I wanted to take a few minutes to explain what we can see with the latest CEAC data. Big thanks to all that spent time scraping, it is very much appreciated. This article can be seen as an update to my previous article which is linked here.

First some high level numbers. If you check Xarthisius’ site you will see that we only have a bit over 17000 visas issued. There are 5 remaining months of interviews and it is quite surprising that we only see 17k visas issued to this point. That is low. To put that in perspective there were 26k visas issued at this point last year. Now – it is clear that this year will be a low issue year, but even so, the slow pace is a concern. The new document procedure created a delay and it means KCC will be very busy in the final months of the program. That is not ideal. In a normal year the final month or two should be used in clearing AP cases. So, even with lower interview numbers we see high visas issued – especially in AF region.

I think it is reasonable to assume that this year could see “current” in most or all of the regions. There is a chance we will see regions current as early as the next VB – or at least let me say I would not be shocked if that happened. I am basing that on the low number of visas issued. We might on the other hand see KCC holding back the VB pace for a while to try and clear more of the backlog with the cases already current, because the unleashing the VB to current can create a bit of an unfair situation where high case numbers get their cases scheduled (because they proactively submitted documents and were scheduled) while other cases wait or even miss out because they don’t understand the importance of the document procedure. As I have been explaining for a couple of months now though, the VB number is not my main concern. I am more concerned at how much work is being left to the last months. So – let me review EU and AF region.

So – we need to look at 2NLs that were sent this month. In total there were about 3700 2NLs sent out this month – a large increase over recent months (which have been about 2700). AF region in particular has seen a BIG increase in cases scheduled – nearly double the number of interviews of last month. That shows the “demand” there is for interviews.

So what does that mean – well it means that the backlog problem continues and there are still many cases that either just went current last month, or were current before that will take the majority of interviews again next month.

This is further explanation of why we are still seeing a lot of people that haven’t heard from KCC to submit their documents, or are not being scheduled even when they have submitted the documents.

So what does that mean – well it means that the backlog problem continues and there are still many cases that either just went current last month, or were current before that will take the majority of interviews again next month.

This is further explanation of why we are still seeing a lot of people that haven’t heard from KCC to submit their documents, or are not being scheduled even when they have submitted the documents.

EU region.

For June, there are 954 EU cases that received 2NLs (surprisingly a little less than last month). Of those 954 scheduled cases, 781 (82%) were current BEFORE the last VB, meaning they are “backlog” cases. So there were 173 cases that were newly current from this month. Between 21900 and 26800 there are 1718 real cases so we know that at least half of those would want an interview. So there are hundreds of cases that went current this month that won’t be scheduled until July or later.

AF region

For June, there are 2068 AF cases that received 2NLs . Egypt messes up these numbers a little because they have the “except” range applied, but I will ignore that for these numbers. Of those 2068 scheduled cases, 1083 (52%) were current BEFORE the last VB, meaning they are “backlog” cases. So there were 985 cases scheduled that were newly current from this month. Between 24500 and 37200 there are 5384 real cases and we can assume that at least half of those would want an interview. So there are hundreds, probably over 1000, of cases that went current this month that won’t be scheduled until July or later. That is in addition to backlog from earlier months.

Summary

The other regions are less of a problem/volume, so there is no need to discuss those regions in detail.

It should be clear though, that KCC are going to have a tough job in organizing the remaining work, and the volume of work is not based on one region so the “chaos” factor will affect all regions. KCC are yet to ask many cases to submit their documents. There are bound to be delays while that goes on, so I would repeat what I have been saying for a while now to my readers. Get your documents sent to KCC. If you have sent the documents some time ago, and you are current but not scheduled, it is worth contacting KCC to make sure they are satisfied with your documents. If you want to know how to send documents, please read this linked article.

Lastly, DV2020 results will be posted within a few days. There will be people coming here with DV2019 cases and DV2020 cases. Please remember to quote the year and region with your case number. Thanks!