As I announced in a post a few days ago a number of additional selectees have been selected for DV2017. The additional draw is not really a “draw” as such, it is simply a revealing of additional winners in each region. For anyone interested in understanding what that means – you can read this prost that describes the draw process, why there are holes in the number ranges and so on.
Now, I have seen 2nd draw winners from each region. However, I don’t have a strong handle on the number ranges of 1st draw and 2nd draw winners. It would be useful to gather that data to estimate how many additional cases were added in the second draw. The 2nd draw numbers will have been the next numbers in the regions (or countries in limited countries – see not below). So – if we know the highest numbers in the first draw for each region, and then we know the highest numbers for 2nd draw selectees, we will have a better idea of how many additional cases were announced.
So – take a look at my table below. I would like to find the following for each region:
- The highest number from the first draw (or the lowest from the second draw).
- The highest number for the second draw.
Please reply to this post if your case number is in the interesting range. Provide the approximate number, 1st draw/second draw, and country. Country is important because I some countries were “limited” in the first draw (which is normal), and I know some additional numbers were released for those countries. Those numbers will be lower than the highest numbers for the region. For instance, I know some Egypt cases were released in the second draw at around 40000, which is lower than the regional number for the first draw. Ghana is the same – their second draw starting around 15000. That’s OK, but still I would be interested in the data.
As I get the data I will be able to fill out the estimated numbers for 2nd draw cases/selectees based on my understanding of the “hole” rate for each region.
[table id=1 /]
OK – so just to explain the method behind the estimation using EU region as an example. I estimate they increased the numbers by about 7000 case numbers (your responses will help confirm that). I was previously able to extract the CEAC data which showed me every case within each a region. So – I know that EU had around 414 cases per 1000 case numbers at the higher number ranges. So – 414 cases per 1000 multiplied by 7000 means there are about 2900 new cases in the 2nd draw (more if the two limited countries, Uzbekistan and Ukraine, got additional selectees). At the EU average derivative rate of 1.8 that would mean there are 5200 extra selectees in addition to the 28500 announced in May. Again, based on previous years, and in particular the last two years, I am NOT worried about the EU 2nd draw entries. DV2016 only had 27000 selectees for EU, and because of that very low number, EU had a lot of “unused” visa slots that were used to support the oversubscribed AF and AS regions, helping those regions get “current”.
Note: I included Nepal in the table above because it is the only country that has a realistic chance of hitting the country limit (7% of available visas). Additionally it was the only limit in place at the end of DV2016 (at 7100), so it is likely to be limited again – especially given the increased number of selectees in Nepal compared to DV2016. I was a little surprised that they informed more selectees for Nepal. The selectee count was already higher than the selectees for last year (4000 versus 3801) and the highest case numbers were higher than the final cutoff last year. So – it is going to be a long nervous wait for Nepalese cases with high numbers. PLEASE NOTE – I cannot be precise about where the final cutoff will fall this year. No one in the world can possibly predict that with any accuracy. So – all I can say is this, Nepal cases under about 6800 perhaps even 7000 are pretty comfortable. Above 7000 there is some risk. Other than saying that – “wait and see” is about all I can say.
Possibility that AF 1st draw ended at around 41XXX
September 25, 2016 at 18:34
hi I am from nepal and my case no is 77## can I get second letter?
September 25, 2016 at 18:54
Were you in the first draw, or the second draw?
September 26, 2016 at 08:59
second draw.
September 26, 2016 at 13:58
Thanks for the confirmation.
September 25, 2016 at 05:03
How many nepali people are select of 2017 dv winner of secound draw
#Any idea
September 25, 2016 at 13:51
I think around 500. I need more feedback to be more sure – but that is my estimate at the moment.
September 26, 2016 at 05:20
Get visa 3500
Already Winner 4000 now also 2nd draw will be add 500
:Any effect for that
September 26, 2016 at 14:02
Risk. Particularly for the 500.
September 24, 2016 at 02:13
Hi Brit
1)I have a worry. I just read a post about public charges
Am a selectee of 2017.if my host in the u.s is my uncle who also went to u.s through lottery do I need any affidavit of support to show at the embassy to the CO.
