So here are the numbers for April interviews. Pretty good progress for all regions with the obvious exception of EU. Those of you that watched my video about the CEAC data analysis will already know why that has happened – backlog cases from the previous months. To understand better, watch that here.
|Region||All DV Chargeability Areas Except|
Those Listed Separately
|AFRICA||41,000||Except: Egypt 30,700|
|ASIA||15,800||Except: Iran 9,800|
|NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS)||16|
and the CARIBBEAN
Those that are current, and have forms processed early enough, they can expect their 2NL in about 1 to 2 weeks from now. This is the same every month. VB from the 8th to the 15th of each month (although more recently it has been published a few days later – around the 17th/18th), and 2NLs in the second half of the month. For the last few months there have been 2NLs sent in two main batches, some early (around the 15th to 20th) and then some in the later part of the month. I would expect the 2NLs to have all been sent by the end of this month. The end of the month really means THE END OF THE MONTH. Please don’t waste my time later this month asking about 2NLs. Please. They can be sent right up until the last day of the month.
To those new to looking at VBs, let me explain what the “except” XXX country means – and you can also read this post on how to read the visa bulletin.
Processing is spread out over the full year. You can see the progress of the two previous years in this post about basic questions. However, some countries have a high number of selectees and those selectees are concentrated in the lower case numbers. For various reasons, mainly to do with embassy capacity, KCC slow down certain countries as compared to the region. So – in Africa, any case with a case number shown as under the new number can be interviewed but for cases from Egypt, that number is lower. That isn’t a big problem, it just “slows down” those countries a little more than the rest of the region. Since selectees from those countries all have lower case numbers, this slowing down does not present any risk. It does not (at this point) mean they won’t allow all selectees an interview from those countries.
To understand why some countries get lower case numbers, read this article about the lottery draw process.
February 21, 2020 at 13:48
Hi Mr Brit,
a clarification: if (for example) the next EU VB in March arrives at cn 30K, I who am EU 28k, could I receive from today or from March 1 the email of correctly received documents
(already sent in October), and then the 2NLs?
Thanks for your opinion
February 21, 2020 at 20:38
The next VB will be published in mid March. Then 2NLs for cases made current will be sent in late March, but ONLY if those cases have had their documents processed.
February 21, 2020 at 15:07
Hello Mr Brit
EU39xxx is safe?
February 21, 2020 at 20:48
It should be – but wait and see.
February 22, 2020 at 09:11
Hi Mr. Brit
My Case Number is 2020AF00039+++, which has gone current for April interview. I didn’t receive any email which I sent out document in october and Feb, 2020 from KCC . when I called them they told me they didn’t receive my document.my question is , Do I have have time if I have resend from different email in 2/252020? does it have any impact of delay ? what should I do if they don’t receive my email?
February 22, 2020 at 15:31
Well you have no choice but to resend the documents. Follow the instructions here: https://britsimonsays.com/document-procedure-modification/
You won’t get an April interview, probably delayed until June.
February 22, 2020 at 16:35
Thank you Mr.Brits,
What concern me is that I have followed you correctly your advice the link you give me above. I have changed email to send from both my email on February 18 and 21, 2020. when should I have to check with them?
February 22, 2020 at 21:13
They have told you they don’t have your documents – right? So you have to use some care and common sense to make sure they get your documents. Do that.
February 23, 2020 at 07:29
Dear Mr. Brits,
I am so grateful always for your kind service. Can I please contact you for showing or send to what i have sent my documents? because I am thinking I have followed procedure correctly. Just makes me worry. thank you in advance.
February 23, 2020 at 15:22
No. Just follow the instructions.
February 24, 2020 at 16:13
I got today this email
Subject line was ” 2020AF00039+++ Documents Received”
Q1. I just need to wait the 2NL to be sent yes ?
“Congratulations! Our records indicate that you have submitted all required documentation to the Kentucky Consular Center and are ready to be scheduled for an interview when your case number becomes current. Interviews are scheduled numerically based on case numbers that have completed processing.
Interviews for the DV 2020 program will begin in October 2019 and conclude on September 30, 2020. Please refer to the visa bulletin at http://www.travel.state.gov to locate the current numbers being processed. This bulletin is updated after the 15th day of each month. Once an interview date has been scheduled, you will receive notification via email listed on your DS-260 to check http://www.dvlottery.state.gov.
If your case becomes current and you have not received notification to check http://www.dvlottery.state.gov, please contact [email protected] to confirm all of your documents have been received, and you are ready to be scheduled for an interview.”
February 24, 2020 at 20:52
Yep – next step will be the 2NL – probably in March for a May interview.
February 22, 2020 at 18:14
Hello Brit Simon,
I have a question regarding the EU numbers. Looking at the previous years I noticed that EU became current between May and July in 2019 (87,610 selectees), 2017 (83,910 selectees) and 2016 (91,563 selectees) Instead, there were not enough cards in 2018 and 2015 since they had many more selectees (115.968 and125.915 respectively).
