June 2NL analysis plus predictions
OK I have had a chance to look at the 2NL data.
This month has been a bit odd. Normally, the 2NLs went out within a few hours and the CEAC data was updated later that day or even the following day. This month a number of people got their 2NLs on Friday morning. Then the process seemed to stop within a couple of hours of starting. I was watching the CEAC site and at around midnight KCC time the system was updated with the 2NL data – despite the fact that many 2NLs had still not been sent or received. I think there must have been some technical issue that delayed the sending of the 2NLs. The CEAC update shows that all the interviews are booked. Incidentally – anyone can check their case on the CEAC site and if they see the in Transit status that is a clear indication that the interview is booked. I expect the remainder of the 2NLs to be sent on Monday.
This delay has reduced the information available to me. I cannot get a sense by the normal feedback of where KCC have got to in terms of DS260 submission date. So – I am basing my analysis on comments received over the last couple of weeks and what I can assume from the data.
So – how about progress this month. Well – here are the approximate number of cases scheduled for interview by region over the last three months.
So – they have sent a good number of 2NLs out – the best over the last three months. I am an optimistic person so I am going to assume the at least the same and a bit more, so I am working on the following number of interviews for July.
AF – 1800
EU – 1400
AS – 450
SA – 80
OC – 60
OK – we also need to know how many interviews have been given to backlog cases and how many backlog cases will take interview slots next month.
AS shows almost no cases taken by backlog, and very few for OC. Selectees in those regions submitted early. SA has some, and both EU and AF show quite a number of the interviews went to backlog cases. Whilst I am guessing good progress has been made, with the DS260 processing time, there is still a 2+ month time needed for processing. That means that cases submitted in late January, February, and perhaps March will be in the July interviews. So – some interviews will continue to go to backlog cases in July and that scenario will carry on to the end. I think AF is particularly likely to continue being affected by backlog cases (moreso than EU).
Then the response rate. At this point, the most sensible response rate to use is the response rate that you believe will be in effect for the next batch of cases. So – I took a sample over the last 2000 case numbers, then compared responses versus non response for the cases included in the file. That method reveals the following response rates.
AF – 51%
EU – 55%
AS – 66%
SA – 51%
OC – 41%
Given the backlog comments below I am predicting slight increases for the above response rates so have based my calculations on the following numbers:-
AF – 53%
EU – 57%
AS – 66%
SA – 52%
OC – 41%
So, now we have everything we need to estimate. The basic premise of this method of estimation is to assume that KCC are scheduling the appropriate number of interviews to achieve the pace they need to achieve on a monthly bases. We can therefore predict the number of interviews they will schedule next month. So – if we know how many interviews they will schedule, and we know the response rate, we can determine how many cases they need to activate by increasing the VB number. Backlog cases make this a bit more complicated than that – we have to make an assumption about how many cases will go to backlog and how many new cases are needed. That introduces an element of inaccuracy into the predictions, hence I publish a range of CNs.
Once we know how many cases KCC need to make current in order to yield the number of interviews they need, we can look ahead in the file to see what case numbers are likely to be revealed. For that reason I have published COMPLETE files this month – showing every case in the CEAC system (bar a handful of cases that error out). This means we could even apply this method of prediction to get final numbers, but given that we still have 5 full months of processing (only 3 VBs including the one I am predicting now) it seems a lot could happen between now and then. However, you are free to apply the principle and see what you think…
So – my predictions for the next VB (July interviews) are as follows.
AF – 37XXX to 39XXX (i.e. not going over 40000).
EU – 37XXX to 38XXX
AS – 66XX to 67XX
SA – 1150 to 1300
OC – 1250 to 1300
Just a note about Nepal and Asia. The awful news about the earthquake is still too fresh to know how that will affect the lottery. The people of Nepal need and deserve our best positive thoughts and prayers. So over the coming days we will see what impact if any this will have on interviews in Nepal. Early indications is that the US embassy itself is operating normally after the earthquake as they are posting information about the quake.
June 2NL analysis plus predictions
April 27, 2015 at 09:49
Thank you Mr BritSimon.
