As many of you will know, we are able to extract the CEAC data which shows whether each case was approved, refused and so on. Xarthisius (a DV winner himself) created the software solution to do that, and a number of people have selflessly worked solving CAPTCHAS so we could get this data. Xarthisius has just published the final file for DV2018. There might be some updates still being made to the data, but we have a good picture of what happened. Remember the issued numbers below are not including AOS (Adjustment of Status) cases, so the final official number will be a little higher than this.
So – some thoughts….
- AF region has over 2400 approvals in the final 2 weeks. That is an excellent effort by the government to try and use the visas. Yes, many AP cases were left behind, but they did the best they could do. As I had mentioned before, I suspect that was why the initial DV2019 months were low, because that would have given more resources to closing out the DV2018 cases.
- Despite the big push in the final weeks, AF region still did not hit its quota.
- AS region also did not hit the quota (due to the travel ban). Whilst some people from the banned countries were able to get their visas, the majority of affected people had no possibility to be approved.
- In taking nearly 20k visas (over 20k once AOS is added in) EU region was allowed to use more than its quota. This shows there was a redistribution to that region in particular, and shows a very high number of visas for relatively low number of cases.
- OC region met the quota nicely within a very predictable final number.
- SA region also met the quota – again, fairly predictably.
This was a year of many ups and downs. There are always cases where people don’t make it through – and although 48000 have had a positive, life changing success, there are thousands left in the cold. It’s a brutal process, but that is made clear from the first letter that points out the Green Card is not guaranteed.
Those interested in more data, and country specific details can go to Xarthisius’ site. A BIG thanks to him for his efforts in providing the data in a format that is easy to understand.
A BIG thanks is also due to the people who have scraped data this year – shown below is the names and scraped count for the “top” 25. I truly hope some of these folks got their Green Cards this year, they deserve it for their selfless work!
DV2019 CEAC data will be available in the system on January 1, so the scraping will be needed then. For now, we can rest our fingers!
|NO NAME GIVEN||72939|
October 4, 2018 at 20:57
I want to thank you very much for your efforts this year and forever. Good luck to the selected of 2019 DV.
October 4, 2018 at 21:00
Hey, Does the “AP” stand for application pending , do they still have chance to get the visa delivered? also, what about the status “Ready”, does it mean visa is ready and it will be delivered.
October 4, 2018 at 21:35
AP stands for Administrative Processing. Since DV2018 is over, and case not already issued will not get visas – so none of the AP and READY cases will get approved at this point.
October 5, 2018 at 15:05
So what READY actually means?
October 5, 2018 at 15:20
Read the FAQ please.
October 5, 2018 at 22:48
I read it. But if I look data from 2018 there are still cases from EU that are ready and CN is 1000 to 2000… Dose this mean that applicant did not show at interview or….
October 5, 2018 at 23:43
October 5, 2018 at 20:46
October 4, 2018 at 22:16
Hi Brit, Thanks a lot for the appreciated efforts. Why do you think Asia had a high number of refusals compared to issued? Was that because of the travel ban?
October 4, 2018 at 22:25
Yes – just as I said in the thoughts above…
October 5, 2018 at 06:33
The embrassy this morning is telling me that they will contact me soon to receive my documents from the embrassy.what does it mean,was my visa approved ?thanks and which documents does the embrassy return when the visa is not approved.
October 5, 2018 at 14:37
I don’t know the outcome of your case or what documents will be returned.
October 4, 2018 at 23:41
This shows there was a redistribution to that region in particular, and shows a very high number of visas for relatively low number of visas.
I don’t get that. What do you man?
October 5, 2018 at 00:04
There was a typo. Re-read it.
October 5, 2018 at 03:24
Thanks to the redistribution I got mine on Sept 13th 🙂 Eu238xx here
Already in the US… thanks Brit
And big thanks to “Malvina” – I am amazed with the number of scraps :))))
October 5, 2018 at 03:46
October 5, 2018 at 04:54
Hi Simon, I was looking at the DV2018 CEAC Data and its interesting to note that in the month of August many cases in AF region above 39000 were actually issued.
October 5, 2018 at 05:08
Yes, the region was current in August and retrogressed in September.
October 5, 2018 at 08:24
Hi Brit – “Whilst some people from the banned countries were able to get their visas” – any clues how they managed? A part from having a second passport, could you thinknof anything else that might help? Thanks
October 5, 2018 at 14:51
Various exceptions, living in the USA, living in Canada, dual citizenships.
November 2, 2018 at 01:48
Hi brit im still in shock that i made it and now im in tacoma seattle .i can not believe that my visa was approved on september 9th,2018 .
Im the one that i contacted you and i told u that im acwelder and got my high school diploma in the july 17th 2018 .one month before the interview .
