Last month, I posted this information explaining how to predict the next VB. Most of what I said would happen did happen, so I won’t repeat the explanation again. I will just speak to the conclusion for each region.
I managed to capture the CEAC data immediately after the 2NLs, so I got a good count of the “in Transit” cases.
EU and OC.
The increase last month were a work of fiction. KCC may not realize that we can see the cases in CEAC, or they know some of us know but want to pretend to the rest of the world. The highest allocated number in EU is 24517 and in OC it is 959. So – it was complete nonsense to increase the VB numbers to 28000 and 1050 respectively. Those two regions are current – there is no doubt of that – much as KCC would like to pretend that they are not current.
There was some speculation that these two regions will have had a second draw – but I don’t believe that has happened. There are no cases that have come forward as new winners, and the CEAC data still shows the same highest numbers even after the 2NLs have gone out.
Africa had nearly 2000 in transit cases (that being the number of cases scheduled for interviews). At the response rate this will need around 3000/3200 case numbers (allowing for some backlog cases) to go current in the next VB – which will mean increasing the region to about 34500 to 35500 (for a safety, I’ll add plus or minus 500, making the range 34000 to 36000. That is in line with the roughly 7000 increase I mentioned last month.
As I mentioned last month, Asia is harder to predict because there are two numbers to consider. Asia as a whole and Nepal on its own. I was accurate last month on Asia as a whole but my guess was too high for Nepal. That is because KDU embassy has more control over their scheduling than a typical embassy. So – at I mentioned last month, Asia will probably be in the high 7000 range, possibly low 8000s. Nepal is harder to predict, but probably early 6000 range.
The pace will increase at around the same as last month – 100 or 125.
Now, as logical and scientific as we can be with predicting, the only numbers that really count are the ones that KCC release in the Visa Bulletin. KCC have more information than I have access to and they are in the driving seat. The DV process teaches patience – so ultimately we have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully though this post will at least give you a ROUGH IDEA of what to expect over the next couple of months, and I will update you as I get more information.
March 29, 2016 at 02:30
March 29, 2016 at 03:28
March 29, 2016 at 03:32
Thanks,is that means asai final number will be below 8000?
March 29, 2016 at 05:38
Where does it say that?
March 29, 2016 at 04:18
That’s very good information on the progress. Iam happy to note that my case number AF 45*** is about to be reached soon if the same trend continues. Thanks Brit Simons
March 29, 2016 at 05:51
What you think about my number AS95XX.
And we still remain 4 visa builtan .
Is it safe or risky.
March 29, 2016 at 06:24
March 29, 2016 at 06:44
Need your help again.
In the 1NL they set the interview location to Amman/Jordan, I changed this to be in Beirut/Lebanon in DS-260. Yesterday I phoned KCC, they said that my interview will be in June. but they told me also that the interview location is Amman/Jordan. 🙁
I am in Damascus/Syria, the US embassy in Damascus is closed, and it is impossible to be able to travel to Amman. especially that I am a [Palestinian-Syrian, I have a Syrian Travel Document not a Syrian passport] and I have mentioned this in DS-260. The Jordanian Authorities does not allow us (Palestinians-Syrians) to enter Jordan.
I asked KCC on how can I solve this, I mean change the interview location to Beirut they said there is no way …..
I am stuck now, it was a hope for my family, I do not know what should I do…..
March 29, 2016 at 06:58
You can change the embassy, but it is two step process. It is a pity you called KCC without checking with me first, as now what I am about to tell you might appear contrived.
Anyway. First you unlock your form and change your current address to one in Beirut. Then you resubmit your form and email KCC asking them to change your interview location. Of course – that assumes that you can provide an address in Beirut which will be your place of residence.
March 29, 2016 at 09:15
Thank you Simon,
I have a relative living in Beirut, However, if I do this, I am afraid that they will ask for a police certificate from Lebanon authorities in the interview, which I can not get because I am not a resident.
