*********** UPDATE *************
I think we have the max numbers per region. Obviously there is a chance that these will be corrected, but at this point here is the findings. Thanks to those that helped!
REGION MAX NUMBERS
**** End of update – the text below shows the method used to get these numbers ****
Right now I am spending some time on finding the max case numbers for each region. From those max case numbers we can estimate how many people are selectees (after the 2nd draw), and people can figure out how high their case is compared to others.
The process of finding the max case number is this a manual, boring process. It is trial and error. I used to be able to extract the data programmatically, but I cannot do that at the moment since the government altered the website (adding the CAPTCHA). So – if anyone wants to help in the manual process I would appreciate the help.
What I do is this:-
I guess or estimate the number I think will exist for a region and enter that number. If I get a hit I increase the number until I don’t get a hit. To know when a range has no numbers I have to enter about 10 to 20 consecutive numbers, because there are holes (gaps) between the numbers. I have explained why in previous posts.
Once I have a low number HIT and a higher number MISS (probably a few hundred numbers apart), I simply try and refine the numbers closer together. I did this for EU region already.
So for EU I started at about 30500 (got hits) and at 31000 I found no hits. I tried 30700 range and found no hits, so I knew the number was between 30500 and 30700. I refined that further and eventually found the max EU number to be 2017EU30622.
I am 99% sure that is the highest number, although in previous years I have seen a few “anomalies”where a number will be higher by hundreds but all on its own. Those anomalies are “mistakes” in the draw process.
I am tracking my progress at the spreadsheet below. I am moving on to OC region (as I have estimates for OC and SA).
AS and AF regions are more unknown to me – so if people want to help with those I would be delighted.
AS is probably between 10000 and 13000.
AF is probably between 42000 and 45000.
I’ll refine that as we go.
The spreadsheet below is editable, so feel free to add info found with the same process I have described above.
January 1, 2017 at 17:50
Now that we know max case number (incl. 2nd draw), can we guess derivative ratio for Asia??
January 1, 2017 at 18:14
We can get that from previous years. I’ll write up that later.
Why did you ask?
January 1, 2017 at 19:27
January 1, 2017 at 19:53
surprisingly the max case number for Asia is lower than previous years. what influence this may have? particularly those cases close to 8000? better chance of getting the 2nl or lower chance?
January 1, 2017 at 20:16
They seem to have selected mainly Nepalese cases in the 2nd draw (as opposed to rest of Asia). The max case number is lower than I expected, but given the gaps created by Nepal and Iran being stopped early it may mean we are missing something. So – I’ll check again.
January 1, 2017 at 20:20
great, will be looking forward to see updates about ASIA.
January 2, 2017 at 21:45
My Sister-in-law is EU26XXX. Received second draw notification and submitted application in October. When is the estimate of her interview time do you think?
January 3, 2017 at 00:00
April to June.
January 3, 2017 at 16:39
May be some of selectees does’t yet submit their ds260 form?
January 3, 2017 at 17:42
If the DS260 is not submitted, the case still appears in CEAC as “At NVC”. But yes – there are certainly some DS260s that will still be submitted over the next 5 or 6 months.
February 15, 2017 at 07:52
How do I confirm I have submitted the DS260?
February 15, 2017 at 14:02
The DS260 says COMPLETED.
January 3, 2017 at 18:39
HAPPY NEW YEAR MR BRIT!
-For africa higest case No 42000 -45000. Im from Ethiopia CN2017AF2430X, Isubmitted ds260 24 may 2016 in which approximate manth will My 2NL released?
January 3, 2017 at 18:47
I still don’t know any more than the last time you asked.
January 3, 2017 at 22:23
Hi Mrs Brit thank you sooo much for the work that you have done. i have one question please my uncle case number is AF31400 do you think he will be current in the March visa bulletin?
January 3, 2017 at 23:02
I don’t know. THe VB will be published in about 1 week…
January 5, 2017 at 08:41
What is the maximum case number for second letter , from Nepal.
