AFRICA | 28,300 | Except: Egypt: 18,150 Ethiopia: 26,000 |
ASIA | 7,800 | Except: Nepal: 5,900 |
EUROPE | 20,300 | |
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) | 16 | |
OCEANIA | 1,100 | |
SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN |
1,275 |
The “May” bulletin has been released. It includes details of case numbers that are current for June interviews. There are three months remaining after this bulletin to be scheduled.
Those that are current, and have forms processed early enough, they can expect their 2NL in about 1 to 2 weeks from now. I know I am going to get a lot of people who will ask me this exact question – so let me say that again. 2NLs will be sent in about one or two weeks time – that means the latter part of the month. The schedule is that VBs are published between the 8th and the 15th of each month, and 2NLs go out from the 15th to the end of the month (most typically around the 20th to 24th). This is the same every month, so there is no need to ask me.
To those new to looking at VBs, let me explain what the “except” XXX country means.
Processing is spread out over the full year. You can see the progress of the two previous years in this post about basic questions. However, some countries have a high number of selectees and those selectees are concentrated in the lower case numbers. For various reasons, mainly to do with embassy capacity, KCC slow down certain countries as compared to the region. So – in Africa, any case with a case number shown as under the new number can be interviewed but for cases from Egypt, that number is lower. That isn’t a big problem, it just “slows down” those countries a little more than the rest of the region. Since selectees from those countries all have lower case numbers, this slowing down does not present any risk. It does not (at this point) mean they won’t allow all selectees an interview from those countries.
To understand why some countries get lower case numbers, read this article about the lottery draw process.
Read this link if you are unsure how to read the visa bulletin
April 11, 2018 at 16:19
Simon this Is horrible I think something is happening it is not possible to be so slow ..is there any kind of explanation ??? Here CN 348xx
April 11, 2018 at 16:28
The explanation is that there are too many selectees. Your number always had “some” risk – now it is hard to imagine your number being current.
April 11, 2018 at 16:20
Thanks , Simon. I think it is time to talk about being current for rest of year. What do you think ? Because numbers are so slow and I am thinking that last or last 2 months will be current. My question is will you post about how being current progress process if it will be current?
Thanks for all what you do .
April 11, 2018 at 16:27
There is zero chance of EU being current. We are heading for a low number.
April 11, 2018 at 19:44
hi Simon, thanks for fast response. my case number is 34XXX. so, to be realistic, it is zero chance or as you mention before, lets wait and see.
thanks
April 11, 2018 at 20:23
Well it isn’t over until its over – but it must be pretty close to zero.
April 11, 2018 at 16:21
mr simon
my CN(AF205xx) is still safe after this VB ?
April 11, 2018 at 16:21
20,300. Unbelievable. Shit happens. So, what we (EU30+) gonna do, guys? I know – w8 and see 🙂
April 11, 2018 at 16:30
IMHO probably it’s game over for anyone with 3 in front (EU)…
April 11, 2018 at 17:08
I concur. Game over
April 11, 2018 at 17:14
Yup.
April 11, 2018 at 17:21
I would not be so categorical. We don`t know number of sent DS-260.
April 11, 2018 at 17:23
You should not be so categorical. We don`t know how many sent DS-260.
April 11, 2018 at 17:16
i think the very low 30xxxx still have a chance
April 11, 2018 at 16:22
Wait and see
April 11, 2018 at 16:23
Hello, with this pace and progress, case numbers over 30k can lose their hope to get an interview ? Is there any chance for current this year? Thanks
April 11, 2018 at 16:25
Absolutely no hope for current for EU.
April 11, 2018 at 16:27
Wiil you change your prediction for EU winners?
April 11, 2018 at 16:31
I have already – for some time I have been cautious for cases in the upper 20’s and up – this VB puts the nail in the coffin for high case numbers.
April 11, 2018 at 16:30
If i may ask Simon, why there’s no hope for current for EU?
April 11, 2018 at 16:38
Hope for current? Great joke! ?
April 11, 2018 at 16:41
Why there’s no hope for EU being current, can anyone explain it ?
April 11, 2018 at 16:47
I don’t know but in case you’ve been in cryogenic hibernation it’s planet Earth, april 2018 A.D.
