The first Visa bulletin for the DV2022 processing year has been released. It is the VB for October interviews. The numbers are low, and that is not a surprise, it’s pretty normal. Theoretically, cases below these numbers in each region (or country where it says “except), would be scheduled for interview. BUT in order to be scheduled your DS260 AND documents must have been processed by KCC. Because KCC have been focused on DV2021 processing, I suspect that not many cases would actually be ready for scheduling. So – if your case number is UNDER these numbers, that means your case is “current” but will only be scheduled if you are “ready for scheduling” (also known as “DQ” or “Documentarily Qualified”). If your case becomes DQ at a later date then you would be scheduled in the next available month after being DQ (subject to the embassy having capacity).
To be clear, I expect very few interviews to be arranged in October. October to December is generally slow each year, but this year will be slower than normal. The embassies are still working under the tiered priority system that is being fought in court right now. While it is in place though it means that the embassies will not accept a normal level of DV cases, and KCC will therefore hold back some cases even if those cases are DQ and current. This is the behavior that we are fighting right now in front of Judge Mehta, and if needed, there will be lawsuits for DV2022!
Regarding DV2021, I said in a video a couple of days ago that DV2021 interviews were almost over, because there were signs that the government was “moving on” to DV2022. This VB is further evidence of that, so it seems likely that we have only a small chance of getting further interviews, although I would NOT be surprised to see a few more interviews sent over the next few days. But we are obviously close to the end, and then the remaining hope lies with the lawsuit.
People will now lose their minds trying to predict the final numbers or find a year to compare these numbers to in order to predict whether they are safe to get an interview. Let me say, as I have said many times before, IT DOES NOT WORK LIKE THAT. You can’t take these numbers and assume each month will increase by that number. If you don’t understand why not, well there is plenty of time for you to learn about the draw process, holes, and the limited countries that cause reducing density.
Those that are current, and have forms processed and documents early enough, can normally expect their 2NL in the next 2 to 3 weeks from now. This is supposed to be the same every month. VB from the 8th to the 15th of each month, and 2NLs in the second half of the month. For the last few months there have been 2NLs in daily batches. I would expect all the October interview 2NLs to have all been sent by the end of this month. The end of the month really means THE END OF THE MONTH. Please don’t waste my time later this month asking about 2NLs. Please. They can be sent right up until the last day of the month.
To those new to looking at VBs, let me explain what the “except” XXX country means – and you can also read this post on how to read the visa bulletin.
Processing is spread out over the full year. You can see the progress of the two previous years in this post about basic questions. However, some countries have a high number of selectees and those selectees are concentrated in the lower case numbers. For various reasons, mainly to do with embassy capacity, KCC slow down certain countries as compared to the region. So – in Africa, any case with a case number shown as under the new number can be interviewed but for cases from Egypt, that number is lower. That isn’t a big problem, it just “slows down” those countries a little more than the rest of the region. Since selectees from those countries all have lower case numbers, this slowing down does not present any risk. It does not (at this point) mean they won’t allow all selectees an interview from those countries.
To understand why some countries get lower case numbers, read this article about the lottery draw process.