January 5, 2017 at 13:35
I don’t know.
January 5, 2017 at 21:13
Mr simon !
Can u estimate a date(which month) of my case AF415**. Thank u for ur huge efforts.
January 6, 2017 at 01:20
No. I am not predicting. Wait and see.
January 16, 2017 at 17:32
We almost hav the same case mouhssine
Mine is Af414**.probably it’s June or July.
January 9, 2017 at 03:41
hello there i fill ds 260 on May 24/2016 and it takes over 6 monthes almost 9 monthes my status in CEAC at NVC.why the ds can not submitted to other status?? so am worried.case no.AF279** from Ethiopia
January 9, 2017 at 05:49
Read this to understand.
January 13, 2017 at 17:43
Could that means case numbers higher than AF40000 are in risk to not be current??
January 13, 2017 at 19:59
That is not the topic of this post.
January 16, 2017 at 05:23
isn’t there any way to bypass captcha so that we can make our search fast and easy?
January 16, 2017 at 05:46
January 17, 2017 at 10:40
Hello dear Mr. Simon
i just checked my case number on CEAC. turns out that i’m a AP now. thanks to you, now i know that my region is not maxed yet in numbers. but there’s a problem.
it says that :
Under the U.S. Immigration and Nationality Act, Immigrant Visas for “Diversity Visas” cannot be issued
after September 30th of the year in which you were selected to apply for a Diversity Visa.
and this is my status :
Case Creation Date: 26-Oct-2015
Status Updated Date: 16-Nov-2016
it’s freaking me out. would u please tell me if i still have any hope?
thank you very much
January 17, 2017 at 15:01
You have until September 30th 2017.
January 18, 2017 at 05:14
ow damn. thank you thank you thank you
January 18, 2017 at 16:25
GETTING 2NL letter for the case number AS8150 is higher or low.I asked your earlier but i didnt get my answer.
January 18, 2017 at 16:27
I answered. You didn’t check.
February 10, 2017 at 04:21
Hello Mr. Simon, my friend and his family won the dv 2017 and they have a kid. They really want her to travel alone, but due to financial problem it can’t work. And on there ds 260, they said that she was going with them. They are now decided for her to stay at the later date. Is she need to do medical also? do they have to open the ds 260 and put it there at the later date or inform the consular on the interview date?
Thanks very much for your afford
February 10, 2017 at 04:30
How much later are they thinking she would go?
February 10, 2017 at 05:57
They want to go and fill in for her later, after they have established
February 15, 2017 at 14:03
I submitted my ds260 in June 19 2016 and I printed my confirmation page
My case num is 414**.
But everytime I check my visa statue it’s still at NVC hope there’s no problem with it
What can I do sir?
February 25, 2017 at 02:35
Thank you for all your amzing work you have done! I am EU16xxx and did my fingerprints 2 weeks ago. Any idea when my interview will be (I have looked at the timeline in the forum but there are only a few cases with my FO (Saint Paul, MN).
February 25, 2017 at 15:26
September 2, 2017 at 22:06
Hi Britt, I’m from South America and my case number is 21xx, lower than the number you calculated for SA, does this mean I have lower chances? I’ve noticed that on the last few years it has become current.. Can you please explain to me?
September 2, 2017 at 23:09
This explains the situation:
September 10, 2017 at 06:36
When will you be able to do this for DV 2018?
September 10, 2017 at 14:03
November 22, 2017 at 02:58
I see that in 2017 the max of Asia number case as you confirm is 2017AS9087 but i see on latest of Bulletin for Apr-2017 is only AS5500 and from May-2017 it put “Current”. so what it is meant?
Or meant that from AS5501 will not receive 2NL from KCC?
sorry if i have some confuse and please kindly confirm me about this concern.
November 22, 2017 at 06:15
It meant all AS numbers were eligible for interview
November 22, 2017 at 06:17
Thanks Simon for your support