I’m loving the information that we can get from CEAC with the new DoS strategy of putting all the cases in the system.
As some of you will know in previous years we had only seen cases in the CEAC system once their case was scheduled. This year, as soon as I extracted the first file I could see we were getting all cases. We saw many thousands of cases marked as “at NVC” and in the first extract I also noticed cases marked as “in Transit”. I speculated that these latter cases were cases that were on the way to the embassy – in other words cases that had just received their 2NL and the embassy had not yet “acknowledged” the cases in the CEAC system by updating the case information.
So – since 2NLs expected and were finally sent today, I have been “watching” CEAC data for a few days expecting to see some cases that were previously “at NVC” turn into “in Transit”. Sure enough, that happened this evening at a time which would be late evening on the East coast. I work in IT – so I suspected that would be a likely time for a mass update.
So – I have captured the global data up to the March cutoff numbers. By looking at the data we can see how many cases that went current in March got their 2NLs. We can also see how many cases got their 2NLs which were already current – but had waited because of late submission of their DS260. The numbers (summary shown below) are very revealing.
Look at Africa region in detail
We can see that 2018 cases (which would be about 3200/3300 selectees) have been sent their 2NLs today. That is nearly 35% of all the cases that have been scheduled so far for AF – so this was a BIG month.
We know that AF region will typically get around 10 to 12% of its annual quota each month. KCC will adjust the pace of the VB to achieve that – and actually that was about the only thing they seemed to do right last year. They are good at controlling the pace. The first 3 months is always slow, but the pace allows the finish line to be met at around September.
Now – that means that KCC will try and get to around 2200 to 2400 visas issued per month (a bit less in the early months to allow for the completing AP cases in later months. How many selectees does that take? Well the average success rate is around 65% for AF region – so they need around 3500 selectees – which is around 2100/2200 cases (allowing for a few marriages and babies).
So now we can see why the AF visa bulletin jump was so low (only 1800 increase). At the time they release the VB they already know how many cases are processed and ready to be scheduled. That is why if your case is not completed by the first day or two of the month, you will get pushed into the following month. So – look below at the data. The increase of 1800 cases from 26000 to 27800 yielded 220 cases. However 1798 cases from previous months were completed at that time getting them to just over 2000 cases. So, as I had explained several times before, they did not need to increase the VB very much because the already current cases were yielding enough new schedulable cases anyway.
Now – what can we infer for the next VB. Well take a look at the cases under the 27800 that are at NVC. There are 13173 cases out of the total 19008 cases contained within the 27800. Of the 19008 cases I would expect about 30% to never respond. The remainder (about 13300) will return their DS260s. 5835 have already been scheduled – so that means there will be about 7500 active cases carrying forward. It would not surprise me at all if that group were able to yield another 1700/1800 cases – meaning they might only need a small increase in the AF number next month to yield 400/500 cases. So – although I keep saying I won’t do VB predictions anymore, I would guess that AF will only increase to between 31k and 33k. That also fits in with my longer term prediction for the year end cutoff.
EU has a similar backlog of “at NVC” cases as Africa – so we could apply similar math to EU. However, the split between already current and March numbers was not so dramatic. So – EU could have a reasonable increase this month – within the range I have already discussed – so I expect around 27 to 28k.
AS region has a much smaller backlog problem. It has already experienced slow VB progress (because of Nepal capacity), so I would expect a jump of around 1000 this month.
OC and SA should move in line with expectations.
The DS260 backlog – comment on ongoing impact.
I am increasingly seeing the backlog as a larger problem. The 2NLs today show they have barely processed into September submissions at all. I really expected the pace of processing to have sped up by now, but it hasn’t yet. It is hard to imagine a factor this large NOT having an impact on the processing. If the processing speed does not improve then all cases will need to have been submitted some time in March in order that they are completed by early July which is when the September interviews will be scheduled. There are always late submissions, so this year we will hear from people who submit their forms in April onward, only to find they cannot be processed in time. That will help some of the high case numbers for people that have submitted by March.
The datafile is here if you would like to see it yourself.
February 1, 2015 at 21:25
The highest number I know of is EU45006. So – it sounds like you are at the end of a long line. If things go “normally” then no, your number won’t be called. The only way you could get a chance is if the DS260 fiasco causes a lot of cases to miss their chance. We have to wait and see.
February 1, 2015 at 21:35
My number is Eu44581
February 1, 2015 at 22:54
OK – so there are only 141 cases higher than yours in EU – about 250 people including family. So – it is very unlikely that you will get an interview.
February 3, 2015 at 07:02
What you think about my number 40xxx?
February 3, 2015 at 14:38
eU40xxx is in the risky range. It might get helped by the DS260 backlog which could catch some people out.
February 3, 2015 at 07:40
AF 339** I had submitted ds270 form in 23 may ? ur predictions pls
February 3, 2015 at 14:39
I would expect you to get current for May interviews.
February 3, 2015 at 16:04
i submitted my ds 260 on sep 24 and my case number is 28xxx, when is my interview?
February 3, 2015 at 16:39
You might get in to the April interviews, if not, then May.
