Thanks to the scraper software developed by Xarthisius, and the efforts of our band of CAPTCHA solvers, we are getting good data about the number of cases that get scheduled for interviews. If you take a look at the charts provided by Xarthisius you will be able to see the impact on each region of the 2NLs that were just sent out. To understand the data, go to the charts, pick the region you would like to study, and move the time bar back and forth to the 23rd, 24th and 25th.
So – to use EU as an example, take a look below.
First we see the file before the 2NLs were sent out.
Next, on the 24th we can see the 2NLs have been sent, but the embassies have not yet “accepted” the cases, so they are showing as “In Transit”.
Then finally we see the embassies are starting to accept the cases – which then get the status of “READY”.
Go ahead and play with the charts yourself to see the effect for yourself. Hopefully this helps people understand what the heck the status codes of in transit and ready actually mean.
Now – by comparing the files we can see that the number of interviews scheduled in each region was as follows:
AF – 1553
EU – 1156
AS – 187
OC – 74
SA – 71
Remember – these are CASES that got scheduled – not people. Each case has the selectee PLUS any derivatives.
If we assume that the numbers above represent the monthly “capacity” for the number of interviews the embassies can handle, we can guesstimate the visa bulletin progress for the coming months. By calculating the response rate (which will slightly grow over the coming months), we can guess how many cases have to become current to meet the capacity levels shown above. Of the big three regions, EU is the easiest to guess because there are no VB limited countries.
For a rough idea of how to do that guesstimate, here is the method.
Currently the EU response rate is 54%, so to get 1156 interviews KCC would have to make around 2000 cases current. That will take us to between 17000 to 17500 next month (April interviews), and about 21500 to 22000 the month after (May interviews). As I have said before that pace is MORE than ample. Remember, longer term forecasting is obviously inaccurate so we should continue to wait and see. The real question is when the regional quotas are reached, but at least people should be able to understand that the VB pace seems well understandable and sensible at the moment.
January 25, 2018 at 22:54
Thanks again Brit
January 25, 2018 at 22:59
Hey Simon,
I’m not sure tu understand. For EU, how can it go from 10800 (March) to 17000 (April) with only 1156 selectes?!
Thanks.
January 25, 2018 at 23:17
March interviews are up to CN 13800. That is where the 1156 came from. The April number is a projection of 13800 PLUS ~1150 interviews.
January 26, 2018 at 04:58
But, on your table I see 10700 and not 13800.
You are saying thats it will probably jump from 10700 to 17000 in 1 month only? 🙂
January 26, 2018 at 05:45
“Currently the EU response rate is 54%, so to get 1156 interviews KCC would have to make around 2000 cases current. That will take us to between 17000 to 17500 next month (April interviews), and about 21500 to 22000 the month after (May interviews).”
This is the part I don’t get. Of course I believe you but I just need to understand better.
10700 + 2000 =/= 17500
13800 + 2000 =/= 17500
What is the 13800 number?
How you get 17500?
Thank you again…
January 26, 2018 at 06:21
The 13800 was the most recent VB. STOP and think about that. Then read the article again.
January 26, 2018 at 16:42
Don’t try to understand the calculation, first understand that Brit has roughly predicted the next VB release to be 17000-17500 for April. The latest VB we have is March and it’s at 13800. He also expecting the May VB to be around 21500-22000.
Now when it comes to calculations, you have to do the math yourself. There is a hole of around %45 after case number 14000 and considering the non-response you have to have 2000 legitimate cases per month that means around 3500-4000 additional cases. 13800+3500=17300 (17000-17500) which is what Brit is roughly estimating for the upcoming VB.
Brit, please correct me if I am wrong.
Thanks
January 26, 2018 at 16:52
Yes – roughly – but the density decreases later on After 21/22k – so pace could continue to increase somewhat. Of course, if KCC decide the limit is going to be hit early with faster pace, they might slow pace down in order to spread the embassy workload over a longer period of time. Those are decisions we cannot predict. Hence – the wait and see….
January 26, 2018 at 05:49
March starts with 10700 and April ends wiyh 16999 (acc to estimation). That means two months will cover the increment you are talking about.
And as you might know from the Visa Bulletin it is up to 13800 for March, So, how could you figure that this increasing would be in one month! 🙂
January 26, 2018 at 06:18
I don’t think you are reading what I wrote. Slow down and READ it.
