Thanks to the scraper software developed by Xarthisius, and the efforts of our band of CAPTCHA solvers, we are getting good data about the number of cases that get scheduled for interviews. If you take a look at the charts provided by Xarthisius you will be able to see the impact on each region of the 2NLs that were just sent out. To understand the data, go to the charts, pick the region you would like to study, and move the time bar back and forth to the 23rd, 24th and 25th.
So – to use EU as an example, take a look below.
First we see the file before the 2NLs were sent out.
Next, on the 24th we can see the 2NLs have been sent, but the embassies have not yet “accepted” the cases, so they are showing as “In Transit”.
Then finally we see the embassies are starting to accept the cases – which then get the status of “READY”.
Go ahead and play with the charts yourself to see the effect for yourself. Hopefully this helps people understand what the heck the status codes of in transit and ready actually mean.
Now – by comparing the files we can see that the number of interviews scheduled in each region was as follows:
AF – 1553
EU – 1156
AS – 187
OC – 74
SA – 71
Remember – these are CASES that got scheduled – not people. Each case has the selectee PLUS any derivatives.
If we assume that the numbers above represent the monthly “capacity” for the number of interviews the embassies can handle, we can guesstimate the visa bulletin progress for the coming months. By calculating the response rate (which will slightly grow over the coming months), we can guess how many cases have to become current to meet the capacity levels shown above. Of the big three regions, EU is the easiest to guess because there are no VB limited countries.
For a rough idea of how to do that guesstimate, here is the method.
Currently the EU response rate is 54%, so to get 1156 interviews KCC would have to make around 2000 cases current. That will take us to between 17000 to 17500 next month (April interviews), and about 21500 to 22000 the month after (May interviews). As I have said before that pace is MORE than ample. Remember, longer term forecasting is obviously inaccurate so we should continue to wait and see. The real question is when the regional quotas are reached, but at least people should be able to understand that the VB pace seems well understandable and sensible at the moment.
February 1, 2018 at 22:30
Hi simon I just came USA 1week ago but could not get social security card that’s why I didn’t get job do have any idea how long does it take.
February 1, 2018 at 22:32
2 to 3 weeks typically.
February 3, 2018 at 03:53
Thanks this just helped as well I,ve been here for a week too went to the social security office today to get my number but i was asked to come back in 10days
February 2, 2018 at 10:03
I don’t know how to calculate
Please let me know when my interview
Could be 2018Af254**
I live in jakarta
February 2, 2018 at 14:56
Wait and see.
February 6, 2018 at 11:39
Please do the calculation for the AF. I would really appriciate it. Similar like what you did for EU.
February 6, 2018 at 14:24
In a few days the VB will be out.
February 2, 2018 at 17:53
Hi Simon !
my case number is EU294**
i want to know have chanse for interviews
February 2, 2018 at 19:08
Read some of the recent articles I have published.
February 13, 2018 at 20:34
My case number is 2018AF00019893. And I haven’t yet sent my form because I’m still waiting for my baby’s passport .do you think I still have a chance to get an interview even after they’ve passed my case number
February 13, 2018 at 20:58
Yes. However, you do NOT need to wait for the passport to submit. You can use your passport number on the DS260 for the child. Change it later, or even at the interview.
February 14, 2018 at 10:28
I tried that but when I click submit it didnt move I kept clicking and clicking but it wouldn’t move ..so I thought that maybe it’s because of my passport number. What could be the problem then?
February 14, 2018 at 17:15
There is usually a message. You may have a pop up blocker turned on so you are not seeing the message.
If it is a male under 26, make sure you have clicked the link on the last page about selective service.
February 14, 2018 at 11:50
when you submit the DS try to enter your case number without the zeros between region and your number
like : 2018AF19893
February 2, 2018 at 19:44
What about Yemenis winers
Is there any update
we are suffering
February 2, 2018 at 20:26
February 3, 2018 at 09:27
Hi! Birit.is tha must to have i-134 sponsor for all DV applicants at interview?