2)Do I also need any supports documents to proof my family relationship with him in the u.s at the time of my interview?
Help me sir w ur advice
September 24, 2016 at 04:18
1. It depends on which embassy, but in general a I-134 is a wise precaution.
2. No
September 23, 2016 at 21:11
I want to know the recent forms i should send to my sponser in USA to fill and all the needed documents that they need from him !
September 23, 2016 at 21:47
READ THE FAQ
https://britsimonsays.com/all-about-public-charge-affidavit-of-support-i-134/
September 23, 2016 at 08:08
Sorry for non-topic question. Me and my wife, we both won on dv 2017 program (I 1st draw, wife-2nd), can I send to KCC two forms? In my application I’ll include my wife, so in wife’s application include me.
September 23, 2016 at 13:14
You can do that, yes. I had a similar case in DV2016.
September 23, 2016 at 13:53
Your case is the true definition of the excellent luck 😀 wish you more luck in US.
September 23, 2016 at 14:55
Thanks a lot, maybe this is fate!
September 23, 2016 at 05:19
HI britsimon! thanks for giving time to read this,,,, Hope u r alright,,,, i have a question with u,,,,
i am a dv winner of 2016 from nepal….. i arrived here 4 months ago,,,, i have my family with my parents and a brother who is 15 years old,,,,,, so i want to apply in green card for all of my family after i get my citizenship….. ??? the main issue i am unknown about is my brother who is just 15 and he will be able to come with mom n dad,,,,,,thank you
September 23, 2016 at 13:25
If he remains unmarried and is under 21 then he will be able to come as there derivative. So – you need to file for citizenship as soon as possible. You should study how to do that fast – because your brother will be close to 21.
September 23, 2016 at 02:49
Hi Brit
Am a selectee of 2017
I wish to ask Cameroon my ctry always hit the limit of visas every yr?
BC must people wining it are not aware of it.
September 23, 2016 at 03:08
Cameroon doesn’t hit the 7% limit, but is limited (restricted) in the draw.
September 22, 2016 at 23:26
Hi Simon iam dv winner 2017 I’m from Nepal my cn 9** and ds260 form sumbit in jun 3 when I get second letter .
September 22, 2016 at 23:43
Read this
https://britsimonsays.com/2nls-november-interviews-sent/
September 23, 2016 at 00:35
In a month from now.
September 22, 2016 at 23:23
I no longer receive your mail I don’t know why
September 22, 2016 at 03:21
What are the chances of a 2NL if your number is SA000008XX (Country: Venezuela)? If so, I will appreciate you to tell me an estimated date for a possible interview? Thanks in advanced.
September 22, 2016 at 04:07
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2017-basic-questions/
September 21, 2016 at 19:40
Hi Simon, may I please ask you for how many times is the VISA (the upgraded one) valid? I know I can use the first visa to enter the country, then get the stamp and leave the coutnry for up to 12 months. Could I for example enter the coutnry and activate the status, leave for 2 months, come back for 1 month then leave for 2 months again. Would this be ok? Could I do this before the green card arrives? Thank you
September 21, 2016 at 19:47
Yes. It’s not really a visa at that point. It’s simply proof that you are an LPR – so it’s fine to use for short trips like that.
September 21, 2016 at 11:28
U mean Nepal’s Highest case number is7600 in first draw ?
Plz reply becoz I have got highest CN 74##
Can this case have hope ,?
Plz
Plz
Reply suitably though u mentioned risk. ?
September 21, 2016 at 13:48
I cannot be certain, but yes I think the first draw was about 7600. As for chances – wait and see.
September 21, 2016 at 02:30
mr simon
is it not true that in final visa bulletin of 2016 everyone (even from Nepal) went current?
September 21, 2016 at 03:13
It did, but the 7100 was a defacto limit because there were almost no selectees from Nepal above that number.
September 20, 2016 at 22:50
Hi Mr. Simon its me again.just to include that i am from Ethiopia with CN AF2017****42** and that my interview date is on November 1
September 21, 2016 at 03:23
Great!
