OK – so the VB was released today and whilst some people are happy, many are finding the progress is not what they hoped. There is no doubt that this year was generally “over selected”. They selected nearly 116k people for 50k visas. They need to overselect to some extent (because many people don’t follow through with the win) but ideally they should select about 100k people. What that means is that some people will not be able to get interviews. We have known that for a long time – so even though we cannot be certain of the final cutoffs – at least people with high numbers can get themselves mentally prepared that they may not get the GC this year. If you want to read more about selectee numbers – read this article.
So – let’s review each region.
The progress up to this point has been about what it should be. There are four months remaining, and the important thing to know is that density will drop significantly for the next VB. So – although the pace may seem slow to some of you, it is about to get a bit faster for the remaining four months. This won’t be a surprise to anyone that has been paying attention to what I have said in the past and understood the density chart on this page.
Disregarding the two limited countries, the VB increased from 21100 to 24800 – a difference of 3700 case numbers. Because of holes that meant 2771 cases within that number spread (Remember this IGNORES the affect of limited countries – Egypt and Ethiopia). Now – because density drops, if KCC wanted to make say 2700 cases current next month, that would require the VB to increase to AF30000 – an increase of 5200 case numbers. And if the month after that they wanted to add another 2700 cases (ignoring holes and disregarding limited countries) that would require an increase to 35450. So – I am not predicting those as solid numbers – but it is more than reasonable to expect an increase in pace.
Furthermore, visas issued are slightly behind where I would expect at this point, so there are enough as to support this increased pace. For the final numbers I still say WAIT and SEE, but I see no reason why we can’t get to the numbers I previously discussed – which was mid 40’s.
Egypt and Ethiopia are still held back in the VB. That is normal, and it is due to the number of cases for those two countries. However, I am not able to guess the progress for those two countries. However there are FOUR months left – so please be patient.
Frankly it is NOT possible to predict AS progress. A HUGE number of AS selectees are affected by the travel ban. The challenge to the ban is being heard in late April, so it is possible (though not that likely) that the ban could be removed. If it is, I have no idea whether previously banned selectees would be given a chance, and if it isn’t removed I have no idea whether KCC will be able to re-allocate visas to non banned selectees. Really – I simply cannot guess what will happen. Please don’t ask me to guess – you are just going to get the “wait and see” answer.
OC is progressing exactly as expected – perhaps even a little faster than expected. . I still think numbers above 1400 have some risk – so I expect VB increases of about 100/150 a month and then the number will probably stop increasing in August (ish). I am CERTAIN the region cannot go current.
Similar to OC region – it’s progressing well, but as I have previously explained, there is risk for higher numbers. I am CERTAIN the region cannot go current.
This one needed to be left to the end. Of the three large regions it is the simplest in one sense (no limited countries), BUT things are VERY different this year to a normal year. As I have explained before – we have normally seen just two countries (Uzbekistan and Ukraine) that have been limited during the selection process. This happens when a country has a large amount of entries in the lottery. This year – three more countries achieve the maximum number of selectees – Russia, Turkey and Albania. This was a Sudden increase from one year to the next. In the case of Albania, there must have been at least 500k people participating in the lottery (as entrants or derivatives). That might not sound like a lot – but when you consider the population of the country is less than 3 million people, it is a HUGE NUMBER. This is clearly agent driven, so – that is bound to have an effect – but we won’t know exactly what effect until the year is over. For now we can only guess.
Now thanks to those people who are helping with the scraper, we do have some data to work with – so let’s explore that data.
According to the CEAC data, EU has had 8274 visas issued as of March 12. In addition there are 915 people on AP, and 5810 cases marked as ready.
Some (most in fact) of the AP cases will be approved later. AP processing seems slower this year than previous years, and additional security checks and measures are likely the reason for that.
Of the ready cases, they fall into three groups.
- No shows. These are cases that were scheduled, but the selectee did not show up for their interview. Some of those will reschedule – but many (most) won’t. So – if a case shows ready and it is under the number that could have been interviewed last month, it is most likely a no show. Of the 5810 ready cases, about 1800 to 2000 could be that scenario. However, that number seems high – so I don’t totally trust the number.
- Late updates. These cases have been interviewed, but the embassy have not updated the outcome yet.
- Future scheduled cases. Since cases are marked as ready a head of time we always have a large number of ready cases that are scheduled in the remainder of this month or next month. In addition, each month there are late submissions. These are people that did not submit their DS260 early, so they get scheduled in a month later than their “current” month.
So – it is not accurate to assume that all 5800+ ready cases will become issued – but we could easily assume that 3000 to 4000 of those people will get visas – leaving 6000 to 7000 visas for the final five months of processing. The May interviews are now being set, and as we know, the increase from 15950 to 18050 was low. In fact – that increase only made 1200 new cases current – nearly half of which will be non response cases. So – there has been a noticeable slowdown in scheduled interviews this month and last month (for April and May interviews). I don’t know the reason for that slowdown.
However, looking at the data I think it is looking increasingly likely that EU will have a cutoff lower than I previously hoped. I mentioned before that the risk zone starts as low as 33XXX – and that is still true – but as time goes on, unless pace increases we could see a number even lower than that – because the embassies cannot handle all the activity in the final month or two.
The other thing that is troubling to me is the low number of resolved cases in Uzbekistan. Given that all their cases are concentrated under 10700 – all were entitled to interviews by February. Uzebekistan gets a high success rate (selectee to visas issued) – so by now I would expect to see 2500 to 3000 visas issued in Uzbekistan. However, the actual number is about half that expected range – so – I am not sure why that number is low.
