June 2NL analysis plus predictions
OK I have had a chance to look at the 2NL data.
This month has been a bit odd. Normally, the 2NLs went out within a few hours and the CEAC data was updated later that day or even the following day. This month a number of people got their 2NLs on Friday morning. Then the process seemed to stop within a couple of hours of starting. I was watching the CEAC site and at around midnight KCC time the system was updated with the 2NL data – despite the fact that many 2NLs had still not been sent or received. I think there must have been some technical issue that delayed the sending of the 2NLs. The CEAC update shows that all the interviews are booked. Incidentally – anyone can check their case on the CEAC site and if they see the in Transit status that is a clear indication that the interview is booked. I expect the remainder of the 2NLs to be sent on Monday.
This delay has reduced the information available to me. I cannot get a sense by the normal feedback of where KCC have got to in terms of DS260 submission date. So – I am basing my analysis on comments received over the last couple of weeks and what I can assume from the data.
So – how about progress this month. Well – here are the approximate number of cases scheduled for interview by region over the last three months.
So – they have sent a good number of 2NLs out – the best over the last three months. I am an optimistic person so I am going to assume the at least the same and a bit more, so I am working on the following number of interviews for July.
AF – 1800
EU – 1400
AS – 450
SA – 80
OC – 60
OK – we also need to know how many interviews have been given to backlog cases and how many backlog cases will take interview slots next month.
AS shows almost no cases taken by backlog, and very few for OC. Selectees in those regions submitted early. SA has some, and both EU and AF show quite a number of the interviews went to backlog cases. Whilst I am guessing good progress has been made, with the DS260 processing time, there is still a 2+ month time needed for processing. That means that cases submitted in late January, February, and perhaps March will be in the July interviews. So – some interviews will continue to go to backlog cases in July and that scenario will carry on to the end. I think AF is particularly likely to continue being affected by backlog cases (moreso than EU).
Then the response rate. At this point, the most sensible response rate to use is the response rate that you believe will be in effect for the next batch of cases. So – I took a sample over the last 2000 case numbers, then compared responses versus non response for the cases included in the file. That method reveals the following response rates.
AF – 51%
EU – 55%
AS – 66%
SA – 51%
OC – 41%
Given the backlog comments below I am predicting slight increases for the above response rates so have based my calculations on the following numbers:-
AF – 53%
EU – 57%
AS – 66%
SA – 52%
OC – 41%
So, now we have everything we need to estimate. The basic premise of this method of estimation is to assume that KCC are scheduling the appropriate number of interviews to achieve the pace they need to achieve on a monthly bases. We can therefore predict the number of interviews they will schedule next month. So – if we know how many interviews they will schedule, and we know the response rate, we can determine how many cases they need to activate by increasing the VB number. Backlog cases make this a bit more complicated than that – we have to make an assumption about how many cases will go to backlog and how many new cases are needed. That introduces an element of inaccuracy into the predictions, hence I publish a range of CNs.
Once we know how many cases KCC need to make current in order to yield the number of interviews they need, we can look ahead in the file to see what case numbers are likely to be revealed. For that reason I have published COMPLETE files this month – showing every case in the CEAC system (bar a handful of cases that error out). This means we could even apply this method of prediction to get final numbers, but given that we still have 5 full months of processing (only 3 VBs including the one I am predicting now)Β it seems a lot could happen between now and then. However, you are free to apply the principle and see what you think…
So – my predictionsΒ for the next VB (July interviews) are as follows.
AF – 37XXX to 39XXX (i.e. not going over 40000).
EU – 37XXX to 38XXX
AS – 66XX to 67XX
SA – 1150 to 1300
OC – 1250 to 1300
Just a note about Nepal and Asia. The awful news about the earthquake is still too fresh to know how that will affect the lottery. The people of Nepal need and deserve ourΒ best positive thoughtsΒ and prayers. So over the coming days we will see what impact if any this will have on interviews in Nepal. Early indications is that the US embassy itself is operating normally after the earthquake as they are posting information about the quake.
June 2NL analysis plus predictions
April 26, 2015 at 04:58
what’s the problem sir with this vb this years ?
my cn is af 49XXX so i dont have chance
good bye my dream good bye usa
April 26, 2015 at 05:16
You really need to pay more attention to my posts. Your number is 100% safe.
