I have created two videos explaining my thoughts on EU and AS regions for DV2021 winners.
Africa is much more complex due to the numerous limited countries. Therefore I cannot produce such a clear explanation for AF region. We will need to wait until we have more information.
Oceania and South America are very simple, so I think the concepts are clear for those regions.
December 13, 2020 at 21:16
Hi Brit,
I was curious if you happen to have heard of new, higher EU case numbers, since you did the video? Or is the highest you heard about still around EU40k?
Thanks and have a good day
December 14, 2020 at 00:31
No further updates.
September 4, 2020 at 13:29
Hi BritSimon.
Thank you for your continuous efforts and all your videos, you are so helpful!
My case is 2021EU32XXX, I am currently living in the US with a valid VISA until March 2021 so I would be able to choose between CP or AOS (imagining that my number would be current before March which I highly doubt based on your videos). I have read the forum you mentioned a few comments above but I still have one question related to that:
1- If CP is affected by the immigrant ban until Dec 31st, I imagine that a very few EU cases will be processed in 2020 but can we predict how is it going to affect the number at the visa bulletin? Should we expect a very small variation due to the ban or would we see a huge increment on the number in the first 2-3 months that would be followed by a very small increment when CP starts again so lower EU numbers can proceed again?
Thank you so much!
September 4, 2020 at 19:06
We can’t predict at this point – wait and see. However, it is, as you say, unlikely that you would be current before March.
September 3, 2020 at 04:58
Hi Amir,
according to their website only emergency appointments.
Ingo
September 2, 2020 at 23:45
@Ingo
Hey,
Do you know if the Frankfurt Consulate is reopened and issuing normal visas?
Regards,
Amir
September 1, 2020 at 18:31
Hi,
i was told that from October 1st, in Germany the Medical Exam can only be done by the Doctor in Frankfurt.
The Consulate optimises due to Corona and and lower demand.
Ingo
September 1, 2020 at 11:15
Hello Brit, I know we are tired of various questions, I apologize. There are only 311 winners in Kosovo, I am with CN EU 11 thousand, what are the probabilities given the circumstantial situations. Thank you god bless you
September 1, 2020 at 19:20
Please use a little common sense.
August 31, 2020 at 22:05
Hello Brit,
I am case number EU24XXX. I am currently studying in the USA, my program ends in may 2022.
Taking into account the global situation, if my number becomes current, would it make more sense to me to go through consular process or change of status?
The immigration ban affects the change of status process the same way it affects the cp?
Thanks for your blog and the videos, your work is amazing.
August 31, 2020 at 23:18
AOS has more protections than CP – for instance the current immigrant ban applies to CP, not AOS.
You can get a good overview of AOS compared to CP at the link below:
https://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2021-aos-only.342993/
August 31, 2020 at 13:15
Hi Brit
My husband is french and
We have CN EU8XXX. We submitted our DS260 5 weeks ago. How long should we wait for a response before giving up hope?
August 31, 2020 at 20:19
Year????
September 1, 2020 at 07:08
DV 2021. I am indian. He is the primary applicant
September 1, 2020 at 19:14
OK – well sometimes it takes longer to process forms. When you sent your forms there might have been a backlog. You aren’t losing anything by the delay. So – be patient.
August 30, 2020 at 21:34
B..am wondering about fiscal year 2020.do you think there will be interview for the people of 2020?thank you
August 30, 2020 at 22:32
depends on the court case decision.
August 30, 2020 at 07:55
Hi Brit,
I have the unlucky case number 2021eu0039xxx and I’m Italian. I’m in the risky zone considering your analysis. It was a very bad news to know that it seems the maximum case number for EU is 40000 around.
Can you explain me how it’s possibile that with 43000 selectees we have only 40.000 case numbers? Should not The case number be higher than selectees number considering that this include derivates etc? For the other countries this “rule” is respected.
In past months I remember different people from Europe said to have case numbers around 55xxx.
Can I hope probably they have not replied to your survey? I really hope it 🙁
Thanks for your great help
Ale
August 30, 2020 at 14:13
There is no such rule in other countries as you think there is. Let me give an example of how cases could be – case number – then family size.
Case number 1 – Family 5 (principal, spouse, three kids)
Case number 2 – Hole
Case number 3 – Family 2 (principal + spouse)
Case number 4 – Single principal
OK – so that is 8 people and 4 case numbers. Understand?
Yes there is a chance that people with slightly higher case numbers have not responded to my survey and the other surveys that I know of – but there is no reason why they are all colluding to stay quiet about their high case numbers that I can think of, so its not likely to be much higher than I have stated.
August 30, 2020 at 15:59
I’m Italian too! CN EU33XXX, let’s hope for the best!
August 30, 2020 at 17:35
Ciao Daniele,
We have only to wait crossing all the fingers.
If you want to make me a gift don’t proceed, so I have more opportunities… ahahah. I’m joking obviously!
Thanks brit for your great work
August 31, 2020 at 08:25
Hey guys, I’m Italian too! EU13xxx.Let’s keep in touch. You can find me with the same surname (piertoUS) on the immigrationDOTcom forum that Simon usually links.
August 31, 2020 at 20:23
Lucky number Pietro! You’re almost there! ??
August 29, 2020 at 10:10
Thank you Simon for the detailed analysis on EU. I applied the same logic you used on my case number which is 27XXX and mathematically I am safe by having 16,920 people in front of me. I completely understand this isn’t 100% accurate, so assuming there is an error of +/- 10%, I am still under the <19-20k quota for the EU region. Like you said, the only issues we are going to face are the pandemic and politics – hopefully 11 months are enough to interview 19k something people and it's not going to be another 'slow walking' year.
For those who are not watching the video – the risk zone starts at CN 30XXX and above.
August 29, 2020 at 16:30
I am in the same range in EU. I hope you are right. I think there will be still a lot of factors playing. Let’s hope for the best
August 29, 2020 at 16:42
Well you may have misunderstood. Did you calculate you have 16920 CASES in front of you? Each case will have about 2 people. ON the other hand you may have applied a response rate and denial rate, but those rates are not certain yet.
Also – be careful about telling everyone that the safe number range is below 30k. If I were that certain of that, I would say so…
August 29, 2020 at 06:45
For OC, what was the highest case number you saw last year (2020)?
I am wondering if we will see roughly the same holes rate as for 2021 we have almost double the amount of applicants.
August 29, 2020 at 14:17
No need to wonder. The holes rate for OC in DV2021 is 45%.
August 29, 2020 at 16:32
I’ll publish a video very shortly.