September 20, 2016 at 21:31
Hi Simon, I’m from EU , 2 draw, my number – 25*** – is it a high number? Any idea when will 2nd draw selectees have interviews? We appreciate everything that you do. Cheers
September 21, 2016 at 03:24
Processing is based on the case number – so it will be a few months before you interview.
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2017-basic-questions/
September 20, 2016 at 20:21
Hi Brit Simon ,I just received my 2NL for Nov. interview.l was current for October but submitted late May (24th).Thank you Sir for your undelayed ,reliable and heartly response inspite of our anxious and unpatiently redendent questions.May The Almighty God bless you with long live and good health with all your family and beloved once.Some day I hope to pay it forward in any way. Thanks.
September 20, 2016 at 19:57
Hi Britsimon,
I Just Recieved My 2NL For November Interviews – I Was Current For October VB- Thanks Alot For Your Usual Outstanding Support
September 20, 2016 at 20:17
waoh Ali congrates from Egypt?date summited plsssss
September 23, 2016 at 14:01
Hi Bate,
We are created group for Egyptian winners DV2017 in order to support each other. If you would like to join send me [email protected].
BR,
M
September 23, 2016 at 17:10
Just be a little careful with these sort of groups. It often becomes the blind leading the blind. However, there are such groups where Egyptians can share common experience whilst at the same time having the conversation in “public” and thereby benefitting from the expertise of people more experienced. Below is one such link, or I could create a page on my blog specifically for a group such as yours if you want.
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv2017-egyptian-winners-meet-here.332051/
September 20, 2016 at 18:44
Hey folks , just a note to Lottery winners from ITALY. Ask to join our newest group “DV-2017 Vincitori Italiani”. Case number range will be asked in order to be accepted
September 20, 2016 at 17:59
Hi, I was selected in the second draw, case number 259xx (Turkey / EU). How safe do you think this number would be? Should I be worried?
September 21, 2016 at 03:35
It’s fine.
September 20, 2016 at 12:13
Hi dear Simon
Do you have any idea the KCC when will send 2NLs interview of Nov?and when we should check?
September 20, 2016 at 14:02
Within the next week.
September 20, 2016 at 14:27
Sorry bro do you have any more close estimation about the date
Because the duration it’s too much
From 26th Sep to 2nd of Oct ????
September 20, 2016 at 14:42
Good grief. Be patient!
September 20, 2016 at 14:45
???????? appreciate, bro
September 20, 2016 at 21:01
Dear Simon
Just now someone got his 2NLs, but still I didn’t recive it,???? my case number AS1xxx, from Iran
September 21, 2016 at 03:26
When did you submit your DS260?
September 21, 2016 at 15:33
I submitted my DS-260 form on 24th Of May but no any result ?????
September 20, 2016 at 10:49
Your estimation for 1st draw for AF is at 45***, but i know someone who has 51*** from first draw
September 20, 2016 at 14:03
Well that is rumor, but I am asking for input so I can confirm the ranges. Some outliers will always be there…
September 20, 2016 at 05:59
Am a keen follower….
September 20, 2016 at 10:03
kiptayat your email plese
September 19, 2016 at 19:20
i am said these because and someone else have the same problem like me and the us embassy of tirana has said to him that they can open ds260 on ceac and he can fix it . is that possible. and can you says to me anything that i must be carefuly at this embassy becouse has so much trouble on it , thank you for your support, god bless you
September 19, 2016 at 19:26
That is up to the embassy. Contact them if you like. Frankly, it is such a trivial matter I wouldn’t worry about it!
September 19, 2016 at 16:41
Hi Mr, Simon:
I am a 2nd draw selectee, country Venezuela, case number 16XX.
Do you think that is possible that I will have a interview? maybe july? thanks a lot.
September 19, 2016 at 18:20
I can’t be certain at this point. So we have to wait and see.
September 19, 2016 at 15:46
hi brit how are you , i am a dv2017 winner , my interview is on 27 october 2016 , i am from albania , i have made a little mistake on ds260 with name of my high school , i have send all required documents to the embassy 1 week ago , i have write to the embassy email but they have not give me a response , i am worried about that, what to do , thank you
September 19, 2016 at 18:22
Nothing else you can do. Just attend the interview and relax.
