A couple of days ago, the 2NLs were sent out and I managed to get some good counts of how many interviews were arranged for each region. I can also calculate response rates accurately from the latest data and with those pieces of data I can calculate the expected increase for the next VB pretty accurately.
Firstly, EU and OC region are already almost current. Their numbers in the last VB were so close to being current that there is less than 20 case numbers not current between the two regions. Both regions will be current in May, and there is no need to explain that with analysis.
Obviously, that does not mean that interviews in EU will stop. If someone from EU were to submit their DS260 within the next couple of months, they would still get an interview.
So, let’s talk about the other regions…
By considering the cases at 18700 to 23800 I can see that 56.4% of those cases have responded. I am also aware of some cases that were scheduled for interviews where the DS260 was submitted in early January. That means the DS260 delay (and subsequent backlog) is almost over now. Some cases from the backlog will continue to the very end, because some people have not yet submitted their DS260.
For AF region I can see that KCC arranged about 2100 interviews this month. That is one of the highest months I have ever seen – so they are really at full pace now. Of the 2100 interviews about 400 were used for “backlog” cases – almost 20%. That is a low number and coupled with the response rate we can assume (at least 57%, probably more), we can now –predict the likely next VB.
So assuming they arrange 2000/2100 interviews for May and have no more than 400 interviews for backlog, they will need 1600 or 1700 cases. Using 1700 and 57% response rate, that means about 3000 cases. The cases are not consecutive (there are gaps or “holes” between the numbers), so we can use the full CEAC file to see how many numbers we have to increase to get 3000 actual case numbers. The number comes out at 29000.
So – I think the next VB for AF will be between 28000 and 30000.
Those who read my earlier posts of analysis will know that the case density drops at around 30000, so the jumps for VBs after this next VB could be higher still. We could see jumps of around 7000 per month after that point up until KCC judge the quota to be close.
Asia is more complicated because Nepal is being limited. That means within one set of data there are two numeric limits being applied. That makes it difficult to use the calculation method used above for the Africa estimate.
However, Last month the VB increased by 750 for Nepal and 900 for the Rest of Asia. That revealed about 550 interviews – of which around 200+ were Iranians, 150+ were Nepalese and the remainder were ROA (rest of Asia). I am basing those numbers on the cases that have been “claimed since the cases went to in transit status. I think it is likely that we will see a similar increase in the month of May.
So that would mean that Nepal would again be limited to around 5750 to 5900. And Asia as a whole would increase to 6600 to 6800.
Longer term forecasts are less accurate of course. But to give a general idea or expectation (NOT precise numbers) we could assume pace will continue until Nepal and Iranian cases are exhausted. Density of cases for both Iran and Nepal max out in the 7000 to 7800 range.
So we can guess that Nepal will grow at around the same pace for June interviews as May, (so June will be around 6400 to 6600) and then hit the final max in July. That final max depends on the 7% limit.
For the Rest of Asia, Iran will probably be at or very close to its max case in for June interviews. That means June should be around 7500 to 7800. If quota were not an issue, Asia could theoretically move faster from that point onward since the density is so much lower. However, It is unclear whether KCC will limit the pace increase to hold the door open for Iranian AP cases as they did last year.
Looking at the 2NLs, there were 74 interviews yielded from the increase of 125 case numbers (including some interviews that went to backlog. I expect the pace of 125 to be about the same this month – and would expect to see the next VB at 1025 to 1075.
Now, as logical and scientific as we can be with predicting, the only numbers that really count are the ones that KCC release in the Visa Bulletin. KCC have more information than I have access to and they are in the driving seat. The DV process teaches patience – so ultimately we have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully though this post will at least give you a ROUGH IDEA of what to expect over the next couple of months, and I will update you as I get more information.
If you are wondering what the density is all about, please read this article on density.