January 26, 2018 at 14:24
I wrote that as a reply to Lionel.
If you still find sth wrong with my reply, I don’t know what it is
January 26, 2018 at 14:35
And my reply was to Lionel too. Your reply was accurate.
January 25, 2018 at 23:03
Does this mean that if continue with this progress by the end of september it is possible to see final cut off for EU 36 xxx?
January 25, 2018 at 23:15
The pace does not affect the quota. So – the pace is fine – the quota is discussed in other recent articles.
January 26, 2018 at 07:00
Does that mean that it is possible visas to be used early for EU and not have enough visas for bigger CN ?
January 26, 2018 at 11:13
EU can be current if the only matter is pace but the important thing is quota. There are several things effect the this like derivative rates response rates
January 26, 2018 at 17:05
Okey does this mean that with this kind of quota we are in any kind of risk for bigger cn (ex. eu348**)
January 26, 2018 at 17:25
Read my recent articles for an explanation.
January 26, 2018 at 14:33
Yes
January 25, 2018 at 23:29
Hey Brit! Does that mean that Africa might hit 22k by April or below this figure as per the new VB?
January 25, 2018 at 23:49
Have you tried applying the method?
January 26, 2018 at 00:05
I did but thought I mixed up a little.
January 26, 2018 at 00:46
OK – well we will wait and see then….
January 26, 2018 at 02:22
My case Numb AF #254** I get late to submit my form b/c I forget that I have played Dv 20116 and I complete my DS260 late October I live in jakarta Indonesia
Do u think I will meet the chance to get the 2Nl sir Briso
Just guess
January 26, 2018 at 03:38
If you have a DV2018 case – then yes.
January 26, 2018 at 18:28
Thnk u Sir britsimon
I hope so
Indeed u are good Human
And sure I will help this website
When I achieve my goal
January 26, 2018 at 02:27
In what the White House framed as a “dramatic concession” and “compromise,” Trump would accept a path to citizenship not just for the roughly 700,000 undocumented immigrants were covered by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program when it was ended. But the proposal would also cover those undocumented immigrants who meet the DACA criteria but did not sign up and even more who would be newly eligible under the proposal’s timeframe requirements — giving legal status and a pathway to citizenship to about 1.8 million people.
In return, the White House would like to see a $25 billion investment in a trust for border infrastructure and technology, as well as more funds for personnel, and an end to family migration beyond spouses and minor children. The diversity visa lottery would also be abolished, though the visas would be reallocated so that the backlog of people already waiting for family visas and high-skilled immigration green cards would be processed.
In what may end up being the most contentious piece of the proposal, the White House is also looking to close “legal loopholes” that will allow it to deport more immigrants, specifically as it relates to undocumented immigrants from countries that don’t border the United States — which would likely include changes in immigration enforcement authority that would be virtually impossible for Democrats to swallow.
The White House official sold the plan as a “compromise position” that it believes would get 60 votes in the Senate — a point White House officials underscored multiple times on Thursday — and then could be “sent over to the House for additional improvement and modification.”
One senior White House official told conservative outside groups, surrogates and congressional officials in a call Thursday that the bill “should make Democrat support to get to 60 votes a given.”
They spoke out against immigrants. So she unearthed their own immigrant ancestors
They spoke out against immigrants. So she unearthed their own immigrant ancestors
“This is legislation that really represents a bipartisan consensus point. It is extremely generous in terms of the DACA piece and then fulfills all four of the President’s priorities,” a senior White House official told reporters on Thursday. “This bill is right down the center in terms of public opinion.”
Senior White House officials who briefed reporters Thursday on the framework also expressed a pointed rejection of the Durbin-Graham bill that the White House rejected in recent weeks.
One official quipped that an agreement on immigration between Sen. Dick Durbin, a Democrat, and Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican, is “like announcing the sun has risen and there’s fish in the ocean.”
Another official also said that despite suggestions from Senate Democrats, the White House’s framework is “galaxies apart” from what Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer proposed to the President over the weekend.
White House officials said Thursday they expect lawmakers on Capitol Hill to “digest” the proposal and formulate legislative text to bring to the floor in the Senate and called it “kind of the bottom line for the President.”
But the officials signaled that while the framework should pass muster in the Senate, they did not expect it to be the basis for legislation in the House.