September 19, 2016 at 12:54
When i get Secound latrer It my Case Num
As55##
September 19, 2016 at 13:08
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2017-basic-questions/
September 19, 2016 at 10:38
Hi Simon.
I’m a 2nd draw selectee, my region is SA, country Venezuela, case number 13XX
Do you think that is possible that I will have a interview? july or august 2017?
Thanks for your patience…
September 19, 2016 at 11:45
Yes, but earlier than July most likely
September 19, 2016 at 10:09
can I know upto which case no. 2nl is realse this time
September 19, 2016 at 11:46
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2017-2nd-visa-bulletin-published/
September 19, 2016 at 08:59
Hi BritSimon,
I observe the approximation from your table and it says 45000 for the 1st draw. However, mine is below 40000 (approximately 39xxx). What is the implication?
September 19, 2016 at 11:47
Egypt?
September 23, 2016 at 08:23
Ethiopia
September 23, 2016 at 13:12
The implication was that you are from a country that is restricted in the draw (the numbers for those countries end early). I guessed Egypt, but Ethiopia is also such a country. So – your lower number makes sense.
September 19, 2016 at 05:04
Can I ask Something Sir
Its My Problem
#I m dv winner of nepal 2017
First time i do fill Up dv From
That time input mistake Date Of Birth
#Now Ds-260 submite i do gon a Currect
Have i any problem I will get 2nl notifaction
#Plz Reply
September 19, 2016 at 01:11
Dear Simon, are the case number of nepal varies from other AS regions … I mean to say for example nepal has case number 2017AS5344 does anyone with AS region has same case number …
September 19, 2016 at 02:47
Nepal is simply a country within the AS region. So no, no one else would have that AS number.
September 19, 2016 at 03:27
Ok I got you … Then
1. why is that the people from Iraq with case number AS79** is safe and people from nepal with case number lower than that(I.e. 75**) is not safe or is in risk … ??
2..Aren’t every case number within a region are equally evaluated??
September 19, 2016 at 05:08
Did you not read the following text from the article above?
“Note: I included Nepal in the table above because it is the only country that has a realistic chance of hitting the country limit (7% of available visas). Additionally it was the only limit in place at the end of DV2016 (at 7100), so it is likely to be limited again – especially given the increased number of selectees in Nepal compared to DV2016. “
September 19, 2016 at 05:26
Thank you for reply BritSimon …I am more clear now .. thanx
September 19, 2016 at 00:33
I still can’t find someone from Morocco who got selected in the second withdraw!!!!
strange, isn’t it?
September 19, 2016 at 02:49
No, not really.
September 18, 2016 at 20:17
hi brit
how you doing
i want ask
my friends bring 3 form of i134 for the us embassy .. do you think they gonna accept it ?
because this is Family of six people
and they bring 3 supports they give them the i 134 and ech one of those support makes 22.000 $ in a year
this should be Enough right ?
thank you for helping
September 19, 2016 at 02:55
No. You can only present one I-134, and the minimum income for a 6 person family is over $32000.
https://britsimonsays.com/all-about-public-charge-affidavit-of-support-i-134/
September 18, 2016 at 19:49
Again an additional letter was added to my surname i got to know when i was selected. Where can i correct this mistake. * kcc or my local consulate office?
September 18, 2016 at 19:55
You already asked. I said to use your correct name on your DS260. That is all you do (doing so informs KCC and the embassy).
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2017-2nd-visa-bulletin-published/comment-page-2/#comment-47444
September 18, 2016 at 19:46
Dear simon, my case number is AS 790* , and am from Iraq. I am worried that i may never get to the interview since my case number is very high!!! What do you think?
September 18, 2016 at 19:58
It doesn’t sound too high to me.
britsimonsays.com/dv2017-basic-questions/
September 18, 2016 at 19:38
Am in AF region with cn 000 16***. What’s my chance and when is my interview coming on. I just submitted my dv 260.
September 18, 2016 at 19:59
britsimonsays.com/dv2017-basic-questions/
September 18, 2016 at 15:05
Nepal Also add secound draw result
Already 4000 winner plz reply me
September 18, 2016 at 15:14
I have written about Nepal above.
