The numbers are released – theses are for August interviews.
AFRICA 44250 (Last month 36500)
Except:
Egypt:28700 (Last month 27100)
ASIA – 7650 (Last month 6850)
Except:
Nepal:7150 (Last month 6475)
EUROPE – 39750 (Last month 35700)
OCEANIA – 1325 (Last month 1250)
SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN – 1350 (Last month 1175)
June 10, 2015 at 19:47
so what do u think about as201500011500
June 10, 2015 at 20:41
IS that Asia? If so that has some risk – we will have to wait and see…
June 10, 2015 at 20:01
thank you brits for all that you do .now what about AF599xx? can we see a number starting with 6 for september?? a jump more than 16k is possible??!!!!! thanks
June 10, 2015 at 20:40
It is technically possible – but I cannot be sure it will happen – we will have to wait and see…
June 10, 2015 at 20:23
Hi Simon
to reach my CN which 66xxx what will be they factors will make it possible ??
Appriciate your opinion
June 10, 2015 at 20:38
THat is a risky number… we will have to wait and see…
June 10, 2015 at 20:29
mr birt what happened with AS that’s least number ?
why?
what do you think ?
June 10, 2015 at 20:37
It was less than I expected by 350. So – they are probably seeing faster than expected Iranian AP activity.
June 10, 2015 at 21:18
Faster Iran AP possibly…
June 10, 2015 at 20:36
Thx M britsimon for your great job My case number is AS82*** i have a chance for receive visa
I’m from Iran
thx so much
June 10, 2015 at 21:18
Yes you have a chance – if you avoid AP.
June 10, 2015 at 20:39
Very disappointed at this vb for Asia. With a CN as13xxx. There is no hope at all. Am I right?
June 10, 2015 at 21:18
I think that is too high….
June 10, 2015 at 21:33
Thank u for ur reply. It was truly an emotional roller coaster ride. Now I wish I wasn’t selected in the first place.
June 10, 2015 at 20:44
hello sir , my CN is AF 68 xxx do u think i still have a chance ?? my best regards
June 10, 2015 at 23:11
Sadly I think that is looking very risky….
June 10, 2015 at 20:58
Brit what do u think my chances are
af59158
getting worrief
June 10, 2015 at 21:00
Dear Simon,
Thank you for your very helpful website and informations.
We would like to ask your advice about our situation.
My boyfriend was selected for the DV 2015. His case number is current with the july bulletin.
In a relationship for 8 years, we would like to start this new adventure together and we had already started the administrative procedure to get married.
If we get married next week, how long it will take to reprocess the KCC files ? Should we wait to receive the 2nl letter or should we modify the file ASAP? Is there a risk that if we modify the file now even with a current number we won’t be called for interview ?
Thank you a lot for your help
June 10, 2015 at 23:15
Why on earth have you left it so late to get married??? It is too late to unlock the forms. So – you have made things complicated. It can be done – but you are bound to be asked why you didn’t get married sooner! The process of including you on the case will have to be worked out direct with the embassy now….
https://britsimonsays.com/marital-status-getting-married-dv-lottery-process/
June 10, 2015 at 21:14
my case number is about AF..45XXX i will be current next vb?
June 10, 2015 at 23:16
100%
June 10, 2015 at 21:22
Hi,Simon.what are the chances of AF627*** being current in September
June 10, 2015 at 23:16
Some chance – you can only hope….
June 10, 2015 at 21:34
Brit what do u tink the final cut.off for AF wil look like
June 10, 2015 at 21:45
Hi brit thank for great job,
I want to know if my cn af60288 is a risk number since the last vb is released.
I wish you good day
June 11, 2015 at 06:44
It is not 100% safe – but has a chance still.
June 10, 2015 at 21:46
Mr Bri please is it possible to have an idea of interview activities in the Embassy in Africa as the number of visas already distributed so far please ?
June 10, 2015 at 21:57
Hi again Brit, I am the guy who submitted DS 260 late ( end of May 2015) and my number is current in august ( my CN is 2015EU391XX). You alreadu told me that the chances of getting my case processed are very small… So i just want to ask you if there is a slightly bigger chance now that there is such a big jump for EU region. Is there anything that you would recommend me to do about my situation ?
Thanks in advance 🙂
June 10, 2015 at 22:02
Dear Simon, regarding the disappointing cutoff of Asia, do you think it is more ominous now for high CNs >10k, or the final number remains unchanged regardless? And please what do you think of 11k? If you had to make a wild guess, what do you think the final number will be?
Thank you a lot sir, and sorry for hammering you with questions 🙁
June 11, 2015 at 10:46
Please Mr Simon, anything?
