Oh man. Someone today talked about the DV process being a rollercoaster ride. It certainly is – and this year more than other years.
Today we saw the VB released for June interviews. So – although there are over 5 full months of interviews left, there are now just 3 VBs left. The progress on todays VB was a “mixed bag” – good news for some, awful news for others.
I am extremely busy at work at the moment, so I cannot do much with the data, but thanks to Xarthisius and the people scraping, we ALL have the CEAC data. Everyone can see and analyze the data for themselves by downloading the latest file from here. To exclude “holes” simply filter out the cases with a status of “none”.
I will make a few brief points on each region though.
In Asia, the number for “rest of Asia” is moving fast. Nepal will continue to see some increases at roughly the same pace we have seen. Nepal cases end around 7000, and the Nepal final number will probably be a little under the that (leaving a few highest cases without interviews). That is a pattern we have seen before. Because of the travel ban, the rest of AS has been allowed to move ahead. If the travel ban stays in place, it is possible for the rest of Asia to go current. However, that would change if the ban is removed. The appeal is being heard by the Supreme Court at the end of April.
For Africa the VB progress was slightly lower than I expected. I honestly don’t know whether the current pace is sufficient to reach the quota. In reality, the enhanced security measures this year and to some extend the travel ban have meant there are a lot of visas remaining before the quota (21600) is met, since there are only about 8000 visas issued at this point. However, The pace of issuances in the latter half of the year is always higher for AF region, especially as AP cases are concluded alongside issuances from normal processing. So – we have to wait and see where the final numbers will fall. I am NOT going to try to predict that number.
Oceania is tracking more or less exactly as expected and is heading for the 1450/1500 final number.
South America had a good month – but there is not much reason to believe pace will increase any faster than the 175 we saw this month. So – that would get us to about 1700 ish.
For Europe there is obviously a big disappointment coming for many people. I was sure we were going to see numbers in the 30’s. I really don’t think that will happen now. We have been used to EU doing very well, and I was hopeful this year would see a good high number. However, I am more and more certain that we are going to see a shockingly low VB number. Why? Well we can look at two things to estimate remaining progress. The month to month pace (based on embassy capacity etc), and the progress toward the quota (18300).
First, the pace. KCC reduced the pace in terms of the number of “real” case numbers since March. The VBs for April, May and now June interviews have only made 1070 to 1200 new real cases current. By the time we take response rate into account that means they are setting interviews for ~600 to ~750 new cases each month (plus another 150 to 200 from “backlog” cases each month.
So how about the quota? From that pace we would only expect to see around 1200 to 1500 visas issued each month (approximately!). However, that will probably get close to the quota even at that pace, because there are 10500 visas issued already leaving about 7500 to 8000 visas left (and 5.5 months of processing). So – the pace seems to suggest that KCC believe they are on track to meet the quota with existing pace (similar to what we saw in the last 3 VBs).
So – at the current density (which remains static until high 30’s) we could see VB increases of around 2500 a month (give or take a couple of hundred). That would get us to about 28000 or even a little less. That could happen. We would need to see increases of more than 3000 to get over 30000 – but there is not much evidence to hint at that increase in pace. So – I think a final number in the high 20’s is very likely. I have been responding “wait and see” to high cases in the 20’s for around a month now. I was hoping the VB today would dispel the fears. It didn’t.
Again – the data is available for all – please feel free to retain your own hope – I cannot be certain what will happen. Feel free to disagree with me and form your own opinion. Really – all we can do is wait and see how this rollercoaster will end. I fully realize the dreams people have based on this lottery. Best of luck to you all for your own cases – but please do show some sensitivity for the many people who want and deserve this opportunity just as much as you do – and perhaps are behind you in the line.
April 25, 2018 at 19:53
Now that the travel ban appeal has been heard by the Supreme Court today, what’s your opinion on the number of Asia? Will this year go current?
