AFRICA 38,000 Except: Egypt: 19,700
ASIA 10,500 Except: Nepal: 6,325
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) 18
and the CARIBBEAN 1,425
This is for July interviews.
Those that are current, and have forms processed early enough, they can expect their 2NL in about 1 to 2 weeks from now. I know I am going to get a lot of people who will ask me this exact question – so let me say that again. 2NLs will be sent in about one or two weeks time – that means the latter part of the month. The schedule is that VBs are published between the 8th and the 15th of each month, and 2NLs go out from the 15th to the end of the month (most typically around the 20th to 24th). This is the same every month, so there is no need to ask me.
To those new to looking at VBs, let me explain what the “except” XXX country means.
Processing is spread out over the full year. You can see the progress of the two previous years in this post about basic questions. However, some countries have a high number of selectees and those selectees are concentrated in the lower case numbers. For various reasons, mainly to do with embassy capacity, KCC slow down certain countries as compared to the region. So – in Africa, any case with a case number shown as under the new number can be interviewed but for cases from Egypt, that number is lower. That isn’t a big problem, it just “slows down” those countries a little more than the rest of the region. Since selectees from those countries all have lower case numbers, this slowing down does not present any risk. It does not (at this point) mean they won’t allow all selectees an interview from those countries.
To understand why some countries get lower case numbers, read this article about the lottery draw process.
Read this link if you are unsure how to read the visa bulletin
May 11, 2018 at 19:32
Why did you delete my comment? ?
Ps: I have a screenshot ?
May 11, 2018 at 19:37
I tossed a coin in my tyrannical way. You lost.
May 11, 2018 at 19:42
Tyrants never win.
May 11, 2018 at 20:51
Hi Brit! I’m pretty sure you’ve noticed/commented on this before, but just in case… If you look at previous years, there is an interesting trend: by the end of the process they’ve usually made current as much cases as visas were allotted (give or take a few hundred). I’m talking EU. In previous years, they’ve made current around 18500-18700 cases which is roughly the annual quota for EU. That means that by the end of the process a good rule of thumb is: one current case = 1 visa issued. So, if that holds true, this year should be no different, that means in the end, around 18300-18500 cases should have been made current in order to hit the quota. The way they’ve decreased the pace these last 4 months seems to indicate that by the end of July there will have been around 14500-14700 visas issued to about 14400 cases made current, so we would be right on stride. Wouldn’t that mean making at least 4000 cases current by the end of the process to get up to at least the official quota of 18,300?
May 11, 2018 at 20:56
Well no – because the actual ratio depends on a number of factors, some of which have changed this year because of the distribution of the selectees.
June 15, 2018 at 11:48
Greetings, my name is NTUI Kluvert Tabot, I’m from Cameroon, I won the lottery last year, I have already submitted the ds260 online form but I haven’t been called for interview yet
My case number is 2018AF00044386
Please what should I do?
June 15, 2018 at 13:41
May 11, 2018 at 21:12
I’m not sure it has affected that much the simple rule of thumb. I think it has affected the speed and which cases were processed first. But wouldn’t you agree that if by the end of July they have issued around 14500 visas for 14400 cases made current up to then, then the rule would hold for the final 4000 visas left?
May 11, 2018 at 21:25
No. That “rule” would be blown apart by completing AP cases. Really – you are reading too much importance into it.
May 11, 2018 at 21:36
You’re right. I guess I’m just trying to come up with hypothesis were my CN is in the safe zone. I’m only human, and “wait and see” is no doubt the smartest attitude, but it is SO DAMN HARD!! 😉
May 11, 2018 at 22:21
Visas are being issued at a faster rate than actual cases. The only way you get safe is extra quota.
May 11, 2018 at 21:42
@Catalan Dragon, if i may interfere in tjis discussion, how can you really believe that by the end of july there will be 14700 issued visas? We are in the begining of may and they have issued 12300 already, with so many ready cases and ap cases waiting i would expect 14000 visas issued bu the end of may only. 1070 real cases for june plus 656 real cases for july can give at least 2500 visas plus other 500-700 from remaining ready and ap cases makes 17000 by the ens of july. If they respect quota only 1000-1300 visas will be left for august and september. Correct me if im wrong Simon.