February 3, 2018 at 17:01
That varies by embassy and even by case.
February 3, 2018 at 09:46
hi! if a dv applican’t have i-134,affidavit support,can cause visa denaid?
February 3, 2018 at 17:00
It depends on the embassy and the case, but yes – people can be denied for not satisfying the public charge concerns.
February 3, 2018 at 13:07
Hi brit simon,nice job u are doing as always, plz answer me and clarify me on the following questions
1. Are those from the banned countries receiving 2nl letter?I happen to come from one of the countries so I am worried
2. If they are receiving the 2nl letter then any idea if their visas are grantedor put on AP,I am really Worried,I haven’t been able to relate to those from same affected countries with early case numbers who are supposed to have been called thus u are the only one to give me a – near to perfection – answer
Once again thanks in anticipation sir
February 3, 2018 at 16:58
2. The only people from banned countries who can be approved are those with dual citizenship. If you don’t have that, your best idea is to delay the interview, and hope the travel ban is removed.
February 4, 2018 at 07:54
Hi my case number is 2018AS13*** did i need to wait or no ? did you thank i will be have interview
February 4, 2018 at 14:33
Wait and see
February 4, 2018 at 17:34
Ahmed where u located at ?
February 11, 2018 at 04:23
February 23, 2018 at 23:01
My case number is close to 13000, what country are you from?
February 24, 2018 at 17:31
Where u from Ahmad ? Would u her you email ?
February 4, 2018 at 08:57
Hi dear Brit. I have some question:
2. ENDING THE VISA LOTTERY: President Donald J. Trump has proposed ending the visa lottery system and reallocating the visas it currently distributes.
3. I think that (predict) my interview will be in August And what will I do if this law is passed? 🙁
February 4, 2018 at 14:32
Even if a law is passed, it doesn’t affect DV2018.
February 4, 2018 at 16:03
thank u for reponsesir but could u please clear this on detail? How DV2018 applicant wont be canceled ? Thanks.
February 4, 2018 at 17:15
Because all suggested versions of the law being propsed start in day 1 of NEXT fiscal year – i.e. October 1.
February 4, 2018 at 15:44
how you explain the total number in your excel sheet for all winners for all regions is 110,639
the total winners in visa Bulletin for july 2017 is 115,968
AND the total of all countries winners in the same page is 105,134
February 4, 2018 at 17:08
It would help if you would make clear what you are referring to. What excel sheet? What “same page”?
February 4, 2018 at 21:51
hi brit in uganda we were 491 selected. bt my case number is af48xxx. is there any chance for interview.bcoz we are few.
February 5, 2018 at 01:22
It has nothing to do with how many selectees there are in Uganda. As for whether that number will have a chance or not – wait and see.
February 10, 2018 at 18:35
Hi albam am from uganda too n praying our numbers are high
February 5, 2018 at 06:10
is there any change?
when i insert my case number to see my statues the system is not working now??
February 5, 2018 at 15:37
I don’t know what you are referring to.
February 5, 2018 at 12:12
When we expect our case # is 23***?
February 5, 2018 at 15:28
Wait and see
February 5, 2018 at 13:01
Hi Brits. Am a DV winner AF00019xxxx. During my application and DV260 submission, I never included my husband and children. my fear is, during my interview, will it reflect some suspicions which might disqualify me coz i don’t want to go with my family but will process for them afterwards? am aged 38
February 5, 2018 at 15:27
Why do you think it’s OK to lie to the US government and then they will be fine with that later when you magically produce your family????
February 5, 2018 at 16:40
what are your thoughts on recent high AP numbers? Could it be a sign of anything, agents possibly? I also noticed there is a huge refusal rate recently (e.g. case no. 8000-8200 – Issued: 3,3%, Refused: 0,4%, AP: 3,6%). Am I too optimistic or could it be a sign of anything?