April 11, 2018 at 16:51
Maybe I don’t understand the process and that’s why im asking the question above, having said that, your answer and sense of humor shows exactly who’s been in hibernation, have a nice day 🙂
April 11, 2018 at 17:27
“Current” for a region means there are enough visas for all remaining demand – and that the embassies could handle all the interviews required in the time left. Neither thing is true – there are NOT enough visas for everyone and there is no way the embassies could handle that volume even if quota were not a problem. So – current for EU in DV2018 is not a possibility, and never has been. There are just too many people selected this year.
April 11, 2018 at 17:25
The reason he said no hope is because that number can’t and won’t be reached by the September bulletin based on the current pace. It’s the May bulletin and we barely reaching EU20XXX cases. If that’s all we’ve reached in 8 months no way they’ll take on 10K+ cases numbers within the remaining 4 months… there’s no more “wait and see” possible, just game over and hurtful reality.
April 11, 2018 at 17:33
Previous years in the last month they increased the number with 4k and more, why this year is different? Why can’t they handle it ?
Thank you for your answer above
April 11, 2018 at 16:25
So slow ,brit does that now mean game over for those of us with High CN of AF465**,so discouraging
April 11, 2018 at 16:25
I’m 309** am’i save .please don’t say wait and see just say what u realy think
April 11, 2018 at 16:31
EU? No, not “safe”.
April 11, 2018 at 16:26
Sir, why some peoples 2NL letter is one month delayed. What do you think?
April 11, 2018 at 16:32
I don’t know.
April 11, 2018 at 16:26
Hello, Brit. When the current appropriate? When they are sure that all will receive visas. Right? Can we see a the biggest steps ever – from 5000 to 8000? Thx.
April 11, 2018 at 17:40
Region?
April 11, 2018 at 16:37
Shoo ..I wasn’t nervous about the AF numbers until now. Do you think pace will increase dramatically over the next 3 calls ? Case AF 40*** ..is it at some risk if pace remains the same ?
April 11, 2018 at 17:39
Really – this year of all years – wait and see is the only answer.
April 11, 2018 at 16:41
How on Earth is AF even supposed to reach even 18k visas issued in such la short time left(only 8k issued ). For Eu , ok I get it, they’re close to their quota.it’s hard not seeing AF get current. I’m not saying so coz I’m high case but it would require an insanely high issue rate to even under shoot the 21k
April 12, 2018 at 14:46
@BritSimon, KCC are under no obligation to use all the visa quotas for a given region, are they ? It is a plausible scenario that they keep at this pace for AF for the upcoming 3 months until the end of the fiscal year, isn’t it ?
April 12, 2018 at 14:50
Yes, they are not obligated to fill the quota, and yes the pace could continue as is, or slow, or speed up.
April 11, 2018 at 16:42
I just want to say that some people need to stop taking their anxiety and frustration on BritSimon. Do you guys realize that he does this to help US out of his free will and time?! He’s not KCC, USCIS, the embassies or whatever authority involved in the process. He does not pick and choose which number or when cases will be current. He doesn’t publish the bulletins. He doesn’t send out the 2nd letters. And the list goes on. Seriously some people need to back off… Yes I understand the distress and stress some may feel but no need to be so rude, impatient and insistent toward a person who’s done nothing but help, advise and guide all of us! Good luck to all. The 2018 DV Lottery has been something else… and not a good “something”
April 11, 2018 at 16:43
Regarding Egypt I think that AF 24000 will not be safe, its clear that VB in Egypt is so slow. and I think i will be cutoff early this year. Isn’t it ?
April 11, 2018 at 16:44
hmm… EU285xx here, looking rough. They’ll have to move at 2700 per month for the next 3 months to reach my number, which looks unlikely. Pace increased from 2100 to 2250, don’t see it going to 2500 or more a month.
April 11, 2018 at 16:46
It increased by 3100 between February and March. It’s not impossible ! I hope too, 29XXX here.
April 11, 2018 at 16:47
good luck!!
April 11, 2018 at 16:48
good luck, to us, I mean 🙂
April 11, 2018 at 16:51
Good luck ! 🙂
April 11, 2018 at 16:47
Sir,
What is the fate of those that underwent interview in November and has not being contacted again.
All my documents were left at the embassy and I was told that I will be contacted as soon as the background security check is concluded. I am thinking that it is long overdue. What should I do?
Thanks for your cooperations.
April 11, 2018 at 17:37
Contact the embassy.
April 11, 2018 at 22:01
May i ask where are you from
April 11, 2018 at 16:48
Hi BritSimon! Is EU27000 still safe? Honestly. Please.
April 11, 2018 at 16:50
No.