Instead, one senior White House official said it is “probably likely” that the two chambers will pass different bills and “end up in conference.”
The White House’s portrayal of the framework as a broad-based compromise is likely to face skepticism on Capitol Hill, where immigration reform has long been contentiously disputed. While the proposal’s pathway to citizenship for nearly 2 million undocumented immigrants will earn plaudits from many Democrats, the framework also includes several hardline immigration reforms that Democrats may find hard to swallow.
Some conservatives are also likely to oppose the pathway to citizenship that Trump is endorsing.
Those eligible will be able to become citizens in 10 to 12 years, Trump said on Wednesday, contingent on meeting work and education requirements the White House is leaving up to Congress to establish.
“If they do a great job, I think it’s a nice thing to have the incentive of, after a period of years, being able to become a citizen,” Trump said Thursday.
Conservatives push Ryan for vote on hardline immigration bill
Conservatives push Ryan for vote on hardline immigration bill
And the clock is ticking down for lawmakers to find a solution, with DACA protections expiring March 5.
If a deal can’t be reached by then, a senior White House official made clear Thursday that those immigrants whose protections expire could be subject to deportation.
“If it doesn’t work then they’ll be illegal immigrants and if they fall into the hands of ICE,” the official said. “They won’t be targeted, but if they fall into the hands of ICE … well they’ll be put into the system … and ultimately could lead to their deportation.”
CNN’s Pamela Brown contributed to this report.
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January 26, 2018 at 04:01
will they see old dv entrant record during interview
January 26, 2018 at 04:27
That is possible.
January 26, 2018 at 04:08
The people I wrote on their address in the USA when I completed the form Ds 260. Now they moved out. Can I change my form? Is this a problem if I enter a new address? Thanks.
January 26, 2018 at 04:27
You can unlock and update the form, or change at the interview.
January 26, 2018 at 04:14
Dear simon!
i have read the NVC instruction:
Please follow the instructions you received from the National Visa Center (NVC) that list the six steps you must take before NVC can schedule your visa interview appointment. This includes submitting to NVC various fees, forms and documents. Once NVC has received all the required items, they will let you know if anything is missing or incomplete. You can also find these instructions online at http://nvc.state.gov (English).
I found the second steps is paying fee, i can not find the method how to pay.
does everyone need to pay this fee before they can revived the 2NL??
January 26, 2018 at 04:27
I have said many times – IGNORE the NVC instructions.
January 26, 2018 at 04:34
do u mean all i have to do right now is patient and waiting?
Noted that I have completed my DS 260 since July 2017, till now I still get nothing, my case is AS9203…
January 26, 2018 at 04:39
Of course you heard nothing until now – your number is high so you must wait.
January 26, 2018 at 04:50
thank you for your text, i am not hesitate in waiting right now
i really appreciated hearing from you.
Have a nice day dear…
January 26, 2018 at 05:32
Dear Simon;
Correct me if I am wrong(I dont want to give false infos) thus you are the most competent and experienced on DV issues; I personnally respect you much.
Based on your recent post about the embassies monthly capacity(AF region) and the scraped data as of 24/01/2018(https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/ceacFY18.html); I tried to make VB prediction for the next month(AF region); here are my data:
1. I suppose the response rate is 50%
2. AF embassies monthly capacity : 1553 cases
So for the next VB, embassies will need approx 2330 cases.
From case AF17700 plus the 2330 cases one will easly find AF20030 WHICH is not correct(THIS IS MY UNVERIFIED POINT OF VIEW!) because between AF20030 and AF17700 there are LESS THAN 2330
REAL cases.
So in my calculation the next VB(AF region) will probably hit AF20645.
Thanks
January 26, 2018 at 06:20
Download the csv file and take out the holes (status = None). Then use REAL cases. Response should be higher than 50%
January 26, 2018 at 06:38
That’s what I did, I downloaded the data as of 24/01/2018, removed all “None” statuses then based my calculation on the remaining cases(real cases); as you said I should probably change the response rate to for example 65% and see what it will give me.
Once again, thank you for your contribution.
You are awesome. God bless you and your family.
January 26, 2018 at 12:07
Interesting…
From my workings it will probably be between 20,700 – 20,800.
Let’s wait and see though!