June 11, 2015 at 20:57
I can only repeat what I have said many times. The final AS cutoff depends on how many visas are taken by Iran. 500 difference for Iran = a CN difference of 3000. We don’t have the data to KNOW for sure what is happening in Iranian AP – so we cannot be certain until we see the final VB.
June 11, 2015 at 22:24
hi simon
what does the NVC mean?? is the NVC 10402 of africa means the temaining visa ??
thanks for your help
June 11, 2015 at 23:30
NVC cases are those not scheduled yet – possibly because they have not responded, or those cases that submitted their DS260 late.
June 10, 2015 at 22:05
Hello Mr. Britsimon, I am so disappointed with OC, do you think that for the next VB they will jump again 75 cases? Or they will call the same numbers of the July VB? I’m asking that because last year the last VB was the same for July and August and I am really concerned about that because I really need that 75 jump for August
Thank you so much…and all the best for you…
June 10, 2015 at 22:25
Hi Brit,please what do you think about AF56100,any chance
June 10, 2015 at 22:34
simon
in July CEAC number of visa issu to AF was almost 10500 , this mean there will be around 9500 visa must be issue in the next VB , corrct me if i am wrong if yes please explain what will be the cenario then
June 10, 2015 at 22:48
according to this VB what do you think about 602XX do you think i have a good chance or not?please answer me
June 10, 2015 at 22:53
very good for africa so i think that for september i will be current 2015AF532XX?
June 10, 2015 at 23:02
Hi Brit you will probably remember me from my posts earlier this year my friend was delayed and you predicted it because he sent his files late. Hes lives in america since april first week, anyway i want to thank you because i went through your website evey single day looking at questions from people similar to my cn 47xxx. Your predictions gave me faith and now i have more faith to have september thank you a lot brit you dont know how much it means to me. Thanks again for what you doing.
June 10, 2015 at 23:02
the progress of Asia was only 800 . we did’nt see the jump
1- do you think that the next VB will see jump between 2500 – 3500
2- do you think 103xx has good chance or little chance
3- does nepal limited in this VB . ?
4- is it nepal the reason that Asia did’nt got big jump as we expected ?
i mean is it true that when nepal got limited we are gonna see the jump or that wrong understand ?
thank you for your work
June 11, 2015 at 06:45
1. I think so
2. Some chance still
3. Yes
4. Maybe – we don’t know.
June 12, 2015 at 10:04
I am too from Syria , where will be your interview?
June 12, 2015 at 10:17
I am too from Syria , where will be your interview? Amman?
June 10, 2015 at 23:32
Finally got current (AF38xxx). They must have cleared lots of backlog cases to have this big jump (7750 numbers). With 38% density and 50% response rate, that means that KCC want to interview almost 1500 cases for August, if 1800 was their target, that leaves only 17% for the backlog cases. That is a big drop from the 70%-80% numbers we were seeing in the past months, only the 2NL data can confirm the real number of backlog cases though. To be honest, I predicted this VB would reach 40xxx max based on 60% backlog (was not expecting this huge drop).
Anyway, I am super happy that I became current, that was a very stressful year. I wish good luck to all remaining DV 2015 selectees who will anxiously be waiting for the last VB, especially those who feel that their numbers are somewhat risky.
Thanks Brit for this informative website and your tireless work, it was very helpful.
June 11, 2015 at 06:40
I think they increased the number of interviews because of the no shows – we will confirm after the 2NLs go out.
Oh – and don’t forget there are holes – so it was not 7750 cases.
June 11, 2015 at 14:31
They increased by 2889 real cases without holes.
June 11, 2015 at 15:09
Of which around half would not have responded….
June 11, 2015 at 16:12
That’s why I said they wanted to interview around 1500 new cases (2889/2 ~ 1500), my answer already included the density and the response rate.
June 11, 2015 at 17:34
plus backlog – I expect it was over 2000 interviews.
June 11, 2015 at 17:23
Yeah if the response rate is 55%, it’s around1589 new cases that were scheduled. I guess that the number of interviews scheduled was 2000 or more. some (around 20-30%) went to backlog and I think they add up some cases as they probably started to realize the no show problem in AF region.
June 11, 2015 at 17:29
Yep – we will know more after the 2NLs.
June 10, 2015 at 23:37
I’m helping to a friend but her number is higher for the SA region. In the July 2015 visa bulletin shows the number SA…001350 for August, less that 30 numbers below, but August can be the last month of great opportunities. On september rarely shows visa availability (only DV2005 year show numbers on September). Can be scheduled a visa opportunity for her on September 2015, that is the last month of this lottery? Her higher number is because she check his dv application 5 months later (October and not on the first month: May)? Other years always our region shows the word CURRENT but not on the previous DV2014
Please, help me about. Thanks in advanced, Roberto (Cuba)
June 11, 2015 at 06:39
I am struggling to understand your English… Español si quires
June 10, 2015 at 23:51
Hi Britsimon. My case number is SA 138X. Do you think I with have a chance for September. Thank you.