April 11, 2018 at 17:37
There are 2888 actual cases from 20300 to 27000. They just made 1072 new actual cases current, and there are 3 months left. So – pace is “OK” for your number.
As for quota – well right now there are about 7000 to 8000 visas remaining. Issuance rates have been over 2000 per month, BUT the interview pace for April, May and June is lower than we saw previously. So – by slowing the pace they seem to be pretty much on target to reach the quota. We cannot rely on them using NACARA visas. They didn’t last year, and don’t appear to be planning to use them this year.
April 11, 2018 at 18:39
Thanks! Can you link the file, where I can see the numbers?
April 11, 2018 at 18:47
https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/ceacFY18.html#
April 11, 2018 at 20:00
I think on 11. April EU27000 CN seems to be safe. Right, BritSimon? 10559 Issued visas + (2.888 CN x 2,25 x 0.6)=14458 visas + ~3000 Still ready visas = 17458 visas + visas between 18050 CN and 20300 CN. What is your calculation BritSimon? Thank you for helping.
April 11, 2018 at 20:39
I don’t understand your numbers.
April 11, 2018 at 20:57
What is your worst scenario or the scenario that will happen? What is your opinion/calculations in be the final numbers in EU?
April 11, 2018 at 21:04
And finally what happened with Ukraine and Uzbekistan? Are they still get in game?
April 11, 2018 at 22:16
Dear Brit, ok there are 2888 real cases from 20300 to 27000 but what with the backlogs? They can affect the next VBs?
April 11, 2018 at 23:54
Yes, backlog cases take interviews and visas.
April 11, 2018 at 17:43
27k should be fine
April 11, 2018 at 16:49
Thank you for keeping us updated sir!
But please do answer what do u really think (AS11***) is safe or not, and what about for current for AS.
Please answer what u think don’t say wait and see.
Thanks in advance.
April 11, 2018 at 17:29
I don’t know – so wait and see.
April 11, 2018 at 16:49
Hey guys look Dv2016 numbers for AF is repeating again (pay attention). Ha ha ha
April 11, 2018 at 17:02
What do u mean at this time in 2016 it was at 3k plus and current so what do u say
April 11, 2018 at 16:49
It’s because of response rate. Now I see a response rate about 60% in EU. In DV2017 it was 54%. In the previous years it was like 50%. People are migrating to US like hell.
EU needs 28k visas at this point. Quota is 18k.
20915 * 0.6 * 2.25 = ~28k
April 11, 2018 at 17:14
I pointed this out in Jan. that response rate seemed already higher this year… but I was told I dont understand anything…
April 11, 2018 at 16:50
Dear .Simon are u thought AF21550 is safe from Egypt
April 11, 2018 at 17:28
I don’t know.
April 11, 2018 at 19:28
I think so. Logically if we suppose that July VB will be except 20200 so August will be 21400 accordingly Sep will be 22500 as per my expectations
April 11, 2018 at 16:51
Hi Birt….
I have 2 children with expire passports in 31/8/2018
my case number is 2018AS10xxx …what can I do please????
April 11, 2018 at 17:28
Renew the passports.
April 11, 2018 at 16:51
Hello Brit, though there has been a good increament in the Asian region, the VB of Nepal seems to be very low for June. What do you think is the safe number for Nepal now.
April 11, 2018 at 17:27
Wait and see.
April 11, 2018 at 16:58
Yes every month about 2,000 to 3,000 numbers are added to Africa. They will stop at 35,000
good luck for all
April 11, 2018 at 16:58
Hi brit. My guess is still 1700 to 1800 case numbers for SA
April 11, 2018 at 20:28
My number is 17xx :/. I hope will be CURRENT in the next bulletins. “Solo Dios Sabra”.
April 11, 2018 at 17:00
It looks as if anyone with cases number EU30XXX are out this year ?? no way EU will go current. I think it’s time we all come to this resolution. However I don’t understand why AF Progress is so slow… anyway GOOD LUCK TO MY FELLOW EUROPEANS! DV2018 IS A ROLLERCOASTER FROM HELL ?
April 11, 2018 at 19:52
lol. rollercoasters tend to go up anddown… this year went just straight down
April 11, 2018 at 17:05
Hi BritSimon,
Thanks for your efforts helping us understand processes behind DV program!
It has been a very nervous year for winners with high CN starting from last fall when dv17 got short on visas and now it gets really frustrating.
