A couple of days ago, the 2NLs were sent out and I managed to get some good counts of how many interviews were arranged for each region. I can also calculate response rates accurately from the latest data and with those pieces of data I can calculate the expected increase for the next VB pretty accurately.
Firstly, EU and OC region are already almost current. Their numbers in the last VB were so close to being current that there is less than 20 case numbers not current between the two regions. Both regions will be current in May, and there is no need to explain that with analysis.
Obviously, that does not mean that interviews in EU will stop. If someone from EU were to submit their DS260 within the next couple of months, they would still get an interview.
So, let’s talk about the other regions…
By considering the cases at 18700 to 23800 I can see that 56.4% of those cases have responded. I am also aware of some cases that were scheduled for interviews where the DS260 was submitted in early January. That means the DS260 delay (and subsequent backlog) is almost over now. Some cases from the backlog will continue to the very end, because some people have not yet submitted their DS260.
For AF region I can see that KCC arranged about 2100 interviews this month. That is one of the highest months I have ever seen – so they are really at full pace now. Of the 2100 interviews about 400 were used for “backlog” cases – almost 20%. That is a low number and coupled with the response rate we can assume (at least 57%, probably more), we can now –predict the likely next VB.
So assuming they arrange 2000/2100 interviews for May and have no more than 400 interviews for backlog, they will need 1600 or 1700 cases. Using 1700 and 57% response rate, that means about 3000 cases. The cases are not consecutive (there are gaps or “holes” between the numbers), so we can use the full CEAC file to see how many numbers we have to increase to get 3000 actual case numbers. The number comes out at 29000.
So – I think the next VB for AF will be between 28000 and 30000.
Those who read my earlier posts of analysis will know that the case density drops at around 30000, so the jumps for VBs after this next VB could be higher still. We could see jumps of around 7000 per month after that point up until KCC judge the quota to be close.
Asia is more complicated because Nepal is being limited. That means within one set of data there are two numeric limits being applied. That makes it difficult to use the calculation method used above for the Africa estimate.
However, Last month the VB increased by 750 for Nepal and 900 for the Rest of Asia. That revealed about 550 interviews – of which around 200+ were Iranians, 150+ were Nepalese and the remainder were ROA (rest of Asia). I am basing those numbers on the cases that have been “claimed since the cases went to in transit status. I think it is likely that we will see a similar increase in the month of May.
So that would mean that Nepal would again be limited to around 5750 to 5900. And Asia as a whole would increase to 6600 to 6800.
Longer term forecasts are less accurate of course. But to give a general idea or expectation (NOT precise numbers) we could assume pace will continue until Nepal and Iranian cases are exhausted. Density of cases for both Iran and Nepal max out in the 7000 to 7800 range.
So we can guess that Nepal will grow at around the same pace for June interviews as May, (so June will be around 6400 to 6600) and then hit the final max in July. That final max depends on the 7% limit.
For the Rest of Asia, Iran will probably be at or very close to its max case in for June interviews. That means June should be around 7500 to 7800. If quota were not an issue, Asia could theoretically move faster from that point onward since the density is so much lower. However, It is unclear whether KCC will limit the pace increase to hold the door open for Iranian AP cases as they did last year.
Looking at the 2NLs, there were 74 interviews yielded from the increase of 125 case numbers (including some interviews that went to backlog. I expect the pace of 125 to be about the same this month – and would expect to see the next VB at 1025 to 1075.
Now, as logical and scientific as we can be with predicting, the only numbers that really count are the ones that KCC release in the Visa Bulletin. KCC have more information than I have access to and they are in the driving seat. The DV process teaches patience – so ultimately we have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully though this post will at least give you a ROUGH IDEA of what to expect over the next couple of months, and I will update you as I get more information.
If you are wondering what the density is all about, please read this article on density.
March 2, 2016 at 14:28
hello Brit. Please when are you going to publish CEAC data?
March 2, 2016 at 14:50
March 2, 2016 at 18:25
Hi Brist good. anxiously awaiting the ECAC data
March 2, 2016 at 18:30
March 2, 2016 at 17:04
Pl, is it ok for a sponsor to send the affidavit of support 6weeks prior to the interview? My sponsor will be coming for holidays ab 6weeks to my interview so he has decided to do it b4 coming..Pl reply
March 2, 2016 at 18:08
March 4, 2016 at 14:52
Hello, i know everybody is focused on this year.
but i missed out last year unfortunately with a high case number
i seem to remember somebody saying that if you miss out one year, sometimes they pick you again, or something along those lines, is there any truth to that?
March 4, 2016 at 15:54
There is no truth to that. None. If you enter again you have the very same chance as anyone else in that year.
March 6, 2016 at 01:14
I am AF29*** and currently living and working i the US. I got married and added my husband and changed from AOS to CP. However, I am wondering, will I have to submit affidavit of support when we interview since I have a full-time job and all? How much is reasonable to show and can it be in different accounts (eg my account and then another one belonging to him). Also where do we find out the items thats needed for the interview? Hope you can help. Thanks
March 6, 2016 at 01:35
You will be able to show your US based income instead of an AoS. Savings are useful also, but the income is the most important thing.
