So now people have read my post on backlog – and there seems to be more misunderstanding going on. Some people are lamenting and complaining about people that submitted late and some people saying things are so slow. I obviously need to explain a little more.

KCC want to spread their workload (processing of forms) out over a period on months. They start in May and they know that the next May they will get the next batch in for the next lottery.  I don’t know the precise numbers but let’s say they have 20 people working on processing forms all year round. They could hire 80 more people and process much faster – but then 100 people would have nothing to do for most of the year. That makes no sense. So – they have a sensible number of staff but they have a limited capacity to get work done. That means it takes longer to process the DS260s they receive at the beginning – and they catch up in time just around the time the next years forms come in May.

The same management works for the embassies. They want to spread the workload over the year.

However, let us imagine for a moment that there was NO processing to do – and that every winner had submitted their forms in May (well those that wanted to – which is about 61% of all AF region selectees – explained as response rate).

So – in that case – what would the VB progress look like for AF region (to explain the point I am using AF region – but the point is the same across all regions).

We know the 2015 success rate for AF was about 62.5% of people that responded. The remaining 37.5% either got refused, could not complete AP, or simply did not show up for their interview.

Let us assume they will give out 20000 to 22000 visas to AF region this year. Since I explained they want to spread that over the whole year – that is about 1700 to 1800 per month on average. At the success rate we know from last year – that is about 2800 people interviewing per month. Since each case is about 1.9 to 2 people at the moment (derivative rate)  we could say they need about 1400 to 1500 interviews scheduled each month. With me so far??

OK – so how should the VB progression be to yield 1500 interviews per month.

The density in AF region is about 800 cases per thousand up to case number 14000, then 600 cases per thousand up to about case number 30000, and about 400 cases per thousand after that. We know only 61% will respond so we have three levels of  density/response rates at about 500/370/250 per thousand.

That means they have to raise the numbers each month by 3000 up to CN14000, then by about 4000 each month and finally at a pace of around 6000 per month after CN30000. This is all based on the facts and explanations I have linked above.


OK – so knowing that – here is how the VB would have looked to yield the 1400/1500 interviews per month they needed – and I’ll stop at 50000 based on last year.

October – 3000

November – 6000

December – 9000

January – 12000

February – 15500

March – 19500

April – 23500

May – 27500

June – 32000

July – 38000

August – 44000

September – 50000


So – as I have tried to explain before the backlog caused a fast start and a slow down later. In the end we will finish at the same point. But surely people can see that it is not worth worrying about the slow down – when in fact we are right about where we should be at this point anyway!


I REALLY hope that calms people down… RELAX !