I am talking about the holes
according to the number of hole is 50533 (89799-39266)
Now if the number of holes CN> 34150 is largely superior to that of CN <= 34150 that will happen for the next VB?
April 27, 2015 at 14:21
You are talking about the reducing density. That is one of the reasons that later VBs tend to go faster – and that is already factored in to my predictions.
April 28, 2015 at 11:26
On the calculations that I made.
I left gaps ie in the excel file AF area
gap = (column B – column 1)
If condere 8240 we delivered for the month of April, he goes to stay a little more than 12,000 visa. These 12,000 visas will be delivered in eacrt> 20484
and if you look good for this number to be reaches you must go to the minimum gap 31.822
This corresponds to 63.672
April 28, 2015 at 14:12
Yep – I have arrived at similar number. Obviously April has not finished yet – so the April end will be > 8500 – but your method sounds fine.
April 28, 2015 at 15:46
I saw how you have to have that file, it’s a crazy job.
you are strong.
Ok, now April 8400 admitting the Af area will have 21,000 visas, there will be 12,600 to> 20,484.
Returning to a similar value
You really think if they continue to take to the 1,800 they will reach 21000 or 22000 visas?
April 28, 2015 at 18:38
Couple of things. 22000 is the quota on a number of visas OVER the 50000 limit. They exceeded the limit previously – so we are assuming they will again, but it might fall a bit short of 22000 for AF.
Next, the data file does not show cases handled as adjustment of Status in the USA (people in the USA on temporary visas). That will probably take about 1000 of the 22000. So – we should assume 20500 as the rough target in CEAC.
Now, I do expect them to issue around 2000 every month and probably 3000 in September. That is at least 11000 on top of the 8500+ we already will have by the end of April. So – all they need to do is have some months where they issued 2200 or so, and they would hit the target.
April 29, 2015 at 08:50
could 63672 be the final cut-off???
April 29, 2015 at 18:08
WE have to just wait and see….
April 29, 2015 at 12:53
Ok take in 1800 for this next month
the response rate is 53/100
there will be (53 * 1800) / 100 + 1800 = 2754
this value in the excel file number is AF41535
April 29, 2015 at 18:13
Correct – however, how many of the 1800 interview slots will be taken by backlog cases (cases that were already current). That is why my estimate is what it is, and not as high as the 51535 you state.
April 29, 2015 at 13:01
forget this post from above
Ok take in 1800 for this next month
the response rate is 53/100
there will be (53 * 1800) / 100 + 1800 = 2754
for the next month: 2754 + 21750 = 24504
this value 24504 in the excel file is AF41535
April 29, 2015 at 18:14
Again – same comment – you are missing backlog.
April 29, 2015 at 13:24
Or 2200 / month as you say
assuming the response rate is 54/100
July: to 41.XXX
August: to 52XXX
September: to 63XXX
April 29, 2015 at 18:18
Yeah – sort of. The 2200 is issuances, whilst the 1800 is interviews that will yield the 2000/2200 issuances. But yeah – you are in the sort of ranges that I think are possible – and probably only a little optimistic because you are not accounting for the backlog yet. Also the final month can have a few more interviews since cases that go on AP in the final month don’t need to be accounted for as they will time out. So I see your July number as too high, August still a bit high and September might be possible….
May 1, 2015 at 12:52
Hello Mr BritSimon.
The number of winners between AF1 — AF30k is 20148
The number of winners between AF30k —- AF60k is 10580
If you look at the second part is almost half that of the first part.
In the first part is estimated to have delivered 8400 visas.
Do the math and you will see that they can significantly exceed AF60k hoped to have at most 21k visas.
May 1, 2015 at 14:05
No. You are not understanding things. Read this to understand better.
May 1, 2015 at 14:52
I see your reasoning.
I saw in their site saying the cases AP treatments will not exceed 60 days. So the last two months will be higher.
May 1, 2015 at 15:03
There is a “rush” of issuances in the last month as they push to clear APs. Last year 2000 per month for AF was about the pace, then 3000 were issued in September
May 1, 2015 at 15:14
My CN is AF598XX…May God help me to get an interview
May 1, 2015 at 15:30
fingers crossed for you!
