that they interviewed (or set interview for): 18 people from AF, 1 from AS, 61 from EU, 1 from OC and 1 from SA.
One of those cases happens to be AF14099.
January 13, 2018 at 23:40
Perfectly clear to me now, thanks a lot!
January 12, 2018 at 15:14
Not weird at all. Someone from AF region interviewing in Paris.
January 12, 2018 at 12:59
I have the same question. I also dont understand why cases which are not officially current seem to be already “ready” or “issued”. Have not read the two-sentence comment, but also not sure which comment you mean?
January 12, 2018 at 13:06
Please note that the range of case numbers on the following plot doesn’t correspond to the range of the region where an embassy is located. There’s a simple explanation: an assignement to embassies for DV winners is done per the place of residence, not the place of birth. In other words, it’s possible for an embassy in EU to process people from e.g. AF or AS.
January 12, 2018 at 13:10
yes, but their casenumber would state AF, or AS or whatever in this case, wouldnt it?
A casenumber that starts with EU though is by a person who, well, is european. So the question remains the same.
January 12, 2018 at 15:00
There is no such case. If you think there is – give me an example.
January 12, 2018 at 16:34
EU10699 for example is already “ready” how is that possible if January only goes to 8200?
January 12, 2018 at 16:40
Because ready means scheduled – February cases are already scheduled. No mystery.
January 12, 2018 at 14:47
I’m working on captchas like crazy. Strongly confident that I can take some of the best places in the Hall of fame. But mainly hoping for karma doing its job 🙂
Nicole from EU region (cnxx35xxx)
January 12, 2018 at 14:52
Haha. We will need captchas solved for months to come – so pace yourself!
January 12, 2018 at 18:35
If the case density is low in EU , is there more possibility for the region to go current?
January 12, 2018 at 18:43
EU wont get current!
January 12, 2018 at 18:59
I do not believe EU will get current, but we have months to wait before knowing for sure.
January 12, 2018 at 19:06
Could you please explain what that means? EU won’t get current? Those case numbers that will be out soon, they will be current for march.. ???
January 12, 2018 at 19:30
it means that not all EUcasenumbers will get an interivew
January 12, 2018 at 19:47
We are not talking about the next VB, we are talking about the FINAL numbers at the end of the year. The question is whether EVERY case will have a chance of interview (the region being “CURRENT”), or not.
January 12, 2018 at 19:04
Why are not there more captchas since a couple of hours? My number is “safe” (SA7XX) but I still want to contribute to this community. (Also because I want to be more than a thousand).
January 12, 2018 at 19:49
The system spreads out checking over a few days. You will get plenty of chance to solve captchas in the coming days – and over the next few months 🙂
January 12, 2018 at 19:05
January 12, 2018 at 21:19
Is it possible for a VB to be released beyond 15th?
January 12, 2018 at 21:27
Technically yes, but not likely.
January 12, 2018 at 21:31
So when do you envisage the release of the VB for march interview?
January 12, 2018 at 22:00
January 12, 2018 at 21:47
Hi brit no news about the VBS for march anything wrong ?
January 12, 2018 at 21:57
No. Totally normal.
January 12, 2018 at 23:43
I had reopened my case for an address update and i had submitted it in early june.
So my case no is 31K . My question would be whether reopening and submitting again the ds 269 form would change anything?
will this change throw me to the back if by any chance it gets current or even if it doesnt?
January 12, 2018 at 23:45
i want to make a point clearer. I submitted it in june. But in December i reopened to update my address and submitted again.
January 13, 2018 at 00:36
January 13, 2018 at 03:24
Thanks for providing these resources!
I’ve seen you say that DV2018 is safe. However, I just heard they are considering cutting the visa lottery in half. If this was to occur, do you think DV2018 case numbers could be affected? E.G if OC1300 was safe, it might now only be up to OC650 that gets called for an interview?
Apologies if you have answered before!
January 13, 2018 at 03:55
I have answered this many times. Like I said, DV2018 is UNAFFECTED.
