As I announced in a post a few days ago a number of additional selectees have been selected for DV2017. The additional draw is not really a “draw” as such, it is simply a revealing of additional winners in each region. For anyone interested in understanding what that means – you can read this prost that describes the draw process, why there are holes in the number ranges and so on.
Now, I have seen 2nd draw winners from each region. However, I don’t have a strong handle on the number ranges of 1st draw and 2nd draw winners. It would be useful to gather that data to estimate how many additional cases were added in the second draw. The 2nd draw numbers will have been the next numbers in the regions (or countries in limited countries – see not below). So – if we know the highest numbers in the first draw for each region, and then we know the highest numbers for 2nd draw selectees, we will have a better idea of how many additional cases were announced.
So – take a look at my table below. I would like to find the following for each region:
- The highest number from the first draw (or the lowest from the second draw).
- The highest number for the second draw.
Please reply to this post if your case number is in the interesting range. Provide the approximate number, 1st draw/second draw, and country. Country is important because I some countries were “limited” in the first draw (which is normal), and I know some additional numbers were released for those countries. Those numbers will be lower than the highest numbers for the region. For instance, I know some Egypt cases were released in the second draw at around 40000, which is lower than the regional number for the first draw. Ghana is the same – their second draw starting around 15000. That’s OK, but still I would be interested in the data.
As I get the data I will be able to fill out the estimated numbers for 2nd draw cases/selectees based on my understanding of the “hole” rate for each region.
[table id=1 /]
OK – so just to explain the method behind the estimation using EU region as an example. I estimate they increased the numbers by about 7000 case numbers (your responses will help confirm that). I was previously able to extract the CEAC data which showed me every case within each a region. So – I know that EU had around 414 cases per 1000 case numbers at the higher number ranges. So – 414 cases per 1000 multiplied by 7000 means there are about 2900 new cases in the 2nd draw (more if the two limited countries, Uzbekistan and Ukraine, got additional selectees). At the EU average derivative rate of 1.8 that would mean there are 5200 extra selectees in addition to the 28500 announced in May. Again, based on previous years, and in particular the last two years, I am NOT worried about the EU 2nd draw entries. DV2016 only had 27000 selectees for EU, and because of that very low number, EU had a lot of “unused” visa slots that were used to support the oversubscribed AF and AS regions, helping those regions get “current”.
Note: I included Nepal in the table above because it is the only country that has a realistic chance of hitting the country limit (7% of available visas). Additionally it was the only limit in place at the end of DV2016 (at 7100), so it is likely to be limited again – especially given the increased number of selectees in Nepal compared to DV2016. I was a little surprised that they informed more selectees for Nepal. The selectee count was already higher than the selectees for last year (4000 versus 3801) and the highest case numbers were higher than the final cutoff last year. So – it is going to be a long nervous wait for Nepalese cases with high numbers. PLEASE NOTE – I cannot be precise about where the final cutoff will fall this year. No one in the world can possibly predict that with any accuracy. So – all I can say is this, Nepal cases under about 6800 perhaps even 7000 are pretty comfortable. Above 7000 there is some risk. Other than saying that – “wait and see” is about all I can say.
Possibility that AF 1st draw ended at around 41XXX
September 26, 2016 at 08:46
I have already submitted DS-260 form on Sep 16, 2017. So I have no idea when I will be notify for interview (if it happens).
1. My question is if you have information about affidavit support, how long will it take my sponsor to fill and send me the form and supportive document??
2. should I tell my sponsor to prepare it now or I should wait until I’m notified my scheduled for interview?
October 2, 2016 at 03:45
Hello! I am from Nepal and I have been selected in 2nd draw but my case no is high(81**). Is there a chance of getting 2NL as I have been selected in 2nd draw?
October 2, 2016 at 04:09
Wait and see.
December 7, 2016 at 08:03
Hiii BritSimon I was selected in 2016 DV lottery but didn’t get to Embassy in ceases of some problem now I apply again for 2018 dv lottery can I get the chance to be selected again?
or the 2018 DV lottery going to be cancelled after Trump come to President? thank u waiting ur answer
December 7, 2016 at 15:14
You can try again. DV 2018 won’t be cancelled.
September 26, 2016 at 10:02
Hello Brit I am from nepal and I was selected in second draw.. but what makes me confused is as the second draw result was published in September but date information on my 1nl shows may 3, 2016..and as I came to know about me being selected via email… Does it mean that I was actually selected in first draw. But I have already check my status on may but at that time I was not selected … What do you say about this Brit…thanx
September 26, 2016 at 13:50
All cases are ranked in the 1 draw. The second draw is a “revealing” of more winners according to their rank number.
September 30, 2016 at 06:53
WHAT IS UR CASE NO ?? COULD U PLZ TELL ME?