There is a lot of data, and it is hard/impossible to predict the progress over the coming months. I have been saying we need to wait and see. That is sensible advice. This year is going to be hard to predict. So really – although everyone is sick of hearing these words, the wisest decision is to WAIT and SEE!
March 20, 2018 at 18:49
March 21, 2018 at 09:04
I have made a comparison between DV2017 EU and DV2018 EU, I know every year is different but I think it deserves to be looked at
The fact that draw my attention is: Uzbekistan(2018-Ready) + Uzbekistan(2018-Issued) = 2000 visas while DV2017(Uzbekistan-Issued) = 3138 visas. Since they reach the per-country limit, we have at least +1138 visas more than the last year. ( I know the number of visas that will be given is not the same, but at least there is not going to issue 3000 visas to uzbekistan)
And Ukraine is the same as the last year.
March 21, 2018 at 10:21
Hi Buro, thanks for the comparison you made. Did you get into account the AP cases. There are many AP cases especially in Uzbekistan and Russia. From what I saw from the graphs from previous years in Russia there are many uncleared AP cases by the end of the FY.
March 21, 2018 at 13:23
Why do you think that there will not be ~3000 visas for Uzbekistan?
March 21, 2018 at 13:40
Yes – this is what I mentioned in the article above.
March 22, 2018 at 10:14
Thank you Buro, good comparison. Top 4 countries have lots of Ready and AP cases, this might explain the EU slowdown. Russia for example have 747(ready) +119(Ap), thats alot of cases for just 1 embassy.
March 24, 2018 at 06:22
I saw that in the past years many AP cases in Russia remain uncleared by the end of the FY.
March 21, 2018 at 09:10
Hey Brit I just got my visa!!! Tank you for everything what you do!!!
March 21, 2018 at 12:53
Hey Brit I’ve been approved this morning and they said that I can go pick up my passport next week, is normal that the ceac status check says administrative processing?
March 21, 2018 at 13:33
March 21, 2018 at 16:36
At this point, would it be abnormal for a region to halt progress for the next bulletin? Our case fell short by just 200 cases or so for May, so we’re 95% preparing for a June interview.
My husband has a moderate surgery (and surrounding pre/post-op appointments) coming up and so this week we’ve been working with the doctors to schedule that stuff, assuming a June interview. I figured 200 cases is an (almost) guaranteed progress for next bulletin?
Thanks and sorry, we really are patient – but his surgery will render him immobile for a few weeks and we need to ensure we leave proper recovery time for travel to the interview, as well as ensuring he will have time to get in for his medical before his procedure.
March 21, 2018 at 17:46
Yes it would be unusual, but not unheard of.
March 22, 2018 at 03:37
Okay great, I will keep that in mind. Thanks!
March 22, 2018 at 05:08
Hi, When you say “SA region, Similar to OC region – it’s progressing well, but as I have previously explained, there is risk for higher numbers”, higher numbers are???
March 22, 2018 at 05:15
March 22, 2018 at 17:58
according to vBulletin progress, that around 1200 real cases are added each month I did some calculation for eu region for the next 4 visa bulletin and got me scared.
may 18050 +1200 real case
june 20618 +1200 real case
july 23382 +1200 real case
august 26198 +1200 real case
and means for me that with this capacity it will stop around 29.000 for europe.
can this calculation be somehow correct?
March 22, 2018 at 18:05
The VB progress for the last two VBs was low. If you use that pace to project forward, you will scare yourself. I don’t know why KCC was holding the pace back – so we need to wait and see what happens.
March 22, 2018 at 18:12
is it kcc or the embassies?
March 22, 2018 at 18:16
also, I am still hoping for a big “jump”. Density might be higher this year, but at this point we have much less backlog. This jump should have already been last months, but I am still hoping for them to come for the months to follow…
March 22, 2018 at 18:19
still hoping on previous thought that they would want to make about 1500 REAL INTERVIEWS happen from now on, meaning they could make about 2000 real cases current. that could still bring us to about 34….
March 22, 2018 at 18:40
No. 1500 real interviews is something like 2800 real cases which would be OVER 5000 VB numbers per month at the new density level.
March 22, 2018 at 18:42
lol, well even better!
March 22, 2018 at 19:21
I didnt remember correctly… however, hoping that we get back to the about 1150 interviews scheduled per month, which would take about 2000 real cases scheduled per month. That can lead to 34-35.
March 22, 2018 at 18:34
KCC schedule cases – but embassies can give feedback if they are finding their capacity is exceeded.
March 22, 2018 at 18:38
let us just hope the last slow VB were not capacity issues. 1200 scheduled cases- more or less 700-800 real interviews, spread over a month in 40 countries should not be capacity though. even if 3 countries have a bit more people.
March 22, 2018 at 21:53
Looking at the file numbers, it is seen that the last file number for ukraine is 15927 and Uzbekistan is 14836. What does this mean? Do you think we will have a chance to see more positive progress in the upcoming visa bulletin?
March 22, 2018 at 22:47
Uzbekistan ended below 10700. The charts show the density reduction, and I have written many explanations you could read.
March 22, 2018 at 23:47
Ukraine will come with more than 15927. I think CN from there end around 19000 + not all CN are visible now, onlz those below april cutoff.
March 23, 2018 at 02:45
LOL – thanks – I haven’t checked it, but we can see density of all the number ranges in the raw data. The next drop after Uzbekistan will be Ukraine.
March 25, 2018 at 11:15
Simon, is that mandatory that all EU visas 18400 should be issued out?
March 25, 2018 at 11:17
they dont have to issue all visas
March 25, 2018 at 17:56
March 22, 2018 at 20:25
I am in the process of AOS from L1 to greencard (diversity lottery). I sent cashier check to DOS on 12th of March. I see (USPS tracking) that my letter was recived on 14th of March.