April 26, 2015 at 05:43
because it walk very slowly sir , when my interview be if 100% ?
thank’s
April 26, 2015 at 06:02
August, perhaps September
May 2, 2015 at 02:38
Hey Brit my no. Is Af63*** when do you think I will receive a letter
May 2, 2015 at 18:41
July 2NL for September interview. There is some risk your number is a little too high, but wait and see…
April 26, 2015 at 05:06
MAN Asia is toooo slow.
I’m worried for real now
April 26, 2015 at 05:10
AS 10950 ?! >.<
:/
April 26, 2015 at 05:19
still have a good chance – depends on Nepal maxing in August and Iranian AP cases…
April 26, 2015 at 05:17
Nepal will max in August – so AS can expect a reasonable jump in August and some more in September, depending on Iran AP cases.
April 26, 2015 at 06:09
U mean to say …out of last 3 vb nepal’s cutoff will come out in 2nd last vb ?
April 26, 2015 at 05:06
is there is any hope for AS00011500
very disappointed!!!!
April 26, 2015 at 05:18
Still some hope – the numbers jump once Nepal is maxed
April 26, 2015 at 05:07
What about Egypt for July prediction?
April 26, 2015 at 05:18
Probably add 2000 to 3000
April 26, 2015 at 05:40
My no is AF270xx do you think I have a chance to get 2nd letter?
April 26, 2015 at 06:01
Yes.
April 26, 2015 at 05:09
AM start to loose my mind
April 26, 2015 at 05:27
hi Britsimon basing on early prediction where you said af 60k are safe and matching with this prediction of july 37k-39k is that 60k have a chance? i’ve big worries
April 26, 2015 at 06:00
The range is 39000 to 39999. Now, we need to see something like 48/50 in August and 60+ in September. That is possible since the final month does not need an allowance for the final month AP cases – and of course the backlog will be the minimum by then, and density is low.
Now, cases over 60k are risky…
April 26, 2015 at 05:31
This is very interesting. But I get a little lost on your method. Are you dividing the expected number of interviews by the response rate, then leaving Β±0.5 for errors on each side?
That gave me the same numbers as you for SA, but not for the others. I must be missing something.
April 26, 2015 at 05:58
AS, SA and OC have two factors. EU and AF have some portion of the interview slots taken by the backlog cases. So – let’s imagine a region with 1000 expected interviews and 50% response rate. You would need to figure out how many case numbers are needed to yield 1000 – so that would be 2000 cases (which might need 3000 case numbers). OK – but if 500 of the interviews are taken by cases already current – it complicates the estimate a little – and the 500 is a factor that we are guessing….
April 26, 2015 at 06:30
Ah! I made a silly error: looks like I’d left out the density of cases. With EU, once I take the 40% density into account then I see somewhere around 6000 cases needed, less the ‘unknown’ number of backlog cases you mention. So that squares with your numbers. Also works for AS, SA and AF.
But that leaves OC off. With a 41% response rate, and 60 interviews scheduled, with something like 92% case density, I’m calculating a bump of 160. Since your prediction was right last time I’m assuming it’s good now. So what adjustment did you make here?
April 26, 2015 at 14:07
I took the 60 needed and based on data assumed 15 cases of those would be backlog cases – the 45 “new” cases needed 107 cases – which came to case number 1294. That was already a 125 bump, so I went a little cautious – but yeah there is some chance to see 1325, but that didn’t “feel” right – hence why I went with 1300.
April 26, 2015 at 14:39
Ah, right. Thanks!
April 26, 2015 at 05:45
hello sir.
with this satution do you think AF C.N less than 60K still safe?? and how they get current .
thank you for your amazing job
April 26, 2015 at 06:09
Yep I think AF60K is safe. It gets risky very soon after 60.
April 26, 2015 at 05:49
thank you for your gold information
i have some quastion and i hope you to answer
1 – do you think this is last VB for nepal
agust and september are for the rest of asia
2- how about iranian AP is it still seem as slowly as last year or its seem going faster
3- my CN IS AS103** is it safe ?