February 5, 2018 at 18:51
You are reading too much in to a small set of data.
February 5, 2018 at 21:55
will we be able to draw any trends of possible agents involvement or not befor july?
February 5, 2018 at 23:03
I would expect so – BUT there will ALWAYS be the unknown factor that means we need to wait until the last VB to know. This is like being in a dark room with a wild animal. The CEAC data is like a light switch that let’s us know what the animal is – but you are asking when we will know how much the animal weighs.
February 6, 2018 at 00:33
Hi everyone, i think we can make agents involvement simply by looking in a picture (ceac graphs that we have).
We have 5 countries with too many selectee (Albania, Russia, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Ukraine), nearly 4500. I want to inform you that here in Albania every year before dv starts happens a big campaign between some kind of agents if we can name so. Every small street office, printing or photocopy office, translator office hangs on their doors some paper flyers “Here we fill American Lottery” and their offices are full. Most of people know how to fill by themselves but choose a “professional” to do that job. They really want a chance to immigrate abroad especially United States. With a population with about 3 millions we hold the second place for refugees after Syria.
Work of these agents and our will to immigrate explains why success rate is so high for Albania. You can see it also in charts, only a tiny percentage of cases is “ready” and that explains that these cases are real and these people are in a hurry for interview. Now lets see some other countries to create a bigger image. I see some similarities in Turkey, high “success rate” and low “ready” cases. Uzbekistan and Ukraine don’t have to much success rate till now compared with “ready”, “Ap”, and “refused” cases. By now i prefer to see those “ready” cases. I don’t think those people are to lazy not showing up in their interview, i prefer to think about agents involvement who refill their ds and then lure them to engage through process, maybe i am wrong but for these to countries “ready cases” seems to me as “no response” cases. Now if i interconnect with “ap” and “refused” cases it shows that something is not going like a normal process in Uzbekistan and Ukraine (agents are involved for sure)… Russia is the other country with high selectees and as a big country is normal to have such high numbers,it is normal to be a little lazy traveling to Moscow and it is normal to think twice if you want to leave your country or not. I think Russia is going through a normal process just like other EU countries and we cant presume by now if agents are involved or not.
Sorry for this long post, its only my judgement seeing in charts.
February 6, 2018 at 04:14
Albania has a population of under 3 million people. Those three million are spread in age, but let’s assume that about 1.5 million are of the age to be interested in the DV lottery. In order to get 4500 selectees Albania had to have around 600k entrants. In other words nearly every other DV lottery age person wanted to enter the lottery. That mean (OBVIOUSLY) something radically different happened this year.
February 5, 2018 at 22:18
Well, Simon is not a magician. If he was, I believe the high-EU numbers gang would be the first awarded with Green cards for our devoted endeavor with captchas and so on 🙂 I get it that he doesn’t want to support our wishful thinking. However, I believe in his knowledge and mastery of this matter. Humbly looking for his expertise on the continuous numbers.
February 6, 2018 at 19:13
Hi Nicole, I wouldn’t mind your optimism sometimes.
I am actually waiting for a magic answer. I think magic is the only hope actually.
February 5, 2018 at 23:00
I wasnt actually expecting a magic answer- just simply wondering if trends can be recognized befor july.
February 6, 2018 at 02:43
Hi brit. Look what happened in caracas embassy. A person with 2 nacionality colombian and venezuelan but never lived in colombia only visiting for short time and asked her criminal récords for Both countries. Now she is AP and is trying to find that document.
So I have 2 nacionalities so I understaind that I have to find my criminal récord from the other country
February 6, 2018 at 06:02
When I insert my case number to statues check it’s not working is there any problems?
February 6, 2018 at 08:01
I think that there is an issue with the server. When I try it is not working too. I suppose they will fix it in a few days.
February 6, 2018 at 11:14
Now it’s working try agian
February 6, 2018 at 14:20
CEAC is not working.