U.S. Department of State
Diversity Visa Program
P.O. Box 979079
St. Louis, Missouri 63197-9000
….But they still didn’t cashed or send me any reciept.
I checked carefully your page regarding AOS only (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QQOfPe1WCAzFPN-StuehgQYYkckwtJYI6OLhX6UIIEg/edit#gid=0) , and see that many people usually quickly recive confirmation of payment.
Could you give me any advice regarding this issue? Do I need to wait or make give them a call? One week passed from the moment they recived my mail with a check.
March 22, 2018 at 20:37
The spreadsheet is not my work. It was compiled by Sm1smom.
March 22, 2018 at 21:17
Yeah, I understand . My question was about the timeframe when DOS deposit checks . Thank you
March 23, 2018 at 14:06
I just saw the comment from Dima and saw in the spreadsheet that some of the case numbers were pretty high – more than 37XXX. When I asked KCC about an adjustment for my situation, to be able to stay in the US they said I had to wait for my case number (33XXX) to become current….. but when I see that it does not seem right. I am currently on a J1 ending in 1 month. Do you think I can file a AOS?
March 23, 2018 at 18:14
You cannot file AOS until your number is announced in the VB.
March 26, 2018 at 16:21
Thank you Brit. If all case numbers become current in the coming months, do I have better chances to get received for an interview in France rather than in the US? or it does not make any change?
March 26, 2018 at 17:32
There are pros and cons each way. I honestly cannoty tell you which way to choose – it is your choice.
March 22, 2018 at 21:17
I sent mine 3/6 and they cashed my check on 3/13. Have yet to receive the receipt in the mail as well, just sitting tight!
March 22, 2018 at 22:02
1. How many visas gives for EU from october- at now?
2. On what month visas will be end?
March 22, 2018 at 22:45
1. About 9000.
2. Wait and see.
March 23, 2018 at 10:42
I recently re-submitted my DS260 form today by correcting an information on It.
Since I was expecting to be interviewed on June with my case no. EU18706, could you kindly advise whether this re-submission process would delay my interview or shall I expect my case to be processed quickly and sent to embassy before June interviews announced ?
Thx & regards.
March 23, 2018 at 18:09
March 23, 2018 at 11:41
Please sir, how many visas have been issued for AF so far and how many are left.
March 23, 2018 at 18:11
March 23, 2018 at 18:25
Hi dear Brit. When U2 countries (holes) will be in progress?
March 23, 2018 at 18:27
You can see that here:
March 23, 2018 at 18:44
1. Ok On 20th march DV2018 compared with DV2015 50% more issusied visas. It really danger for people whos CN more 27k. Am I right?
2. In there:
I can not find information about U2 countries holes.
March 23, 2018 at 19:26
2. The holes, by definition, are not associated with a country – but if you look at the pattern of the holes you can see when those countries hit their selectee limits (and therefore understand the U2 holes).
March 23, 2018 at 20:56
Every year Uzbekistan and Ukraina had some limits.
But this year we dont see it. Why?
And this year U2 countries maybi 5. Albania, Turkey, And Russia.
March 23, 2018 at 21:12
We do see some limits on the U2 countries, I don’t think you are understanding the visualization. Please look more carefully. And yes I have described the three additional countries in previous articles.
March 23, 2018 at 19:51
We can keep in touch at j.deniss[at]gmail.com if you are from Romania.
March 23, 2018 at 20:52
I am from Belarus
March 24, 2018 at 13:44
I can prove the ownership of car and properties.. but how can I prove the values?
I am from Egypt.
March 25, 2018 at 03:57
I’m one of the lucky boy that won DV2018 with EU23XXX CN. Thanks for your great work and support! I’m not going to ask if my case number will be current ?
I sit and did some calculations and analysis for EU. According to my calculations until now (till 13800 CN and issued visas 9052).
Issue Rate – 65%
AP – 6%
No show up (those may get interviewed) – 5.5%
Refuse Rate – 5.5%
No show up (those won’t do interview) Rate – 18%
In my below calculations I didn’t use Refuse Rate – 5.5% and No show up (those won’t do interview) Rate – 18%, only used Issue rate 65%, AP (as 5% because I believe all AP won’t get cleared) and No show up (those may get interviewed) as 5%. In brief I took a issue rate as 75%.
As per calculations – Derivative and growth rate was calculated as 2.35.
Until 13800 (end of March) and also 6 months period;
Issue – 9052 +10% (AP and No show up) = 9052+1400 (14000 total w/t derivative) = appr. 10450. Now let’s look at predictions for next 6 months period.
Total 2150 cases got current in which 555 cases were submitted or you may call it real cases.
Total number of selectee = 555×2.35=1304 people
Total number of issued=1304×0.75=978 (including predicted AP and now show ups). I took this as 1000 for April and
May so 10450+1000+1000=12450 so far.
Net case numbers = 3250/3.82 (hole, no response etc.) = 850 CN
Total number of selectee = 850×2.35 (D.R) = 2000 people
Total # of issued = 2000×0.75=1500 people
21300+3250 = 24550 CN and Total # of issued = 2000×0.75=1500 people
24550+3250 = 27800 CN and Total # of issued = 2000×0.75=1500 people
27800+3250 = 31050 CN and Total # of issued = 2000×0.75=1500 people
In conclusion, until June we have 12450 issued visas and end of DV2018 there will be 18450.
These are my predictions as per my calculations that’s why don’t take it seriously, the real one may turn out to be different.
Have a good day!
March 25, 2018 at 06:54
Gannaly, how did you get such low refuse rate?
I assume, that refuse rate is a % of refusals from total amount (issued + refused). And it’s 9.8% This number is more or less constant for Jan 10.1%; Feb 9.9%; Mar 9.8%.