September 19, 2016 at 02:41
Sir you mean does not add in nepal
September 19, 2016 at 02:45
I don’t understand what you mean.
September 19, 2016 at 04:46
I mean
Secound draw result neppl also add Or Not
#reply plz
September 19, 2016 at 05:05
Yes there are second draw winners from Nepal.
September 18, 2016 at 12:37
Hi
I am from AF region (South Africa) with case number 21***. First draw selectee 2017.
Good luck with your estimation.
Cheers.
September 18, 2016 at 16:04
Hi suzy someone also from south africa good luck with the process. Our number is 8***
September 18, 2016 at 16:05
Hi suzy. Yeh someone else from south africa reading the blogs. Good luck Our number is 8***
September 20, 2016 at 08:17
Hi Lizelle, yes reading as much info as we can get online 🙂
This blog is very helpful too.
Good luck, your interview shouldn’t be too far away!
September 18, 2016 at 12:15
Hello Simon, thanks for your support during this stressful journey. Europe 2nd draw EU00025XXX
September 18, 2016 at 12:05
Hi Simon.
As you already know from my comment on another post in the blog, I’m a 2nd draw selectee, my region is SA, country Venezuela, and case number 17XX
Hope this helps your estimation.
Thanks again for your work.
September 18, 2016 at 12:41
Also, I read in another comment that someone from my same country and region was selected in the 2nd draw and his case number was 19XX
Hope this helps you too.
September 18, 2016 at 14:12
Your number (2017SA17XX) was my highest known number, but it would like 2017SA19XX might be the high number. I’d like to confirm that with a second report.
September 18, 2016 at 09:53
Hi , I’m from Europe.
You can adjust the European Numbers :
I’m from the first draw and my number is a between 22500 and 22600.
I’ve also read on a previous post (the one with the second draw) someone from Europe writing that she had the number around 24,500 on the second draw (it was one of the first comments).
Hope it will help.
Cheers and thank you for all what you do
September 18, 2016 at 14:14
I think 1st draw numbers go up to around 23500, so your number doesn’t adjust the range. Again – the second draw number is also within my assumptions and causes no re-adjustment.
September 18, 2016 at 17:20
Hi Simon, we have three reported winners in the 2nd draw from Balkans, two in the 25*** and one in 23**** range. I hope this helps, Zee
September 18, 2016 at 17:32
Sorry, two more in the 2nd draw – case #s in the 24*** and 28*** range. Not sure if it matters, but we have a winner reported in May in the 29*** range. Zee
September 18, 2016 at 17:36
Interesting about the 29XXX range. I wonder if that is an AF region one.
September 18, 2016 at 17:35
Great thanks – pretty much along the lines of my assumptions.
September 19, 2016 at 01:23
Hi Simon – in regards to your comment above – it’s all Europe, ex-Yugoslavia region.
September 19, 2016 at 02:46
Perhaps just an outlier then. It has happened before – but it would not be possible otherwise.
September 19, 2016 at 13:57
Hi BritSimon, I’m from EU , 2 draw, my number – 2310X
September 19, 2016 at 14:03
What country Maria?
September 18, 2016 at 09:50
What are the chances of a 2NL if your number is OC000011XX
September 18, 2016 at 14:14
100%
September 19, 2016 at 13:17
Getting my ds260 form filled out sooner will it get me a interview any quicker or only in the time slot of my case number? Thanks again for all your help
September 19, 2016 at 14:04
Filling it in early cannot make your interview get scheduled before your case number is current. Filling in late can cause a delay to the interview after the case number is current.
September 18, 2016 at 04:54
Hi simon,
I am a dv lottery winner from algeria, And i am asking for the conditions that must be in the person who gonna be my sponsor, because you know in our country you need to have a sponsor to get the greencard
September 18, 2016 at 05:09
https://britsimonsays.com/all-about-public-charge-affidavit-of-support-i-134/
September 18, 2016 at 02:46
Im dv winner of nepal
My case num is 57XX
How many chances of get secound latter plz
September 18, 2016 at 03:45
Rahul please never mention your case number in such a way … Please use 57** or 5*** to maintain the security of your case number ..