May 11, 2018 at 22:24
All the numbers don’t help unless we know whether the quota will be held or not.
May 12, 2018 at 00:46
Well, I believe a lot of those ready cases are going to be no-shows and some refused. There are going to be some backlog cases but I believe mostly are going to be new current cases. Also, since starting in March they reduced the pace significantly, that decrease is slowly, but exponentially, going to show in the number of visas issued in May, June and July. If you look at progression from previous years, there are times when if you added the issued number of visas and the ready cases (sometimes up to 6,000 ready at points) it would seem like they would run out of visas. But by the end of the process, there’s usually a good amount of cases (over 2,000) that have stayed ready. But, of course, your guess is as good as mine. If I’m halfway right, we should see the number of issued visas by the end of May somewhere around 13,500. Then 14,500 by the end of June and around 15,200 by the end of July. Also, AP cases remain more or less constant throughout the process (around1,200-1,400) and by the end they’re down to around 600-800. And another factor that will slightly affect will be the derivative rate dropping slightly down to around 2.2 from 2.3.
May 11, 2018 at 21:32
Sorry, my bad. By the end of June the number of cases made current will be around 13,900. The ratio this year seems to be closer to 1 current case = 1.04 visas issued. So, taking that number into account, and IF there are around 15,000 visas issued by the end of July… they would roughly have to make around 3,350 cases current to hit the quota, maybe a couple hundred more because derivative ratio is smaller and no shows are probably more when you have only two months left… right?
May 11, 2018 at 21:36
Simon isn’t a tyrant or anything like that.
You remind of of the below dictator race scene when he shooted all his competitors in order to win the race 😀
Are you his competitor?
What he will gain from deleting your comments?
He will win the race?
Simon is just an ordinary man who tries to help people and at the same time learn how the DV program works to increase his knowledge from all the comments being posted on the blog hopefully he can gain something in return to make his daughter happy.
Unlike the so many pages which claims to provide legal consultation regarding DV cases which will surely cost money.
He provides that consultation free of charge.
So it’s up anyone of the blog readers who can afford sending him donation otherwise he just expect you to say thank you.
When he says “Wait and see”
It really means “Wait and see” because he just doesn’t know.
There is no conspiracy against you or anyone else and he is not trying to hide any information as you mentioned.
I noticed that he sometimes get nervous which is normal as he tries to reply to the same damn questions everyday.
The only thing i have against him is he tries very hard to defend the people behind the DV whether it’s a consulate or KCC or whoever which caused me to argue with him but now i realized that i was mistaken.
Sorry Simon and please say Hi to Sofia 🙂
May 11, 2018 at 22:03
My case nr is EU223**, do you guys think i have a chance of interview
May 11, 2018 at 22:28
What do you think?
May 13, 2018 at 13:20
What does this meann?
June 14, 2018 at 23:53
May 12, 2018 at 02:08
Hi Simon, I’ve been following all your articles. There was a one where you guessed the safe numbers for regions. Is that article outdated or you still think those are safe ones? Also my number is high so I’m doubting I will get it (EU32xxx) but I was wondering I’m already in the USA would the fact that I would just do AOS in any way increase chances? Probably no, considering that my number still has to be called, right?
Thanks and good luck everyone, we are all in together and I wish everyone would get their hopes filled!
May 12, 2018 at 03:26
Yes my earlier ranges are outdated and too high. Your number seemed safe, but is risky. AOS doesn’t make it safer, as you rightly say. Good luck!
May 13, 2018 at 08:17
Similar case here.
I’m already in the USA, case EU34xxx
I guess is impossible to be called for interview with such a high number unless some unexpected miracle happen.
I have doubts about AOS.
Should I apply for AOS even the chance of having interview is almost zero?
If I apply for the AOS and as I espect I don’t have an interview, can I go back to my previous status (student visa)?