4- will you update nepal and iran information for the rest of asia in your blog since the last update you did ?
and thank very much . god bless you
April 26, 2015 at 06:10
1. No, Nepal will cutoff in August.
2. Not certain about that.
3. Pretty much safe unless Iran takes a dramatic increase.
4. I will in the next week or so.
April 26, 2015 at 05:50
BritSimon
deeply thanks for your continued effort.
to me should i give up coz my CN is 70XXX.
am right ?
April 26, 2015 at 06:11
It is looking pretty risky. Too early to give up, but have a plan B
July 17, 2015 at 11:53
my name is Daniel and case is 2015AF00053xxx
July 17, 2015 at 14:15
So that number will not be current, and your case will not get interviewed.
April 26, 2015 at 05:54
Again let wait for the prediction to be true…i have a faith will do. I understand af less than 60,000 are complete safe but i am worrying time may timeout for those higher CN incomparison to ds 260 backlogs and slow response late for Af with lower CN..okay,in all,let wait and see,how stuff will progress,and plan B is necessity as of now
April 26, 2015 at 05:55
Looking to the Slow VB of Asia i do afraid with CN AS76XX.
April 26, 2015 at 06:10
Well I now know AF4046* is stil goin current July as to ur data,well its disappointing,it means I might get interview either in Sept or not at all..
April 26, 2015 at 06:21
deeply thanks to britsimon for good job my cn af 57k to be still safe
April 26, 2015 at 14:00
Yes I believe it is.
April 26, 2015 at 06:51
So based on comments, you we again have small increase in Asia, but still Asia should go over 10000 by september. Almost 40000 jump after july? I don’t know, I was hoping to see a bigger increase for Asia. π
April 26, 2015 at 07:26
So, no way to see a number above 7000 next month?
April 26, 2015 at 14:31
I don’t think so.
April 26, 2015 at 14:09
Once Nepal and Iran is out and the density per thousand cases is about 30% of the density now. So – jumps of 2000 in a month are possible. However, again – it hinges on Iranian AP…
April 26, 2015 at 14:48
True, but Nepal would limit around 7000sh and Iran would not max out until last day since most go on AP proces. If this tends to continue like this, 600 or 700 per month, Nepal would max in August, n we only see a big jump in last month (September), but will it be over 3000 in one month to reach 10000 range?
Dear Simon, I would appreciate it if you do a thorough analysis of Asia (like the way you did for Africa) along with analysis of Nepal and Iran cases to see how this will work out.
Thanks for your hard work sir.
April 26, 2015 at 15:02
In the month that Nepal is limited (I think August) the rest of Asia can see an increase. Then that could build in September.
I have written a number of articles on Nepal and Asia – read this one. https://britsimonsays.com/update-regarding-nepal-and-asia/
April 26, 2015 at 07:06
Hi Simon,
I see you have used 57% as the expected response rate for the non U2 (means over 15000 CNs). In fact the response rate for non U2 countries has become 50% not 55%. I think for July we could see 3% increase of response rate for U2 (to reach 43%) and 3% for non U2 (to reach 53%-54%). This will consume 540 CNs for clearing backlog and will leave 860 for the new cases. With 54% response rate for the new cases, which is quite an unknown percent, the CN jump for the newly current cases will be about 1600, which will result in 383** cases.
April 26, 2015 at 14:21
Yes I may have an error in the sample response rate (I think I flipped the NVC versus response for EU) – but I went optimistic with the number of interviews (1400) and assumed 800 would come from new cases (600 from backlog). My number came out at CN37888. I then weighed the factors where I had been under or over optimistic and that is how I have the 37 to 39 range.
Seems like you understand the method by the way!
April 26, 2015 at 07:11
Please note that this is just a rough prediction with many unknowns..
April 26, 2015 at 07:16
How could Asia reach over 10k when only 3 vbs left? Even then Asia is already around 2000 slower than last year
April 26, 2015 at 07:17
Also will the earthquake in Nepal affect the interviews there? Thus increasing the case number, Drop in response rate, etc.
April 26, 2015 at 14:31
It would not change the response rate, but theoretically it could affect the no show rate. As for the US embassy, they have cancelled interview on Monday 27th, but I doubt they will be much more affected than that. So – I don’t think we will see a huge impact in DV cases from the quake.
April 26, 2015 at 14:26
Take a look carefully at the jumps last year. Once Nepal and Iran are exhausted numbers jump faster.