March 25, 2018 at 08:43
I took total amount as a total number of people who got 2NLs which is sum of issued, refused, AP and No show ups.
March 25, 2018 at 07:38
I agree with u only for June.
March 25, 2018 at 08:57
Vlad, you may be right at some point. We may see the CN increases between 3250-3400. If we assume 3400 then for Sep we may hit 31500.
March 25, 2018 at 15:39
In May 2017 there were 3177 visas issued for 1576 real cases, so the embassies can process more . We may see 5000-6000 increase if regional quota is around 20000.
March 25, 2018 at 09:28
What if you calculate the other regions using the same method, then sum visas to be issued at the end. Will it be around 44000 visas issued in total?
March 25, 2018 at 11:18
Each region has its own rates, they are not same at all. You should check back 4-6 months data, get your rates and predict future by your calculations. For EU, after 20000, holes are more or less same thats why in order to get 18500 (I’m not sure how many visas are allocated for EU, as I remember it is around this number) i evenly divided issued visas for the last 4 months.
March 25, 2018 at 11:38
@gannaly. Your calculation is wrongest ever in history. The only thing that you did right is your guess thar you are a lucky boy with that cn. LoL a hope nothing you said will happen
March 25, 2018 at 11:45
@erdion. I also want to belive gannaly made a mistake. But that method seems quite reasonable- (I feel at this point any method can somewhat convince me). Where do you think gannaly made a mistake?
March 25, 2018 at 12:30
My predictions may not be true but at least i did that based on some data. I advise you should also speak with proof.
March 25, 2018 at 13:45
Why are you making all your estimatons according to last 2 months. Go back 6 months. 13800 cutoff, 9300 visa with 10500 real case. 2017 eu issued visa nearly 21000 more than AF. My estimation is, next 4 months more than 7000 real case will be current.
March 25, 2018 at 14:19
I did make my calculation based on all the data which is from beginning of Oct 2017. You wont get any info by using last two months.
March 26, 2018 at 11:07
@gannaly sorry if I am wrong. Did you estimate April’s and May’s cut-off number according to six month data. For example did you catch 15950 and 18050.
March 25, 2018 at 17:54
@Eridon, I don’t agree with the numbers either – but there is no need to be rude simply because someone puts out numbers you don’t like.
March 25, 2018 at 22:00
@Brit @gannaly I apologize to gannaly and all mambers of this blog. I only wanted to get some attention for further explanation on that calculation. I found that post very accurate as math, i congratulate gannaly for his help but it scares me because of my high cn. As math i found no mistakes in his calculation but also that seems very cold to me…..
@ gannalay… I believe we could use your method but to be more accurate with final numbers we should calculate the whole process divided in each country and than we should assemble all results in one “near final number”. I am trying this based almost in your formula and partially in other information i can find about every country. It seems still hard to get a good approximate because i only been involved in this year of dv. I agree with you about the formula and think you were right probably for June prediction. We can try another calculations but dont consider as basic. It seems to me more than math, as psychology, demography, economics and who knows… It changes from case to case, from segment to segment, from range to range, from country to country, region to region and year to year. I emphasize your way but i wish your conclusion is wrong and i though is wrong. So lets make another try. Sorry for being rude
March 25, 2018 at 22:30
March 25, 2018 at 12:46
I used your method but assumed that the derivative rate was 2,2 and the difference in visa issued is about 550 visas less which is maybee 2000 CN more. In fact, your calculation is good but any slight difference in one of the factors you use could make considerable difference in the CN made current.
March 25, 2018 at 17:53
Even 2.2 is high. The early rates such as response and derivative and so on have been skewed by Uzbekistan.
March 26, 2018 at 08:19
Thanks Brit, that is reassuring.
March 26, 2018 at 11:13
Brit, what would be your guesstimate derivative rate from now on? 2.1? 2.0?
March 26, 2018 at 13:56
I’m on a tablet right now – but take the DV2017 and DV2015 final numbers.
March 26, 2018 at 14:05
could you link me to them? I dont know where to find them.
March 26, 2018 at 14:23
for DV15, i get about 1,6. that seems very low. can that be right?
March 26, 2018 at 14:41
oh. Actually I got 2.21 as the derivative rate for dv17 🙁 🙁 :(.
March 26, 2018 at 15:22
Right, so since Uzbekistan has skewed the curgent rate higher than that, it would make sense the remaining derivative rate would be lower than the 2017 and 2015
March 26, 2018 at 15:41
I hope your right, brit. I really really do. I just know I need jumps from at least 3700 CN numbers per month at this point to become current. And then hope that there are visas left. I just dont know how to stay optimisitc. With 1600 selectees more this year, plus a couple hundered that didnt become current in DV15, minus less available visas in DV18 it would make sense to assume that about the last 2000 real cases wont get a visa this year. We really need some factor working in our favor this year, and I keep looking, but cant really find it. Still holding on to your agent theory, and a lower response rate from now on…but as time passes, even if these changes were to happen, it doesnt give embassies much time to react. I wish I had a 31XXX or maybe a 35xxx. I could tend towards the one or other direction. But with a 333xx, I feel that every little change can make a diffrent, so I keep looking for it…
March 26, 2018 at 15:54
RXY equal 3700 jumps won’t reach 33xxx…
March 26, 2018 at 16:05
well then make them 3900. That doesnt really change my point though
March 26, 2018 at 19:03
Month Visas Cases dev rate
October 532 263 1.90
November 1244 574 2.04
December 1765 762 2.19
January 1672 698 2.20
February 1915 876 2.07
March 2293 984 2.13
April 2048 913 2.05
May 3177 1423 2.02
June 1880 851 1.87
July 957 453 1.67
August 1162 548 1.63
September 1269 562 1.32
total: 19914 8907 2.24
March 26, 2018 at 19:08
oh, the previous is wrong:
Month Visas ussuied Cases dev rate
October 532 263 2.02
November 1244 574 2.17
December 1765 762 2.32
January 1672 698 2.40
February 1915 876 2.19
March 2293 984 2.33
April 2048 913 2.24
May 3177 1423 2.23
June 1880 851 2.21
July 957 453 2.11
August 1162 548 2.12
September 1269 562 2.26
total: 19914 8907 2.24
March 26, 2018 at 08:11
Hi Brit. Is gannalyes predick right?