May 13, 2018 at 13:50
If you get current (which is unlikely), you can file early, and I have known cases that get current in September be completed.
May 12, 2018 at 03:46
any idea about case no 68** from Nepal?
What chances about next VB august. ?
Any predictions about final cut off for Nepal?
May 12, 2018 at 03:47
Wait and see. Really.
May 14, 2018 at 00:34
Hi simon just say my number will go current this august. Do you think there is still time and chance for me to get the visa? Since the processing time and background check may take a while. Just asking the possibility from the time manner thank you
May 14, 2018 at 03:23
Cases current I August and September do get visas.
May 13, 2018 at 00:28
May be for September bro
May 13, 2018 at 12:47
I am also from Nepal with case no. 68** ..and I think there is no chance in the next VB and most probably we do have chance in the last month..and still finger crossed . What a life it has been?
May 13, 2018 at 03:40
Hello BritSimon! My case number is EU30***, Do you think it’s risky? The interviews seems to be slowing down.
May 13, 2018 at 04:20
Yes it is risky.
May 13, 2018 at 07:30
Hi sir, please is it possible for a form to be unlocked if the applicant is already current?
May 13, 2018 at 13:48
You can try – sometimes they will, sometimes they say they have already scheduled.
May 13, 2018 at 07:35
Hi Simon, first of all thank you so much for all the help! Your blog and the forum really help me to understand the process better and calm down (aaahhh). Do you have a new prediction to what numbers will go current by september for EU region? I am about 26.7k and starting to get worried.
May 13, 2018 at 13:48
No new prediction – wait and see.
June 21, 2018 at 16:24
i am also 267 🙁 i think it will be either September interview or no chance.
May 13, 2018 at 08:58
Would you consider EU248** to be a risky number?
May 13, 2018 at 09:03
May 13, 2018 at 13:51
Everyone not already current should wait and see.
May 15, 2018 at 21:53
af26xx submitted Ds260 July 2017 but did not receive my 2nl yet
what is my problem
May 16, 2018 at 01:53
Ummm – lack of patience.
May 16, 2018 at 12:39
Hi Brit, thank you for you good job, I would like to know if this week will starting to send 2NL by KCC?
May 16, 2018 at 15:52
Read the article above!
May 16, 2018 at 16:32
My case is AF29xxx haven’t received anything yet. Do you think I will receive for July?
May 16, 2018 at 16:36
May 16, 2018 at 18:21
Hi Brit, can you please give us sime tips to avoid the AP during the interview.
May 16, 2018 at 18:23
Read the instructions.
Fully prepare all the documents they need and any others you think might be needed.
Answer questions simply, honestly. No need for long winded answers.
May 16, 2018 at 20:33
Hi Dear Brit. I have a préoccupation , in dôme of m’y documents they put Joel then on others they put Joël. Çan this cause a problem ?
May 16, 2018 at 20:37
Hi Dear Brit. I have a preoccupation, in some of my documents they put Joel then in others they put Joël. Can this cause a problem ?
May 16, 2018 at 20:37
May 16, 2018 at 20:39
Thank you for all strong man
May 17, 2018 at 06:39
Hey brit my case number is 265xxx and haven’t received 2nl
May 17, 2018 at 13:51
Be patient. If you cannot contain yourself, call KCC.
May 17, 2018 at 16:11
there is a question asking about your physical address I answered and I mentioned my home address after it there is a question saying is your home address same like your mailing address I answered yes because I can receive mail in both addresses is that OK or they gonna think I’m lying
May 17, 2018 at 16:50
Calm down. No need to ask every single question. Some are just your own imagination running wild.
May 17, 2018 at 17:01
Sir in the dv lotterey entry I wrote my postal box adress as my mailing address and after I won and fill the ds 260 there is a question asking about the home address I answered and after it there is a question saying is your home address same like your mailing address I answered yes because I can receive mail in my home address will this cause a problem and should I unlock my application and answer no and write postal box Adress and if I unlock will this cause the delay
May 20, 2018 at 18:29
hello my number EU34 *** there is no hope already but I have a question if in August or September there will be current then the embassy invites for an interview or I missed something
May 20, 2018 at 18:44
I don’t know what will happen. Wait and see.