February 3, 2015 at 16:15
i need to unlock my ds 260 form wich i submitted on SEP 24 last year, how am i going to unlock it? will this affect my interview date correspoding to the case cutt off numbers?
February 3, 2015 at 16:40
Be careful with unlocking at this time – why do you need to unlock?
February 4, 2015 at 00:17
thanks for the patience in responding to each question,
“eU40xxx is in the risky range. It might get helped by the DS260 backlog which could catch some people out.” i dont understand how the DS260 backlog will could could catch some people out (especially does who have submitted their ds260) for higher case numbers to get interview, pleased explain this further
February 4, 2015 at 01:36
There might be some people who have not submitted their DS260 yet – some people submit their paperwork late. Anyone who submits their paperwork from March onwards is gambling – and some of those people will be caught out. My comment does not relate to those people who have already submitted their DS260.
February 4, 2015 at 20:08
I’m EU39K and I sent DS260 ON June 30th. Can I feel confident. Thanks Simon
February 4, 2015 at 20:31
You are not “safe” but you have a good chance.
February 5, 2015 at 05:45
when filling ds260 on may, i responded “other travel documents” to the question that asks travel document b/c i didnt have passport at that time. Will this create a problem, please reply soon in case i need to unlock ds260 to make changes with this regard
February 5, 2015 at 06:57
It isn’t a problem BUT if you now have the passport you should unlock and add that.
February 10, 2015 at 13:51
Hello Mr. Britsimon,
My CN is AS176xx .Can I keep hope about my interview
February 10, 2015 at 14:57
I am sad to say no I don’t think you will ever get current. I hope you entered DV2016.
February 15, 2015 at 18:38
Hi, you are providing amazing asistance here so thank you in advance.My wife and I have submitted our DS-260s on the 26th of september and our CN is EU27***. Since our CN is current for april in the recent VB, should we be optimistic about getting an interview in april via a september submit?
February 15, 2015 at 23:56
Yes – I think you will be in the April batch – good luck!
February 18, 2015 at 16:14
Hello Mr. BritSimon,
My CN is 245xx … current on April and I submitted my DS260 on late July… when can I expect my interview? Thank you for your help.
February 18, 2015 at 16:17
April. Expect your 2nl in the next few days…
February 19, 2015 at 01:44
It looks very fast, maybe because I wasn’t clear… I’m doing AOS… my nr is 2015EU000245xx…current in April and like I mentioned before, I submitted my DS260 in July…
Thank you for the answer.
February 19, 2015 at 01:51
If you are doing AOS you could already have submitted your I-485 package. You probably already got your 2NL – it is different for AOS cases – it is a simple acknowledgement that they got your DS260. However regardless of whether you received your 2NL or not, you can submit your I485 as soon as the VB is released that made you current.
March 1, 2015 at 01:45
Hello Mr. BritSimon,
I received an email 3 weeks after submitting the DS260 form… Immigrant Visa and Alien Registration Confirmation. Is it the 2NL? I’m not sure how the 2NL looks like?
March 1, 2015 at 01:49
No that is not the 2nl, and it us not normal for a DV case. Is your case a DV case?
March 1, 2015 at 01:54
Yes, I was selected in the 2015 DV lottery. I’m doing AOS. I have F1 student visa.
March 1, 2015 at 02:47
Ahhh, ok, aos is different – and the 2nl is different and less important than the cp version.
March 1, 2015 at 02:11
I got this information in my email “Dear Applicant,Thank you for being a valued U.S. Consular Electronic Application Center (CEAC) customer. Your online Immigrant Visa and Alien Registration Application Form(DS-260) has been submitted” plus the confirmation page as an attachment. I just want to be sure. If is not the 2NL, what I can do to get it?
March 1, 2015 at 04:02
Thank you for your response.
March 13, 2015 at 20:17
My case number is SA17xx. I notice that SA is very slow right now. Do I reach an interview?
March 13, 2015 at 21:49
We have to wait and see what happens in Venezuela.
March 16, 2015 at 13:03
First of all let me apologize for not understanding what should be a direct path to take an asumption. In am actually cuban. Now, does something happening in Venezuela can affect the whole SA region? Is there any change to move forward any non Venezuelan case? What could make things go forward and what backwards?
March 16, 2015 at 14:08
The political changes in Venezuela are very recent. Wait until the next VB to know more.
April 30, 2015 at 11:10
Hi, I am getting ready for my intervew, I forgot to print out the 1st congressional letter and the page changed to the 2nd letter . How can I gettet the 1st letter if not what should I do when I go to the intervew ? Thanks
April 30, 2015 at 13:29
You can’t get the 1NL anymore – don’t worry – print the 2NL – it will be accepted.
April 30, 2015 at 15:54
Ok thanks for your fast reply
May 21, 2015 at 02:09
I received today the 2NL for july!!!!!!! But I’m still at NVC in CEAC. Is that ok?
thanks for all your support
May 21, 2015 at 05:06
Yes that is OK – none of the CEAC cases have been updated yet.
February 22, 2018 at 10:56
I’d know if any of current numbers in April has received 2nl
February 22, 2018 at 17:05
I will post an article when they are sent.