February 6, 2018 at 23:28
Sorry I’m Moses Garpue Dossen from Liberia my case number is 2018AF00014811 when will I get my appointment?
February 6, 2018 at 23:38
February 7, 2018 at 04:37
Can you explain more for this article?
February 7, 2018 at 05:11
The article is self explanatory.
February 7, 2018 at 04:41
I need to know if there will be an negative impact for dv 2018.
February 7, 2018 at 05:11
February 7, 2018 at 05:14
February 7, 2018 at 05:22
Stop. I already answered this point and explained this numerous times. Don’t print this silly nonsense anymore – it just winds people up and makes me waste my time having to repeat myself over and over again. Laws take time to process and suggested laws have referenced the 1st of next fiscal year. So – enough.
February 7, 2018 at 14:04
when I checked for CEACS website it says invalid Case number . it is not still working??
February 7, 2018 at 14:28
It’s working fine.
February 7, 2018 at 17:15
Hi, thank you because you keep us with recent information,
Do you think that a safe number to SA could be under 1500 cases?
February 7, 2018 at 17:55
February 9, 2018 at 14:12
I guess AS5450 will take place at May 2018.
As you always say…wait and see
February 10, 2018 at 10:21
my fiance she send a petition on my behalf with the uscis petition i 129f and it was denied because we abondoned the process after uscis request for evidence sent to us anfd after it we broke up now i am applying for green card visa lottery in the ds 260 there is a question saying have you been visa refused i answere yes and when you answer yes they ask you to explain so i said that i had some one who field a petition on my behalf with uscis petition i 129f and it was denied because we have not sent evidence requested by uscis. my qustion is should i mention her name in the explanition or it s not necessary instead i say someone will say her name .2 my second question should i said we abondoned instead we have not sent the evidence requested by uscis thank you so much
February 10, 2018 at 14:51
You have asked this several times already (as “Che Che”, not “sam sam”). I have answered you. Please respect my time.
February 10, 2018 at 18:22
The CEAC data currently shows some 607 refused visas in AS as of now, already surpassing last year’s final refusal number by a hundred visas. Even if the travel ban is canceled tomorrow, doesn’t this by itself already raise the “safe” threshold by several hundred case numbers?
February 10, 2018 at 20:31
Maybe. That is why I have not said anything about the safe number for AS region for some months.
February 12, 2018 at 02:09
I have a question about how long it would take from the interview day to receiving green card, if I am currently living in US and need to file adjustment of status. That is assuming I would pass the interview. Thanks for your kind help in advance.
February 12, 2018 at 04:26
You become an LPR within hours or days of the interview, the GC itself usually arrives in a few weeks.
February 12, 2018 at 17:56
New VB was released.
February 14, 2018 at 04:20
Hello Brit, What is the Response Rate Asia?
is it low or High?
February 14, 2018 at 09:48
i downloaded Xarthisius’s CEAC data file of 13/2/2018
and used Excel function”SUM($H$2:$H$110639)” to calculate all the issued visas (spouse and children included) and it shows that only 13726 visas that issued, if this really the numbers of visas issued through the last 5 mouths this mean there a lot of visas for the rest of year (7 months) right?
February 14, 2018 at 11:23
You are right Ilyas but there are around 2587 AP that can be issued or refused in 4.5 months.
February 14, 2018 at 11:55
Normally wich %% go to visa approved? Also if you add all AP numbers to issued visas is still low. Am I wrong?
February 14, 2018 at 11:55
even if u added AP to Issued it will give you 16313 which just 32.62% of total visas (50000)
it is really hopeful percentage .
February 14, 2018 at 11:57
it is a really hopeful percentage.
February 14, 2018 at 13:39
what do you think about 14000 ready cases?