May 1, 2015 at 15:50
in the risky area ?
May 1, 2015 at 16:27
Well I have been saying “up to 60 is safe”. Of course, with 5 months of processing remaining I cannot possibly say that 59999 is 100% safe and 60001 is risky. If the next VB is at the lower end of my expectations that would indicate more backlog cases taking interviews, and 598XX could start looking risky. Conversely, if the next VB comes at the upper end of my estimates then you can probably feel more confident. Let’s wait a few days and see what the VB brings.
April 27, 2015 at 10:30
i would like 2 provide,may b it cm in use 2 u..my friend got email from kcc for july interview wd case number AS644X , and he is frm nepal
April 27, 2015 at 14:43
2NLs for June are just going out – are you saying he got a 2NL for July?? Given his case is not current yet that seems doubtful.
April 28, 2015 at 02:20
well i told him the same thing..i doubted and was shocked as well bt found that it was from official website
April 28, 2015 at 04:51
Well honestly, I am certain it is not true – so there is more to the story than what is being said.
April 27, 2015 at 12:38
What does ” NVC” mean ?
April 27, 2015 at 14:45
For DV cases, it is just a default message meaning the case is not yet scheduled.
April 27, 2015 at 13:09
hi britsimon, looking at your last predictions, what about my cn AF599xx?is it safe?? thanks
April 27, 2015 at 14:48
I still expect the cutoff to be above 60000…
April 27, 2015 at 18:16
This DV is real confusing for higher cn
April 27, 2015 at 18:21
cutoff for Nepal will be same as your previous prediction for nepal( at least Cn AS 7600) or it wiil be change from this moment?
April 27, 2015 at 23:47
No change to that…
April 27, 2015 at 19:05
Hi Brit, could you please explain what’s the difference between CASES and MAX CASE NUMBERS?
Do you think we will reach case SA16XX?
April 27, 2015 at 23:49
The max case number is the highest number assigned in the draw. There are holes (gaps) in the numbers so there are less actual cases than case numbers. THe holes are disqualifications.
April 29, 2015 at 11:04
Hi Teddy, what info do you have about the percentage per country (7%), regards.
April 29, 2015 at 18:11
The 7% is an upper limit that no single country can exceed – it is 3500 (or a bit more if they allow the visas to go over 50000). However, that does not mean any country is pre-allocated 3500 visas.
April 27, 2015 at 19:14
Mr BritSimon, why are there given up to +110000 case number when they are not even able to interview 1/2? It’s frustrating and give unnecessary hopes
April 27, 2015 at 23:51
Every “you have been selected” letter says being selected is not a guarantee that you will get a visa. That statement is for this reason. They select more people than visas because not everyone proceeds – so, over selecting means they have enough people to be sure they will give out all the visas.
April 27, 2015 at 19:42
Still no 2NL letter for June interviews ?!
April 27, 2015 at 23:54
Yup – people are still waiting
April 27, 2015 at 23:59
Is this unusual ?
April 28, 2015 at 00:00
April 28, 2015 at 00:48
Do you think such delay would impact on the next month cut off numbers? I will go through AOS. Do you think my case number of AF44xxx is 100% safe? I’m worried since I already submitted my DS260 application and if I didn’t had an interview I wouldn’t be able to get student visa again in future in case I left the country for any reason.
April 28, 2015 at 01:09
No I don’t think this will impact anything. Yes AF44XXX is 100% safe.
April 27, 2015 at 20:59
Nepal embassy extended cancellation period for visa issuance. Now besides Monday (just passed), the embassy will not hold any interviews on Tuesday and Wednesday. Things are getting complicated in Nepal. My thoughts and prayers to all Nepalese people.
April 27, 2015 at 23:57
They must be dealing with a difficult situation…
April 28, 2015 at 00:58
yes, seems like a lot of people (mainly tourists) are using the embassy building as shelter. From what I heard in news the building lobby is overcrowded during the days.
April 28, 2015 at 01:10
April 28, 2015 at 01:13
Also it would be nice to ask your readers to go on this page and donate any amount they and support Nepalese who were hurt by this tragedy. http://www.supportunicef.org/
April 28, 2015 at 01:15
April 28, 2015 at 00:03
thanks a lot for your predictions…
Can you please explain in more detail your prediction for SA?
