The CEAC data has been extracted by Xarthisius. He was able to pull the data using a paid service to solve the captchas. Although there is a cost, it is faster than our “crowd” method that we used last year. So we should be very grateful to Xarthisius for getting this data for the first load. It allows us to start looking at data to understand many things about this year.
The video below is a useful introduction to the data and has some of my thoughts as I was looking at the data last night.
We now know the precise highest case numbers assigned in each region. This is not the final cutoff numbers, this is simply the highest winner number in each region.
| AF – 73269 |
| AS – 31565 |
| EU – 55271 |
| OC – 2247 |
| SA – 4000 |
Important links:
How to check your status and what the status codes mean
January 2, 2020 at 18:12
This is an excellent video! Thank you so much BritSimon for the analysis and Xarthisius for extracting this data in a flash!!
January 2, 2020 at 18:16
Hello Sir
Other years’ data where I can see thanks
January 2, 2020 at 19:38
On Xarthisius’ site.
January 2, 2020 at 19:37
Wow one hundread and six…, no second draw as you said
January 2, 2020 at 21:37
106????
January 5, 2020 at 18:49
I MADE THE ADDITON BUT REALISE WAS WRONG
January 2, 2020 at 22:32
Just a basic question – are interviews necessarily spread throughout the entire year or can they interview the last person of that region beore Sept 2020? For example, if there are only 500 selectees left in OC, will they intentionally spread their interviews until the end of September or they can schedule all of them by, say, June?
January 2, 2020 at 23:30
They would spread them out. There will always be at least some cases in September.
January 4, 2020 at 22:49
Hi Brit,
I am OC22XX, previously you have estimated that this would become current in April/May 2020 and the OC numbers are progressing around 400 numbers a month which is looking like April/May is accurate. As I am one of the last winning numbers according to this you would expect my interview would fall closer to September then? i.e. all numbers would not become current as soon as May?
January 5, 2020 at 03:34
Possibly. Earlier the thought had been that OC numbers were near 3000. We now know that is not the case, so although there has been fast progress, the VB for OC might slow a little as backlog cases are handled. Wait and see is always the best answer…
January 5, 2020 at 11:57
Yes waiting is all that can be done, have regions gone current as early as May ever before? It is interesting that your estimate for OC with 3000 cases was almost perfectly spot on with how it has been progressing… I wonder if there is something to that… you couldn’t have pulled 3000 from thin air I’m guessing
January 5, 2020 at 19:19
Yes we have seen regions go current early – and they might do so if the backlog of people not submitting DS260/documents allow.
The 3000 was reported (by more than one person) – probably just a misunderstanding (mixing up regions). The VB progress had been fast as I expected. However, I had already been a little nervous about that number, through “German Tank problem” thinking (google it). So – the VB pace was probably more to do with the documents procedure – or just Aussies being ultra laid back as usual.
January 5, 2020 at 19:22
When a region becomes current, is there a way to know the progress of interviews, meaning what was the cutoff for every month? Because with a cutoff number on the VB you could see the pace but when it jusy says “current” every month you can’t really tell…
January 5, 2020 at 19:57
Your question seems confused. Current (for a region) means ALL cases numbers can be interviewed.
January 5, 2020 at 21:18
I understand that, what I meant is after a region becomes current and that what shows on the VB, how can you know when to expect your interview? If there’s a cutoff number then everyone lower than that can expect their 2NL that same month but if a region becomes current in May for example, how can you tell if you’ll be interviewed in July, Aug, or Sep?
January 5, 2020 at 23:01
Again, you are still not making much sense, but then it depends on when you submitted the DS260/documents. If that was long before, then when they go current, you would be scheduled in the next batch.
January 6, 2020 at 07:08
So after a region becomes current does it still go by CN or on a first come first served basis?
January 6, 2020 at 16:56
As cases are ready, they are scheduled. The assumption is that most cases have been scheduled by that point.
January 2, 2020 at 23:05
Ok. The numbers are good, the holes are here, everything like you predicted.
I’m EU 34k and there is around 10.5k real cases in front of me… With little more above 50% response rate it seems like I have good chances this year?