February 15, 2018 at 15:25
Hi , sorry to bothe, but I’m getting very confused. How is it that there is enough visas left when Brit thinks that the cutoff number will be much lower than he expected? Density is very high and I don’t see any hope for high cn . I feel stupid not understanding this whole thing
February 15, 2018 at 15:36
This was a reply to Ilyas comment
February 17, 2018 at 02:53
non of us understand 100% but we trying to guessing and made some rates by ourselves.
i had a guess and i asked Brit he told me that is normal.
any way don’t lose hope just wait and see.
at leas we have CN (low or high doesn’t matter) so we had the chance for feather pressing there millions of people who entered the DV2018 but they got the “you haven’t been selected ” message.
Always keep hoping it is a lottery nothing can be for sure.
February 14, 2018 at 17:56
That is about normal (and actually a bit HIGHER than this same point in DV2015). The pace of issuances always increases later.
February 14, 2018 at 18:48
Here you go – I answered your question and made you famous!
February 16, 2018 at 01:11
February 17, 2018 at 02:55
W AlSlam Alikom nurdapodNurdaulet 🙂
February 17, 2018 at 04:23
Ilyas you are actually right. Thank you ! I’m just nervous and worried because of high cn and I can’t download the chart, can’t make it work .
February 15, 2018 at 11:14
Brit, what is a “hole”?
February 15, 2018 at 15:18
February 28, 2018 at 16:15
Could you please make a post about your solid stance on AS region and tell us whether you have some opinion/insight or you’re not sure at all? I’ve been visiting your site everyday and as long as I see the comments, it seems that you don’t have much opinion or you don’t know much about Asia region because of several factors since it’s mostly wait and see on what you comment on Asia. I’m just a little frustrated and tired of checking all the comments to find no opinion.
February 28, 2018 at 16:43
What I have said is that AS region is affected by the travel ban and that means the outcome is unclear.
March 8, 2018 at 07:00
Kento : where u from, and what’s your case number ? U mind sharing your email address, we are also DV 2018 winner from Asia with High Case number like to get some clarification, thanks
March 13, 2018 at 08:55
Hi brit wanted to knw if u need a sponsor during your interview at the embassy and what may happen if you dnt have??
March 13, 2018 at 16:22
It varies by embassy and by case.
March 15, 2018 at 15:00
I checked the data from CEAC and I did simple calculation , since March the capacity of interview for Africa is around 2700 +- 100 real cases for march, April and May so if this rate is continue for next month with considering the hole percentage we should see 30100 for next VB (June), I know I dropped backlogs and considered derivatives rate is fixed for cases in all 4 months, so do you think it suitable calculation just for prediction or not?
Thanks for your hard work and time
March 15, 2018 at 17:53
Yes – roughly. Of course it is a bit different, because we cannot account for Egypt and Ethiopia – but – it does show the potential acceleration due to low density.
March 19, 2018 at 10:49
Hey Brit what do you think will be a cut off this year or it will go current
March 19, 2018 at 13:46
May 4, 2018 at 14:07
My situation is scaring me. My case number is 2018AF00032*** I’m from Cameroonit’s almost a year now that my family and I won the lottery. I sent the DS 160 in august of last year still no email recieve for an interviews is it normal?
May 4, 2018 at 17:09
Yes. Totally normal. Now relax and be patient.
May 7, 2018 at 10:54
Thank you for reassuring me
May 26, 2018 at 15:36
I am a lottery winner for 2018 and I am a citizen of the State of Libya. There is a decision to ban travel for Libyans. I postponed the date of the interview after lifting the travel ban on Libyans.
Question / If the ban is lifted after 30/09/2018, can I claim a US visa?
If yes. What are we guilty of losing the case?
May 26, 2018 at 16:04
No. No DV2018 visa can be approved after September 30, 2018.
July 4, 2018 at 03:36
i would like to ask you about some regarding to the dv lottery visa.
if we got selected and i have filled ds-260 with one permanent place (Ex: Florida) but after interview and visa is approved, can we flight to other state and apply green card at that state (Ex. California) ?
sorry for inconvenience.
July 4, 2018 at 05:54