March 30, 2016 at 02:25
Check the reciprocity page for the Lebanon to see their expectation about police reports.
March 30, 2016 at 17:51
Should I unlock & update the address for me (principal) & for all my family members???
March 30, 2016 at 19:11
March 29, 2016 at 07:13
That is helpful and at the same time gives hope to some of us. I have learned a lot from the DV process, and I remain positive. Thanks once again Mr. Brit for your work.
March 29, 2016 at 08:13
Why this decline in Asia, we know that Nepal will be low and we hope to be the 8000 Asia
March 29, 2016 at 08:21
What do u think of Af 46000 case number ? do u think its safe in accordance with your predictions and information gathering.
March 30, 2016 at 02:26
Should be OK – wait and see.
March 29, 2016 at 10:05
Hi Brit, My CN is 2016AF44XXX, I submitted my DS260 forms on May 25, 2016. Am I safe ? And if so…..when should I expect 2NL including interview? Thanks!
March 30, 2016 at 02:24
You should be safe – 2 or 3 months more for the 2NL.
March 29, 2016 at 10:19
Sorry…I meant May 25, 2015. That was a typo error.
March 29, 2016 at 11:58
Always thankful for the selfless work and dedication guv’nor Simon… an odd question : can the quota for AF region climb up from last year’s 21845 to maybe around 23000 for this FY? Blessings galore, thanks.
March 30, 2016 at 02:23
That should be possible, yes.
March 29, 2016 at 12:21
Pls simon will it be late to create a ds260 form for my husband. My cn no is 38***.I want him to accompany me .
March 30, 2016 at 02:23
You have time if you do that now.
March 29, 2016 at 13:31
Hi uncle simon! My CN is 30xxx which means I am probabaly going to be current in few weeks. But my probleme is I just receive my agronomy degree yesterday so I dont know if it will be safe to not update it on my ds260 forms and to mention the new degree during the intervew? Thank u and xcuse me for the bad english because I am a senegalease french-speaking student
March 30, 2016 at 02:22
You have time to update that right now – although you could also just present that at the interview.
March 29, 2016 at 14:13
Hae mr Brit,thanks for your continuous updates and advice.my cb is Af 4849X.Do i stand a chance for an interview according to your predictions
March 30, 2016 at 02:20
A chance yes – but I cannot say “certain” or quantify the chance percentage.
March 29, 2016 at 14:22
I will be current for June in AF region. I was wondering if you can help answer the below:-
1. do you know when they usually give you the dates you interview? How long after you get 2NL? I live in the US but doing CP and need to know when I should head over for medicals and all.
2. Since im doing CP though I have lived in the US past 12years, do I need to go with a copy of US police clearance or its something that they have in their system?
3. Is there a list somewhere of all the documents I need to gather?
March 30, 2016 at 02:20
1. You will get a 2NL about 6 weeks before the interview.
2. You don’t need a police report for USA
3. Yes – read the instructions given to you on the letter that said you were selected.
March 29, 2016 at 15:26
Issu+AP+ready+transfor= 2568 from KDU upto 5525 can it reach limit next two vb ?
March 29, 2016 at 21:07
Yes it is possible since not all Nepalese are processed in KDU embassy.
March 29, 2016 at 16:08
Your last prediction concerning Asia was 7800. Do you think it’ll possibly be more than that?
March 29, 2016 at 21:06
Possibly. That’s why I said so above.
March 29, 2016 at 17:34
Thank you very very much dear simon. Please my cn is af322## now and thanks to you great predictions i am sure that i will be current in june.please i have a police records date on 24/03/2016 so do you think its ok or should i ask for a new one .thank you
March 29, 2016 at 21:05
Should be OK.
March 29, 2016 at 17:35
Do you know how many applications there are per country, South Africa in particular. I can see how many are being processed and how many are in transit, issued etc but not hiw many applications there were in the first place. Very helpful site. Thx so much
March 29, 2016 at 21:04
The selectees per country was published in the June Visa bulletin last year. The numbers shown include all family members.