January 13, 2018 at 09:00
brit you says that dv2018 is safe ok i understood. but Representative Bob Goodlatte says; diversity Visa is removed immediately.
title: SEC. 1102. ELIMINATION OF DIVERSITY VISA PROGRAM.
(c) Effective Date.-The amendments made by this section shall take effect on the first day of the fiscal year on or after the date of enactment of this Act.
if the visa is removed, are you sure that it will not affect the 2018 winners?
January 13, 2018 at 15:59
READ WHAT YOU PASTED,
January 13, 2018 at 17:47
English is not my native language. The interpretations of legal concepts can be different, so I wanted to consult you.
Your way of speaking is not kind.
January 13, 2018 at 22:40
I’ll decide whether my way of speaking is kind or not. Please respect my time and don’t repeat questions that you have already seen me answer unequivocally, many times.
January 13, 2018 at 23:17
I deleted your latest rude reply.
Don’t ask me anything in the future.
January 13, 2018 at 16:45
what you posted shows us that dv2018 is safe for 2 reasons. Reason 1. “shall take place on the first day of the fiscal year! (DV18 fiscal year started 1.October, so the next fical year is 1.october 19!) Second: after the date: after the date of enactment of this act (this act is not in power yet)
All in all, even ID this act was to be agreed on by tomorrow, it will not affect dv18!
January 13, 2018 at 17:41
January 13, 2018 at 22:33
This is an apology to Brits on behalf of Faithcyprus.
he is sorry Brits
my dear faithcyprus, britsimon created this site with his own resources just and i repeat just to help people out for free.
he earns not a penny from what he does here.
he is a very nice person and have been nice to dozens of people till date.
your question you asked have been addressed as a topic on this site by brits and he has answered several thousands of questions about the faith of dv 2018.
so if you keep asking and trying to get a different answer other than what he knows then you certainly will get an answer like you got.
in any case that answer was not an unkind answer.
he works to earn a living and doesnt have all the time in the world to waste here.
lets learn to respect his time
January 13, 2018 at 23:27
The question was about a draft law presented on 11 January 2018. There was no need for rudeness. RXY explained. Second: after the date: after the date of enactment of this act (this act is not in power yet)
This part confused my mind.
Anyway, Britsimon is a little anxious, but I’m still grateful.
January 14, 2018 at 03:13
Listen. I am not “anxious”, but I do not sit quietly while people accuse me of being rude, on my blog, and then start throwing obscene language around. Show some decency and respect. If you can’t do that – keep the hell away.
January 14, 2018 at 04:16
The only thing that i don’t imagine it .what so ever is that. there are people participate in ur block and call u rude mester brit ..people these days r not appreciate the good doing really. although u keep doing all these help for them out of no thing in return.is the 1st time to me to write down some thing in ur block but the guys really force me to do so..and i think every thing that any dv lottery winner need is in there in one of ur block or ur illustration it doesn’t even need explaination ..i do keep reading any block ur wrote and every thing is quite down there ..really u deserve nobel prize for helping people the way u do ..thank u any way and sorry for long post man ….
January 14, 2018 at 05:47
Thanks for the words.
January 14, 2018 at 02:52
Do the embassy/kcc schedule the interviews in order like 1,2,3,4 throughout the month or it can be like out of that order 1,6,3 etc.. ?
January 14, 2018 at 05:47
It can be out of order.
January 14, 2018 at 08:11
So sorry master brits,am suprised by those who dont see the importance of this blog.it is of much help and you do a great job.dont get tired of helping those ineed sir.thankyou.
January 14, 2018 at 09:10
HI Brit, thanks a lot for the information.I am an applicant 2018AF37XXX .When was I filling in my DS-260 form I made an omission. I realised I ommitted to say i have two sons as indicated in the original application but went a head and filled DS-260 for each and got cornfimations for them.Will this ommission course any problem ?and if so what do I do ?
January 14, 2018 at 15:59
Unlock and correct your form. Then there is no problem.
January 14, 2018 at 17:13
hi brit…VB not published yet for march interview, its technical problem or other?
January 15, 2018 at 05:59
It’s not the 15th yet…
January 14, 2018 at 17:59
Thanks for the infos
January 14, 2018 at 18:14
why visa bulliten is not yet updated? is there any previous case where vb is updated after 15th of the month?