Do you think this slow start and little number of visas issued in first months can be dangerous for us higher numbers?
January 2, 2020 at 23:29
Well firstly EU34K is NOT a high number – as you can now understand.
As I have said in recent weeks, March and April need to see an acceleration on the VB – so wait and see how that goes, but either way, it should be obvious to you that the EU quota cannot possibly be filled prior to your number – mathematically impossible. So – unless they were to not full the quota your number must be safe.
January 2, 2020 at 23:33
Happy New year and Merry christmas britsimon, CN af69k from egypt. is still any risk for high numbers of Egypt? Is there a hope for my number to be current?
Thank you
January 2, 2020 at 23:50
Hi Simon,
On your video minute 45. There is a better way to search your website using the following:
site:britsimonsays.com XXX
You can write anything you are looking for on the XXX
This will give much accurate and comprehensive results
January 3, 2020 at 01:15
Hello Brit,
Happy new year ??!!!
I’m a bit worry EU will not go CURRENT.
Basically before my case number (49xxx) there are 14 k cases which would be Ok but considering the average so far of 2 derivates for case will make 28 k green card given.
Let’s wait march/april ?
Anyway thanks as always for the info Brit and the great support???!!!
January 3, 2020 at 05:56
Not every case is successful, so you just need to wait and see what happens.
January 3, 2020 at 02:08
Dear mr brit.
On your videos i heard that Nepal will be cutoff after 15k. Is that mean after CN15k from Asia or 15K of Nepal. Now Nepal has only 7k where asia has 12k.
Thank you
January 3, 2020 at 05:57
You did not pay proper attention. I said the highest case number ASSIGNED for Nepal was 15k. That is NOT what you are talking about.
January 3, 2020 at 03:05
hello so EU35K can get viSAS SIMON??????please if not so hard for you to reply….
sorry my english is no so good to understand video……….
January 3, 2020 at 05:57
Yes.
January 3, 2020 at 06:18
Hello ,Mr Brits, happy New year, my case is 2020af635**, when I check on CEAC status check, the results is that follow the 6 steps Nvc, I don’t understand. Am done with my ds260, and send my documents that were requested by kcc
January 3, 2020 at 06:27
You did not click the links above did you. IGNORE the 6 steps. Click my links.
January 6, 2020 at 08:24
Which link
January 6, 2020 at 16:59
In the article. Click them all.
January 3, 2020 at 10:05
I think it should be good to send uour Ds early because there is a lot of holes 60%for AF
January 3, 2020 at 08:01
Hi brit
do you think the AF region should be up to current?
January 3, 2020 at 16:27
We will wait and see.
January 3, 2020 at 10:57
Hi brit
I check on CEAC statut check the result is (please follow the instructions you received from NVC that the six steps you must take before NVC can schedule your visa interview…..) and above the result i saw a code “AT NVC”
What do that mean sir ??
January 3, 2020 at 12:57
You have to wait if you send your DS 260
January 3, 2020 at 16:58
I sent my ds 260..my CN is AF 27***
January 3, 2020 at 16:32
READ the article above!
January 3, 2020 at 16:58
I didn’t understand the article sir…my English is so bad
January 3, 2020 at 11:18
Happy New Year Brits I have been following your instructions kindly and I have had no problems .am AF 15**** I have been scheduled for February interview .thanks for the guidance Brits .i pray my interview goes successfully.
January 3, 2020 at 16:32
Prepare well. Good luck!
January 3, 2020 at 12:25
Hi Brit! I watched your video but you didnt talk about high case number. You will say see and wait i know. But I worry about it. My cn 40XXX.. what is my case posibility for visa? I guess it will be ok in may. Can you say sth about my cn,? Thanks a lot
January 3, 2020 at 16:33
Quoting your case number without a region is a waste of my time.
January 3, 2020 at 16:50
I’m so sorry Brit I forgot it. My region is EU
January 3, 2020 at 18:23
So then it is fine – just be patient.