September 18, 2016 at 05:11
You will definately get the 2NL. However, its unwise to disclose the full case no. here in this or any other blog.
September 18, 2016 at 05:12
Read the article above.
September 18, 2016 at 02:00
I’m srilankan
My case number is 2017AS00003079 and I sent ds 260 form in August 1st week
Question1- when will I get my interview?
Question2- how can i find my srilankan number?
September 18, 2016 at 05:19
1. https://britsimonsays.com/dv2017-basic-questions/
2. There is no such thing.
September 18, 2016 at 01:58
If someone is HIV positive can he or she participate on Dv lottery and if wins can he or she be able to go to usa
September 18, 2016 at 05:18
HIV is not a problem.
September 18, 2016 at 01:25
Hi BritSimon …. i am from nepal I was deleted for dv2017 on September draw … And my case number is AS2017007***…as you have mentioned above case number above 7000 are in risk … Does that mean I won’t get selected for interview ..
September 18, 2016 at 05:21
It means what I said. there is some risk.
September 18, 2016 at 01:14
Am a Cameroonian a selectee of first draw w case mum 41xxxx
Wish to ask if there is any risk for Cameroonians not to obtain a visa despite their high or low case numbers.
September 18, 2016 at 05:22
Some people who did not follow the instructions or meet the requirements will be refused.
September 18, 2016 at 00:28
Hi, first I want to thank you for the amazing job you do for all of us .
My question is ( and I don’t know if you have the answer) . I”m italian living in us with a e2 visa … how many change of status you see every year from dv winners ?
Also there is a statistic for who win based on when they enter the application?? More at the end of deadline or more at the beginnig??
Thanks again !!!
September 18, 2016 at 00:47
About 3% to 5% of DV cases go through an adjustment of status process.
As the article above points out there is NO difference when you enter. It is random.
September 18, 2016 at 23:48
Thanks … 😉
September 17, 2016 at 23:24
Hi Simon,
My case number is 42xxx from egypt, and i am afraid not to be selected as i am from limited country, what is your opinion?
I have snother question:
They are saying in the last bulletin that africa numbers 13500 except egypt 7500. They do this because egypt has high numbers in the first and they organize to prevent crowd in embassy? And if i live in saudi arabia what will be the case? I will follow egypt numbers or africa numbers?
Thanks a lot for your continuous support.
September 18, 2016 at 00:49
If you are from Egypt you follow the Egypt number on the VB. They limit the country in the draw process, and in the monthly progression. However, I would not be concerned with your number – it is fine.
September 18, 2016 at 06:52
Thanks a lot BritSimon for your help and your amazing site.
I have a question, Do you think that Egypt has a chance to hit the country limit – 7% of available visas?
September 18, 2016 at 14:27
I don’t think so. They have enough non responses (people that don’t process their win) and refusals to remove that chance. Having said that I don’t know exactly how many Egyptian cases were selected in the second draw, so I can’t be certain how many more than the 4501 selectees Egypt now has – hence I cannot be 100% certain.
September 18, 2016 at 14:03
Hi Adel,
I’m from Egypt as well with AF40XXX almost asking for the same thing. We pray for the best to us.
Please can I contact you to support each other. if it is ok, what is your Email ? Thanks
September 18, 2016 at 17:14
Dear maldiny I’m from Egypt as well 2017 lottery winner , give me you email , i like the idea of supporting group
September 18, 2016 at 17:31
[email protected]
September 18, 2016 at 23:50
also iam from egypt 2nd draw contact me and need groub
September 19, 2016 at 21:51
The group idea is very nice ([email protected])
September 19, 2016 at 21:53
Sure my e-mail is ([email protected])
September 20, 2016 at 09:30
Hi guys
I am also from Egypt case number 24xxx, my mail address [email protected].
September 20, 2016 at 12:39
Hi Adel,
Would you please check your Email spelling as it seems not valid one. I tried to send you with no success. I would rather prefer you to send me on [email protected].
Cheers,
M
September 20, 2016 at 14:18
Dear Maldiny
I am also from Egypt with case number 24xxxx it will be great if we could establish a group that will be very beneficial for all others.
This is my email address [email protected]
Thanks