The numbers are released – theses are for July interviews.
AFRICA 36500 (Last month 34150)
Egypt:27100 (Last month 24675)
Ethiopia: Matches AF (Last month 30000)
ASIA – 6850 (Last month 5950)
EUROPE – 35700 (Last month 34125)
OCEANIA – 1250 (Last month 1175)
SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN – 1175 (Last month 1075)
May 15, 2015 at 18:12
Thank for your efforts
My cb is 2105af54xxx. With this data should I go with AoS or PC in case it is current in Sept??
May 15, 2015 at 20:05
You have to make your own choice – but choose fast you are short of time to switch to CP
May 15, 2015 at 18:18
My cn is 2015af54xxx
Any chance ??? Do u advise me to go for AoS or CP in case it is current in Sept??
May 15, 2015 at 19:00
I have been working on the numbers. If we have 32,500(used density table to come up with total) max case number 65,000(a bit selfish;my CN is dv 2015 64,4xx). And response rate of 60%, that is, 19,500(cases)X 1.5 (derivatives)=29,250 X 0.65 (success rate)=19,012.
Is it far fetched? also, for derivatives used 39,299 minus 58,200 total cases which is=18,901(derivatives or 1.5 of real cases).
Also, looking through last years CEAC data(I know you caution against comparisons) but noticed the data for each month from July was month ahead of current bulletin, that is, 66,000 was in July bulletin;81,100 in August to Sept.
Look forward to feedback.
thanks for your patience through the longest and toughest wait.
May 15, 2015 at 20:57
It isn’t such a bad method. However, there are a couple of problems.
If you look at the cases in the CEAC data you will see that the AF derivative rate is higher than you use. The actual derivative rate is 1.88 at the moment.
Also- the response rates and success rates vary by country. So – you can use the averages like you have for a general idea – but it isn’t perfect. And of course you need to allow for about 1000 AoS cases.
There can be jumps in the last month. They no longer have to be cautious about future backlog cases, nor AP. So – I can easily see a smallish increase in the next VB and then a bigger one in the final VB. Of course – the embassies have a max capacity issue too – so there is a limit to what they could do EVEN IF they were massively under target (which they are not).
Best of luck with your case number!
May 15, 2015 at 19:34
The other way to do it is 32,500 X 1.5=48,750(cases plus derivatives. 48,750 X 0.7(70% response rate)=34,125 X 0.6=20,475. This is to 65,000
Does it work? This leaves 58,000-48.750=9,250 (above 65k plus family)
May 15, 2015 at 20:29
1. Do you think the DS260 backlog is the sole reason for the disappointing jump in CN’s in EU this month?
2. Will you be able to predict if there will be no jump in the final VB? Do you have any strategies to know if there will be no jump at all in CN’s for the final VB?
Mike (biting nails)
May 15, 2015 at 22:21
1. I don’t know because I have not seen the 2NL data yet.
2. Sort of. It is predictions – predicting something that even KCC are predicting (and sometimes get wrong). So – the final result that matters is the VB that is released in July.
May 16, 2015 at 01:17
Hello Britsimon, I just read your post about Iran above………..i’ve got 12225, do you think this current pace Iran is on will continue……..could it be just a growth spurt if you will lol……….i’ve spent a lot of time waiting for this……..if it’s hopeless 100% i’ll move on to other dreams…………ahhh it’s such a dream of mine……..such luck 🙁
May 16, 2015 at 03:17
You can’t “give up” at your number. It could still happen for you. In about 6 weeks time we will know the final numbers….
May 16, 2015 at 01:32
Nepal limit is due to earthquake or had hit the country quota. Any conclusion.. any chance for nepal 67xx. Thanks
May 16, 2015 at 03:18
I consider 67XX for Nepal a safe number.
May 16, 2015 at 03:10
Do you think KDU embassy will operate fully (for DV issuance) this month if everything goes ok?
How many DVs are remaining for Nepal now onwards?
Will KDU embassy issue exactly 3500 visas or less than that (as in 2014)?
May 16, 2015 at 03:42
Hi, Simoni can you answer it for sure that upto case number 6475 is not final cut off number for Nepal and KCC will at least release a next visa bulletin for Nepal in July.
May 16, 2015 at 04:35
I don’t think Nepal is going to end at 6475…. I’m pretty sure this was the earthquake.
May 16, 2015 at 12:05
Hi Brit, is my CN 2015AF41XXX safe? which month do you think will be the interview and when do I expect my 2NL? Thanks alot
May 16, 2015 at 15:31
Yes safe – interview in August most likely, maybe September.
May 16, 2015 at 12:12
hello brit i get a problem my interview is June 3 and i am from Ethiopia and i married after i won dv and i completed DS260 with my wife but to register DHL service they need also my wife conformation number of the DS260 ,the principal applicant must be both of us ,so what shall i do?
May 16, 2015 at 16:03
She is on your case number
May 18, 2015 at 09:36
the embassy also on DS260 the principal applicant must be both us and the said for my wife the form will be released on interview date
May 18, 2015 at 09:40
the embassy also says on DS260 the principal applicant must be both us and the said for my wife the form will be released on interview date do know about this process
May 16, 2015 at 16:44
I just learned on a blog ( dviste.com ) that to date, only 9431 visas were distributed for Africa on 20 000 probables- Can you confirm the information?