April 26, 2015 at 08:58
hi sir wat about cn af44** getting worried
April 26, 2015 at 09:06
hi
my case number is AF 56xxx I am a fried so could you say to me it is save plzzzzz
April 26, 2015 at 14:46
I believe you are still safe.
April 26, 2015 at 10:06
Hello Britsimon.
I see here in comments a lot of questions and answers about Africa region, but nothing about Europe.
What are your predictions for August and September, Europe.
Do you think that like the previous year the maximum case number will be the same for these last 2 months?
Based on latest information does the case number EU435xx have any chances of winning?
April 26, 2015 at 14:46
That number still has some chance, but some risk. I think they may halt EU after August, as they did last year. The progress is fast enough to do that. However, it is too early to be certain – and I imagine you will only be sure when you see the final VB in July.
April 26, 2015 at 10:28
Hi Simon!!! how are u doing ur best charity? i am from Ethiopia my case is current for June interview but still i have not received my 2NL. When i am observed “check my visa ststus” it says in transit status & when i open my DS-260 CEAC data current processing site that were KCC is replaced by “Addis Ababa” but when i am checking the Entrant Status Check website it is not replaced by 2NL. Britsimon !!! what shall i do? what problem do u think they face? is really the leave as it? when do u think they will send it? Brit !! any thing that cool my temper pls give me!!!!
April 26, 2015 at 14:44
The in Transit means you are CERTAIN to have the June interview. Just relax you will get your 2NL on Monday/Tuesday.
April 26, 2015 at 15:31
Thanks a lot my dear for constructive& hopeful advice
April 26, 2015 at 11:01
In worst case scenario; what is the final cutoff for Asia? Thanks.
April 26, 2015 at 14:43
It is hard to imagine a number below 10000 for AS.
April 27, 2015 at 06:48
Thank you Brit, you were helpful for many people during this long process, I have one more question, Form DS260 is the only requirement needed at this stage to get an interview, right? Fees and other suplementary documents will be submitted at the day of interview. another thing, I am going to renew passports as they will expire in less than six months, is there any need to update DS260 with new passport information? I believe it will be too late now and I can take both passports the old and the new one.
April 27, 2015 at 14:08
Yes fees and documents are produced on the day of interview (although a few embassies ask for documents in advance). Taking new passports to the interview is OK – if they are very recently issued.
April 26, 2015 at 11:19
my cn is af 56300 so i dont have chance?
good bye my dream good bye usa
April 26, 2015 at 11:28
Your number is safe sir your interview is likely to be in August /September .
April 26, 2015 at 14:42
I believe you are still safe…
April 26, 2015 at 11:55
please Mr brit tell me if im true:
– number of selectees included familly members is 125K an by now (last CAEC data) is 96K so there less than 30k
so i think there is a big chance that year all case will be current at the end???
April 26, 2015 at 14:23
You cannot add up case numbers like that – you are misunderstanding the holes and the process. So no you are not correct, and no regions won’t be current.
April 26, 2015 at 14:43
By the way, I think with such low response rate, EU has chances to become current. Don’t you agree?
April 26, 2015 at 14:48
There is some chance of that yes. The difference between the expected range and the max number is so small that it is the one region I could imagine going current – if the final response rate stays small.
April 26, 2015 at 14:56
What is your expected range for eu?
April 26, 2015 at 15:29
My earlier prediction was 38XXX to 41XXX – so I allowed for getting within 3000 CNs of current. Given the density – that really is not such a large gap, now that we see the response rate is so low.
April 26, 2015 at 16:57
I am sorry, but I think your earlier prediction is not so much applicable now any longer, because, as you correctly mentioned, the circumstances have changed. right?
I asked if you have any updated prediction range?
April 26, 2015 at 18:35
No I haven’t updated it – which is why I gave you the original number (which I still think is a valid range). So – it looks like being at the high end of my earlier prediction, and until I have concrete evidence to justify changing the prediction that is what I think it will be – although as I said earlier it would not take much to increase the number higher.
May 1, 2015 at 12:35
I think between January and now much more info/evidence has become known. Concrete evidence will only be in July, I guess, when the last VB will be published, but, at that time, there wont be a need for prediction..