February 12, 2018 at 19:03
Good Job. You almost hit it. AF20645 is not far from AF21100. So now what are the predicition for the comming one. The PACE is 3400 for the past 2 months in Africe, is it going to be the rythm !!??
February 12, 2018 at 19:07
AF Density drops after this VB – so that means the pace will increase.
February 12, 2018 at 19:20
Where is the increase? It is 3400 per the past 2 releases. Do you mean the drop will impact the next VB release and the pace could higher than the 3400 not less at all ?
February 12, 2018 at 19:23
Yes I am talking about the next VB and ones after that.
February 18, 2018 at 09:00
Dear nkiliyumwami,
Thanks alot for the efforts. Our ears are kept to the ground waiting for your calculation “Predicition” for the next VB. Your are the expert and your recent calcuations were about to be exact.
Thank you Mr. nkiliyumwami. And all the appreciation for Mr. Brit and his outstanding contirbution to the DV Community. He is the one who gives the recipe and you are the one for the +*/=% calculations.
January 26, 2018 at 05:38
My case no is 50*** am from kenya do u think i will get my 2nl or the cut off might be low
January 26, 2018 at 06:21
Wait and see.
January 26, 2018 at 05:45
The no response rate for AF25000 is about 72%, plus holes at over 15%! what does that estimate mean? And the numbers scheduled per embassy…. seriously Brit this is really good but a little confusing to imagine how far they can go next month. Thank you .
January 26, 2018 at 06:23
You cannot use a number higher than the already current number to calculate response rate. So – your numbers are wrong,
January 26, 2018 at 09:30
H Mr Simon by this method
1- Do u think that Egypt cut off may be far than Africa cut off (47000)?
2-do u think AF 22000 from Egypt in safe area ?
3- from the recent visa bulletin in Africa &(Egypt and Ethiopia) limited countries we find AF& Ethiopia jump in the last two VB but Egypt still slow down do U think the diversity in AF till 20000 just in Egypt ?
thanks My dear Simon .Really i trust in u predictions
January 26, 2018 at 12:51
Hello Mena, I am at your same range, we are safe, your no is 22,000, not 32,000 so why is this great anxiety. ha ha ha
January 26, 2018 at 12:57
Heem where are you from?
January 26, 2018 at 15:01
AF/Egypt
January 26, 2018 at 18:32
Heem Can you send your phone number to communicate
January 26, 2018 at 14:27
1. Yes of course
2. I don’t know
3. I don’t know.
January 26, 2018 at 09:48
Hi Brit,
A look at the data for Accra embassy suggest very high refusal rate. What at all is it that we can’t overcome?
Is it that documents from Ghanaians are mostly not genuine?
January 26, 2018 at 14:26
fraud, lies, agents…
January 26, 2018 at 10:26
Do you think they may use NACARA quota and exceed 50,000 visas?
There were 83k+10k selectees in 2017 and the visas were not sufficient, some interviews has been canceled at Sep. So, for EU, case numbers around 30,000 were even barely safe in 2017.
January 26, 2018 at 14:24
Maybe.
January 26, 2018 at 12:37
Hi. U2 embassies issued ~300 visas per month, but another countries do more less. Does capacity of u2 country embassy limit the vb pace ?
January 26, 2018 at 14:19
To some extent, yes.
January 26, 2018 at 14:23
According to the information provided, are there variations in the predictions of numbers of maximum cases to be called by region?
January 26, 2018 at 14:36
How fast or slow you fill a bucket doesn’t change how much water it can hold.
January 26, 2018 at 14:40
How many visas are avaiable for each region during the year? Thanks
January 26, 2018 at 15:05
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-some-further-analysis/
January 26, 2018 at 16:18
Hi Simon,
Do they need I-134?
January 26, 2018 at 16:22
https://britsimonsays.com/all-about-public-charge-affidavit-of-support-i-134/
January 26, 2018 at 17:26
Thank you so much. The link is very helpful.
January 26, 2018 at 16:25
Hello Brit, i checked Excel File
Total case 13396
None=4908
blance=8488
1.What is the next VB case no On Asian Region ?
2.What is the Asian Cut OFF??or it ill be current after 2 VB ?
January 26, 2018 at 16:36
Asia is all about Nepal progress and how they handle the travel ban regarding Iran – so – no predictions from me.
January 26, 2018 at 16:43
1.Are you sure Iran Was Ban?or it was added on Main Region ?