How are u think about this predicktion?
March 26, 2018 at 17:49
I will wait and see…
April 11, 2018 at 18:12
I honestly find that the most accuarate and best explained “prediction” on this blog. I wish It had come earlier ;). However, I was wondering why you only got 555 cases for march and april, if in fact about 950 were made current each? Anyhow, I think if you had that number higher, you would have pretty much nailed the june cut off 😉
March 25, 2018 at 23:11
Dear Simon First, thank you for your advice and useful advice ,,, I am a lottery winner for the year 2018 and case number 27000 wait to set the date of the interview I am single not married to the moment. Can I marry before or not and can I take my wife with me to America or not? What do you advise me to do? Please please tell me the subject. Who told me that the subject is very, very difficult?
March 26, 2018 at 00:02
*IF* this is a genuine pre-existing relationship – then that is OK.
March 26, 2018 at 15:40
According to official data 7836 visas issued at the end of february – EU region. Incl 4827 visas issued to „Big Fife” countries – more than half. More than 2200 visas issued just in february – 50% more that averagely expected 1500 per month – it’s no surprise that they slowed down VB progress for april and may.
March 26, 2018 at 15:47
Erratum: should be slightly less than 2200 instead more than 2200. 2187 exactly – but not big difference.
March 26, 2018 at 16:18
Sir, we almost know that information from CEAC Data before. But In March it will be very low. 1158 (Issued + AP) in March according to csv file. ( I hope I got sum from the right data )
March 26, 2018 at 16:42
I know that from ceac files we have more recent data, but looking at it you can’t be sure of those numbers. Also you cannot follow monthly issuance values as you don’t know which case was issued which month and there may be update delays. I don’t think that march will be low – probably will be the highest so far. That’s why i prefer to wait for more accurate data.
March 26, 2018 at 16:44
???? of course march will be low. Did you see how little cases were called!?
March 26, 2018 at 16:49
ah, sry, youre right. March will probably be high
March 26, 2018 at 19:59
Actually we can get a pretty good estimate from CEAC data. Even using naive approach (taking into account ‘statusDate’ field and summing Issued cases) yields pretty decent result: 2264 visas for EU issued in February, which is within 4% of relative error wrt official data published today. This estimate can be of course refined…
BTW using similar approach for March yields ~1700 Issued visas so far with a week of March still to go.
March 26, 2018 at 20:25
Thanks xart! Your work is really appreciated !
March 26, 2018 at 21:38
Thx Xarth, I think this 1700 visas issued is very, very optimistic. I can see that “crowded” embassies like Kiev, Tirana show a lot of ready cases – i think those are not updated yet so number of issued visas is probably higher. Regarding the issued visas I was looking at your graph showing 2187 visas for EU – february.
March 26, 2018 at 22:08
There is no doubt that some cases will not have been updated by the embassies – but after a while it becomes clear that many of the ready cases could simply stay at ready status. However, the behavior varies from year to year. If you look at Kiev in DV2015, you will see about 30% of the cases stayed at ready status by the end of the year. In DV2017 that number was much less. We don’t know the difference between the years regarding this phenomenon , so we have to see whether DV2018 will be more like DV2015 or DV2017.
March 26, 2018 at 22:38
I wish it was so as you speak Brit. But looking at Kiev i doubt that suddenly so many ready cases as we can see between 10700 and 13800 will stay ready meaning “no shows” it’s not how it behaved it earlier CN ranges. So that’s makes me think that those countries are not updated yet. Kiev haven’t updated last buletin yet, completely no cases above 15950, not even in transit – they are behind with updating info.
March 27, 2018 at 11:49
carlos, keep a little bit of light in the dark!
March 27, 2018 at 12:09
Brit, I calculated last years deritative rate (2.2) and this years deritative rate until Uzbekistan maxed out (2.1). Does that mean we can expect a deritative rate below 2.1 from now on?
March 27, 2018 at 16:09
Your numbers don’t look right – so I’m not going to get into the numbers. But we have discussed the rationale several times. Derivative rate normally increases over time BUT The overall derivative rate for the region is affected when country (or more) have a high concentration of winners and a higher than average derivative rate. Uzbekistan meets those criteria.
Again you are looking for precision. As I have told you before – NONE of this is precise.
March 26, 2018 at 22:03
Today I checked visa statistics for SA and just 57 case numbers were interviewed for a total 143 visas issued in February. The derivatives called my attention it was too high 2.51
From october to February
188 case number interviewed
460 total visas
Now I went to ceac data
95 visas was issued
47 case numbers interviewed
So 460+95+45=600 visas in 6 month
And 235 case numbers interviewed of 800
So if 1500 visas for SA I think that we are good don’t you think?
March 26, 2018 at 22:25
That is pretty much what we would expect. There are >100 people on AP (most will get approved), and we don’t see all of March yet. So – the first half of the year will have produced about 700 visas. Normally we could expect the pace to be slightly faster. So – 700 issued from the first 800 CNs seems about in line with previous years. No surprises.