For those of us with CN above 33xxx do you think it is end of story or are we still in P10 range? (assuming 27000 is P90 and 30xxx is P50)
April 11, 2018 at 17:24
It’s hard to understand a scenario where EU33XXX would become current. They just made 1072 new cases current (18050 to 20300). From 20300 to 33000 there are 5500 cases. If they were trying to get to 33000 they would have taken more in this month. They didn’t.
April 11, 2018 at 17:31
But we do not know how many of these 5500 cases sent their ds-260 – 1000, 2000, 3000.
April 11, 2018 at 22:09
5500 is the number of the cases that sent their DS-260
April 13, 2018 at 11:10
No it’s not right
April 11, 2018 at 17:06
Hi Brit,
First i would like to salute for your contribuion.
I have some question regarding my AOS processing especially about change of address.
Situation:
I choose AOS, i have already complete DS 260, while filling DS 260, i do not mentioned all previous change of address since i have moved more than 5/6 times in 2 years duration. So i mentioned only 3 of the previous addresses.
I hope my case will be current next month, so i am preparing for i-485 now.
For not to miss importnat mail, in DS-260 i have write my present permanent address as my brother’s address, but i am leaving in different apartment in the same city.
Question:
1) So what do you think ; In i-485, should i mentioned exactly the same previous address that i write in DS-260 or make changes in i-485?
2) In your opinion, how serious is this matter ?
Note: Right now, even though i am leaving in different apartment, a week before i have change all my address of bank, college and MVA to my brother’s address.
Thank You for your time!
April 11, 2018 at 17:19
The accuracy of the DS260 for AOS cases doesn’t matter.
April 11, 2018 at 17:44
I am not clear about your response.
So, should i go with the same thing waht i mentioned in DS-260?
April 11, 2018 at 18:21
Forget the DS260. The I-485 should be accurate.
April 11, 2018 at 17:07
hello sir, am from Africa. I have the impression the rate at which the numbers are being released is slow. Am AF 35745 how soon can I expect? Thanks sir
April 11, 2018 at 17:18
Exercise some patience. Others are dealing with crushed dreams.
April 11, 2018 at 17:07
Anyway, what you thinking about that, Brit? Hole zone between 18k and 20k much bigger than earlier. Why we don’t see vb numbers increase? Response rate changed or another stuff? I can’t understand that
April 11, 2018 at 17:17
They have slowed the pace. It’s either because they believe they will hit the quota with that lower pace OR they cannot support a higher pace even if that means not filling the quota. Either way – it is clear that the final number will be much lower than we are used to seeing. Cases in the 30’s are certainly at risk – and even numbers in the high 20’s.
April 11, 2018 at 17:15
Hi, can you explain me please, why cant it be done next months current for EU? My case is 306**
April 11, 2018 at 17:48
There are too many cases left, and not enough visas for all.
April 11, 2018 at 23:11
Hello simon,
My case nr is EU22xxx.
Do you think i got a chance for interview?
April 11, 2018 at 23:53
Very obviously yes.
April 11, 2018 at 17:19
I don’t even know what to think anymore. I must be blind from all these slow progress. I mean I saw the same pattern in Eu 2016 rather.
April 11, 2018 at 17:47
It doesn’t make sense to try and match case number progress from this year to other years. It’s not the case numbers – it’s the number of cases, and the procedures in place to process the cases (some of which never existed in previous years).
April 11, 2018 at 17:30
Its impossible pace while density is half of that we see in the begining. The next paces certainly will be about 3400-3600. And Statistic of visa issued says the same and all figures says the same (2015 vs 2018). The delay in the pace is only because of another way of processing DS forms. All forms sent later which is number is current gets the interview asap, so certainly cause slow pace. Please urge me I’m not right
April 11, 2018 at 17:43
I don’t expect a big increase in pace now. The density above 18000 is the same for the next 18/19k.
April 11, 2018 at 17:42
Hi simon , Any chance for case no AF486**?with this slow process of interivew ?
Regards ,
April 11, 2018 at 18:18
I don’t know. Wait and see.
April 11, 2018 at 17:43
Hi Sİmon . my number is EU 248xx. do you have hope. Answer please. thanks bro
April 11, 2018 at 18:20
https://britsimonsays.com/vb-for-june-interviews-released/comment-page-1/#comment-109292
April 11, 2018 at 18:50
Hi dear Brit. My case too 248XX. Appx. on what month will be my interview? August or September?
