DV2015 Response late low???
A gentleman from Morocco by the name of Mouhamed received an email from KCC in the last couple of days. He didn’t think he was a winner. The email advised him to check the Entry Status page explaining the system glitch that occurred in the first couple of days had meant some people may not realize they were winners. He logged in to check today and, sure enough – he found he was a winner! He is from Morocco with a AF29XXX case number – so he will be current in a few days time! He will submit his DS260 in the next couple of days and meets all the qualifications – so that will be a happy ending.
However, it is interesting for everyone else. The fact that KCC are emailing people who they think should have responded shows they may not have had the response rate they normally expect. That could be because of the system glitch as in this case or perhaps the DS260 was off putting in some way. Either way – it could be significant for high case numbers. If the response rate is low the highest case number at the end might go higher. We don’t know for sure – but it would help explain the enormous number of cases showing as “at NVC” in the CEAC file (along with the DS260 backlog).
People getting these reminder emails only have a few weeks to respond by submitting their DS260. If they delay until March they probably don’t have enough time to get processed. So – it is too soon to start celebrating in the street – but this could be a big help to some of the high case numbers….
By the way – why is this a big deal. Well each year they select too many people. In previous years they have selected around 100k and hand out about 50k visas. Many of the 100K never responded because they had a change of mind or couldn’t afford the process or whatever. In DV2014 and DV2015 they selected far more winners – 140k in 2014 and 125k in 2015. There are not enough visas for all, so the response rate being lower would cause the highest case number that goes current to be increased.
Just goes to show – there are many twists and turns in every DV lottery year!
February 5, 2015 at 00:25
Please make the final cn for Asia higher, my cn AS13,XXX so risky
February 5, 2015 at 00:41
If it were up to me, everyone would get a visa!
February 5, 2015 at 00:49
Should i even bother continuing this journey? Sometimes i feel hopeless sometimes i feel amped, if you were me what would you do with that big of a cn?
If my cn was <14,000 i wouldn't even bother filling out the DS260
February 5, 2015 at 00:52
Since you have filled it out you may as well wait and see what happens!
February 5, 2015 at 03:03
hi @ajay ghale are u a DV 2015 winner from Nepal. ur case number seems to be very high.
February 6, 2015 at 04:48
Nah, I’m from Indonesia actually
February 5, 2015 at 00:31
I Know, right!?!? I saw your exchange with him on facebook and was like this DV movie has so many twists and turns. Lol. Hopefully this does end up helping high CNs. What an awesome feat though for Mouhamed. I’m glad he wont be loosing out on this. Good job Simon!
February 5, 2015 at 00:40
He will have a good story to tell!
February 5, 2015 at 00:59
Brit, please say that Moroccan winner was me lol 😎
Agree. every fiscal year has it’s own errors and glitches 😉
February 5, 2015 at 02:00
February 5, 2015 at 04:32
This is very interesting! Indeed DV lottery process is full of interesting stuff!
February 5, 2015 at 08:31
HI Britsimon, Thanks for a very informative Blog! Above you mention the ds260’s probably should be submitted by Mid March in order to be processed. Are you going under the assumption that the ds260 processing time will remain the same and they won’t catch up? How would the non response affect the DV2015 if they do manage to catchup with the ds260 say in teh next month to two?Thanks in advance. Gareth
February 5, 2015 at 15:15
So far they have been moving month for month, another month passes and the processed cases are a month further on. I expected that to change by now, on the assumption that most DS260s would have been submitted in the first few months after May. However, we have not seen that yet. If we do see that, then it will push back the latest submission time beyond March, and therefore reduce the people that get caught out.
February 5, 2015 at 11:08
It is just supposition. It doesn’t mean that all big cn will be current
February 5, 2015 at 15:16
Agreed on both points.
February 5, 2015 at 11:58
They are catching up – there are some 2nd-half-October cases, processed already.
February 5, 2015 at 15:18
I haven’t seen any reports of that, but it could be possible. Whether it means they are catching up or not depends on the volume of October cases they include in the next batch. Not all Ds260s require the same processing time….
February 5, 2015 at 12:32
This is such an exciting development.
February 5, 2015 at 13:16
Vanya1054, how do you know the 2nd half-October submitted cases are already processed? Is it your guesstimate or evidenced stuff?
February 5, 2015 at 15:13
It’s as evidenced as we can rely on the info posted on the forums. I’ve read on the EU forums about both cases.
February 7, 2015 at 07:23
Somebody with 27-october submission date from EU called KCC yesterday and got the answer that it has not processed yet so it may be 1st-half october cases which will take the april interviews. I hope for my case to be involved for May interviews by 3 nov submission date.
February 5, 2015 at 15:59
my case number from asia cn 10471 when i can rceive the 2nd letter?
February 5, 2015 at 16:29
June or July
February 5, 2015 at 17:12
thanks but what is meaning of this message from KCC
rememer I’m from asia
i send for KCC about date of interview is answered to my message . is that mean i’ll receive the 2nd letter in couple of days coming . thanks
Your forms have been received and pending further embassy review for the continuation of your visa processing. Interviews are scheduled numerically based on case numbers that have completed processing. KCC is currently scheduling visa numbers for your region for the month of March. Please refer to the visa bulletin at http://www.travel.state.gov to locate the current numbers being processed. This bulletin is updated after the 15th day of each month.
Interviews for the DV 2015 program will begin in October 2014 and conclude on September 30, 2015. KCC cannot provide information as to when an interview date may become available for your case. Appointments are scheduled numerically according to assigned case numbers. The Department of State designates how many interviews will be scheduled each month according to visa availability. You may refer to the visa bulletin at http://www.travel.state.gov for the list of current numbers beginning August 2014. This information is updated on the 15th day of each month thereafter.
