This is interesting. This morning I received a message from a reader called Fayola who had contacted KCC and been sent what appears to be the DV lottery section of the next Visa bulletin. I would normally treat this with caution, unless I have some way to corroborate it with another source. However, I have had some people (three I believe) that have asked to unlock their cases and KCC have said no because their case is already current for scheduling. This is common when the VB number has been released – but up until now I have never heard that before the VB was actually released. Then – this month – I have heard of three such cases. So – it *is* possible that KCC are indeed working from the set of numbers below – and that these might well be the numbers we will see released in a few days.

Please understand that these are not “official” until we see them in the published VB – but the format is accurate, so I am inclined to “trust” this information. KCC could *of course* change these numbers, but with that said, have a look a the numbers and then read my comments below the VB.

 

——————————————————————————–

For October, immigrant numbers in the DV category are available to qualified DV-2018 applicants chargeable to all regions/eligible countries as follows. When an allocation cut-off number is shown, visas are available only for applicants with DV regional lottery rank numbers BELOW the specified allocation cut-off number:

AFRICA: 8,500 Except: Egypt 2,350
Ethiopia 2,100

ASIA: 1,200 Except: Iran 750
Nepal 750

EUROPE: 2,600

NORTH AMERICA: 2

OCEANIA: 185

SOUTH AMERICA: 190

The Visa Bulletin at http://www.travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin.html is updated monthly and contains the current allocation cut-off numbers as well as other important information.

Interviews for the DV 2018 program will begin in October 2017 and will conclude on September 30, 2018. KCC cannot provide information as to when an interview date may become available for your case. Interviews are scheduled numerically according to assigned case numbers which have completed processing. The Department of State designates how many interviews will be scheduled each month according to visa availability. You may refer to the visa bulletin at http://www.travel.state.gov for the list of current numbers. This information is updated on the 15th day of each month thereafter.

 

OK – now for some comments.

 

These numbers are surprisingly low compared to other recent years. Having said that, these numbers seem sensible *IF* there are no DS260 “backlogs”.

Let me explain. The backlog is a term I use to describe a case where many DS260s are waiting to be processed. Many people submit their DS260s in the first few days after results are announced, and KCC can’t process those submissions fast enough, so a “backlog” develops – meaning cases waiting in queue for processing.

Normally the first few VBs of the year have higher numbers – because the backlog means KCC have to have a high number to get the number of interviews they need, due to delays in processing the flood of DS260s submitted in the early days after the results are announced.  If these numbers are correct it shows they have yielded enough processed cases from these low numbers to fill the interview slots available in October. If that is correct, it means one of the following:

  1. DS260 processing throughput has been massively increased, meaning little or no backlog.
  2. KCC have found a way to prioritize DS260 processing based on submission date AND case number. That would be a smart move if they have been able to do that.

To explain – since the introduction of the DS260, we have seen processing backlogs for the first few months of the year. If someone with a case number like 2018AF45XXX submitted their DS260 in the first few days in May, that DS260 would be processed (background checks) before lower case numbers submitted days or weeks later, even though the high case number could not be interviewed early. So – if 2018AF1XXX were submitted in June or July – that case would not able to be interviewed in October, because there would be a backlog of cases to process based on earlier submissions. That was wasteful and frustrating – because the later case numbers (like 2018AF45XXX ) would have to wait until they were current – so their rapid processing was pointless. KCC might have found a way to prioritize the processing early case numbers. This is just a guess, but I hope that it is correct! To the “ladies of KCC” – please feel free to let me know if I am wrong or right!!! 🙂

Now – this has the effect of reducing the VB number because if a higher percentage of cases in the first numbers are ready for interviews, KCC can set the VB number at lower levels and still get enough interviews to meet the embassy capacity.

With all that explained – these numbers are pretty much what I would expect if most cases were ready for scheduling. The countries that specially slowed (Nepal, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia), all have so many selectees in the early number ranges that they are slowed down for processing.

For instance, Nepal will have about 40% of the early numbers – so out of the first 750 case numbers about 300 will be Nepalese cases. Each case has the selectee and the derivatives of that person – so 300 cases would be about 500 people. NOt ALL of the 300 cases would be ready for interview, but the Nepal embassy can probably handle about 200 to 250 DV interviews in a month. So – limiting the VB to 750 is about what I would expect. The same calculation technique (although not at 40%) could be applied to the other countries limited in this way.

I hope that explains and helps people understand the process a little better.

Lastly, thanks to Fayola for forwarding this to me so I could pass on this information to my readers.