April 28, 2015 at 01:08
I am just looking at what I see for SA – due to the polical situation SA is likely to give us some surprises – so don’t be too concerned about the prediction….
May 1, 2015 at 03:37
What do you mean by surprises? Is it negative or postive? 🙁 Thank you!
May 1, 2015 at 05:31
That’s the thing about surprises – we don’t know….
April 28, 2015 at 00:55
what about 2015AF304xx from egypt.
April 28, 2015 at 01:10
It is a bit risky as it is higher than the number I felt was safe for Egypt. YOu can only wait and see…
April 28, 2015 at 07:14
Thank you again for your hard work. I was reading your post regarding prediction for Asia. You said it might be around 66XX to 67XX. So I’m wondering if my case number is 678x, will I be likely to have interview in July or August? Thank you for your response!
April 28, 2015 at 14:40
You will be on the borderline – so you won’t know for sure until you see the VB.
April 28, 2015 at 09:06
i really wonder how far the vbs , cn Af 50xxx go current with this pace? at first i bellieved this july might go upto 40 something cn am so taken aback is there any more chance of vbs going higher or it will continue with this pACE? thanks.
April 28, 2015 at 14:43
The pace of interviews is constant but the pace of VB movement can go faster. AF50XXX is safe.
April 28, 2015 at 13:29
Thanks for the update Brit but I believe that the cutoff for Africa will be above 75,000 and going forward, the VB will be nothing less than 10,000.
April 28, 2015 at 14:34
I hope you are right – but I fear you are not…
April 28, 2015 at 13:30
The final cutoff for Africa will be 75,000 or above.
April 29, 2015 at 09:10
Hi patricia i would wish you are right but with this slow pace it’s will be difficult….i think nothing is impossible to our LORD!!!let’s wait and see!!
April 28, 2015 at 14:01
What is your opinion regarding cn 745x Nepal from your predictionds now?
thank you for your words and effort to help Nepal.
April 28, 2015 at 14:37
That number is still safe. Good luck!
April 28, 2015 at 14:25
What is your opinion regarding cn 745x Nepal feom your analysis now?
Thank you for the effort to help Nepl.
April 28, 2015 at 18:44
Still a good number – basically safe BUT of course the earthquake may affect processing – we have to wait and see.
April 28, 2015 at 16:52
Firstly I wanna thanks for your warm support towards Nepal n nepalies ….we nepalies are in worst condition…. Plz pray for nepalies peoples…… Now what you think about nepalies selectees . what is the final cutoff of Nepal…. Mine is 785# any chances or not…. If yes …I want to know in percentage……. Thank you….
April 28, 2015 at 18:43
I can’t imagine what the people of Nepal are going through. Awful.
As for your case – well up to the weekend I would have said you were on the borderline to get through – too close to call one way or the other. Now, after the earthquake, it is difficult to say what impact there will be from the disruption caused. Maybe people will find it hard to travel, hard to get medicals, hard to obtain paperwork. So – this might make it more difficult for some people to proceed with their cases and some others might even decide they cannot leave their families at this difficult time of rebuilding Nepal. So – I think you might have a slightly better chance – but it is too soon to say for sure. For now, just keep safe and look after yourself and those around you. Good luck!
April 28, 2015 at 20:23
the case number EU374xx have any chances of winning?
April 28, 2015 at 21:01
Yes – almost certain chance
April 28, 2015 at 20:58
Hi Simon, just wanna say thanks you for the great work, please I need to know when my intervieuw,AF40000
April 28, 2015 at 22:42
YOu might squeeze in to a July interview – but I think August is more likely.
April 28, 2015 at 21:35
Do you have a better idea yet on where KCC have got to regarding the DS260 submission date? Do you think AF backlog will ever clear up?
April 28, 2015 at 22:44
I think we will spend at least one more month with a backlog in AF region. In reality there will remain a minimum processing period for the DS260 – so let us assume that would be (for example) 6 weeks. THat means mid May would be the final time for DS260 submission, but realistically it could be sooner than that.