June 11, 2015 at 06:37
Of course you have a chance
June 10, 2015 at 23:55
Hi Mr Brite . Do you thing AF 69### still have chance ? And there is an exeaption if I’m Resident in USA ? Thanks
June 11, 2015 at 06:36
No I don’t think that number has much chance now – and no exception for being resident already.
June 10, 2015 at 23:57
OMG , my cn is AS201500011100 ,it seems like it will be current next VB, correct me if i’m wrong !!
June 11, 2015 at 06:36
It might be – wait and see….
June 11, 2015 at 00:02
hii sir please i want to know some information :
1- in DV how many visa they should give to AFRIC ?
2- we are 11/06/2015 how many visa is it given to afric ?
3- what do you think for the cut-off ?
thank’s sir , i want juste knoow
June 11, 2015 at 06:35
1. The quota is about 21 to 22k
2. I don’t have the CEAC number for today – but around 11k.
3. between 55k and 65k
June 11, 2015 at 01:22
dear Simon can you till me why you think that there is no next visa bulletin for Egypt ,
as your last ceac data post ,Egypt used only 2400 visa until 6/6/2015 that mean there are about 1100 remaining not used do you think that they can used all the 1100 in next 3 months of progress .
my case number is 289**
i wait your answer
June 11, 2015 at 06:28
Yes I think they can fill the quota with what they have – but it is just a guess – I could be wrong.
June 13, 2015 at 20:03
Really your work is very professional, and you help is appreciated, but this the firt time saw your post like that, I think, just a guess, usually you using theory and advanced way for such questions ,please correct me, you know that 2400 used visas till 4/6/2015 and that covered many of countries like Egypt, Sudan, Libya, so let say that 2200 of 2400 from Egypt with low number of AP, so let say that the Egyptian between 20900 and 28700 about 936 and never can cover the rest of visas 1300 and according to the previous years the number of AOS not exceed than 50 that remains 1250 visa and never cover that with huge numbers of Sudanese(3484) most of them make interview at Egypt so I believe that will coming VB for Egypt and may be reach to 31xxx, please correct and finally I trusted in your words, as you really expert and without your data that published before, I can’t make that analysis, thankssss
June 13, 2015 at 21:54
My estimate is based on the scenario I saw back in January – and based on Egyptian selectees, approval rates and so on. It is true that other countries interview in Cairo – but Egyptians are mobile too (meaning they could interview outside of Cairo).
Bottom line, you may be right, or I may be right – that really is OK either way – what you and I say won’t change anything. We won’t know until about 4 weeks time.
However, a couple of points to illustrate why I felt my earlier (January) guess was being proven correct.
The 2400 issued at Cairo was achieved from the 20900 – 111 per thousand. That number is rising of course – and it only needs to mature to 120 per thousand to get very close to 3500 by 28700. The increase comes from backlog cases. However, as you say, some of those won’t be Egyptians, but then there will be Egyptians at other embassies and in the USA.
There is also the evidence of how they capped Egypt in August last year – showing they like to finish early.
Then there is the VB itself – it seems to be tailing off with VB progress.
Then lastly, and perhaps most compelling there is the reduction in overall AF density due to Nigeria being excluding. That has removed 25000 cases numbers from the AF region this year – which is the main reason the DV2015 max case is 89799 whilst DV2014 had cases up to around 116XXX. That difference means 32000 is not the same this year to last year. You are reducing last year max by less than 2000 – but I think the difference is greater than that.
So – I HOPE you are right, but there is evidence to suggest not.
June 14, 2015 at 15:54
Thank you very much for your analysis
June 11, 2015 at 01:24
AS113xx still has a chance or not???
June 11, 2015 at 06:26
Some small chance, yes
June 11, 2015 at 02:37
Sir Af63583 still have chance.????
June 11, 2015 at 06:26
Some small chance, yes./
June 11, 2015 at 02:57
Better jump for Africa, But I would need a jump of 15k in the next VB to be current. Mr Brit can we see such a jump?
June 11, 2015 at 06:25
It is possible….
June 11, 2015 at 02:58
Do you update CEAC data this time? I hope you to do this! Thank you!
June 11, 2015 at 06:25
It is too soon to take the next extract
June 11, 2015 at 03:13
Thank u. Brit. For your great effort u help us much more
God bless u n yor family
And especially God fulfill your daughter’s dream
June 11, 2015 at 06:24
Thanks you!
June 11, 2015 at 03:31
Very disappointing VB for Asia..