March 29, 2016 at 19:55
My original dv confirmation has been stollen and the unfortunate part about my situation the Internet cafe at which I play, was the one who provided an email to be used during that time.
After the completion of the ds260 form my original confirmation got stollen, and I have receive an email that I have update available which is my schedule letter according to many but cannot access it……
Please help me out Brit
March 29, 2016 at 20:57
Yopu can use the “lost confirmation number” link on the ESC page.
March 30, 2016 at 07:32
They are asking for an email, and the email provided during that time was that of the internet where we played. Now d cafe is no longer existing, and they only give us the compnfirmation page which has no email of theirs on it.
March 30, 2016 at 15:28
You have to know that email – there is no other way to access your ESC page otherwise. You need to be more careful with your things!
The only thing you can now do is call or email KCC and see if they will give you the appointment schedule.
March 29, 2016 at 20:21
If the quota for africa is the same as last year what case number can we reach?
March 29, 2016 at 20:55
We are not even at the halfway point for the year yet – so we can’t predict that – and even if we try we can’t be precise. You will have to wait and see.
March 30, 2016 at 01:14
hi mr simon Appreciating your kind cooperation with us , i feel happy with AF region and i wish i hope the end cut off comes with CURRENT
my Greetings also to your sweet daughter Sofia
March 30, 2016 at 03:20
I can’t know about why nepal expected since initial VB and iran is not expect still however the number of selectee of Iranian more than Nepalese.
March 30, 2016 at 05:41
Dear Brit, can we check response rate of the individual country?
March 30, 2016 at 06:46
To an extent you can, but why?
April 1, 2016 at 02:21
It may give an exact final cut off value for countries having high selectee.
April 1, 2016 at 02:57
No – it doesn’t work like that…
March 30, 2016 at 06:59
how to start dv 2017 lottery
March 30, 2016 at 07:12
Assuming you have entered. Wait to see if you win.
March 30, 2016 at 12:39
Hi Brit,I won DV2016 as single and I added my wife and her two kids.we want for in tnterview in January and we was put on AP under section 221.I want to know our chances of getting Visa and do you think how long will it take us.because all our original decuments was taken from us,only our passport was given back to us.
March 30, 2016 at 15:12
You haven’t told me enough for me to even guess why you were on AP, and I know nothing about you our your case. So – I cannot estimate your chances/time.
March 30, 2016 at 14:46
My cn AF 4757*. What’s your prediction on my case. Will I get an interview.
How about if I change my interview location now coz am going back to my country next month.
And my wedding is planned for December this year.
What’s your advice on this coz I filled the form as single.
Thanks for your time. Blessings.
March 30, 2016 at 15:07
You have a good chance of getting an interview.
You have time to change location (you do that by unlocking, changing address, then emailing KCC to ask them to change the embassy).
My advice would have been to get married now.
March 30, 2016 at 16:21
good, I wonder if there is any article on what are the diseases which can deny the visa.
March 30, 2016 at 19:14
No need to wonder – you only had to use the search function on my site to find this article…
March 30, 2016 at 18:51
hello brit, i hope healing for your wife.
Please, do you think good luk for my
cas AF535**, and thank you.
March 30, 2016 at 19:11
Your case number is in the highest 850 case numbers. So – I cannot say that is safe – there is some risk. You simply have to wait and see.
March 30, 2016 at 19:41
Ok thank you
March 30, 2016 at 20:07
hi mr simon can you please to clear the point that you are answered to musrajj your case number is in the highest 850 case numbers this is first time you answered like this
March 30, 2016 at 22:07
He gave me a fairly close clue of his real number. Instead of 53XXX (53000 to 53999) he said 535XX (53500 to 53599). So – I checked the CEAC file that anyone can find on my site and located roughly where his case fell in the file. That way, I can say how many cases are after him. You can do the same for your own case. You can also calculate how many people will respond (at 60% of the cases) and how many selectees there will be (at the “matured derivative rate of 2.25 family members per case). That clear enough?