This year there are “only” 83.884 selectees and if you consider the newly banned people (1,223 in KYRGYZSTAN and 1,512 in BELARUS), it seems this year may follow the same pattern as 2019,2017 and 2016. Is it something you foresee? I know your answer is “wait and see” in this case, but I am just interested to know your point of view just looking at the numbers. Thanks
February 22, 2020 at 19:06
Brit generally tells that mathematically we are in a good shape. The problem assumed to be in the backlog but Brit recently spoke with KCC and they told him there is no backlog issue. So… we dont know why they increased 200 :D. This might not be the answer you were looking for so wait for Mr Simon’s response.
February 22, 2020 at 20:44
Yes, there is a difference between the mathematical, and the organizational issues.
Mathmatically we can see that there are enough visas for likely demand. However, there are now 5 months remaining to be scheduled and each month has a maximum capacity of interview slots – which is probably 1000 to 1200 slots per month. So there are about 6000 interview slots remaining for the 5 months. There are 8859 real cases above 21200, although not all will want interviews. There will also be some people less than 21200 that have not yet been scheduled. That by the way is why there was such a small increase this month – there had been so few cases scheduled, and when KCC managed to clear the backlog for EU at least, it meant the unscheduled cases from 14k to 21k took almost all of the available interview slots for April. There was no need to increase the next VB number much.
So now the biggest threat to EU cases is not the math, but getting one of the remaining interview slots. We don’t know yet what the response rate will be – but 60 ish percent is pretty likely.
February 22, 2020 at 21:05
Thanks for your reply. Is it 60% of 8859? 5315.
So mathematically there should be enough slots, right? I really don’t undestand. I have chosen to be interviewd in Naples and there are only 220 Italiians selected in DV2020. Assuming that only italians chose Naples, How can the interview slots be a problem?
February 22, 2020 at 22:11
Well first we don’t know if it is 60% – that is a guess. It could be higher or lower. Then we don’t know how many cases under 21200 will also need interviews. And finally 1200 is the MOST I have ever seen in one month for EU – there could be less….
February 22, 2020 at 22:05
does this mean Mr. Brit that Europe will not be current this year and those over 50cases will not be interviewed?
February 22, 2020 at 22:09
It means there is some risk, despite the mathmatics.
February 22, 2020 at 22:24
Thanks for answering my question and sorry, I hope everything goes well?
February 23, 2020 at 13:21
I’m EU26XYZ, documents sent in Nov.19, still in process, asked KCC 2 weeks ago by email, they told me is still early for my case no. So by intuition l knew the VB April would be low, not that low (200) but the VB March was beyond process capacity and now they are slowing down. Based on your data, do you think there is still a chance for May/June interview?
February 23, 2020 at 15:30
We don’t have new data. We won’t have that until the end of the month.
February 24, 2020 at 22:41
Do you think EU27XXX is safe?
and in your opinion, from the next VB, will EU increase numbers?
February 24, 2020 at 23:41
Of course it is.
February 25, 2020 at 00:40
Brit, do you think that EU355** is safe?
February 25, 2020 at 03:54
February 25, 2020 at 15:23
Just quickly question my big brother… i submit my documents last year November but i just find out now that i made mistake on submitting i nevee add 00 for example 2020AF0053…. but i make 2020AF53…. do you think is big mass? Must resend it again or not?
Thank you Sir
February 25, 2020 at 15:32
February 25, 2020 at 15:48
2020AF00039+++ I was introduced by friend of friend that can be sponsor and I have contacted my friend friend. who can help me I-134 and every aspect that he want to help me.
Q1.Is that ok if another person sponsor me on I-134 rather than the person that the green card should be send Ds-260 ?
Thank you sir
February 25, 2020 at 19:38
February 27, 2020 at 14:28
Hello Brit hello everybody
Based on the Ceac which i don’t have access now… how many real case are before and after EU49K ?
Still have chance ?
Thank you for your help
February 27, 2020 at 20:46
I’m too busy to check CEAC for every person that asks. Wait and see how things progress.
February 27, 2020 at 21:33
Yes, thank you.
March 4, 2020 at 04:04
Hi mr Simon, my bother has an interview scheduled for mid April with case num af 00031xxx, one mistake occurred with his place of interview, he was first supposed to be scheduled at Johannesburg South Africa but decided to take have his interview scheduled at Congo, he filled his ds 260 with the address of congo but didn’t notify neither kcc or congo embassy, now he found out about the 2nd NLs just last Friday the 28th, he is very confused as returning to south Africa will be a very difficult process now and almost impossible, what would you please suggest him to do? Thx
March 4, 2020 at 23:01
He will have to contact both embassies and ask to switch the interview.
March 4, 2020 at 11:43
hello Mister Brit !
what means AT NVC ?
March 4, 2020 at 23:23
Please read the FAQ.
March 9, 2020 at 15:23
Hi Brit please my case is af508**,what the probabily to go at interview in May?Thank.
March 9, 2020 at 17:23
Wait and see.
April 10, 2020 at 23:41
Hi Mr. Brit
There is something I want to understand Sir; what will be the DV 2020 selectees, especially for those of us that have become current? 2020AF00039***
April 10, 2020 at 23:44
I mean since the program has been put to stop because of the outbreak.
April 11, 2020 at 23:27
I don’t know. We can only wait and see what will be the next steps.