September 30, 2016 at 13:21
Aakash – would you please relax and understand what I have explained already.
AGAIN Nepal first draw selectees were up to around 7600. Then the second draw started from the next highest numbers (wherever the 1st draw ended) up to around 8500.
REGARDLESS of first draw/second raw, processing is by the numbers so a lower case number is better.
September 26, 2016 at 10:13
And Brit was there any second draw in 2015 and 2016…does it happens every year
September 26, 2016 at 13:49
No it does not happen every year.
September 26, 2016 at 23:31
I got elected in the second draw of DV 2017, and I want to submit my Dn-260 tomorrow. My case number is EU24xxx.
I am worried that I won’t get an interview and that all visas will be gone due to my late submission of dn-260 in late September.
How likely is that ?
Thanks in advance and have a nice day sir
September 27, 2016 at 00:09
First, no need to rush with the DS260. Your case cannot be interviewed until the case number is current anyway.
Now, as you can see in the table above you are at the low end of the second draw, so you stand a very good chance. So…. relax, wait and see.
September 28, 2016 at 10:59
Sorry, I forgot to mention my Country, I am from Germany.
September 28, 2016 at 13:11
You mentioned your region – that was enough.
September 27, 2016 at 04:11
Hello Sir (Namaste )
: Im from Nepla i have To Ask Something You
1)high caseNumber of nepal ?
2) how Many people are select of 2nd draw of nepla
3)Ds-260 fill up mistake Any problem for get secound latter
Somebody says will you current for your interview is it right plz
#Waiting Your reply
:Thanks For Your time
September 27, 2016 at 14:47
1. I am not certain, but probably around 8600
2. Probably around 500
3. You get the interview if your number is current. But you should correct mistakes on the DS260.
September 27, 2016 at 08:28
hello simon did find out highest case number from second draw from nepal and Asia??
September 27, 2016 at 14:40
No. But why are you asking – your number is lower.
September 27, 2016 at 14:50
I’m a 2nd draw selectee with case number EU28XXX. I’m planning to get married before filing DS260, but the marriage is unlikely to happen earlier than November or even December, and it will probably be superseded by additional delay due to family name change of my spouse.
How do you think, should I worry about this delay? Is it better in terms of processing to file the form for me now and unlock it after we marry, or, in case we file it initially in December or January, is there going to be enough time for it to be processed by the time my CN becomes current?
September 27, 2016 at 17:00
It is not a problem to submit in December/January. People have submitted far later than that and been OK.
September 27, 2016 at 16:06
HLO SIR I M EDV WINNER OF 2017 FROM NEPAL BUT MY CASE NO. IS 7516 IS THERE ANY CHANCE TO GET 2NL
September 27, 2016 at 16:51
Read the article above.
September 28, 2016 at 05:00
what are the effects of second draw over the first draw..could u plz tell it ?? in context of nepal??
September 28, 2016 at 05:50
What do you mean?
September 30, 2016 at 02:44
i mean that can the people selected in 2nd draw FROM Nepal have got a low case no.?? or they will get a 2nl or not??
September 30, 2016 at 04:42
The numbers from the first draw are lower than the numbers from the 2nd draw.
September 27, 2016 at 16:28
Hi birtsimon…………. I have been selected edv winner 2017..i m from Nepal my Cn 69##….how many chances to get 2nd letter??????
September 27, 2016 at 16:50
That is covered in the article above.
September 28, 2016 at 10:51
My attorney submited the ds 260 form for me today and after submiting I checked that he had made a mistake on my child’s birthdate. Hist birthdate is on 22 and he had wrote 21 in my child list and my wife’ child list too.
This child is not qualified for dv because he is 24 years old but anyway he will join us later.
wht ca I do now to correct that mistake?
September 28, 2016 at 12:59
You can email KCC to unlock the form and correct it.
September 28, 2016 at 17:52
I’ve case number of 7300 from Nepal. Selected in First Draw.
Should I apply for DV Lottery 2018?
I’m thinking of applying for Student Visa in late August 2016? How the DV lottery might affect student visa chances if I’m not called for interview?
September 28, 2016 at 22:34
You can apply for DV2018.
The student visa might be refused as you have declared your intention to emigrate.
September 29, 2016 at 17:34
Good day Mr. Simon:
According to information that has been obtained the last days, do you belive that my case SA16XX 2nd draw could be called to interview?
September 29, 2016 at 17:41
I don’t have enough data to be able to predict that at the moment. Wait and see…
September 29, 2016 at 19:02
hi Mr simon I oredy sabmitted my ds260 on 27/09/2016 but i wrote my company name Sabastiao the correct name is Sebastião plse how can i correct the name of my company am working.
September 29, 2016 at 20:33
There is no need to correct that – it is not critical. If you want to correct it though, you can request KCC to unlock your form. Use the search above for unlocking steps.