March 30, 2016 at 20:40
Hi Brit again
My number is AS71xx, expect my number will be current next month and the interview is in June … My question:
1- i am Syrian , but living in Saudi Arabia since 23 years and never stayed in Syria since that time for more than 2 months per year and my family members as well. Last time any of us had visited our country was 4 or 5 years ago and the visits were short as said for holidays.
In this case, do we need to submit a police certificate from Syria or the ones from Saudi Arabia where we live are OK?
2- my eldest daughter is now studying in France since last September and she has a student resident visa valid for 1 year till end of September , she will end her study by the end of May and come back to Saudi Arabia. does she need to submit this police report for her 8 months stay in France ?
3- also, she lived 9-10 months per year in 2013/2014 and 2014 in Lebanon where she was studying … Does she need to submit also a police certificate from Lebanese authorities ?
Thank you very much
March 30, 2016 at 22:03
1. If you lived in your home country at age 16 or above you need the police report from that country along with other countries where you have lived for at least 1 year.
2. Not technically no.
3. Again, not technically. However, COs have been known to ask for a police cert where someone was in a country for just under a year.
March 31, 2016 at 01:16
Thank you very much for your answers mr , simon ya now you cleared enough
March 31, 2016 at 01:23
sir, i attended interview in KDU without medical report since it pending for further check up.passport was returned with a paper in which medical report needed is written.i am on AP.does passport return mean refusal?what happens in this case ?
March 31, 2016 at 02:28
Your case will be on AP until the embassy sees the cleared medical.
March 31, 2016 at 09:04
inorder to get police in certificate in saudi you need frist to get a letter from the US embassy then attest it in the ministry of foreign affair and then submit to the police sector. after i get the certificate from the police should i attest it from the ministry of foreign affairs?
March 31, 2016 at 15:07
Check with them (ministry of foreign affairs) – as it is a local procedure.
March 31, 2016 at 13:34
Hi dear brit please i was living in italy from 2008 to 2010 and come back to my country and never been again in italy so my brother who still live there got the police records for me and has send it to me its writen no pending charges (carichi pendenti) but its writen only the date on wich this certificate has been issued i mean not for example from 2008 to 2010 . Is it ok please and wish you anderstand my quastion
March 31, 2016 at 14:43
It is OK. It means you have never had charges – not specific to that period of time.
March 31, 2016 at 15:45
Thank you very much i was afraid that the co will ask me about a police records with the date from 2008 to 2010.really i dont find words to say how much you are helpful for me and all poeple.thank you again
April 12, 2016 at 00:24
My CN is 318xx which months did u predict my interview
April 12, 2016 at 01:07
The information on this page relates to the upcoming VB – for June interviews.
March 31, 2016 at 15:12
Hello, Just going through the ceac data trying to figure out when I will be getting 2NL..
cases between the last Cutoff and my case number Af 356xx are 3181cases. Am like 80 percent sure 2NL will be in the month of May, 20 % month of June.
What I didn’t understand in your prediction 3200 cases inclusive of backlog roughly comes to 36000 case number., But counting physically there are roughly 3181 cases upto my case number without backlog cases
March 31, 2016 at 15:16
You are ignoring the response rate. Around 45% of the cases have not responded.
March 31, 2016 at 15:31
Hi britsimon i went to italy for one month course, and return back home, do i need police clearance from italy
March 31, 2016 at 16:36
According to the instructions, no.
March 31, 2016 at 16:26
Hello Simon, another pestering question. From your analysis, predictions and taking into consideration the probability extra visas from other regions, do you think it’s prudent for us in AF with CNs of 55 series to prepare our interview documents or we just fold our belongings and look for plan B? Just an honest outlook….. Many regards sir.
