May 2NL analysis

Introduction

OK – I have posted the latest CEAC data in this post that was extracted today. The 2NLs were sent out yesterday and this morning the CEAC data was updated with the “In Transit” cases. As I have previously explained, this status allows us to identify exactly which cases have been sent to the embassies for interview. The embassy then updates CEAC to the Ready status – hopefully within a few days.

So – this is helpful because we can see exactly how many interviews are being scheduled in the region, and that allows us to make a prediction of Visa Bulletin progression for next month (June interviews). The file also tells us about number of cases issued, refused, AP etc  and we can get the response rate so far.

So – I want to explain how I get to my predictions and you can then form your own opinions and believe whatever you want. But – at least you will know where I get the numbers…

Response rate (so far)

So – let’s take the response rate first of all. We know that not all the 125,000 selectees will want to continue with their case after selection. Cases that are current but still in the status of “at NVC” are either cases where the DS260 was submitted late and is not yet processed OR it is someone who has not submitted the DS260 at all because they have decided not to proceed. So – we can quantify the response rate BUT we have to realize it is the response rate so far – it is still increasing for all regions, at different rates.

So – to get the response rate so far I find the number of cases current for a region and check what cases are not in the “at NVC” status. That gives the following response rates.

AF – 43%

EU – 40%

AS – 63%

OC – 40%

SA – 45%

How many  interviews scheduled this month

This data is available in the file, but I have created a database to make sure I have accurate numbers in a case (like AF region) where the embassies are being lazy about claiming the In TRansit cases. So – from the database I have these interviews scheduled (with last month for comparison).

The drop in scheduled interviews scheduled for May in EU is a surprise but I did hear reports that at least 2 embassies (Bern and Frankfurt) were rescheduling interviews because of workload/capacity issues. I think that led to KCC reducing the interviews for this month.

Now – as a reminder these are CASES – so for each case there are additional family members. This means that April had more than 5200 selectees being interviewed and May more than 4500 (plus some pushed back from April). Those numbers are both slightly lower than I expected to achieve 5000 visas issued – but don’t forget each month sees some visas issued to cases that

close AP. That is is why the beginning of the year appears to start slow and the pace builds up in later months.

DS260 backlog

Each region is still getting some of the interviews from cases that were already current prior to the current visa bulletin – i.e. cases that were held up due to DS260 processing times. So – if we consider how many interviews come from cases newly current – we can understand how the backlog is affecting each region. So – the mix of where the interviews come from backlog looks like this:

AS you can see, AS region in particular is not too badly affected by the DS260 processing time. THat means most AS selectees returned their DS260 early. AF region is at the other end of the scale – a large percentage of the AF selectees must have submitted their DS260s late.

SA is a special case – they did not have a VB increase at all – so all their 50 interviews are from cases already current. It is possible that the political situation in Venezuela was the cause to not increase the VB at all – I would hope that normal progress is resumed next VB.

Predictions.

I tried to explain this last month – hopefully some understood it. KCC are working to a pace. They know how many interviews they need to meet their monthly target of about 10% of the total visas issued each month, and they also know the capacity of the embassies. They also know how many  cases are available that have responded and completed processing and they set the VB number for each region to get the number of cases they need.

So – above in this post we have all the data we need to make some educate guesses on the VB numbers for next bulletin. Let’s take an example to illustrate my thinking.

So – let’s say they want to interview 450 cases again for Asia – maybe 500 at most. We can assume that  about 75/80% of those will need new cases on the VB, and at least 65% will have completed DS260 processing. That should mean they need 350 to 400 cases to come from new VB numbers and we will assume 65% again – so that means we need to increase the VB by 540 to 615 cases. If we check the CEAC file for cases after 5275 we get to a range of 5848 to 5926. So – my prediction for AS is a little wider than that – say 58XX to 59XX. They might just push over the 6000 if Nepal embassy agrees to take on a few more interviews.

Using the same technique for Africa I assume they will want to get around 1600 cases interviewed again, and I believe most of those will come from cases already current (DS260s submitted in November and December – perhaps even some in early January). Response rate overall will increase so my prediction comes out at 34XXX to 35XXX. Egypt will probably add another 2000 or so and Ethiopia will get to 28XXX to 29XXX. I expect the Ethiopia limit to be removed by July.

For EU region the response rate looks much too low at this point. THe scheduling difficulties in Bern and Frankfurt are on my mind – but I have to believe they will want to perform at least 1000 interviews. So – EU is a bit harder to be accurate, but I will say the number will be around 32XXX to 33XXX.

OC will probably add another 100 or so (1150 to 1200).

SA is an unknown as it depends whether Caracas embassy can handle interviews or not. So – I won’t venture a prediction for SA.

So – to recap:-

AF – 34XXX – 35XXX

EU – 32XXX – 33XXX

AS – 58XX – 59XX

OC – 1150 – 1200

SA – surprise!

Maybe I’m right, maybe I’m not – let me know what you think….

May 2NL analysis