September 29, 2016 at 19:29
Hi Brit, will be available visas for Europe, my case is around 30000?
September 29, 2016 at 20:30
As I explain above I think the current selectee count is around 33500 (28500 from the first draw, 5000 ish from the second draw). You are toward the end of that “line”. The quota for EU is around 18500 to 20000 visas. However, many of the 33500 selectees will not respond, some will be refused and so on. So – you have a chance. You will have to wait and see…
September 29, 2016 at 19:46
my case number is 42000 from Ethiopia from the second draw is there any chance to get the 2NL .Thanks
September 29, 2016 at 20:09
how many selects are there from Ethiopia
September 30, 2016 at 14:30
Excuse Mr. Simos:
How much is the regular average share of visas allocated annually to south america?
September 30, 2016 at 16:48
2.75% of the total visas in DV2017, 3% in DV2018 (increased due to Ecuador).
They allocate between 50,000 and 55,000 visas annually, so SA should get around 1375 to 1500 visas.
September 30, 2016 at 17:00
Thanks Mr. Simón.
September 30, 2016 at 20:48
1. is it possible to guess how many visa from 2017 are allocated for Iraq?
2. I have unlocked my form which confirmation page do I have to present in the interview previous one or the most recent (after submitting the unlock)?
September 30, 2016 at 21:58
1. No country has ANY visas “allocated” to it. However, Iraq selectees will probably get around 2000 to 2500 visas.
2. Either one is fine.
October 2, 2016 at 23:32
From the published statistics, there are only 274 selectees from Libya for the DV2017. Similar to you’ve did for Iraq, can you please guess how many visas they might give to Libyans?
October 3, 2016 at 03:44
Some percentage of the 274 won’t respond, some will be refused, some will get married or have children. So – around 200 or so…
October 1, 2016 at 03:00
Hi brit, base on your chart AF00037721 is what…thirty seven thousand…where do I stand?
October 1, 2016 at 04:37
October 1, 2016 at 08:10
Enter your comment here… Hi Brit, will be available visas for Ethiopia, my case is around 24000?
October 1, 2016 at 17:01
That number is fine.
October 4, 2016 at 15:06
iam from the second draw selectees in Africa (Egypt) and my case num is 35XXX ?
October 4, 2016 at 16:13
Yes, that makes sense – because Egypt was “limited” in the first draw, so Egyptian cases were lower than most cases in Africa. A similar thing happens in other countries too (Ghana, Ethiopia, etc)
October 4, 2016 at 21:40
iam from egypt my case number around 425xx so i think i have low chance as iam from high case number for 2nd draw
October 8, 2016 at 16:56
This is same as my case.. I am from egypt and my case number AF 42xxx , i hope we can catch it .. Send me ur e-mail to be added to group of egyptian winners for updates.
October 15, 2016 at 09:16
I’m from Egypt 40xxx as well please add me to the support group [email protected]
October 21, 2016 at 13:20
Sorry it’s [email protected].
October 8, 2016 at 03:29
October 8, 2016 at 10:22
I am one of the 2nd draw winner from Iran with case number 75** . How many chance for interview?
October 8, 2016 at 18:25
Good, but wait and see.
October 9, 2016 at 01:13
Hi my brother is a 2016 dv winner and he made his initial trip to USA on september 17th 2016. Now it is almost 3 weeks he has landed there living in washington state he has not got his ssn yet. He is in diffuculty neither he ciuld apply fod jobs nor cjain insurance. What is he suppose to do?
October 9, 2016 at 05:11
He should go to the SSA office and check on his SSN.
October 12, 2016 at 12:05
When shall we expect the publication of VB for December?
October 12, 2016 at 18:12
October 12, 2016 at 15:18
Why Iranian case number has been seperated in November VB?Is there any limitation for Iranian?and if there is how many of Iranian selectees could get the VISA.
October 12, 2016 at 18:08
It is purely a matter of regulating the volume of interviews. It does not indicate an end of the visas for Iran.
October 14, 2016 at 19:11
We, the Nepalese, are a strong fandom of yours. Could you possibly answer this? I’d like to feel more relaxed.
I am from Nepal and my CN is 25##. Only a few days ago, the United States Department of State (DoS) published the Visa Bulletin for November 2016.
1) When is my CN going to be current?
2) How long after my CN turning current on the website of DoS will I get an official e-mail to further process my application?
October 15, 2016 at 05:16
1. I don’t know when.
2. About 1 to 2 weeks after the visa bulletin.
October 15, 2016 at 12:32
I need to check DV lottery country wise which link should I use. Especially for Africa country,Tanzania
October 15, 2016 at 14:21
You mean the Visa bulletin? Check Africa region.