May 1, 2015 at 14:06
THat will be the most accurate prediction of all – the one with hindsight. π
April 26, 2015 at 12:00
Af602xx what do you think please??any chance in % :'(
April 26, 2015 at 14:42
I don’t do percentage guesses. But you still have a good chance…
April 26, 2015 at 14:31
AF 60 960 ???????????? still have any chance ??
April 26, 2015 at 14:41
Still some chance – you just have to wait and see…
April 26, 2015 at 14:45
Hi britsimon
what is reasons make chance for AF 70XXX to get interview ?
Thanks for your always cooperative
April 26, 2015 at 14:49
AF70XXX is looking more risky. We can only wait and see…
April 26, 2015 at 15:30
thanks britsimon
April 26, 2015 at 15:10
i think about 38000 for Africa , very slow this VB . Please can you explain how they can arrive about 62000. Do you think that they can plus 15K for june and july.
Thanks
April 26, 2015 at 15:13
Hi britsimon
My cn is AF 59 2** ? still any chance for me
April 26, 2015 at 15:59
Yes!
April 26, 2015 at 16:11
Hello again Simon,
Great analysis and prediction like before. If I get current (AS63XX) in July, when will the 2nd letter for CP be sent? and approximately what month will be the interview? Are 2nd letters and interview dates given in a chronological order? for example AS6100 first and then 6101 etc?
April 26, 2015 at 16:24
The letters come out in a group – basically over 1 or 2 days. If you get current for a July interview you can expect your 2NL about 1 month from now.
The interviews during the month no longer follow a strict number order policy.
April 26, 2015 at 16:21
HI BRITSIMON I hope you are doing well and thanks a million for yours answers to peoples ‘ inquiries.
well my casse number is AF66XXX is there still a chance to be shudelled.thanks.
April 26, 2015 at 16:25
There is still a chance – but of course you need to see numbers at the high end of my estimates.
April 26, 2015 at 16:25
Simon at this point can you predict SA final cutoff range?
Gracias
April 26, 2015 at 18:32
Not accurately. Let us wait and see.
April 26, 2015 at 17:06
Thank you for the update, sir. I was wondering, regarding Asia; Is it possible that Nepal won’t be able to max out in August due to less people being able to attend interviews, and how would that affect the last VB of September? Is there any remote possibility that Asia might not fulfill its quota? And lastly, what do you think the final cutoff for Asia would be?
Thank you so much, and please forgive me for asking too many questions! π
April 26, 2015 at 18:37
Ignoring the earthquake I am pretty sure Nepal will max in August. Now, the earthquake might affect that, but it is too soon to say. I have written many times how the max for Asia depends on Iranian AP processing speed. That is something I will study in the coming weeks.
April 26, 2015 at 17:32
HI BRITSIMON
I am from Kyrgyzstan
my case is 42000 EU. sorry for disturbing! but what could you say about my case?
Thank you very much!
Samat
April 26, 2015 at 18:37
You still have a chance but there is some risk of course. You can only wait and see….
April 26, 2015 at 17:59
hi sir when will I receive my 2nl cn AF44** it gas been over 6 months now why
April 26, 2015 at 18:38
When did you submit your DS260?
April 26, 2015 at 18:23
Enter your comment here…Hi Mr Brit I Want To Know If They Have Issued All The 2nl To All Current Cases,cus Some Of Us Have Not Yet Recieve Ours,when Are We Expecting Ours.
April 26, 2015 at 18:39
No – some (many) were delayed, so I guess they will send those on Monday. You can check CEAC to see if you are in the June batch (in TRansit means scheduled)
April 26, 2015 at 18:53
Well done B
April 26, 2015 at 19:12
Hi Brit, Will Egypt be current in July ? and what is your prediction now for Egypt to close this Fiscal Year
April 26, 2015 at 19:21
No Egypt will probably add 2000 to 3000 for July, then I expect Egypt to be stopped in August.
April 29, 2015 at 11:20
Dear Mr.Simon
So, to understand the above comment more do you mean that Egypt still have 2 VB July & August ?
April 29, 2015 at 18:11
I think so – but they might also increase in all three VBs
April 26, 2015 at 20:01
hi sir what’s happening on the caec.state.gov I tired to check my status this shown Application Error
An unexpected error has occurred while processing your
previous request. The error has been reported to the site
administrator; no further action is required.