April 28, 2015 at 22:00
Based on my calculations for AF i see next months range to be between 41000-43000? Based on 53% -65% response rate? What ya think:)?
April 28, 2015 at 22:49
I assumed we will have a total of 1800 interviews. So the question is, how many will be backlog cases. I assumed 80 of the 1000 would be backlog and 1000 would be new numbers. If that ends up being 300 that go to backlog cases and 1500 go to new numbers then we could see numbers around 42/43. However, I don’t think the backlog:new cases mix can change so quickly to 300:1500. It was almost the opposite of that last month. Even adjusted for Egypt/Ethiopia a 300:1500 ratio is highly optimistic.
May 5, 2015 at 00:50
Hi Brit, after looking at the May 1st update, AF had 1793 interviews scheduled, with 918 “in transit” does that mean that 875 of those are still from the backlog? Do you think we’ll still see big jumps after this May bulletin is released?
May 5, 2015 at 04:46
No, the 918 are simply cases that have not been marked as received by the embassies. The backlog cases were the majority of the 1793.
April 28, 2015 at 23:31
Thanks for the clarification!
April 28, 2015 at 23:44
Ok…now i get your range of 38xxx-39xxx. We can only hope that not so many are from the backlog in order to see it go over 40xxx. There must be no way of finding out, as I know you would have been on it already:) Thanks again for everything you do!
April 29, 2015 at 01:05
Well because of the screwup with 2NLs I don’t have good data on how far they got with DS260 submissions. However, I have based my assumptions on comments made to me and the split I saw in the 2NLs that just went out. I would expect the backlog to “tail off” and there is no evidence of that yet – hence my assumption that we will have at least partial impact for one more m onth
April 29, 2015 at 08:02
Based on full data, I believe AS will go up to 15xxx. This is based on current trend assuming no issues from continuing Nepal cases. Just my 2 cents
April 29, 2015 at 18:06
OK – let us see….
April 29, 2015 at 08:13
I should add this is the max it can go up to for those who want to hope. Realistically, would put it between high 13xxx to 14xxx. Btw, I’m a statistician by profession and just doing some fun iterations 🙂 Simon is still the master of predictions
April 29, 2015 at 18:07
Either way – we are both just tryiong to predict the future and provide information and comfort – so thanks for your thoughts!
April 29, 2015 at 10:10
my N° is 85 XXX, do i have any chance?
April 29, 2015 at 18:09
IN my honest opinion, no I don’t think so. Please have a plan B in mind.
April 29, 2015 at 20:38
Hello mister Simon,
My question is : what are the cases that go on AP ?!
April 29, 2015 at 21:06
It varies. Some people have documents missing and are given time to supply those missing documents. Other people need additional background checks for some reason.
April 30, 2015 at 10:45
hello,my cn is 76xxx do you think there is any hope to wait my second letter?
April 30, 2015 at 13:27
There is a very small chance – but that chance gets smaller each VB that stays low.
April 30, 2015 at 11:24
Glory be to God n to u Simon. Am Mrs. sackor n u told me that I was going to have June interview yes I have June 30 time 10:00am God bless n hope to get my visa n pray that I see u in the U. S . Thank a lot
April 30, 2015 at 13:34
Good luck with the interview!
April 30, 2015 at 22:17
thank you for your care sir , my Cn is AF51xxx do i have any chance to be scheduled for this DV lottery ? thank you
May 1, 2015 at 03:09
Yes – 100% chance!
May 1, 2015 at 06:20
Sorry for bothering you so much but I just want to hear it from you Brit, with af58XXX is my chance 100%?
May 1, 2015 at 14:08
That is what I have said!
May 1, 2015 at 21:56
May 1, 2015 at 23:12
I think that number is too high unless something very drastic happens.
May 2, 2015 at 01:26
hi im jema from africa my case is 53XXX i have a chance? and what month for my interview?
May 2, 2015 at 18:29
Yes 100% safe – September
May 3, 2015 at 05:31
My case number is 42xxx. based on prediction it will be in August. I am in USA . do u think that I can get interview as the adjustment status may take up to three months.