March 26, 2018 at 22:57
Hello Mr Simon,for the us address on ds260 i noted does not apply for Name of person currently living at address but i typed only the address,is this fine?or must i unlock my ds form 260 and add the person name who gave me the is address and who lives there ?
March 27, 2018 at 00:28
Am waiting your story yass am from moroco too
March 27, 2018 at 00:42
Morocco yes which story Mr Crazy people ?explain?
March 27, 2018 at 00:55
Maroc which story ?iam Egyptian
March 27, 2018 at 07:59
Hello every one,I emailed kcc for my interview date n I got an email after 2 days that my interview will be on 9th of may n that I will receive 2nl within 7 days.cn:af235xx
March 27, 2018 at 16:44
Tnx for u’r usefull information,
2325 visas issued for Asia in 5 months (including Feb.) according to latest visa statistics, from that 2325 almost half of them issued only for Nepal, and now Nepal has some limit in latest Visa Bulletins. i hope my AS93** will be current before Dv-2018 ends up.
March 28, 2018 at 08:45
Can I ask you a question about the CEAC data.
In the latest VB progress for EU there are 1200 real cases, but you guys all talk about only 600 cases that are interviews. Where in the data can you see these cases or is this just a fixed percentage you take out of the real cases because of historical data.
Thanks for you reply.
March 28, 2018 at 09:13
600 real cases is just a rough estimate assuming that about 50% wont response.
March 28, 2018 at 15:18
Hey Brit! I frankly don’t understand this statement from your post above : “that increase only made 1200 new cases current – nearly half of which will be non response cases.” Given that april and may made the same amount of people current, around 950 people responded and got 2nd NL in April and this includes around 140 “old cases”). What makes you think that in May it will be only around 600 responses?
March 28, 2018 at 15:42
The quoted statement is self explanatory. Where did I say there will only be 600 responses?
March 28, 2018 at 16:06
? well, if that is not what was meant, I misunderstood you. But you wrote ““that increase only made 1200 new cases current – nearly half of which will be non response cases.” So, that would be around 600/750 cases that respond, or not? I’m just surprised on how you think that nearly half of them will not respond, I dont get where that guess is coming from. Yea, lets wait for the full data to be published. Just reading through that post again made me stop and wonder at that point.
March 28, 2018 at 16:18
I said 1200 NEW cases & NEARLY half won’t respond. That doesn’t mean 600 – you are putting words in my mouth and asking me to explain the statement I didn’t make!
In the previous month ~1200 case numbers caused ~760 interviews in that range (plus interviews from backlog).
March 30, 2018 at 22:24
Sorry Brit, but these 1200 cases already INCLUDE old cases. So if you want to say from the new cases about 750 will respond, than that would be about 760 cases from about 1000 cases. That is not even close to one half. from 1200 total cases about 950 will respond. That is also not even close to “nearly half”.
March 30, 2018 at 22:47
Nonsense. Between 15950 and 18050 there are EXACTLY 1199 cases. That is “1200” *NEWLY CURRENT” cases. That’s clear isn’t it?? The number in the previous month was 1203. Why are you saying that INCLUDES old cases? Old cases would be cases that were already current (late submissions typically). The actual 2NLs were 743 from new and 197 from old. That is a response rate of 61.9% of new cases (which is how we determine response rate) – and yeah – that is exactly what I had in mind when I said “nearly half”!
March 28, 2018 at 15:53
After 2NLs go out we can see a fairly accurate number of people that got scheduled. That data is on Xarthisius’ site.
March 29, 2018 at 13:31
Hello Brit, yesterday I received my Visa. Thank you very much. Just one question, with my passport I received a letter with instructions and it says that it is advisable to fly directly, and below it says ‘you can have a flight with a stopover’. My question is whether it is possible to make a stopover or if it is necessary to fly directly. You know, direct flights are more expensive.
March 29, 2018 at 16:15
Book you flight however you like. The first airport in the USA will be your “Port of Entry” (POE) – that is where you process your LPR paperwork.
March 29, 2018 at 17:54
This is out of context question
I changed my jobs twice from last year as working contract job.Question is– Do I need to unlock the case.My case 23XXX Eu. Or one simple cv can solve any potential issues in interview?
March 29, 2018 at 18:51
No need to unlock for that, although doing so will not delay your process.
March 30, 2018 at 09:17
one more thing– I put 2 high school in ds 260. This is total of 11 years.But ,interview times I will be asked to give completion of school certificate which is my second school.So everyone says that putting 1 school through (1-11) is enough.cause interviewers could ask more question like showing supporting documents from 1st school.Do i need to unlock and put only 1 school that only providing certificate?
March 30, 2018 at 14:58
Document all secondary level education. If in doubt, more info is better.
March 30, 2018 at 13:26
Hi Simon! I noticed something interesting in terms of the VB numbers for May… If you look at the density charts for each region (especially the 3 big ones) you can see that the cutoff numbers for each of those regions are all at the end of a major density plateau. It matches almost perfectly. In fact if you draw a vertical line across the density charts across the five regions (starting in Africa’s 24,000) it matches all the other numbers (Eu 18,000), Asia (around 6000), OS and SA (1100). Could it be that they are trying to keep the progress steady across all regions? If that’s the case, since all the numbers are at the end of a plateau, there should be a noticeable increase in pacing across all regions in June. As you say, she shall wait and see… Once again, thanks for all the updates and useful information!!
March 30, 2018 at 14:50
THey try and split the work into the months available (with a little wiggle room). So – each month is roughly about 10% of the cases they expect for the year – so after say 7 months we would be about 70% in each region. Not case numbers. CASES. APPROXIMATELY.
March 30, 2018 at 16:28
I think like Hector. We will see a little jump in the last 2 month.