May 16, 2015 at 16:58
Their source of data is my extract file I posted last night – so yeah – it is correct!
May 16, 2015 at 20:31
i hv 54xxx what’s about my chance !,, plz BritSimon @fatima terasa !,,, i m scary about it thanks for help
May 16, 2015 at 20:39
You still have a chance…
May 16, 2015 at 21:21
my question…my cn is 2015af 499xx…risky or not
May 16, 2015 at 21:33
Should be OK
May 17, 2015 at 00:50
My reading has suggested to me that the POST June Visa bulletining released has received the highest numbers of comments since September 2014. it this correct?
May 17, 2015 at 05:43
Britsimon no news on 2nl and predictions for August? Am so anxious to see my number current next visa bulletin in hope of happens,I’m almost given up
May 18, 2015 at 01:37
No 2NLs yet – but read this https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-update/
May 17, 2015 at 07:48
Hi Brit! I still hope for EU441XX. Is it possible?
May 18, 2015 at 01:34
Very risky – I expect the cutoff to come before that number. 🙁
May 17, 2015 at 09:07
my question…my cn is 2015af49*** from Egypt…risky or not
May 18, 2015 at 01:32
You were not born in Egypt though – am I correct? There should be no Egyptian cases at your number. So – if you are really from Egypt – you are NOT safe, but if from some other AF region country you are safe.
May 17, 2015 at 14:29
Please ,to the date of May, 17; 2015, how many visas remain to distribute for Africa .
May 18, 2015 at 01:15
May 18, 2015 at 09:37
My CN is AF 57XXX , Brit, please tell me the truth. It is safe 100/100 ?
May 18, 2015 at 14:23
I cannot be precise – you have to wait and see.
May 18, 2015 at 12:38
Hi Britsimon…What do you think about our number EU418xx….is there any chance for us?
May 18, 2015 at 14:02
That is too high to be certain and too low to be hopeless – You can only wait and see.
May 18, 2015 at 12:58
Simon hello! First of all thank you for your effort Secondly digital AF40 *** Is there hope in the next month
May 18, 2015 at 14:01
Some hope for August and if not, September
May 18, 2015 at 17:35
Thank you thank you thank you for the great hope
May 19, 2015 at 15:26
When is the date of coming Monthly Bulletin (today)
May 19, 2015 at 17:46
Next VB is about 3 weeks from now.
May 27, 2015 at 06:42
My wife is pregnant in the first month is there are forms
May 18, 2015 at 19:43
As we know they are fewer selectees for the DV2016? Do you think my 201641*** CN has any chances? If yes, when my interviewwill be scheduled?
May 18, 2015 at 20:09
You left out the region so it could be EU or AF. Best to write is like 2016AF41XXX. So – if it is AF then it is probably quite safe and would interview just over 1 year from now. . I would be surprised if it is an EU number – but I don’t know the max numbers yet.
May 19, 2015 at 05:50
when is DS260 begin for dv 2016 winners?
May 19, 2015 at 13:44
You can submit now.
May 21, 2015 at 18:58
Hi Simon! my CM is SA13**….i wrote to the KCC to see if my dv 260 form is correct. They told me that “my forms have been received and pending further embassy review for the continuation of your visa processing. Interviews are scheduled numerically based on case numbers that have completed processing.” Do you know what does it exactly means? they told me the same in january. I hope to be lucky in the VB of july or august
May 21, 2015 at 19:09
Their message means your DS260 has completed processing. When your case number becomes current on the visa bulletin, they will schedule the interview.
May 22, 2015 at 17:41
hello mr brit i think u miss something on marriage after wining of DV but completing DS260 together then the interview latter comes saying my wife beneficiary that mean i am the one who apply for the visa not my wife. what do u say?
May 22, 2015 at 18:00
I’m not sure I understand your question.
May 30, 2015 at 21:36
hi sir we are from egypt and our CN is 2016AF00003XXX we submitted ds260 in may so what do thint about 2NL and the interview ?? thank you
May 30, 2015 at 23:49
Probably October interview – and that will mean 2NL in August.
May 31, 2015 at 02:35
June 1, 2015 at 20:52
My number for EU is 397xx, what do you think about my chance?
June 1, 2015 at 21:13
You still have a chance….
June 7, 2015 at 07:47
we are Ethiopians staying outside our country, with case number of 13xxx and 27xxx
1.can you tell as the possible interview day
2.we already filled the ds 260 form ,now we are planning to go to our country,so is there any requirments for to take in the place where we residing now for interview
June 7, 2015 at 16:52
1. Ethiopia may go slower than the rest of Africa so wait a few months to see how that proceeds.
2. You might want to get the police certificates while you are there. Read the dvselectee instructions to see if you need to provide the police cert.
June 9, 2015 at 08:02
What are your expectations coming brochure should Lei
June 9, 2015 at 08:06
July 27, 2015 at 02:48
Hi Brit, i appreciate how you take the time to answer all questions. I just want to find if I will have a chance for interview seeing that they are reducing the numbers every year. My CN is 201600038xxx. Do u think they will be a back log or reduction in the 2016 lottery
July 27, 2015 at 03:15
I assume that is an AF region number. If so, you can consider that safe.