2. Can you told to your Opinion Next VB, Please Ignore Traval Ban.
3.Are you tinking AS9xxx Is safe ?
January 26, 2018 at 16:47
1. I am not talking about the VB. I am talking about the travel ban.
2. I already told you – I don’t have a prediction.
3. Again – I already said.
January 26, 2018 at 16:30
hey dear Brit do u think 25xxx risky number for Ethiopia?tell me please
January 26, 2018 at 16:36
No
January 26, 2018 at 17:03
Hi brit for SA
October called at 190 case numbers and only attended to interview 27
November called at 135 case numbers and only attended to interview 27
December called at 100 case numbers and only attended to interview 36
With those numbers and 71 case that will be interview is possible that SA go from 800 to 1100?
Is that correct?
Thanks
January 26, 2018 at 17:32
The VB increased by 175 last month, which meant real 166 cases (accounting for holes. That yielded 71 interviews. Those are good numbers. There is no need to have faster pace than that – so I expect the next VB to remain in the 9XX range.
January 26, 2018 at 17:13
Can someone please tell me 1) How many Visas (DV1+DV2+DV3) TOTALY were issued in December in EU (only), and 2) how many Visas (DV1+DV2+DV3) were issued in October-November-December COMBINED (EU only). Thanks in advance for info.
January 26, 2018 at 17:21
Why don’t you look at the info you were already given.
https://britsimonsays.com/visa-bulletin-for-march-2018-interviews-released/comment-page-2/#comment-99476
January 26, 2018 at 17:41
Yes, I found the info. So the answers are 1) 1248 , and 2) 3924. Hmmm, not bad for three months. Thanks.
January 26, 2018 at 22:14
I wonder, are those figures correct ??
January 26, 2018 at 22:55
Those are the officially released numbers.
January 26, 2018 at 17:29
Hi Brits
Thanks for your effects in answering the worries of dv winners.
I want to ask that if you have been scheduled for interview and you were diagnosed earlier o have syphilis and you are currently taking treatment, and you make it known to the doctor during your medical exam and screening; can it lead to denial of Visa?
January 26, 2018 at 17:33
Did you check the FAQ for diseases that cause denial?
January 26, 2018 at 17:41
Britain does it mean those of use whose cn is 201816×××× we will not receive our 2nl this coming week?
January 26, 2018 at 18:54
You are not clear about your region.
2NLs for March interviews have already been sent. The next 2NLs won’t go out for another month.
January 26, 2018 at 17:43
I am trying to apply this Method to SA but its kinda of a slightly different for the next Visa Prediction. Can you help me on this one …at least give us some info on SA
January 26, 2018 at 18:56
https://britsimonsays.com/interview-capacity-visa-bulletin-pace/comment-page-1/#comment-100692
January 26, 2018 at 18:26
Hey sir please do reply. Im from nepal and my case number is AS69XX. Please do reply ?
January 26, 2018 at 18:57
Reply to what question????
January 26, 2018 at 18:54
Hi dear Brit. Thank you a lot of for help. I appreciate you. My interview will be in July. I read news and I am worry at now. What does it mean? Thanks beforehand
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/26/politics/immigration-border-wall-daca-trump-congress/index.html
January 26, 2018 at 18:59
It does not affect DV2018.
January 26, 2018 at 21:31
50,000 from the eliminated diversity visa lottery — to work through a backlog of millions of people waiting in a line upward of 30 years long for their green cards. The bill does extend an olive branch to the left in not making the cuts retroactive — meaning anyone already in line would still be eligible. Groups on the right are outraged that the plan would mean potentially 10 to 20 years before cuts to immigration begin.
January 26, 2018 at 21:37
At first, the Trump proposal would use the green cards from the eliminated categories — plus the 50,000 from the eliminated diversity visa lottery — to work through a backlog of millions of people waiting in a line upward of 30 years long for their green cards. The bill does extend an olive branch to the left in not making the cuts retroactive — meaning anyone already in line would still be eligible. Groups on the right are outraged that the plan would mean potentially 10 to 20 years before cuts to immigration begin.
January 26, 2018 at 21:35
How did you know your interview is in July?