January 3, 2020 at 19:15
Hello brit, what about 45k What are the chances for a date of interview? Thank you
January 3, 2020 at 19:17
For eu region
January 3, 2020 at 19:55
The next couple of months are important for EU. So – wait and see.
January 3, 2020 at 14:41
Dear Sir Simon,
I have found the answer by myself on https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/embassies.txt. The abbreviation of Cambodia is PHP.
So what is the status mean of “At NVC” and “None”?
Because I saw many “None” status on CN on CEAC data.
Thanks Chetra …
January 3, 2020 at 16:36
Read the article above.
January 3, 2020 at 15:07
hi brit how are you doing sorry for asking you many times i just get worried that i send document october24 they send me document complete December 13 but i didn’t get my 2nl i am current last vb Af 21*** Do i have to email kcc ?? what do you think ?? say something thank you for everything
January 3, 2020 at 16:37
Wait patiently. You will get a 2NL later in January for a March interview.
January 3, 2020 at 17:07
Hi Simon
If I got my document confirmation email in Jan and my number will be current in jan visa bulletin – Can i get my 2NL in Jan? I head that for my case, if I did not receive the document confirmation email before 31 Dec , I won’t get my 2NL in Jan.
Thanks
January 3, 2020 at 18:17
No. If they only receive or complete processing your documents in January you cannot be scheduled in that month. You would then be scheduled a month later.
January 3, 2020 at 18:23
Thanks Simon
January 6, 2020 at 16:09
Hi Simon,
I saw your video about the 2NL on 30 June 2019. You mentioned that 2NL are issued for documents processed the month before the VB is issued or “very early” in the same VB month- so in my case can 3 Jan fall under “very early in the same month”?
Many thanks
January 6, 2020 at 17:10
Probably not.
January 3, 2020 at 18:04
Hi brit, first of all thank you and xarthisius. I tried to calculate the derivative rate of EU in dv2019 and dv2018. I calculated 2.321051946361151 and 2.294007295466389 respectively (not the initial derivative rates, after the derivative growth). Are they true? And if they are then in dv2020 EU we have 15858 * 2.32 = 36790 people. Do you think this calculation is right to approximate EU selectee count? Finally what do you think about the EU?
Sincerely…
Z.
January 3, 2020 at 18:10
Btw I am EU47K
January 3, 2020 at 18:15
Those numbers sound about right – as you say – AFTER a full year of derivative growth. The calculation to 36790 is too high because the starting derivative rate is lower – meaning the mix of selectees this year went more to countries with lower derivative rates than in the other years. So – I doubt we will see the rate you mention – but we will see.
What do I think about the EU?? Well – I like it. I would not have voted for Brexit.
January 3, 2020 at 19:41
I think you’re wrong. According to https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-august-2019.html there should be about 30797 applicants in EU.
January 3, 2020 at 20:00
@Mio, don’t you think I would have said if the number was wrong???
The number he is referring to is the number of CASES, not selectees.
January 3, 2020 at 20:19
Ok, maybe I’m missing something. But, in DV2020 we have 15859 EU CASES (xarthisius) and 30794 EU applicants including dependents (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diversity_Immigrant_Visa). Isn’t it derivate rate 1.9417?
January 3, 2020 at 20:25
Yes – You are missing something – the something that was mentioned above. There is a derivative GROWTH rate – and that is what the OP was considering.
January 4, 2020 at 11:39
1.94 is derivate rate
15858×1.94=30800
But response rate is aprox 60%
60% of 30800 is 18500
January 3, 2020 at 18:07
Wow that’s wonderful news.
Do you think EU39498 will have a chance to be interviewed?
Thanks a lot Brit !
January 3, 2020 at 18:12
That number has always had a chance. I have been saying so for 6 months. Now you understand why.
January 5, 2020 at 16:53
You’ve been right Brit, now I’m more confident about the case number .
Thank you for helping us so much !
January 3, 2020 at 18:32
Sorry sir you refer to 36790
January 3, 2020 at 20:28
What about the derivatives rate in 2018 – 2019 what was it for Europe ?? Thanks for answering me
January 3, 2020 at 20:45
That is discussed just a few comments before yours! You seem to want to play some sort of game to deliberately waste my time.