Have I chance? Thanks beforehand
April 11, 2018 at 18:54
Your number is meaningless without a region.
April 11, 2018 at 19:34
EU
April 11, 2018 at 17:44
Thanks very much Brit. I m raj from srilanka . My case no AS85**. I think my 2nl will get next month. Am I correct Brit?
Thanks you Brit
April 11, 2018 at 18:20
Wait and see.
April 11, 2018 at 17:47
Hello brit, so with these numbers, do I have a chance with my AF460XX Number
April 11, 2018 at 17:54
Wait and see. Really.
April 11, 2018 at 17:50
My CS is EU212 ** I have a chance for the next month
April 11, 2018 at 17:52
Honestly – f applying rates from all previous year led to an original “cut of starting risk zone” from 33k- and now we see how likly it has become that cutoff will be late 20s- early 30ies- and we see however that there are more refuslas and still more AP cases this year- there must be a rate that unexpectlingly increased. Either more derv. this year, or more responses, or both.
April 11, 2018 at 18:03
Oh well .. I hoped for a better number for AF .. I’m 348** and I don’t know if they’re gonna reach my number or no .. what do you think Mr BritSimons?
I’ll be scraping the best captcha numbers asap ..
April 11, 2018 at 18:09
There are 3 months of VBs left. Apply the current pace from this VB and your number is OK – so be patient.
April 11, 2018 at 18:10
Sorry to ask but how many real cases are between 28300 and 41000 AF ..sorry once more because i barely understand your formula please
April 11, 2018 at 18:15
It’s not a formula – its looking at the file.
5875.
April 11, 2018 at 18:13
eu 28k is safe ?
April 11, 2018 at 18:22
https://britsimonsays.com/vb-for-june-interviews-released/comment-page-1/#comment-109292
April 11, 2018 at 18:19
Hi britsimon plz could you tell us honesty apart from “wait and see” is there any chance for us AF356** plz can you give us some clear answers..? Thank u
April 11, 2018 at 18:24
If that were my number I wouldn’t be too concerned. However, this year is different – so wait and see is the only sensible answer.
April 11, 2018 at 18:20
I think that if there are many cases with late DS submission that are included in the last few VBs it is possible (if there are less of late submission cases in the next months) that the pace increases in the next few months. At least I hope that 🙂
Thanks Brit for your patience with all of us which are very impatient and nervious when we see that the end of the FY is approaching and our chances to get a GC diminish. You are doing a great job, really.
April 11, 2018 at 18:23
Yes that can be a factor – and it will help somewhat, but it cannot make a huge difference.
April 11, 2018 at 18:29
lol, well if there are many “old” cases included in the last few VB (actually we know how many it was for april and may), what that means for us is that response rate grows and visas will be issued even faster. So let us please hope there are NOT many old cases!!!
April 11, 2018 at 18:37
He was suggesting there would be LESS backlog cases in the later months.
April 11, 2018 at 18:39
right. I was already suprised of the backlog for the last VB actually. with this new processing, I assumed it would be lower.
April 11, 2018 at 18:24
Dear Mr.Simon
AF39×××?
Its not far so i should wait and see also ?
April 11, 2018 at 18:25
EVERYONE should wait and see.
April 11, 2018 at 18:28
Its only 39××× and AF
I resign already from my job ??
April 11, 2018 at 18:35
That was foolish.
April 11, 2018 at 18:29
I have cn 290** for EU. Is it safe now?
April 11, 2018 at 18:38
https://britsimonsays.com/vb-for-june-interviews-released/comment-page-1/#comment-109292
April 11, 2018 at 18:31
im a bother now and im truly sorry …how many cases have been made current from the previous VB AF region please
April 11, 2018 at 18:34
The data is here – https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/ceacFY18.html
April 11, 2018 at 18:31
Do you think af 3267# it’s gonna be current for next visa bulletin thank you
April 11, 2018 at 18:38
I don’t know.
April 11, 2018 at 18:32
Dear Simon, I just wondered.
If the VB for Europe is 20300 for now. My case number is a little after that the 20300, in the middle of 20300-20400.
Is it possible to be invited for interview in June? How do you think?
Thank you in advance.
April 11, 2018 at 18:33
No. not possible at all.
April 11, 2018 at 19:30
Geeez… Can you understand meaning of numbers BELOW 20300? Not 20300, not little or more above 20300, but exactly BELOW 20300. What do you expect? Exception for you? I really don’t understand some people…