As I announced in a post a few days ago a number of additional selectees have been selected for DV2017. The additional draw is not really a “draw” as such, it is simply a revealing of additional winners in each region. For anyone interested in understanding what that means – you can read this prost that describes the draw process, why there are holes in the number ranges and so on.
Now, I have seen 2nd draw winners from each region. However, I don’t have a strong handle on the number ranges of 1st draw and 2nd draw winners. It would be useful to gather that data to estimate how many additional cases were added in the second draw. The 2nd draw numbers will have been the next numbers in the regions (or countries in limited countries – see not below). So – if we know the highest numbers in the first draw for each region, and then we know the highest numbers for 2nd draw selectees, we will have a better idea of how many additional cases were announced.
So – take a look at my table below. I would like to find the following for each region:
- The highest number from the first draw (or the lowest from the second draw).
- The highest number for the second draw.
Please reply to this post if your case number is in the interesting range. Provide the approximate number, 1st draw/second draw, and country. Country is important because I some countries were “limited” in the first draw (which is normal), and I know some additional numbers were released for those countries. Those numbers will be lower than the highest numbers for the region. For instance, I know some Egypt cases were released in the second draw at around 40000, which is lower than the regional number for the first draw. Ghana is the same – their second draw starting around 15000. That’s OK, but still I would be interested in the data.
As I get the data I will be able to fill out the estimated numbers for 2nd draw cases/selectees based on my understanding of the “hole” rate for each region.
[table id=1 /]
OK – so just to explain the method behind the estimation using EU region as an example. I estimate they increased the numbers by about 7000 case numbers (your responses will help confirm that). I was previously able to extract the CEAC data which showed me every case within each a region. So – I know that EU had around 414 cases per 1000 case numbers at the higher number ranges. So – 414 cases per 1000 multiplied by 7000 means there are about 2900 new cases in the 2nd draw (more if the two limited countries, Uzbekistan and Ukraine, got additional selectees). At the EU average derivative rate of 1.8 that would mean there are 5200 extra selectees in addition to the 28500 announced in May. Again, based on previous years, and in particular the last two years, I am NOT worried about the EU 2nd draw entries. DV2016 only had 27000 selectees for EU, and because of that very low number, EU had a lot of “unused” visa slots that were used to support the oversubscribed AF and AS regions, helping those regions get “current”.
Note: I included Nepal in the table above because it is the only country that has a realistic chance of hitting the country limit (7% of available visas). Additionally it was the only limit in place at the end of DV2016 (at 7100), so it is likely to be limited again – especially given the increased number of selectees in Nepal compared to DV2016. I was a little surprised that they informed more selectees for Nepal. The selectee count was already higher than the selectees for last year (4000 versus 3801) and the highest case numbers were higher than the final cutoff last year. So – it is going to be a long nervous wait for Nepalese cases with high numbers. PLEASE NOTE – I cannot be precise about where the final cutoff will fall this year. No one in the world can possibly predict that with any accuracy. So – all I can say is this, Nepal cases under about 6800 perhaps even 7000 are pretty comfortable. Above 7000 there is some risk. Other than saying that – “wait and see” is about all I can say.
Possibility that AF 1st draw ended at around 41XXX