January 3, 2020 at 21:56
RELLAY ?! 🙁 🙁 Is not true and i never do this please such things should not be thought of by you. i see you i hear you more attention and you are a very special person to me i never think of doing things you don’t like to apologize much if i bored you
January 4, 2020 at 04:51
I have asked you before.
1. Learn to use the reply.
2. Read the FAQ and other articles.
3. If you really need to ask – be clear and do not repeat the same questions time and time again.
January 3, 2020 at 22:27
Thank you, Brit. Are those recorded cases the ones that shut down the ds260 and any unregistered winners?
January 4, 2020 at 04:50
Please be more clear.
January 4, 2020 at 02:08
Hi brit how are you doing sorry for asking you many times i just worried about my case number is AS 14.5 k from nepal can i hope for a interview and my number is safe now nwpal is runnig only for 7.5 k so if you reply me i m thankfull to you sir, can i possible in june for a interview
January 4, 2020 at 04:45
You will have to wait and see.
January 4, 2020 at 07:34
Its mean i have no hope for a interveiw
January 4, 2020 at 17:10
No. It means what it says.
January 4, 2020 at 03:02
Can i change my sponsor? What are the procedure to change sponsor? i have already submitted my DS260, should i unlock my Ds 260 before interview to change sponsor. I have no idea what documents of sponsor i have to submit during interview is there any harm of changing sponsor.
Hope i can get all my quiries will be solved
January 4, 2020 at 04:44
One thing is the USA address you gave in the DS260 – that is not always the sponsor, and you can change that at the interview.
You present sponsors details (an I-134 etc) at the interview.
January 4, 2020 at 05:30
I means i have not to unlock my ds 260 my submitted and present address of sponsor is different.
January 4, 2020 at 08:01
Hello Brit,
first thank you for the incredible precious work that you do for all of us.
My question: Do you think that the ebassies could run out of time to schedule the interviews? That means, although a region ist current, let’s say in July, there is not enough time left to schedule all the remaining cases for an interview?
Thanks for your answer.
Best,
Martin
January 4, 2020 at 17:11
Yes, if KCC leave processing too late there is a danger of that.
January 4, 2020 at 11:39
Thanks so very much Brit for your insightful information. My case number is AF70*** from Liberia is there any chance realistically before the end of the process? God bless!
January 4, 2020 at 17:32
Mathematically, yes. You just have to wait and see.
January 4, 2020 at 22:08
Thanks so much! Because I am about to let it go.
January 4, 2020 at 13:30
Thank you for putting this video together! I have a question:
How long does it take these days for the application and documents to be processed?
January 4, 2020 at 17:33
It varies greatly.
January 4, 2020 at 13:32
Dear Britt,
I have a question regarding I-130.
I t was received in October 2012.
When do you approximately think that it will be confirmed?
3-4 years?
PS:Not my question,they made me ask 🙂
January 4, 2020 at 17:34
I only answer DV lottery questions.
January 4, 2020 at 15:47
Hi Brit!
I sent requested documents to [email protected]… on November 20th and got auto-reply I should expect an e-mail from them in upto 6 weeks. Still not hearing from them. Should I do something?
Thank you
January 4, 2020 at 17:40
No – just wait.
January 4, 2020 at 16:20
brit how are you doing sorry for asking you many times i just worried about my case number is AS 98** k from nepal can i hope for a interview and my number is safe now nwpal is runnig only for 7.5 k so if you reply me i m thankfull to you sir, can i possible in April for a interview
REPLY
January 4, 2020 at 17:44
You asked and acknowledged my answer, just YESTERDAY!!!
Be respectful of my time please!
January 4, 2020 at 17:49
Dear Simon,
thanks for all your efforts for supporting.
accordin ceac data extrated AS has 9053 cases for 2020.