May 3, 2015 at 15:02
You can handle adjustment of status even in cases current in September. You have to use the early filing policy and you must make sure you do everything right. The best source of information for AOS is on the link below, including a spreadsheet with full guide on the aos process.
May 3, 2015 at 12:49
Hi. Sorry for bothering u. Given the number of selectees who were denied visa in africa. Are they goibg to exceed 50k.?
May 3, 2015 at 15:12
That is their target. There are more than enough selectees!
May 3, 2015 at 15:53
Hi am Pauline from Liberia n my CN is 2015AF585** do u think my number is safe, then when do I be aspecting my 2nl.
May 3, 2015 at 15:55
Should be fine – September interview – meaning a July 2NL
May 3, 2015 at 16:04
Thank a lot but I give birth on the 23 of April 2015 can I add my child now
May 3, 2015 at 17:51
Yes you should do that asap. Unlock your DS260, add the child to your own form (and your spouse) and use the add an applicant fature to add the child. You will need a passort and birth cert for the child and the child will need a medical also.
May 3, 2015 at 16:08
Thank a lot but I give birth on the 23 of April 2015 can I add my child on my programm
May 3, 2015 at 17:52
Are you related to Pauline??
May 3, 2015 at 22:06
No. She is my friend n she used my phone today.
May 3, 2015 at 23:43
May 5, 2015 at 07:59
hi mr. brit my CN iS AF578XX am i safe ??
May 5, 2015 at 13:50
May 5, 2015 at 18:01
what is the chance for 56XXX and if any when 2L is expected ??
May 5, 2015 at 19:33
100% chance. September interview (July 2NL)
May 5, 2015 at 18:05
Hi Brit, How long is it taking KCC to process late DS-260s?
May 5, 2015 at 19:34
It seems like around 2.5 months – but some cases can take longer.
May 5, 2015 at 19:28
BASED ON THE NEW DATA WHAT ARE MY CHANCES TO GET AN INTERVIEW MY NBR IS AF593XX
May 5, 2015 at 19:37
Still as I said before. I consider numbers up to AF60000 as safe.
May 5, 2015 at 19:51
May 6, 2015 at 07:36
my case number is AF 5637X
When the date of the interview ??
May 6, 2015 at 07:37
May 6, 2015 at 07:57
thks brit you give me a hope
May 6, 2015 at 09:46
I wonder how many CNs for EU do KCC need to issue 2000 visas with 70% approval rate and 60% response rate? isn’t the formula like this =2000/2.17/0.7/0.6=2,194? If so, why only 1300-1400 CNs are selected in the VBs and not more?
May 6, 2015 at 15:38
Because the approval/response rate is a bit higher than you are using and the first few months APs are coming through….
May 6, 2015 at 17:15
the response rate is even lower. It has been about 50% for the last 2000 CNs. The approval rate varies from 75% to 80%? even with 80% approval rate we get to 1900 CNs.
May 6, 2015 at 17:19
and returning APs?
May 6, 2015 at 17:24
Ahh I see your mistake.
Think about how many INTERVIEWS are needed at 100% response.
Each case is worth 1.8 people – right – so 1400 would be 2500 people. If the approval rate is 80% you get 2000 winners from 140 interviews.
Now to get 1400 interviews at let’s say 50% response you need to look at the next 2800 case numbers.
May 6, 2015 at 18:55
I see my mistake. thanks a lot, Simon!
Let’s see what jump we’ll see in the coming VB. Hope it will be released on Friday.
May 6, 2015 at 17:33
Last year for AF at this time there are about 55.000people waiting for get interview and the reponse rate was about 60% and visa issued about 10.000 of corse this year the density of case is big but peopl in waiting is half than last year.this year becoz of online registration many people submitted but never been at interview and from december2013 to december 2014 there are too much deaths than from december2012 to december 2013 if the kcc can take all this in considération meaning many case “ready” and at “nvc”will never be at interview so wait and see, brist is making statistics based on principles but not exactly like on the board of kcc so i predict Nothing we all follow brist he is the master here and made a good job wait and see if his prédictions will be the same lik thoz of kcc but May everybody keep calm ,kcc is the master of the game !thnk mr brist for your good job.!