In SA only 30% of the cases had interview. I was checking pasta years and this year has more no show than other years, but has a bigger %% of derivatives and less refused.
My guess 18xx I hope so because I am 16xx ?
March 30, 2018 at 18:40
SA pace will stay about the same because the density stays about the same – there is no reason to expect “jumps”. So – pace around 150/160 per month over 4 months is the best we can expect (maybe 175 one month – then 125 the next and so on). So – 16XX is very possible, 18XX is very risky.
March 30, 2018 at 18:45
Do you still think about 1500 visas for SA? Because my math is based on that number
March 30, 2018 at 18:49
Yes, but quota and pace are different things – and whether we understand it or not, KCC have shown pace normally meets quota pretty well.
March 30, 2018 at 19:01
By the way – current numbers show 555 issued plus 109 on AP (which will mostly go to issued). March isn’t quite over – so we can assume at least 650 to 700 have come from the first 800 CNs. Don’t forget, the 1500 quota includes AOS cases (which our numbers do not). So – this supports final CN in the 16XX range, maybe 17XX. So – pace and quota are making sense with current progress – no reason to expect jumps.
April 3, 2018 at 16:09
What are they AOS CASE?
March 30, 2018 at 14:00
Hi Brit. Based on official website (travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics.html ) I did some statistics including DV 2017 and DV 2018 years.
DV 2017 Between October – February months case numbers between 0 -18 000
Number of received visas:
Europe 7 713
World 16 459
DV 2018 Between October – February months case numbers between 0 -10 700
Number of received visas:
Europe 7 836
World 16 797
Despite of DV 2018 year’s case numbers are going slowly than DV2017, but til now more visas issued than DV 2017 during the same period.
Dear Brit . Could it be a problem for us waiting interviews with case numbers above EU…30k
March 30, 2018 at 14:43
Because density is higher. NO surprise.
March 30, 2018 at 15:57
I am not sure to understand what you mean by density is higher?
March 30, 2018 at 17:02
Read this to understand “density”.
The point is – the VB number is affected by the number of actual cases.
March 30, 2018 at 15:45
Good day brit,I must start by appreciating the great job u are doing. I got some questions that I plz need clarification about.
Upon reviewing my form Ds 260 this noon I realized that on my form there is a missing hypynn(-). My names are Tar Esong-Ake jay but on the ds 260 it is found as Tar,EsongAke jay.the hypynn (-) is missing between the “Esong and Ake” so dear brit
1-does this pose an issue on my case during the interview and
2-if it does since my case number is a high AF numerous 46*** can I unlock it and effect changes
3- does the DS 260 form accepts hypynns (-).I can’t figure how I could make such a mistake so I am having some reservations as to maybe the form didn’t accept the hypynn (-)
Thanks brit in anticipation
March 30, 2018 at 16:58
2. The form will not accept the hyphen.
3. No – see 2.
March 30, 2018 at 19:07
Hi Brit , I want to ask you 2 questions:
1. What is the validity of the medical exam?
2. What is the validity of the police certificate (police records) ?
And thanks .
March 30, 2018 at 19:22
1. The visa will expire based on the medical date plus 6 months.
2. Police certs should be obtained shortly before the interview.
March 30, 2018 at 21:51
If you have no criminal history at all, and, therefore, there is nothing on your records, do you still have to get police records?
March 30, 2018 at 22:00
Yes, of course. You have to show the proof.
March 30, 2018 at 22:50
We are from Austria and live in the US since 2009. We have six kids (ages 20, 18, 14, 10, 6, 4). Our two youngest kids were born here in the US so we don’t need green cards for them. But, our four older kids are Austrian. Who needs police records? Do we need police records for both countries, the US and Austria?
Thanks for your help!
March 30, 2018 at 22:54
You really need to read the instructions. There are no police certs required for the USA. Your children may not need police certs if they have not lived anywhere else since 2009 – but reading the instructions would make that clear. The rules are different for CP versus AOS – so again – make sure you know what you are doing.
March 30, 2018 at 22:59
We are going back to Austria and go through CP. This is why I asked. We are not adjusting status.
March 30, 2018 at 23:02
So then you can refer to the dvselectee instructions as they are accurate to your circumstances.
March 31, 2018 at 15:38
Just wish to thank Xarthisius for the tremendous work on his site. Especially the latest update representing issued ,refused ,AP etc. That’s good for those who don’t have time to do the analysis. I know you’re also a Dv2018 winner, have you made it to the US yet ? Man , wish we could all make it and maybe share a beer with Brits. You guys are AWESOME !
April 1, 2018 at 22:16
Thanks! I’m already in US, but I haven’t got my GC yet. I’m waiting for my AOS to process.
April 1, 2018 at 19:59
the counselor asked me for more paper.. yet I could see on the paper in front of him “no” on the immigration officer opinion ! and he asked me to send the paper to the embassy with the passport! it is confusing , could it just no,and he wouldn’t confront me with the no??
April 1, 2018 at 20:31
I don’t know.
April 2, 2018 at 11:44
Hi mr brit. i jst realised dat my mums date of birth on her birth certificate is 23 december bt on my birth certificate it is 23 october. Wen filling the Ds 260 i wrote her correct date of birth which is 23 december….Will it hv any implication? Will it affect my chances of getting a visa?
April 2, 2018 at 14:27
April 3, 2018 at 13:42
The ratio of issued visas: total to Europe remains at the level of 2.1. If the trend does not change, then you can come to Europe with 22-23000 visas ….
What are you think about it?
April 3, 2018 at 13:56
The quota for EU is 18,300 (at 50,000 global issued).
April 5, 2018 at 08:47
Can the EU quota be highler than 18300? For expample, 2017 the quota for EU region is 20,516.
