Yesterday I posted an article explaining how the new document procedure has impacted the process thus far, causing low issued numbers. I think my concern might need further clarification. This is something that mostly affects EU and AF region. AS region is fine, there are ample visas, progress up to now is fine and there is time left. OC and SA are also OK – so I am not going to get into specifics for AS, SA or OC regions.
For EU and AF, we can try and calculate the likely backlog based on an assumption of what the final response rate will be. The response rate in previous years is measured as cases (disregarding holes) that submit their DS260 and therefore get scheduled for interviews. Now, there is an extra step – submitting documents. So – there could be some cases that submit their DS260 but never submit their documents. In theory (based on the updated instructions), that should mean those cases are not scheduled for interview. So – again, that means looking at cases which are scheduled for interview. The response rate always “grows” over time, since someone can delay submission of the DS260 for many months after the initial results announcement. In fact, there will be cases that submit as late as May and June this year that still get scheduled for interviews.
The source data for the calculations below are the data files on Xarthisius’ site. A big thanks to him for creating the process and hosting the data and of course to the willing scrapers. Two scrapers have solved over 20,000 captchas , so a big thank you to Petr and Mena (plus Anthony, Mena’s son!). There are three others who have solved over 10,000 captchas also, Recocanovic, Anna and Xhana – again, an awesome effort, and much appreciated.
OK – so how do we get a response rate to start with. Well – that is really a matter of prediction – so it is not a number we can be 100% certain about, but we can take last years numbers and adjust them. The response rate for EU last year was 66%, and AF region was 64%. Since the new document procedure will now miss some cases who don’t go through the additional step of submitting documents, we should lower both those numbers. Because I have observed a higher “no show” rate in AF region in previous years, I think it is wise to assume a bigger reduction for AF than EU – so let’s take our assumptions based on 59% for EU and 55% for AF. I cannot be certain of those numbers – it could be higher or lower in the end. By the way – for those calculating based on prior year success rates, remember to adjust those rates because no shows, AP and refusals will be lower since people have jumped through an extra hoop and have shown documents prior to being scheduled.
So then we can take those assumed response rates and use them to calculate how many cases should be responses, compare to how many are responses so far and look at the remaining cases (not yet current) to calculate how many of those will want interviews.
It is important to note that I am NOT talking about quotas and caps here. I am simplifying and assuming there are enough visas for all. That may or may not be the case – again – we really have to wait and see based on new issued rates, derivative rates and so on. So – this is really about remaining demand and whether there is logistical capacity for that demand.
For EU, there are real 11927 cases already current (below 21900) and 3158 cases left above 21900. Of the 11927, 5313 are “responses” meaning a response rate of 44.5%. If we assume a response rate of 59%. that means there are 1724 cases, already current, but not yet scheduled – in other words – the “backlog”. Of the remaining 3158 cases we could assume that 1863 of them will respond. So that is a total of 3587 cases that would need to be scheduled in the last 4 months of interviews. The May interviews in EU region were 1009, and that is in line with (or even a little lower than) what I have seen in previous years. So – I think capacity will be OK in EU – it’s just a matter of whether KCC can keep the numbers up with the new procedure.
OK – so now the same exercise for AF region.
For AF, there are real 16098 cases already current (below 24500) and 8925 cases left above 24500. I am ignoring the affect of Egypt on these numbers, so this is somewhat incorrect – but close enough to make the point. Of the 16098, 6688 are “responses” meaning a response rate of 41.5%. If we assume a response rate of 55%. that means there are 2166 cases, already current, but not yet scheduled – in other words – the “backlog”. Of the remaining 8925 cases we could assume that 4909 of them will respond. So that is a total of 7075 cases that would need to be scheduled in the last 4 months of interviews. The May interviews in AF region were 1137, and that is lower than capacity I have seen in previous years. So – we need to see higher number of interviews for AF region. And again it is a matter of whether KCC can keep the numbers up with the new procedure.
I hope this helps people understand a little better. I know I am going to get some questions from people who have not bothered to read this whole article – so those people will simply be told to read the article.
April 9, 2019 at 12:25
Hi Brit. How hv u bn? I submitted documents without email from KCC on march 21 , i didn’t get valid email from KCC till now. My case number is AF 254XX. What shall I do please? Thanks in advance.