March 8, 2016 at 14:05
Hi, Mr. I live in USA. My brother will be current soon( Af 305**). A family of three. My income is not enough to sponsor his cause. However, i own a house of 3 bedroom. Can hosting him will help him? I also can send him a job offer.
Plz, give me some ideas.
P.S. my income is only 20k and i have a family(4 of us)
March 8, 2016 at 14:56
The asset of the house is not as “valued” as income for the immigration purpose. He may be ok simply with you “hosting” him. It depends where he will interview – do you know where that will take place?
March 8, 2016 at 19:34
March 8, 2016 at 19:45
They are likely to ask for an I-134.
Can you get a close friend to complete an I-134 for your brother. Unlike the I-864 there is NO financial liability on the “sponsor” when the I-134 is used – so it is safe for someone to sponsor your brother, but the I-134 is best from someone who is connected to him in some way.
March 8, 2016 at 19:39
Can job offer will be any help? Interview will be in Casablanca, Morocco.
Thank much again
March 8, 2016 at 19:41
A GENUINE job offer can help – but be very careful – it is hard to get a genuine job offer from abroad, and a fake job offer will do more harm to your case than good.
March 8, 2016 at 19:54
Thank you very much for your answer. Plz, explain to me how I hoat him. Do i write a letter? Is there a specific form?
March 8, 2016 at 19:59
You use an I-134
March 10, 2016 at 11:37
hey Simon,i am cn.AF40k,am i safe….and when do i expect my 2nl?
March 10, 2016 at 15:14
Safe yes, 2NL in May or June
March 25, 2016 at 14:40
Hi Mr. Brits and happy good Friday, I would like to know in which month we gonna get the last vb far this year (2016)?
March 25, 2016 at 17:28
March 26, 2016 at 17:29
March 25, 2016 at 18:11
Please brit interview can wait knowing that dig itral is 2016af53*** kodmmt had to draw for dv2017 is this a problem if re- integration digital this year
March 25, 2016 at 18:28
I don’t understand your question.
March 25, 2016 at 19:30
my number is 2016af53*** ,participated in lottery2017,does this cause a problem?
March 25, 2016 at 20:46
Not at all.
March 27, 2016 at 10:29
when is af387** going to be called for interview
March 27, 2016 at 14:35
A July interview, most likely.
March 29, 2016 at 00:40
Hi Brit! When are you going to publish your prediction for next SA VB? My cn is SA 13xx.
Thanks in advance.
March 29, 2016 at 01:17
I am writing that at this very minute. We won’t see your number become current next month, nor the month after that. You can expect similar increase to last month over the next 2 or 3 months.
March 29, 2016 at 01:42
Ok brit, so, should I be current for hopefully June VB?
March 29, 2016 at 01:47
March 29, 2016 at 02:08
Depends whether you are 1300 or 1399. July might just be possible, but August is more likely…
March 29, 2016 at 02:26
My cn is SA 131x. What are the chances??
March 29, 2016 at 03:07
Good chance – but I can’t be 100% certain.
April 8, 2016 at 08:18
hi brit thanks for your assistance,my cn no. is2016 af29xxx.pls tell me when i get my 2nl,thanks.
April 8, 2016 at 14:23
In about 3 weeks.
April 8, 2016 at 15:33
AS81 please tell me when do you think we will get 2 NL? DS260 submitted early and resubmitted in April 1st According to VB prediction of yours interview will be in June Or July Is it right?
April 8, 2016 at 15:54
I write articles and post links to those articles so that people can read them and I don’t have to answer every individual question.
April 9, 2016 at 09:16
I’m very thankful for all the posts you’ve been putting about DV lottery. I learned a lot from these posts even tough I don’t understand them completely. It was our first Dv lottery participation and my husband won it. It was very exciting at first as well as disappointing when we found out that it is not very easy to be qualified. Right now we are in as situation that we moved to South Korea from Mongolia.My husband was already in Korea before we came. I recently found out that we can unlock our applications and make changes so i did it for my husband and 2 children and resubmitted in April 1st. My husbands residency is not changed only address but rest of our’s changed. So my concern is though I’ve been reading your posts when our interview will be because of some major changes in application. June or July?
April 9, 2016 at 15:39
It depends on your case number.
April 10, 2016 at 04:22
my case number is AS000081xx
April 13, 2016 at 12:25
hi Mr.Britsimon. AS81xx. I realized I missed out 2 addresses that we lived previously. (missed addresses are not in other countries) I already unlock and resubmitted our applications !st April. Due to some major changes we did on DS-260 (derivatives residency was changed ) I don’t think it’s good to unlock DS260 again. What do you think? Is it going to be serious problem or can we tell CO the previous addresses when we have our interview?
April 13, 2016 at 14:48
If they are in the same country don’t worry about it. No need to even mention it at the interview.
May 11, 2016 at 07:06
Hi mr Britsimon
What would be your Prediction for next VB of Africa
May 11, 2016 at 15:24
I don’t have one.
August 24, 2016 at 16:43
Brit Is case no:2017AS68xx safe to wait?
Please Brit should I have to wait patiencly or work as usual before dv?
Its making me anexious because in your some post i found this no is safe and in other post not safe.
Please brit make me clear and i want to get ride off from this.
August 24, 2016 at 20:44