March 31, 2016 at 16:51
That is such a tough question.
Mathematically, there was enough quota last year to exceed 55000. However, they stopped at 50000 because (I believe) they left it too late to interpret the no show rate or take the no show rate into account when scheduling. I thought they might adjust for that this year, but I am not seeing evidence of that – they seem to be sticking with the month to month pace based on embassy availability. So – I can calculate mathematically – but I cannot predict how KCC will behave. Really – as you have heard me say before – the only prudent action is “wait and see”.
March 31, 2016 at 17:26
Thanks for the honest answer Simon…. it’s actually a catch 22 situation. Our high CNs are like wild cards in this year’s DV Lottery. Hopefully we pray the KCC guys will be more humane and not lock us out of the party. LOL.
March 31, 2016 at 17:35
There will be far few disappointed people this year than last year – but that would be cold comfort to the few who get left out….
March 31, 2016 at 17:48
My Honest Opinion, AF might go current in the last Visa Bulletin July from left over Visas. If not then I think AF Quota might go way past 23k may be better than last year, but that’s just a guess Or Viseversa..All in All no one can come up with a perfect Answer. As brit said we just have to wait and see. I wish you all the best Bro.
March 31, 2016 at 18:06
They can’t leave too much to the last minute, the embassies have a max capacity for DV interviews in any one month.
March 31, 2016 at 18:47
Hopefully miracles do happen and they might increase the pace in the last 4 VBs…. as the Englishmen say ” there’s light at the end of a tunnel”. Thanks a lot Simon.
March 31, 2016 at 20:47
Hello there Brit!
Im just wanting to know if you can provide some info on what happens if you don’t have all your documents in time for the interview, as unfortunately it look like my police certificate and my long form birth certificate wont be ready in time for my interview. I do have the shorter birth certificate, although i know that is not the one they want. I just thought it was better than having nothing.
I know the case will be put on AP, but is there a time frame in which you have to send the consulate the documents or do you send them as soon as they are available, and will the interviewer say that I have been approved, pending those documents or will I get no indication on the day?
March 31, 2016 at 21:31
You will be placed on AP. You cannot take anything for granted until they have received the documents and approved the case. Try to do that well within the calendar month of the original interview, otherwise you can expect a delay after you supply the missing documents.
April 1, 2016 at 13:38
I got police clearance November 2015, cn 3888*. can it still be use during interview and when will I be called? please. greetings to your daughter.
April 1, 2016 at 18:27
I would suggest getting a more update to date police cert once you get the 2NL – although you might be able to use the one you have.
April 1, 2016 at 21:50
Thanks Mr Brit for the updates. I was just wondering out loud if u can provide any insight as to when some one with CN 4052* will fall within the next VB. Thanks
April 1, 2016 at 23:16
Probably July interviews, possibly August.
April 1, 2016 at 21:56
Thanks Brit for the information. How many visa bulletins do we have left for the 2016 dv lottery program ?
April 1, 2016 at 23:16
April, May, June, July – 4.
April 1, 2016 at 22:06
Correction , it’s *CN AF0004052*
April 2, 2016 at 07:31
how much time doesnt it take at the immigration office once you reach the first stop so that you can schedule your second flight accordingly.
April 2, 2016 at 14:50
No less than 3 hours, 4 is better.
April 2, 2016 at 09:25
Thanks Mr Brit. I was thinking we have only three visa bulletins left. But now I know it is remaining 4. I am AF45000.
April 2, 2016 at 09:29
Today is April 2 but the visa bulletin has not changed to “coming soon” yet. Do you know what the reason is? Has it ever hapened before?
April 2, 2016 at 14:49
Good grief. RELAX!
Yes it is normal….
April 2, 2016 at 10:18
Hi i think maybe yesterday kcc was not working.today and tomorow its weekend so it will change on the next week