After i will setle down i will put my experience hete ..
Juat i want to yell you thank you so much
November 2, 2018 at 03:01
October 5, 2018 at 09:58
Hi Brit my DV2019 case number is AF21xxx. Can you please predict what month my number will be up for the visa bulletin?
October 5, 2018 at 14:55
October 5, 2018 at 10:43
So Simon, Can we consider dv19 with dv18 as the same or need to wait for 1st Jan??
October 5, 2018 at 15:02
We will know more in January, but even then we will never be certain until July.
October 5, 2018 at 13:30
Good day, Simon! There are a lot cases in status “Ready” – 2000 for EU. Why it happend? People sent their DS-260 but don’t come to the interview? Or something else? It is around 10% of all for EU
October 5, 2018 at 15:10
Yes – many are “no shows” – people that don’t show up for their interview. Some will be AP or refused cases where the embassy did not correctly update the CEAC records.
October 5, 2018 at 20:11
Hi Simon. Thanks for the final roundup. Interesting how it finally added up. I’m glad not many visas went to waste after all. In the end, EU did get a pretty decent number. However the VB cut-off to meet that number was incredibly low compared to any previous years. I’m just curious, in the end do you think it has to do with the way DS260s were processed, or is it due to a much higher response rate from some countries? If that’s the case, why the dramatic increase this year? Something to do with agents handling the process perhaps?… In any case, thanks again for all your input and great work keeping people informed on your site.
October 5, 2018 at 22:15
October 6, 2018 at 15:34
Whoops! Somehow missed that. Thanks. Very interesting article. This trend means that there’s going to be SIGNIFICANTLY more people getting GC from Eastern Europe and thus SIGNIFICANTLY less people from Western Europe getting throgh the process, not only because of higher selectees numbers but also because most of those numbers are low VB numbers. In the end, we could see the BIG 5 turn into BIG 7 or BIG 8… or get to the point where all the BIG 5 get to the maximum number of GC allowed per country (3,500) and therefore add up to about 17,500, leaving around 1,000-2,000 for the rest of EU. Is this an exageration, or could this trend actually consolidate into something like this? At which point, I think someone should consider splitting EU into Western EU and Eastern EU…
October 6, 2018 at 19:57
The definition of the region is part of law – so – they cannot split. If one or several countries monopolize the entries – they will gain more visas. That is the process, it won’t change.
October 5, 2018 at 20:59
Thank you for your efforts Brit , your posts helped me a lot in this insane DV2018 , I already got my visa AF37*** , and big thanks to these scrapers also . ?
October 5, 2018 at 21:45
Dv2020 i want to apply with my wife can we use one email both of us?
October 5, 2018 at 22:21
October 6, 2018 at 12:43
Hi Simon I’ll tell you something like a miracle. I’m egyptian. My interview was on September 12th. Administrative procedures have been entered. But the miracle occurred on 30 September at three o’clock in the afternoon before the end of working hours by one hour only and became issued. & Today I have my passport
October 6, 2018 at 14:33
Your interpretation of the word miracle is different to mine, but I am very happy for you.
October 9, 2018 at 10:50
Hello brit I can’t login ds 260, when I login says that “The Case Number entered is currently unavailable”. my case number is 2019AF67** is any proplem
October 9, 2018 at 14:00
If you need to make changes to the DS260, contact KCC.
October 14, 2018 at 18:00
1- Can I modify my initial adress for receving my green card or SSN at airport without no risky?
2- I intend to go in a State different to the adress of my sponsor. That’s possible?
October 14, 2018 at 18:48
1. You can modify it – it isn’t certain they will get it right.
October 14, 2018 at 19:25
Thanks but If I understand that’s not garantee if you change it at POE, you will get it at the new adress given?
December 12, 2018 at 16:57
Thanks for the information and update. Remain blessed
December 25, 2018 at 10:23
Good morning simon I have analyzed the data ceac of xarthisius but I do not understand some things in 2015 issured are in europe 19095, in 2017 issured are 19914, in 2018 issured are19787, in short the number of issured are very similar same thing for the number of refused that in these years are about 10% each year …. then over the years the number issured and number rejected are very similar because then the number of maximum cases are so different dv 2015 cutoff is about eu45000 while dv 2018 is about eu25000? In 2015, many people did not complete the ds 260 or did not appear in the embassy for the interview while in 2018 everyone compiled the ds 260 and went to the interview? With similar initial data and rejected …. I can not understand why the case number cutoff for Europe is so different. I hope you can understand my question and can give me a motivation … I can not understand … thank you very much for your explanations up very useful for me and merry Christmas
December 25, 2018 at 18:13
The number varies year to year because of the density of the cases, and where those cases come from. Derivative rate can vary from country to country.