657 cases current by Octber VB 1300
1058 cases current by Nov VB 3500
1218 cases current by Dec VB 6000
1077 cases current by January VB 8200
1868 cases current by Feb VB 12000
as you said March and April it will goes more cases to be current, till february 5878 cases got current with case number 12000
and only 3175 cases remaining to be current for next coming VBs,
so if we predict that
1500 cases current by March VB it goes upto AS 18500
and
1500 cases current by April VB that comes out by AS31000
what do you think about this that could AS region current by April VB or March VB?
thanks
January 5, 2020 at 11:15
AS after 12-14k is 85% holes. Iran and Nepal bulletin are progressing at their own paces. Definitely a huge increase in bulletin for March, and perhaps all current by April unless they have a lot of pending cases to manage by then or if Iran and and Nepal cases sync with the rest of the region. it is getting more exciting every time some new data are available ?
January 5, 2020 at 19:05
This is a good question and deserves a better reply – but basically you have two factors that you are not accounting for.
1. Most cases in the early number ranges are Iran and Nepal. After they are removed from the density, the remaining number ranges are “Rest of Asia” (ROA). Nepal and Iran will behave differently to the ROA.
2. There is a backlog of cases in the early ranges which will take some of the interview slots. How many is uncertain, but it could mean that KCC have a couple of slow months in Asia.
So – we might see current early as you suggest, but it is not as clear cut as your numbers suggest. The point is not when you get the interview, its “IF”. And for AS region, that is pretty secure, barring any more surprises.
January 5, 2020 at 09:35
Hi Brit, thank you so much for the video. One thing I am curious to know about is the response rate. You were rightly indicating we may see a higher response rate this year. Is it too early to consider the current rate in our analysis? So far, it seems only a little bit higher than previous years.
Looking forward to see your next in-depth analysis 🙂
January 5, 2020 at 19:10
It is NOT higher yet. But the response rate “matures” throughout the whole year, so we won’t really know it until the end.
January 5, 2020 at 12:41
Hi Brit,
My CN is AF55*** . One question, I came across some information on one of the news websites that greencard fee and immigration fee is set to increase by 79%. does this include DV lottery or its limited to the other “greencard”
January 5, 2020 at 19:19
Not DV.
January 5, 2020 at 20:01
Hi birit still no answer befor 2days i am asking questions please help me thanks
January 5, 2020 at 20:42
You mean this answer????
https://britsimonsays.com/ask-questions/comment-page-415/#comment-214375
January 6, 2020 at 06:53
Hi Brit, Greetings from Nepal, I have a little concern about how many applicant are invited for visa interview in a month and what factor affects high no. and low no. in a month.
As per available data after filtering for KDU {Nepal) interview:
Oct 19, Case No upto 1000 : 155 main applicant (268 with derivatives)
Nov 19, Case No upto 3100: 272 main applicant (446 with derivatives)
Dec 19, Case No upto 5000: 264 main applicant (418 with derivatives)
Jan 20, Case No upto 6500: 201 main applicant (351 with derivatives)
Feb 20, Case No upto 7575: 147 main applicant (227 with derivatives)
It seems like around 150 cases per 1000 case no is consistent, but they have interviewed almost double in Nov and Dec.
1. What is the reason for this differences in a month interview?
2. As seen in available graph and as you said also it seems Nepal Cases are concentrated below 15k but nepal no. are seen upto 21k, which is unusual as in 2019 they were under 6300 and not high no was seen as in graph also.
3. As an expert what is your further monthly prediction for Nepal VB progress? It seems 150cases /1000 case No and in total 1710 (Out of 3696) are ready till feb 2020.
Thank you in advance
January 6, 2020 at 10:57
(SN) sir or madam, im from nepal 2020 dv winner . I have a question with you so how can i cantact with you
January 7, 2020 at 06:23
Please provide your contact info, I will message you, thanks
January 7, 2020 at 08:39
My viber no is +821024926645 plz cantact me otherwise you can give me your cantact info i will cantact you
January 6, 2020 at 16:54
1. In each month they have cases in ALREADY current number ranges that were not ready for scheduling previously. I cal that backlog. Interview capacity has to allow for backlog cases, then they set the VB at a number to add the number of new cases they need to fill the capacity. November/December had very little backlog from the slow start in October.