April 5, 2018 at 17:02
The quota varies year to year. In some circumstances they could exceed the 18300.
April 3, 2018 at 14:34
Oh I am so sorry. I had some problems with English grammar. The ratio of issued visas. If the trend does not change, then for Europe will be 22-23000 cases.
What are you think about it?
April 3, 2018 at 14:59
You are still unclear – but if that number is what you think the final cutoff will be – you are entirely incorrect.
April 3, 2018 at 21:09
The status is ready, I had my interview… the status still ready… but the “case last updated” date keep changing… what does it mean?
April 3, 2018 at 21:32
You cannot deduce the meaning of the updates.
April 6, 2018 at 12:32
But Who is doing this update? is it the embassy or someone in the States?
April 6, 2018 at 13:55
You can’t know that – and it doesn’t matter, does it.
April 6, 2018 at 19:26
well, it does if weekends and holidays are different from the states.. for example Egypt’s weekend is Friday and Saturday… Egypt is in holidays until Tuesday:)
Anyway, thx for answering.
April 6, 2018 at 21:32
But again – even if you know where the update was made – SO WHAT? It doesn’t help you because you have no idea what the update means.
April 4, 2018 at 00:54
Hi brit a quick question on my ds 260 form i put high school diploma and also i fill up the work experience part is that a problem or i just need to put one only
April 4, 2018 at 01:15
You should answer all questions – not try to decide what you think is important.
April 4, 2018 at 14:52
Hello Brit it is very kind of you answering for every creepy questions with out hesitation. And we are lucky enough to have you, my sister’s interview is on April 5 and her sponsor told her that his mailing address and residence is different but, she already filled the sponsor’s address as the mailing address in the ds 260. Does this cause refusal….? thank you for your time Brit.
April 4, 2018 at 16:14
That won’t cause refusal.
April 4, 2018 at 17:09
Thanks a ton Brit.
April 5, 2018 at 07:05
hi brit i submit my ds 260 in jun 2017 i filed my current adress in khartum and i filed my interview place in adiss abeba yet am not scheduled still am living in khartum so do i need to unlock my ds 260 i fiiled my interview place in adiss abeba ( ethiopia )
April 5, 2018 at 17:09
Make sure your address is accurate. If it isn’t unlock and correct it.
April 6, 2018 at 12:20
Maybe Simon could help me with this… Can u imagine that my son’s mom told me she has withdrawn her concernt of me taking our son to the US. That means she won’t sign any custody papers. The worst part of it is that I have already filed and submitted his ds260.Brit what can be done about this— any ideas plz
April 6, 2018 at 13:55
That means you probably won’t take your son.
April 6, 2018 at 13:54
Thank you. What are the pros and cons in your opinion?
April 6, 2018 at 14:03
I prefer crunch peanut butter, rather than smooth.
A question with no context tends to get odd answers.
April 6, 2018 at 15:02
I apologize, I answered on the wrong comment. It was regarding past comments below.
“Thank you Brit. If all case numbers become current in the coming months, do I have better chances to get received for an interview in France rather than in the US? or it does not make any change? Thanks, Eleonore”
“There are pros and cons each way. I honestly cannoty tell you which way to choose – it is your choice”
April 6, 2018 at 15:17
There is a comparison here:
April 6, 2018 at 15:39
Thank you! That is very helpful
April 7, 2018 at 06:04
hi brit dose kcc sent 2NL based on current adres or based on interview location i filed my current adres another and my interview location another
April 7, 2018 at 16:35
April 7, 2018 at 14:27
Dear. Simon from calculation about the issued visa from Egypt in 2018 till February is about 1350 visa and the number of visa for Egypt is about 3500
1- Are this mean that there are still 2150 for the coming months?
2- Are u thought that 3500 visa must be issued for Egypt all over the year?
3- May be not reach to the number of visa for Egypt 7%?
in addition that in 2017 the number of visa issued for egypt from march to september about 2200 and all the year about 3000
April 7, 2018 at 16:14
3500 is a MAX CAP. not a target. They will issue what they can issue, but no more than the cap.
April 8, 2018 at 12:49
With a bit of playing with CEAC status, there are some cases that are ready for long time… maybe from December, January and February. Just out of curiosity, how come that be possible? (they did not go for the interview for example?)
April 8, 2018 at 13:13
They didn’t show up for interview.
April 9, 2018 at 21:43
I did not submit the Ds 260 yet becouse I’m wating if I will be current or not.
Im too late? or my decision is right. Better to wiat than submit it since I will be doing AOS and I dont want to loose my F1 visa.
April 9, 2018 at 22:14
If you are doing AOS you can continue to delay your DS-260.
April 11, 2018 at 08:10
How long does it last as “Ready” after the interview? is there kind of time limit ? does it differ from country to another?
April 11, 2018 at 14:10
April 11, 2018 at 10:48
good day uncle Brit;
here is my question: does this, ” but it is more than reasonable to expect an increase in pace.”, mean that they will “likely” schedule more than the 2771 real cases in the following months?
April 11, 2018 at 14:06
As density drops, the VB numbers need to increase pace to yield the same number of real cases.
April 11, 2018 at 11:38
I was checking ceac data xarthisius’s great work recently,
I’ve noticed that some case numbers are showing as NVC even the numbers are already current,could you please tell me what’s the reason of that?For instance below what s the difference between of these two
April 11, 2018 at 14:02
8 is a hole there is no selectee). 9 is someone who has not submitted their DS260 (non response).
April 11, 2018 at 15:00
EUROPE JUNE 20300….
April 11, 2018 at 16:14
Brit I hear the VB June is out already, any idea???
April 11, 2018 at 16:16