April 9, 2019 at 14:05
Wait at least a month, maybe two months.
April 9, 2019 at 14:35
Even if I am going to be current for June? And I didn’t add 000 before my case number is that a problem? Thanks again
April 9, 2019 at 16:27
Your documents need the correct case number. Correct that. As for timeline – I explained already.
April 9, 2019 at 16:40
he is late …. your number is sure this will be up to date ….. Why do you have to say he should take 2 month ??
April 9, 2019 at 16:59
So that he doesn’t freak out when he misses the June interviews which is possible with the backlog and his late submission (and which is more likley given he gave them the wrong case number).
I have learned that it is better to give people an expectation that the process will be slow – (because it often is) and then a faster process (if that happens) will be a pleasant surprise and people spend less time stressing out for no reason (as you yourself have, time and time again).
April 10, 2019 at 07:26
Is there a possibility of knowing backlogs per embassy provided that if we do some scraping per country?
sorry if that is a naive question just been curious, if computer science/IT solves that in this case
April 10, 2019 at 16:17
You cannot scrape by country. You can analyze the data that has been scraped though – feel free.
April 11, 2019 at 08:47
Okay, understood. Thank you for your time and answer
April 10, 2019 at 08:44
Hi Brit. I submitted documents without email from KCC on Feb 22 , i didn’t get valid email from KCC till now. My case number is AF 23XXX. and i asked kcc
I am current for May, but According to the new document submission procedure ,I have send all the required documents electronically, however i have not received any notification to know the documents valid and complete so far . please let me know satisfied or not.
kccdv send me this fast email
After sending documents to [email protected], you will receive an automatic reply to your email. If there are no attachments, the auto reply explains there are no documents attached to the email. If there are attachments, the auto reply explains we received your email and are currently processing your documents. Please allow time for processing of your documents. Documents are processed in numerical order, based on lottery rank number. Once KCC has processed your documents, we will let you know if anything is missing or if we have received everything needed.
Your forms have been received and are currently processing. Allow several weeks for processing. Interviews are scheduled numerically based on case numbers that have completed processing. Once the Kentucky Consular Center has finished processing your DS-260, you will receive an email from the Kentucky Consular Center giving you instructions to complete in order for your case to continue processing.
In order for the Kentucky Consular Center to assist with inquiries regarding a specific Diversity Visa (DV) case, you must provide the Principal Applicant’s full name, complete case number, and date of birth in the following format (MMDDYYYY) as entered on the original entry. Please remember that the Kentucky Consular Center does not have the authority to tell you whether or not your specific case will be disqualified. Only a consular officer can do that at the time of your visa interview. Do not send any paper documents to the Kentucky Consular Center.
after this what advice me brit
thank you for all
April 10, 2019 at 16:21
Ask KCC whether they are satisfied with the documents you send or not.
April 10, 2019 at 16:38
i send the document and the auto reply explains we received your email and are currently processing your documents
April 10, 2019 at 16:45
An auto reply is exactly that – automatic. It doesn’t mean anything.
April 10, 2019 at 17:01
the auto replay
The Kentucky Consular Center (KCC) has received your email and is currently processing your documents. This email address, [email protected], is only used for applicants to provide the Kentucky Consular Center (KCC) with documents required to continue processing Diversity Visa applications. [email protected] does not respond to inquiries. If you have any Diversity Visa related questions, please email [email protected] with your case number, complete name, and date of birth, as entered on your original entry.
April 10, 2019 at 17:13
What advice me brit thanks
April 10, 2019 at 18:16
April 13, 2019 at 09:44
still now kcc not send me email about document variety please help me brit how much weeks to patient please please. i don’t know what am i doing
God bless you
April 13, 2019 at 14:50
Send your documents.
April 10, 2019 at 09:35
I’m from Afghanistan.i was 4 years old I wen to school now I have high school degree .I got high school degree on age of 16 .here 4 or 5 years old children usually goto school
Is it make problem my certificate in interview .
April 10, 2019 at 16:22
I don’t know whether that meets the level of education required in your country or not.
April 10, 2019 at 13:46
Thank you Simon for this in-depth analysis. That was quite helpful.