2. I very much doubt there are ANY/MANY real cases over 15k. The concentration is certain – I knew it before the CEAC data, but you can now see it yourself.
3. Read and understand my first answer. Then wait and see.
January 7, 2020 at 06:22
Thank you Brit for clearing the confusion, yes there is 200+ backlog cases for jan and feb, so VB was slow for Nepal.
There are few cases above 15k for Nepal as data provided by DV processing Consultancy here and someone has also done inquiry about 17k for Nepal in this blog also few month ago, BTW it may be exceptional cases.
Selected no for Nepal and Asia are almost similar as 2019 and travel ban countries are still in effect, hoping for Asia and Nepal goes current as in 2019.
thanks
January 7, 2020 at 06:28
Visa Status for Nepal (Dec 30) : Issued : 816, AP : 82, Refused : 65, Ready : 747
January 7, 2020 at 15:29
Those consultancies have given bad information before, and no doubt will continue to do so.
Asia will go current because of the Travel ban. Nepal’s only problem is the 7% limit. With derivative growth and very high response rates, that could be a concern. But it would only be the very highest cases numbers.
January 7, 2020 at 06:56
One more question please, I have traveled 2 country outside Nepal (India and China) in official tour for 10 days in recent 5 yrs, should I update that in DS260 by unlocking it or it doesn’t matter since it was not available while filling the form. Case no 14k
Thanks
January 7, 2020 at 15:31
You have time to update without causing any delay. So – on balance, that is the smarter thing to do to avoid any chance they ask for those details after the interview.
January 7, 2020 at 16:02
Thank you for your suggestion
January 6, 2020 at 09:14
Hi Brit,
Does the Xarthisius DV 2020 data gets updated every month or this is it.
January 6, 2020 at 17:00
Each month.
January 6, 2020 at 14:31
HAi Bristimon
We all know there is huge tensions between Iran,Venezuela, and USA right now.There are also health issue in DCR.all these countries get mass selection rate.
with the Tension between USA and Iran and The united states asking its citizens to leave both Iraq and Iran,do you think that will affect the Diversity Visa program for selectee there?
If so, do we expect second selections.
can you please extract some data about second selection if possible .
thanks
January 6, 2020 at 17:06
I cannot predict what will happen on the world political stage, but whatever happens, it will not cause a 2nd draw.
January 6, 2020 at 16:51
Hello Brit, happy new year.
By the way, the state department changed the link to dv lottery website. It is no longer dvlottery.state.gov but dvprogram.state.gov. What is the idea?
January 8, 2020 at 19:09
It seems that it was silently change
since no any reference for it.
-the CNAME record updated on 4JAN20.
-the SSL certificate issued on 2JAN20.
I think Mr. Brit can get explanation for that change.
January 8, 2020 at 20:17
They change things from time to time. Servers, URLs and so on. It’s not really a problem or indicative of anything. So – no need to worry about it.
January 7, 2020 at 09:44
It is possible that the DS260 question varying from case to case, depending also for the zone?
I’ m seeing different people mention their travel history ?.I ‘ we check several times even a minute ago and the only travel history record is about USA Travel, history, meaning if and when I have been travelling to USA and not to other country??♂️.
Why other are mention travel history around the world ? ?
January 7, 2020 at 15:33
It varies based on how you answer questions.
January 7, 2020 at 16:58
Hi Brit,
Sorry i did explain my self.
I’m meaning on DS260 they are asking your US travel history and not where you been around the world…
Thats what i would like clarify also with the others selected.
Thank you,
Paolo ☺️
January 7, 2020 at 17:05
The travel history question covers all countries.
January 7, 2020 at 17:35
Ok, well I don’ t know how it was on the previous year but on my DS260 it’ s specifically asking last five time that you been only on US.
I can send screenshoot of my DS but i don t know how here
Thank you
Paolo☺️
January 7, 2020 at 18:43
You are mixing up two questions.
One question asks for the last 5 entries into the USA. They don’t care where in the USA you went, just when you entered and left.
Then secondly there is now a question about travel history outside of the residence country.