May 21, 2018 at 02:21
Hey brit is there any possibility that this year there will be only 11 VB total?
I heard they dont publish 12th VB?
Im from Nepal with case number 69xx
I know im bothering you Brit but please try to understand my inner feelings .Im really dying each day to get my turn .Everybody are asking when will I go to US?
May 21, 2018 at 02:33
There are 12 VBs. There just are. Now – sometimes a region or a country doesn’t increase in a VB. I don’t know if that will happen. Wait and see.
May 22, 2018 at 09:17
My case number is Af48xxx risk or not
May 22, 2018 at 13:55
Wait and see
May 23, 2018 at 21:17
Hi Simon my case number is EU22400.
Is there any chance for interview for me?
May 23, 2018 at 21:53
Wait and see.
May 25, 2018 at 01:58
Hi. My case number AS98**. What time does letter2 recieve me?
May 25, 2018 at 02:51
What day – I don’t know – wait and see.
June 1, 2018 at 14:23
Dear Mr. Simon,
Will Asia go current in Agust, considering travel ban and number of issued visa by now?
June 1, 2018 at 15:54
We will see in a few days.
June 4, 2018 at 01:47
Hello Simon, my number is AF 99xx from Africa but whenever i try to submit my form fails,,, i instead get more recaptcha codes after pressing the sign and submit button. What might be the problem…. Am i not too late for submission depending on my number?
June 6, 2018 at 01:44
My number is OC1330
is it save?
June 6, 2018 at 04:34
Wait and see.
June 12, 2018 at 23:17
Helo Simone greetings and thanks for your great job. I just want to know sir why is the visa bulletin for the up coming month taking a longer time to be out? Thanks
June 12, 2018 at 23:37
It is not delayed.
June 13, 2018 at 03:24
Just wondering, what are your thoughts on the Africa numbers increasing by 10,000 in one month? Based on the historical numbers it had never happened before. I wish it had happened for Europe, EU32xxx here 🙁
June 13, 2018 at 04:04
You must read the historical numbers more carefully – it has happened before – often. It wasn’t totally unexpected.
June 14, 2018 at 02:19
Hello Simon greetings, Hope Africa can also increase this month again by the same amount as last month?
June 14, 2018 at 04:07
Wait and see
June 14, 2018 at 19:56
Hello Simone greetings. Please I just which to ask if there will be another visa bulletin for this month because it’s almost the 15th of the month and one is not seeing any prospects. thanks
June 14, 2018 at 20:03
June 14, 2018 at 20:58
Hey Brit, does the fact that this month the VB come not as early than previous months may be a positive sign?
June 14, 2018 at 21:06
I know people only listen to what they want to hear – but let me say again. The VB is considered late only AFTER the 15th (on the USA Eastern time zone). You started predicting the release as early as the past Sunday (even though they don’t work weekends) – and now, predictably, you have yourself worked up that it is late. Today is the 14th. It isn’t late.
It’s stressful enough – I don’t know why you make it worse by watching the kettle boil…
June 14, 2018 at 21:17
I know. But later than the few previous months
June 14, 2018 at 21:22
VB for March interviews was published on Jan 16…
That WAS actually late.
June 14, 2018 at 23:45
Hello Simon greetings. Are we sure to have the upcoming VB for this month? because today is the 15th already and there is no sign of anything. Thanks.
June 15, 2018 at 00:18
It is still the 14th in the USA.
I expect them to release the VB tomorrow – but if it were delayed, that would not be the first time ever. The VB published in January was delayed to the 16th.
June 15, 2018 at 05:05
It’s the 15.06.2018, 01.00 (am)in US right now; so I’m also waiting for my turn, but I’m patient. Now I hope that everybody here read you loud and clear Simon!
June 15, 2018 at 10:37
June 15, 2018 at 11:16
AF goes current so happy with my high case number