I did the same exercise for AS (since my CN is in AS region) and came to the following conclusions:
– There are 5797 cases that are current which are below 7800 the latest VB, and 2500 cases will remain after 7800
– Out of the 5797 current cases, 2825 are “responses” meaning a 48% response rate. So if we assume a 55% overall response rate, this means that the backlog is about 364 cases. It looks like this backlog is mainly for Nepal.
– With 4 VBs left, the total cases to be scheduled for interviews will be 1740 cases, which looks very reasonable in my opinion.
April 10, 2019 at 16:31
Well AS is not a problem anyway…
April 12, 2019 at 22:52
hello Brit!! Kcc is not changing the process of document processing ….. That’s a good thing ??? Eu cn 30000 has received the request and confirmation that the documents are ok …. Eu 21000 or 22000 did not receive email for sending documents …. Can we give an explanation for this phenomenon ????
April 12, 2019 at 22:55
Honestly, wait and see.
April 14, 2019 at 20:29
Hello sir when is the Dv 2020 results coming back?
May 2, 2019 at 18:25
8th May 2019
April 16, 2019 at 08:33
Hi brit my variety late may be this problem
1- my mother grand Father name spelling ds260 and birth certificate not the same
2 – my Father grand Father name spelling ds260 and birth certificate not the same
3- my birth date month October, but instead of October write obtm
all this are only my problem not kcc problem ,my question is brit
1- you agree with me validity delay by this problem ?
2- I have a chance to change my birth certificate and send again the new certificate to kcc ?
thank you so much
God bless you
April 16, 2019 at 09:25
sorry i to say Hi brit my validity late may be this problem
April 17, 2019 at 01:29
2. You should decide that for yourself.
April 17, 2019 at 06:23
I know that should be decide for myself, I don’t know what happen after that i need your help because you are Experienced
thank you so much
God bless you
April 17, 2019 at 22:51
I have ZERO experience of living in your country and procedures about changing documents in that country etc.
April 18, 2019 at 07:18
sorry i mean you are Experienced and a good adviser about dv not my country, i said that if it is change my documents my country b/c that is typing error and send to kcc the new one, my question is the new documents affect my case ? i need your help
thank you so much
God bless you
April 18, 2019 at 13:21
I have nothing to add. Read what I already answered.
April 25, 2019 at 17:45
It almost one year since I started this dv journey,finally got visa from US Nairobi embassy,USA here we come.Thanks alot brits u have been there for ups n downs AF 14,experience:when did u finish high school,2: r u married,What did u do after high school,:do u have any kids,4: ur host name,how many children do he have,how often u talk,Have u ever What does he do for living,That’s it she asked for original police certificate,and host IRS
April 26, 2019 at 02:11
Brit, what’s host IRS
May 1, 2019 at 17:32
Hello Diana…. i am a uganda CN 39**** CAN i pliz tok to u
April 30, 2019 at 20:23
I haven’t received an interview mail, my case number is AF31***
April 30, 2019 at 20:33
Have you sent documents? When?
Have you checked they are satisfied with your documents? When?
May 1, 2019 at 03:28
i read your article
i am from Egypt
my num is af146**
my case is current since April 2019
submitted my ds early ( may 2018 , amended it in Sep 2018) and was asked to send the documents in November 2018 and i did and i received a confirmation that documents received ,
whats wrong ? is it the backlog ? or they will skip me ??
May 1, 2019 at 04:03
Check with KCC.
May 1, 2019 at 17:38
Hlo Brit, well im really sori about this but Im buzzing at the moment…. CN 39*** expecting to be current in the next VB, i had sent my docs earlier in Feb, they were not varified so today i Called kcc and i was told to resend the docs…. at the moment my police cert is expired coz it was in jan and lasts 3 months.. i resent the very documents i sent bfr…. shud i be hopefull may recieve a 2nl fr july?.. . Thank you
May 1, 2019 at 21:54
I don’t know for sure. Wait and see.
May 1, 2019 at 18:20
Can interviews be delayed. ?I want to reopen ds 260 because I made a mistake. Case number 29670
May 1, 2019 at 21:57
Every time someone gives a case number without a year and region, an angel dies.
Every time someone asks a question that is answered in the FAQ, an angel dies.
You just killed two angels.