January 8, 2020 at 07:27
Hir Brit ! when I submitted ds-260 back on end of june 2019 there was not the question for travels outside home country just the question about US travel history ,it seems it was added recently ,all the other questions including social media I completed ,should I unlock ds-260 to complete newly added question or it is ok? thanks
January 8, 2020 at 17:22
I answered another similar question this morning – here:
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2020-ceac-data-available/comment-page-1/#comment-214698
January 7, 2020 at 19:29
Hi Brit,
Yes I saw now you are right is on the Security background section before the question “Have u served on military”.
As for the Social Media question this has been added on later stage after I completed the DS form on May.
Should I ask for unlock my DS form or like for the Social Media I leave like this?
Thank you for your time & patience.
Paolo
January 7, 2020 at 22:33
That’s up to you. If you don’t update it in the DS260 while you are waiting to be current, it could be a reason for delay later after the interview.
January 8, 2020 at 06:52
Ok , thank you ?
January 7, 2020 at 23:15
If the January VB for Asia only reaches 8200 then how come there are some cases in the 9000-10000 range that are ready or in transit?
January 7, 2020 at 23:36
Because the January VB gives the number for January but advanced notice for February. So – the number is not 8200, its 12000.
January 8, 2020 at 06:24
Yeah that makes sense… So the fact that there are so few ready between 9000-12000 means there is a huge backlog?
January 8, 2020 at 17:23
Backlog yes. Huge? I don’t know.
January 8, 2020 at 18:42
Do you expect it to cause a slow progress for AS region from now on? And what do you think are the implications on the region becoming current?
Thanks!
January 8, 2020 at 18:59
There are too many factors at play, so I tend to follow my own advice and “wait and see”.
January 8, 2020 at 08:18
My case number is EU551XX so playing the waiting game and hope to squeeze in in the last round.
January 8, 2020 at 16:19
Hello Brit,
I send the below mail to KKC asking if I would need to unlock the DS form due to the new questions.
I attach their answer which however is focusing on the “Social media”question and I do believe it will be the same for the others new question like the “Travel outside the country”
I would like to share with you and with others may be interested.
Thank you and Regards,
Paolo?
Here below mail:
Name: Paolo ******
Case Number: 2020EU*********
Date of Birth: ******
Good day,
I would need your help.
While I was reviewing the DS260 that I submitted on 28 May 2019 I saw that has been added additional query.
I would ask if do I need to unlock for answer the new question.
Thank you for your help,
Best Regards,
Answer:
Thank you for your inquiry.
If your DS-260 was submitted before the social media question was added, you will not be required to unlock your DS-260 to answer the question. If your DS-260 has not been submitted or is unlocked for any reason, you will need to answer all questions on the DS-260, including the social media question. You only need to select the social media that you have used in the last five years.
January 8, 2020 at 17:03
Their response is *precisely* the advice I have been giving in two or three articles addressing the topic.
However, what is unsaid in their response is that some applicants have been asked the same questions as the newly added DS260 questions but on a supplemental form, the DS5535. So, if a person has NOT completed the new questions in their DS260, the CO can insist the person answers those questions on the supplemental form. That would lead to a delay after interview. SO, some people would be better off opening the DS260 and answering the questions proactively, rather than waiting for the interview.
Now in which cases will the DS5535 be used – well I can’t be certain, but it appears to be mainly countries where there are terrorism concerns.
January 8, 2020 at 18:45
Hello Brit once more…
I gathered some statistics, you might know these but just in case (and other people could maybe make further assumptions).
Every Statistic is for *EU*
— 2020 —
At the end of June 2020 – At the first 3208 Cases (No RP + RP, All current): Response Rate is “%52.8”, AP and Refused Rate is “%17.8”, Derivative Rate is “2.185”.
— 2019 —
At the end of June 2019 – At first 3287 Cases (No RP + RP, All current): Response Rate is “%50.2”, AP and Refused Rate is “%15.4”, Derivative Rate is “2.298”.
At the end of 2019 Lottery – At first 3287 Cases (No RP + RP, All current): Response Rate is “%61”, AP and Refused Rate is “%16.4”, Derivative Rate is “2.357”.