January 26, 2018 at 19:43
When check my cn, 2018 16xxxx it’s still says it is with kcc. I don’t know what to do
January 26, 2018 at 19:54
When check my cn Af201816xxxx it’s still says it is with kcc. I don’t know what to do
January 26, 2018 at 21:17
Look at your name – exercise some patience.
January 26, 2018 at 23:09
My husband and I had a bet going on this one. I won. Thanks! 😉
January 26, 2018 at 23:29
LOL – it was too tempting.
January 26, 2018 at 21:51
If the random lottery was canceled by Congress, would it affect the 2018 winners?
January 26, 2018 at 22:55
No.
January 28, 2018 at 10:19
Thanks
January 27, 2018 at 05:50
Hello Brit!
I see some people here are saying that there have been cases in prior years of september interviews cancelled due to the fact that visas were out earlier. Do you know of such cases, or are those just rumours? Is it possible that if one finds out in july that he has an interview in september, there may still be a chance that visas run out prior to that and the interview will be cancelled? Or even worse, I also read among the comments that some people went to the interview and spent a lot of money and were informed only after that visas are out. This seems rather shady and hard to believe, so your answer will be much appreciated!
I do “wait and see” patiently, but these “stories” somehow made me wonder if they are real or utter crap. Thank you very much for everything you do on this blog. Be blessed! (Bianca, EU34xxx)
January 27, 2018 at 06:00
Yes that has happened, but not exactly as you heard. In one previous year interviews for Iranians were suddenly cancelled as the cap was exceeded.
At the end of DV2017, visas ran out – scheduled interviews were honored, but people clearing AP, and adjustment of status cases were told there were no visas left. Those two scenarios do not have a visa slot allocated, which IS the case for CP scheduled interviews, as long as the case completes in the original scheduled month.
January 27, 2018 at 10:06
Dear Brit,
The number of visas issued on DEC 2017 for EU is 1248. This number represents total number of visas issued or the DV visas with derivatives ?
Since the EU number cases for EU in DEC 2017 was 1500, the visa rate per total cases is aprox. 80%. With a 20 % hole rate, it looks like all the real cases received visas.
What am I doing wrong?
Thnak you!
January 27, 2018 at 15:20
With derivatives. That answers your whole question.
January 27, 2018 at 10:19
Good post. I calculated around 21200 for March and around 24600 for april,…and then a huge increase for the following months (although it’s too early to predict)
January 27, 2018 at 11:30
Sorry, I meant for April and May and I was talking about AF. And now I understand why Britsimon said case numbers are safe up to 45.-47.000 (conservative guessing)
January 27, 2018 at 23:07
Saabe, I rem Mr. Brit said cases at 45k are safe in an earlier article but on one of his recent articles, he estimated 46600, though he said the numbers could go higher than that. But when did he say 47000 is save? Or did you, Sir?
January 28, 2018 at 01:58
Predictions are APPROXIMATE.
January 28, 2018 at 07:44
My first attempt at making a prediction gave me a final cutoff of 46468, which is close to britsimon’s number. It doesn’t matter if it’s 46-plus or 47. Predictions are approximate and to be more or less reliable, one should be very conservative when choosing variables. In a perfect world, it would easily reach 50k,…but statistics and predictions are not exact sciences,…since you can’t control future events and circumstances. Personally,….I would take 45xxxx as the frontier of the safe numbers. This doesn’t mean higher numbers can’t be reached,…it just mean one should be prudent and plan his moves with some common-sense.
You can do it yourself and spare Britsimon this type of questions. You have an excellent chart by xarthisius, all you need is a calculator, some elementary school mathematical skills,….and above all, common-sense . It’s easy, just try it.
January 28, 2018 at 07:58
You’re 100% right. Dear brothers and sisters let us spare Mr Simon “prediction questions”. We have “almost” all information we need to do it.
Regards,
January 28, 2018 at 19:49
“approximate”- yes that’s the word. I have feelings my high AFCN will go current. “Positive” is the spirit. Thanks saabe, Mr. Brit.
February 13, 2018 at 09:47
Saabe, your prediction for April turned out to be quite accurate (21200 vs 21100). Can you share your method/ assumptions for AF?