February 5, 2015 at 18:08
It simply means your DS260 is fully processed. If your case number is already current you may be in the April interviews and the 2NL for those will go out in 2 to 3 weeks time.
February 5, 2015 at 18:09
I just realized your case number is not current – so you will have to wait for interview until June or July as I responded earlier.
February 5, 2015 at 18:29
thanks mr.BritSimon appreciate U effort
February 5, 2015 at 20:23
Hi BritSimon, thanks for all these informations about the diversity lottery this is very helpful.
1) My number is low EU38***. Am I correct expecting an interview in August?
2) Do you know if it’s legal to start a greencard sponsorship via a company while being processed in the diversity lottery?
February 5, 2015 at 20:58
1. August most likely, perhaps September.
2. It is legal yes, but since the employment based Green Card process is costly (for the employer) and a longer process, it seems like an odd thing to do. Nothing “illegal” though.
February 6, 2015 at 03:53
February 6, 2015 at 06:02
How it is going to influence the electronic form DS260 on high case numbers comparing with last year? What I mean is that now it is easier and cheaper (free) to send required information using this new form. Does it mean that more people will send this form and the maximum case number that will win visa will decrease?
February 6, 2015 at 06:29
Well that is one possible view – but it seems some people found the process harder (because there were none with prior experience of completing that form).
February 19, 2015 at 00:20
I filled DS260 19 May
And bec my CN not current yet
I checked it says at NVC
Why it even not change till now even i filled it early
February 19, 2015 at 01:19
It will not change until you your form is process, you are current and KCC schedule the interview….
February 19, 2015 at 03:21
Thank you so much for your usual help
It rely helps to understand
February 9, 2015 at 19:09
Thank you for all the great job your are doing.
A similar case was posted today on our blog: a lady from Algeria by the name of Sarah who checked on May and found she wasn’t slected, has been contacted by KCC on February 2nd, and discovered she is now selected. Her CN is 36xxx.
For sure, these guys will have a good story to tell !
February 9, 2015 at 20:13
February 17, 2015 at 12:57
Thank you for all the great job 🙂
Our number is a little bit high : AF820XX. Do you think we will have a slightly better chance with this ?
February 17, 2015 at 14:10
Well that is the point of the article, but 82xxx is still probably too high.
February 17, 2015 at 21:47
My cn is AF000019.. and i submitted my ds260 form on the 18th october,when is my 2nd letter due?we are couples
February 17, 2015 at 22:25
Because you submitted late your 2NL might come in the next week (interview in in April) or possibly in 5 weeks from now (interview in May).
February 22, 2015 at 15:33
Thank you very much for all this information.
My CN is AF52XXX and I have submitted my form on the 19th of May.
When should I expect my interview??
February 22, 2015 at 15:40
Probably around July.
February 23, 2015 at 21:31
Therefore I should expect my 2NL in June right? Thanks again
February 23, 2015 at 22:45
February 23, 2015 at 17:39
Merci beaucoup pour toutes ces informations.
Mon CN est AF62XXX et je ai présenté ma forme sur le 02 JUIN.
J’ai la chance pour être progammé?? Si Oui
Quand dois-je me attendre mon entrevue ??
February 23, 2015 at 18:29
Yes you have a chance – probably interview around August.
February 23, 2015 at 21:26
February 23, 2015 at 22:45
February 23, 2015 at 23:55
I see you showing off your french Simon…i totally see you…LOL
February 24, 2015 at 00:26
That is about the limit of my French that I am prepared to admit!
February 25, 2015 at 10:19
>> The email advised him to check the Entry Status page explaining the system glitch that occurred in the first couple of days had meant some people may not realize they were winners.
That’s actually what happens with my case.
I’d checked at May 1 or May 2 (don’t remember exactly). And I was not selected.
Then with my wife we applied second time in October 2014 and I just tried second time to check at dvlottery.state.gov our previous submission — and apparently I won!
February 25, 2015 at 17:05
Awesome!!! I wonder how many more were like you….
April 15, 2015 at 15:58
From Italy cn 44,600
Do I have a hope? I am so sad
I saw Europe is going up
April 16, 2015 at 00:55
You are at the end of a very long line…. with very little chance – I am sorry.
April 10, 2018 at 11:21
i need to ask this- did you make DV18 calculations with these unexpected low response rates of DV15 and then concluded to 33k? That would explain something…. Or did you consider these DV15 response rate as an “exeption” to the rule and rather worked with DV16 and 17 response rates?
April 10, 2018 at 14:21
I have told you before! Rxy – it is VERY frustrating when you keep repeating old questions!
April 10, 2018 at 15:01
how is that an old question when I just now found out that the response rate in 2015 was significantly lower then in other years? Also, I feel in DV15 you said response will grow after the U2 countries maxed out, and this year you said it will shrink… I just find these things irritating.
April 10, 2018 at 16:18
You asked me the method I used before. It is in the original article but you asked before and I told you. The question you are asking above is answered if you just consider my original answer.
The article above was published in February 2015 and has three question marks in the title. It was a discussion point – not a final finding. However, YOU HAVE THE DATA for 2015 and could compare to 2017. You have the same data I do. Have you bothered to perform the simple calculations????
2015 NR rate is 48%. 2017 is 45% – not hugely different.
2015 derivative rate is 2.21 whereas 2017 is 2.3. Again, different – but not hugely different.
Sorry you find these things irritating. I have warned you MANY TIMERS that this is not a precise science and that time reveals more understanding. I believe I told you to take a break for a while after you were unnecessarily rude.
You must have noticed that I have been telling people “wait and see” even with cases in the high 20’s, and certainly in the 30’s. The next VB will be out within days.