June 11, 2015 at 03:42
hi simon
in July CEAC number of VISA issu to AF was almost 10500 , this mean there will be around 9500 VISA must be issue in the next VB , correct me if i am wrong , if yes please explain what will be the cenario then how kcc will be able to cover the qouta in one month
June 11, 2015 at 06:24
Yes you are wrong. The CEAC data is up to date (meaning has 3.5 months of processing) while the VB predicts the future and therefore only has one month. So – they have 3.5 months, not one, to fill the quota.
June 11, 2015 at 03:45
AS12.8XX no hope right?
June 11, 2015 at 06:22
Pretty much no hope – correct. 🙁
June 11, 2015 at 03:51
why they are doing in Asia cases this not fair my cn 114xx
are Nepal and Iran the only countries in Asia??!!!!
June 11, 2015 at 06:22
They are bound by law to respect the case number order and will try to fill the quota – so there are more people than they require….
June 11, 2015 at 10:45
it is difficult for me to understand as well, i’ve done a lot of reading on this………Iran seems to get first shot and if they fail, then an entire continent just fights for scraps? what happens if they don’t get AP anymore in the future……….then it’s pretty much just the Iran and Nepal Region, not the Asia region.
June 12, 2015 at 01:31
Each case is assigned a rank order – the case number. So – a case number AS1 goes first. The two large counries have a lot of entries – so get a lot of winners – but they are not prioritized ahead of ROA. So – it comes down to the individual case and the case number….
June 11, 2015 at 03:55
hi simon i am from nepal my cn was 7845 is there any chance for me in next cuttoff or i gave up now plz tell me
June 11, 2015 at 06:21
I think that is too high – I am sorry…
June 11, 2015 at 05:32
Oh Thank you Jesus my number is finally current in August , Thanks Dear Simon for you 95% Right prediction and Effort
My question is , my interview in Kuwait and i`m going for 2 weeks vacation to Egypt . Is they need for certificate of police record From Egypt or kuwait only ?
thanks
June 11, 2015 at 06:21
There is a nice chart on the dvselectee site at the link below that explains when you need a PC
http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/immigrate/diversity-visa/if-you-are-selected/prepare-supporting-documents.html
June 11, 2015 at 06:37
Hello Simon,
You still think that Asia will hit 11k in the last VB as expected?
June 11, 2015 at 06:42
Depends on Iran….
June 11, 2015 at 06:59
Arent they gonna fill the quota (80** visas) for AS then? I mean if iran didn’t go well?
June 11, 2015 at 07:13
They will fill the quota
June 11, 2015 at 07:22
So if I understand the theory well, we can expect at least 3k jump in the final VB for Asia..??
June 11, 2015 at 07:29
I hope so
June 11, 2015 at 07:31
Thanks.. Mine is 106**
June 11, 2015 at 06:46
Hello Simon, this is the end, with AS9750 I lost any hope 🙁
June 11, 2015 at 06:47
Silly time to give up…
June 11, 2015 at 08:22
But due to progress of ASIA this year, I can not see a jumb of 2000? that’s why I don’t want to keep thinking there will be any hope. this is very stressful.
June 11, 2015 at 07:01
Hi, do you thing As85xx is safe?
June 11, 2015 at 07:13
Yes – as long as it is not from Nepal
June 11, 2015 at 07:09
Hi Brit, what is the chance of a 125 increase next month in OC?
June 11, 2015 at 07:14
Your guess is as good as mine on that!
June 11, 2015 at 07:25
Hi brit
My cn is current in this month.(696* from Nepal).when will I get the second letter?
Is there 100% chance to get second letter after somedays
Thank u
June 11, 2015 at 07:30
2 weeks or so
June 11, 2015 at 07:25
What are the chances of OC region going current next month?
June 11, 2015 at 07:30
0%
June 11, 2015 at 07:38
i seems like now you are going to deal with “%” lol
June 11, 2015 at 07:42
could you give us brief explanation of what’s going on for ASIA it seems weird !!
June 11, 2015 at 08:01
Simon,
I have two questions,
1. How many people under 11000 for Asia (Without the holes)?
2. If they cant fill the 8000 visa quota for asia, can others (AF, EU…etc) benefit those rest visas?
Thanks
June 12, 2015 at 01:59
1. Under 11000? How would that help? Perhaps you should check out the CEAC file from May 25 or Jan 1 – both of which have the full data.
2. THey will fill the quota.
June 11, 2015 at 08:13
Hello britt please could you tell what about 7586 nepal do i have any chanceeee????m worried
June 12, 2015 at 01:34
https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/
June 11, 2015 at 08:36
Hi brit
1. 7586 nepal any chance?
2. Is this a last vb for nepal?
M worried plz reply
June 11, 2015 at 08:36
hi brit my CN 56000 is safe? i am sad
June 12, 2015 at 01:34
https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/