April 26, 2015 at 20:29
I don’t know
April 26, 2015 at 20:26
hi brit!!
i’m just reading your predictions and i ‘m seriously worried about my case number which is AF610xx but i continue to believe!!!!
please could you tell me if i have a chance to get an interview???
April 26, 2015 at 20:29
Yes there is a chance – you just have to wait and see…
April 26, 2015 at 20:52
this low pace is worrying!!!not over 40.000!!!
thank brit…i keep hope…
what about the final cut-off???
April 26, 2015 at 22:20
WSe will see nearer the time – let’s see if I have this VB right first!
April 27, 2015 at 09:29
ok thanks you!!!
please how many visa has been issued for africa currently???and how many left???
it isn’t easy to be calm when i see your predictions about the may VB!!!
you have told me i have a chance to be curren with a little risk !!!honestly do you think so??
i just want to be sure about my case!!!thank you for what you’re doing for us!!!
April 27, 2015 at 14:19
You still have a chance yes. You can’t be 100% sure, but a good chance.
Nearly 9000 issued for AF, so around 12/13k more.
April 26, 2015 at 21:19
Dear BritSimon
am asking you what should happen to get my AF 70XXX interview ,i mean response decrease or what?
Great Thanks.
April 26, 2015 at 22:21
Response cannot decrease – hence why your number is risky…
April 26, 2015 at 21:32
Dear sir I am from Egypt my CN 289** so when my interview will be?
April 26, 2015 at 22:21
Probably August
April 26, 2015 at 22:28
That mean there is no chance for July interview
April 26, 2015 at 22:50
Not “no” chance – I could be wrong. But I doubt it!
April 26, 2015 at 21:49
Hey π
Where does is say in transit? I cannot see anywhere that it says it on my CEAC login, yet my number went current for May?
starting to worry.
Thanks
April 26, 2015 at 22:21
Do you see “at NVC”?
April 26, 2015 at 23:29
I don’t think so. I am on the summary information page once I’ve logged into ceac.
April 27, 2015 at 00:01
1. Go to https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx
2. Enter your number in this format (no leading zeros)
2015EY12345
April 27, 2015 at 00:34
Ahhh! Thank you so much. I was looking at the wrong spot. Clearly I have no idea. Lucky to have such resourceful people like you! π
It says in transit π
April 26, 2015 at 22:55
Hello Dear …. Thank you for all help you are giving to us . I am from Yemen and my brother case number is AS9xxx is there any chance for him to get a pointment ?
April 26, 2015 at 22:57
Yes of course. He should be current in August. Make sure he has changed the embassy since Yemen will not be open by then…
April 26, 2015 at 23:07
Thank you very much for the replay How to change the embassy? Call Kentucky visa center ?
April 27, 2015 at 00:00
https://britsimonsays.com/dv-interviews-in-yemen-rescheduling/
April 27, 2015 at 00:13
Thank you very much π you are awesome.
April 27, 2015 at 00:16
Hi, SA1400august? Thanks
April 27, 2015 at 02:51
Yeah that seems likely…
April 27, 2015 at 03:39
Than you….
April 27, 2015 at 05:26
Hey Simon
My case is about 6750 from Iran
with no military record or government job ( nuclear or energy or etc ) i’m student
what do you think about my case? my interview time , AP or not ?
thanks a lot
April 27, 2015 at 14:02
You are likely to be current in July, as you say, you probably have low risk of AP. Just make sure all your documents are in order… Good luck.
April 27, 2015 at 05:34
hi Simon,
Do you have info on when was the last day submission for ds-260 for EU, who has been scheduled in June interview? The later that date the lesser backlog cases remain. right?
April 27, 2015 at 05:46
hi Britsimonsays i’m so confused by the data from table 25 April, where it shows issued visa 21671.Ap2911 Ready13014 In Transit 3740 by summing up gives 41336 that means reft8664 visas which is small to be distributed to 24k reft for Af including other regions to reach 60k(safe), sorry for bad english.
April 27, 2015 at 14:07
Not all the AP and ready case will become issued, so you cannot just add them up. Globally the success rate for interviewed cases is around 65% – so just focus on the issued cases.