January 27, 2018 at 13:51
So Pls can you just give a range for the next visa bulletin for AF? I don’t know how to calculate please
January 27, 2018 at 15:14
20 to 21
January 27, 2018 at 18:34
thank you
January 27, 2018 at 15:50
Hi Brit,
I thought I will have the interview earlier when I was checking previous years, and that’s why I selected to have it in my country. I got visa for a year to Canada last year, which I was hoping I will use as a backup plan if green card won’t work out. I have to activate them until the end of April. But now with the interviews moving slowly I’m considering to go to Canada, because I think my interview will be maybe earliest June if. So is it possible to change the country to Canada? Even if it’s ineligible country. It doesn’t matter right? And the interview is always at us embassy or can be at us consulate as well? Thank you.
January 28, 2018 at 02:07
No problem to interview in Canada. Montreal.
January 27, 2018 at 18:45
So Pls can you just give a range for the next visa bulletin for EU?
January 28, 2018 at 02:04
Are you kidding me?? Read the article!
January 27, 2018 at 20:33
Hi Brit, ok so, in Asia region the holes average to about 5% in the beginning until case number 7000. From 7000 the holes increase to 50% and from 7200 onwards the holes increase to 70%. Does this mean we can see an acceleration in VB from 7000 onwards..? … also the no response rate of 30% is a risk coz. These ppl can still come back filing their ds260 and create back logs… furthermore, can we have any response from Iranians as to if they r being called for interviews and/or are still being issued visas or simply being called and put on AP.
My cases is AS82xx, I was comfortable before but now I m really trying to find an answer because Asia is lately being subjected to various circumstances
January 28, 2018 at 02:01
There could be an acceleration when the density reduces *IF* KCC doesn’t hold places open for Iranians. Iranians are not being approved in general – but the travel ban could change if successfully challenged. So – speculation for AS is pointless. Wait and see.
January 28, 2018 at 14:49
Dear Simon
what i understand from the data in the excel
number of issued cases 5521 for all regions
number of issued visas 10877 for all regions
we are still in January (4th mouth)
39123 visa left
its about 20% from all the visas and must be 25%
do you think any if regions will go current this year?
January 28, 2018 at 15:11
It is normal to see the slow start. Don’t read anything into that.
January 28, 2018 at 17:07
But Brit, is the this slow start or the amount of visa issuance similar to the other years or a little less?
January 28, 2018 at 18:09
Normal.
January 28, 2018 at 16:33
Hello Brit,
in the chart there have been quite a lot cases marked as AP recently (in EU – 5,6%, 5,5%). I read your article about AP and I know it means administrative processing. How do these cases mostly end up? Do they mostly fall within issued or refused category? And why do some cases stay in AP even after the fiscal year is closed?
Thanks a lot for your time.
January 28, 2018 at 17:54
Most AP cases will be issued. Some people don’t get cleared(background checks etc) early enough before the end of the fiscal year
January 28, 2018 at 18:07
I don’t have stats on the average outcome of AP. Some cases cannot finish AP by the end of the year – and that case cannot then ever be approved.
January 29, 2018 at 04:16
Hello Britt and everybody!
I have a question about interview location.
I am EU28***. Birth place and country of eligibility is Russia. I have submitted my DS-260 with interview location selected as Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia because it is much closer to my current home town than Moscow, Russia. Other reason I selected Ulaanbaatar is my wife and son both born in Mongolia and we have an apartment and a lot of relatives there. But currently we live in Russia so now I have my doubts about that choice. Is it better for me to change interview location to Moscow, Russia, which is post for my country of eligibility?
January 29, 2018 at 04:26
It doesn’t matter which you choose.
January 29, 2018 at 05:12
Thanks a lot for your answer and for your great blog. I am your biggest fan from now.
January 29, 2018 at 07:43
Hi Brit!
I will go to the doctor soon. I have hypertension and panic disorder. I get medicines for that. Should I tell the truth about the panic? May I forbid because I have panic disorder? Or can I be forbid, if I will not tell this? Thank you so much!
January 29, 2018 at 17:54
That is not disqualifying.
January 29, 2018 at 20:27
What is disqualifying illness? Mental problems OK? Only the infectious diseases?
January 30, 2018 at 06:55
mr simon
Q1: is egypt still have many case number small and high denisty in small numbers ??
Q2: will the next VB for egypt increase up to 2000 ??
thanks in advance
January 30, 2018 at 14:33
1. Yes
2. Wait and see.
January 30, 2018 at 10:47
Hello simon!! My interview is on Monday, and today i realised my daughtes middle names is not in the correct order on the ds 260 and confirmation letter as on the passport and birth certificate..