At the end of 2019 Lottery – ALL CASES (No RP + RP, All current): Response Rate is “%60.1”, AP and Refused Rate is “%13.7”, Derivative Rate is “2.321”.
— 2018 —
At the end of June 2018 – At first 3236 Cases (No RP + RP, All current): Response Rate is “%53.2”, AP and Refused Rate is “%11.1”, Derivative Rate is “2.318”.
At the end of 2018 Lottery – At first 3236 Cases (No RP + RP, All current): Response Rate is “%63.5”, AP and Refused Rate is “%11.7”, Derivative Rate is “2.303”.
At the end of 2018 Lottery – ALL CASES (No RP + RP, All current): Response Rate is “%64.5”, AP and Refused Rate is “%8.8”, Derivative Rate is “2.294”.
Basically you are right about the maturation of the response rate through the year.
Thanks and hope it helps…
Z.
January 8, 2020 at 18:57
I have written articles that explain how the derivative rate matures – but also it is simple logic. To understand the maturing, it would be good to consider the baseline derivative rate for each year (announced selectees/confirmed cases from CEAC).
Also – people tend to behave the same way within countries more than regions. So when we look at response and refusal rates, those vary somewhat based on the mix of selectees in any given year. If some countries increase their share of selectees, it can change the year to year comparisons.
January 8, 2020 at 19:06
You are absolutely right about “people tend to behave the same way within countries more than regions”. But frankly it is impossible to calculate those statistics. Because we don’t know the country of the cases whose status are “at NVC”… and thats why you always tell “wait and see” damn..
January 8, 2020 at 20:14
Yup.
When I started in DV I was eager to understand how to predict. Getting the CEAC data (starting around 2014) was a huge help to understand, and for a while I believed that I could predict VB progress, end cutoffs and so on. BUT I realized there were other unpredictable factors, so whilst the math was possible – that doesn’t cover everything – there will always be uncertainty. Hence wait and see becomes the best answer. People don’t always understand why that is literally the best answer and many assume I can predict things with precision, but really – no one can.
January 8, 2020 at 19:16
Hi Liberty,
Basically are you estimating any how EU region will be current in the end of June?
After March and April I think everything will be more clear hoping that they will speed up the process.
Have a nice day,
Paolo?
January 8, 2020 at 20:01
I think and hope EU will go current or near current. (country quota, healthcare proclamation – maybe in effect, +2k visa, other regions might have many visas left over so KCC could give some to EU – a possibility and so on)
January 8, 2020 at 19:40
Good work Liberty:-)
I tried to calculate with following values: derivate rate: 2.3, response%: 64, refuse%: 8 and for (example) 20000 EU visa it gave me highest successfull case number 50715 (theoretically)
Please Brit, if the above is nonsense, delete it immediately, I don’t want to scare somebody 😉
January 9, 2020 at 01:14
It’s not “nonsense” completely – but it is difficult to be precise about these things. Small tweaks in your numbers will change things a lot.
January 8, 2020 at 18:51
hello brith thanks to God I know your page you answer all i asked you wow thank you for your help
and i have question the Guy who filled our Ds260 know our case number and our conformation number and he asked as some money to ready us for interviews but me i don’t want to pay him because i get your page i know many things from your page what do you say to me did he can do something wrong if i didn’t pay? did he can affects my cases?? bye knowing case number and conformation number?? thank you your help
January 9, 2020 at 02:48
you forget to answer my Question
January 9, 2020 at 18:34
I don’t know the person or his knowledge. So I cannot comment on what he/she could or couldn’t do.
January 8, 2020 at 20:39
Dear Simon, please help. I submitted my DS -260 form, where I mentioned I am married and that my spouse is immigrating together with me.
I have also submitted my docs to KCC together with my spouse’s documents.
Now I see in my CEAC application “Add Applicant” button. Isn’t my spouse already included? Should I press this button and one more time add my spouse there? Please help. I am in panic.
January 9, 2020 at 01:25
Ask once, and wait for the answer.