October 18, 2016 at 23:39
i have question brit
iam wandering why they did second draw despite of visa bullitin cut off may happen especially as nepal last year cut off and total selectees was less than this year first draw but they did 2nd draw for nepal ? what is your explanation and also for all country where they did 2nd draw as egypt ,ghana as well
October 19, 2016 at 00:01
I don’t know all the answers about their strategy. We just have to wait and see what happens.
October 19, 2016 at 14:53
hello I’m from of the Congo (brazzaville), my number is AF39 *** (1t draw) I had sent the DV-260 June 8, 2016.. I want to know if I have the chance to spend my interview
October 19, 2016 at 15:26
October 19, 2016 at 15:37
hello, I’m from in Congo living in Poland. I have a problem which worries me a lot. I play 2 times the lottery with my wife (unmarried) without winning. the 3rd time when we played (17 October 2015), we Write marry because our documents were already in the town hall. but after one month when we sign the papers and received the marriage certificate, the written Date was 25 November 2016 (date of receipt of the document) … I want to know if that date will cause me problem.
October 19, 2016 at 17:19
No problem. Although your date is wrong.
October 19, 2016 at 18:07
(it’s 25 November 2015)
thank very much
October 21, 2016 at 13:03
Hello. I need help here. I just found out I was selected in second call for DV-2017. Number case SA–xxxx10xx I am filling the DS-260 but I am not sure if I still have chance to be called for an interview if I sent the forms today. Thank you. Best regards
October 21, 2016 at 14:02
There is plenty of time. In fact you will have to wait for months anyway because of your case number.
October 22, 2016 at 11:06
Hi Brit, my worry is that up to now,my case is not current. I submitted ds 260 late june. From the visa billetin, my case should be current for December interviews. Is there anyone you ve read from that is current for December. Wrote kcc and they said they are still processing my form. Thanks
October 22, 2016 at 14:59
October 26, 2016 at 04:42
BritSimon: I read this article but still do not understand how I got the 2017EU000235XX in 2nd draw mid September?
October 26, 2016 at 04:55
You are at the low end of the 2nd draw. It’s that simple.
November 3, 2016 at 06:50
1st draw for EU is 28500 how come 235XX be 2nd draw??
November 1, 2016 at 06:37
Hello, am from Ethiopia with case number 2017AF385XX, i got selected from the second draw, from your experience do you think i have a chance for an interview? if so probably when?
November 1, 2016 at 18:15
I don’t know. Wait and see.
November 9, 2016 at 11:46
#American__President =Donald tromp
#Any problem for Dv lottery in nepal ?
November 9, 2016 at 14:20
Read this note here:
November 21, 2016 at 16:12
hi britsimon i am from ethiopia and I had sent the 1st draw DV-260 June 2016 .. but i didn’t get answer for the 2nd draw if i win or not ,it is to late why i check my email every day my case number is 2017AF00003XXX
November 21, 2016 at 23:21
You seem confused. We you selected? Do you have a case number? If so, the 2nd draw has nothing to do with your case. Your case will be processed once your DS260 is processed. So – did you submit the Ds260 – if so – when?
December 1, 2016 at 09:36
I’m from RDCongo I didn’t submit ds260 later November my case n is 41xxx how long may I gonna wait to get 2NL email?
December 1, 2016 at 18:03
Several months – I can’t be precise. Read the link below for info.
December 1, 2016 at 19:42
February 17, 2017 at 10:12
If there Is too late of submitting the 2nd letter for those ban countries candidates,Does it benefit other countries candidates.
February 17, 2017 at 14:18
March 24, 2017 at 04:31
Hello britsimon last march 20 i have an interview in us embassy of nepal and my +2 certificate are original but counsoler put my original certificate of +2 and bachelor degree too and return passport… and said we will investigate your certificate we feel different than others so we will call u in one two days… and in ceac check it is in administrative process …. thera is any risk whether i will get visa or not incase my certificate is original..plz reply
March 24, 2017 at 05:19
June 5, 2017 at 15:03
i am from nepal and i was wondering like what would be the exact time to fill up the ds260 from for second letter and what is the possibility of getting second letter my case no. is 47XX plz inform me with due respects.
Thanks in advance
June 5, 2017 at 18:36
Always quote the year and region with your case number and make it somewhat secret. Like 2018AS47XX
You can complete the DS260 now – your interview will be nearly a year from now.
August 22, 2017 at 07:10
Hello sir i ve read the vb of September and found that nepal got 750 how can we know the case number of nepal as in edv we have case number from overall asia.
August 22, 2017 at 13:27
Nepal is assigned Asia numbers. So – for a Nepalese person – they are only current if UNDER AS750
September 11, 2017 at 10:08
Can you tell me if there will be a second draw of the lottery 2018 in September or in the months to come
September 11, 2017 at 14:03
THere are already too many selectees – they don’t need to add more.
September 11, 2017 at 14:15
Ok thanks for your answer!