January 30, 2018 at 14:31
That won’t cause a problem, but inform the CO to have it corrected.
January 30, 2018 at 21:18
Hi Brit and Xarthisius,
Sorry about my serial asking but is something that makes me confused.
Im trying to study all graphs and cvs files that you provide in this site. Anytime i find something new, first thought that i have is asking you :P. Im trying to compare graphs and cvs file (current file 30 january) for Yerevan Armenia for example. In graphs i have seen very high refusal and Ap rate but in cvs file it doesn’t seems like that. Can you please tell what is the problem? Does the graphs are animated through cvs file or from another source of information? I’m sorry for this question but im trying to understand the whole process to not waste you time.
January 30, 2018 at 21:34
Dont answer that question because i mistakenly filtered only Eu cases. Another thing that impress me is success rate between eu cases and as cases in Yerevan.
January 31, 2018 at 16:08
Hi Brit, do you have a prediction when the interview will be to AS6XXX?
Thank you!!
January 31, 2018 at 20:05
No.
January 31, 2018 at 16:25
Hi Simon, My case number is DV2018-AS5xxx. I will submit my ds260 before 2/2. Am I too late to submit my ds260? How long does KCC need to process ds260?
January 31, 2018 at 18:50
You are not too late. It will be fine.
January 31, 2018 at 19:24
Thank you!
February 1, 2018 at 12:31
Hello sir , is there any chances looking politically that edv will be canceled including 2018 remaining selectees, in your opinion?
February 1, 2018 at 14:42
No
February 1, 2018 at 14:24
Hi Brit,
KCC told me my interview date is in March but I can’t get my interview notice for my interview because I don’t have confirmation number and don’t remember the email. How can I get the interview notice? Please advise. Thanks you.
February 1, 2018 at 14:49
I don’t have a magic method. This is the chance of a lifetime and you have been careless with it.
February 1, 2018 at 14:58
Do you have any link i can pull out the interview notice?
February 1, 2018 at 15:04
No
February 1, 2018 at 21:52
iam sorry .but iam pretty sure the dv case does not belong to you. don’t try and mess somebody life chance
February 1, 2018 at 18:28
is there any nonresponse rate for cases that are still waiting for status at NVC although they already become current?
(at NVC cases below 13800, there are around “4573” cases) I am looking for how many of them can be nonresponse ?
Regards
February 1, 2018 at 18:50
They are ALL non responses, until they respond. Most people (by far) who are going to respond have already responded. There are always a small percentage of cases who delay their submission until the later months, but that percentage is tiny.
NR rate varies by country, and therefore by region. Because of that (and the changing distribution of cases due to sudden entry increases from a few countries), it is hard to predict the likely DV2018 NR rate, particularly for EU. However, an EU NR rate of 45 to 50 percent would not be a surprise. DV2015 NR rate for EU was 48%.
February 1, 2018 at 19:24
By the way. When you compare the two U2 countries, the behavior between the two is very different. For years these two countries have maxed out on selectees, but the issued rate varies greatly (Ukraine taking FAR fewer visas than Uzbekistan). This is because Uzbekistan selectees are FAR more likely to respond, and follow through with the process. So Uzbekistan has a LOW NR rate. Because Uzbekistan cases are ALL <11000, that country is skewing the NR rate. So - your 4573 cases represent 44.8% of the cases, and normally NR rate will reduce later, BUT in the case of EU, it will actually increase for the region over the coming months - again - 45 to 50% would be "normal".
February 1, 2018 at 21:15
i have one more question, how about “ready cases” i see the first one is starting with EUXXX45 what is that mean?
i mean,they can be scheduled for interview whenever they want?or they are the cases just lost their chance.it has long range EU45 to EU13797 and there are “2572”
February 1, 2018 at 21:23
Cases scheduled for interview. Some a scheduled late (because they responded late), some never show up for their interviews. Also, some will have been interviewed by the embassy were lazy about updating the status.
February 1, 2018 at 21:32
there are only just 6 ready cases turned to “in transit” status below the 10700.(EU1785,2686,4933,5086,5612) Can we get any good thing from here or am i just asking too much to find good news.
Thanks a lot
PS i dont have more question
February 1, 2018 at 20:11
Is that number just for Eu?