January 15, 2018 at 06:01
Ask me after the 15th.
January 14, 2018 at 21:08
thank you for your analysis,
but I do not hide you I am reading your analysis of DV2015 you said that the security number between 68000 and 71000 but unfortunately the max c 50 000
I’m afraid this will be the same thing
January 15, 2018 at 06:03
Yes. I have described what happened in that year. Wait and see is the best answer.
January 15, 2018 at 00:23
Is the dv interview hard as applying for non immigrants visas?
Or just routine interview?
January 15, 2018 at 06:04
January 15, 2018 at 05:55
Today (15TH) is the last date for February bulletin release. Right?
In the past years, has the Visa Bulletin ever released beyond 15th day ?
January 15, 2018 at 06:08
January 15, 2018 at 08:18
Good day brit do in othet words lets just wait for the vbs after the 15th thank you we are waiting.
January 15, 2018 at 09:30
Hello Brits. I’m starting to think we’re missing some case numbers in this CEAC data. I mean 49k selectees for AF spread in the range 1-52k case numbers seems to be a very dense distribution. However this density is not reflected in the plots. Are we really sure we got them all? Coz this could explain a lot. Just my humble opinion. Nice day
January 15, 2018 at 13:58
I’m pretty sure we got it all. We tried AF up to 54000. 52581 was the last number with the ‘At NVC’ status. But feel free to verify that independently. Valid scientific data should be reproducible.
January 15, 2018 at 14:49
You seem to expect 49000 cases. Don’t forget, derivatives are included on the same case as the principle selectee.
January 15, 2018 at 10:12
I am from Asia.
Could you tell me plz how many selectees for Asia region case number between 1 to 11000 for dv 2018?
May Allah Bless you
January 15, 2018 at 14:46
Download the file and check yourself.
January 16, 2018 at 04:26
Hon Ahmed where u from, I am
Also the DV winner2018 from Asia, what’s your email address. Thanks salman
January 15, 2018 at 11:34
is there something is new for march interview ??
January 15, 2018 at 14:45
January 15, 2018 at 14:48
I think it will be after today. Today is ‘Martin Luther King Day’ and the administrate is on holiday.
January 15, 2018 at 16:40
January 15, 2018 at 15:34
Hi, BritSimon. Thanks again for all the information/help you give. I’m trying to understand all the process as I go through it. In the case of SA región, could the quota be increased due to Ecuador being included this year? And, each number case includes the derivatives, so the 2301 cases are the 4995 selectees? Thanks again in advance.
January 15, 2018 at 15:57
The quota has been increased because of Ecuador. My numbers account for that.
Yes the derivatives are included in the 4995 and all on the 2301 cases.
January 15, 2018 at 16:07
Barmadu cómo estás te invito a un grupo de Facebook que se llama lotería green card venezuela somo más 200 participantes y por lo menos 65 ganadores de dv2018 ahí nos ayudamos entre todos. Hay gente de Venezuela ecuador cuba Guyana
January 15, 2018 at 15:49
My visa was approved and my plans are to move to the US with my husband in June. However, I wanna go to Jamaica in March for vacation and would have to change planes in the US and go trough immigration. Is that a problem? Because I read that since my husband is the main applicant I have to arrive in the US with him or after him. Still, I would only catch another flight and not move there, so I would like to know if there’s a problem if I do that or is it bettee to go only in June. Don’t know if I can use my tourist visa in March or if I already have to use my permanent visa to enter the country.
January 15, 2018 at 15:55
I don’t know in depth info about transit procedures at every airport, so I cannot tell you for sure whether you would have to pass through US immigration. But if in doubt – play it safe.
January 15, 2018 at 17:31
Hi Mr. Brit I’m a DV 2018 winner from Egypt, My case number is 95xx my interview scheduled in 15 February 2018 , I submitted ds260 application for myself only but I will marry in 21 January 2018 . what should I do to add my wife to the interview? Thanks
January 15, 2018 at 18:59
You will have to ask the embassy. But really – you left this VERY late.