April 25, 2018 at 20:50
For goodness sake. They just heard oral arguments. There is no ruling yet.
April 26, 2018 at 00:55
Does that mean there will be high chance to become current this year in Asia? What if there is ruling in June? Will there be any effect if they rule the ban?
April 26, 2018 at 03:05
Wait and see!!!!!!
April 25, 2018 at 20:23
1. How many visas did they issue in EU in April, more than 2000-2500? That looks really a lot knowing how many cases were invited for the interview. You said in the post 10500 visas issued in this blog and now we are already at 11500 with a few more days in this month..
2. I know you answered this previously, but how many actual cases you expect in EU for May and June interviews. I hope we will not have this massive amount of visa issued in EU as in april, (apologize but you know what does this mean for higher numebers)
April 25, 2018 at 21:49
Both questions are answered here:
April 25, 2018 at 22:01
Thanks, do you still expect between 1200 to 1500 visa issued in EU as you mentioned in this post above?
April 25, 2018 at 22:02
I meant per month?
April 25, 2018 at 22:10
There seem to be a lot of visas being issued from older cases. Possibly due to lag introduced by the DS5535. So in short – yes – that issuance pace or even higher.
April 25, 2018 at 22:38
What does AP mean again please, how do we add them? Thanks
April 25, 2018 at 22:43
AP = a period of additional background check.
How do you add them? Add them to what? Be clear.
April 26, 2018 at 05:29
Like % that will be approved to add up to visa issued!!
April 26, 2018 at 05:45
I don’t have a precise number. Not all of them, obviously.
May 2, 2018 at 11:57
What does ready mean? Interviews schedules ?
April 25, 2018 at 20:27
Dear Brit, do you still think that it will be 3 MORE VBs ? I mean I am doubt about September interview.
April 25, 2018 at 21:03
Of course there will be 3 more VBs. May VB for July interviews, June VB for August interviews and July VB for September interviews… There is always 12 VBs for the 12 months of the FY regardless of pace and visas issues.
April 25, 2018 at 21:50
There is a new VB each month – so yes there are three more VBs that affect DV2017. That is NOT to say numbers have to increase in each VB for each region.
April 26, 2018 at 14:15
Why 3 more VBs?! There must be 4 more VBs (June, July, August and September) ?!
April 26, 2018 at 06:32
Hi Brit, quick question: I think it’s never happened before, but is it technically possible we can see countries being limited in upcoming EU bulletin boards? Like “EU2500 Except Russia 20,000” for instance? Also, you referred to a lag in DS2556 in a previous post and that causing more visas issued… what is that?
April 26, 2018 at 14:27
1. Yes that is possible.
2. DS5535. New security measure introduced by Obama administration but being used only in the last year. Gathering of social media accounts, additional background to cross check for terrorism. Not all countries will be using it, but it is probably the reason for low visas in Uzbekistan.
April 26, 2018 at 13:46
When compared 2018 to 2015 and 2017 (available in ceac) , I have some questions to you.
1) refused number are higher in 2015 and 2017 compared to 2018. Both eu and all. For 2018 totally 5800 till now and until same time ,(april) in 2015 there were just 2600 refused. Also, while refuse rate 8% in 2018, it is 8% in 2017. do you think it might affect the cutoff number by end of the year?
2) 7 months passed but just half of visas were given. Do you think EU might increase number of visas ( I mean exceed the quota ). Because Ret number via Asia and Africa is high this year.
3 ) for Europe , what might change for next 5 months compared to previous 7 months ? For example response rate & derivatives, holes and other variables in order to increase change of high number selectees like me ?
my CN is 333XX
April 26, 2018 at 14:19
1. It affects how many cases are processed to get as many issued as they want.
2. Wait and see.
3. All those factors “could” change – but you should not expect a dramatic change in any of them. Changes are subtle.
Basically – no matter how much you know about this process, you are STILL going to have to wait and see.
April 26, 2018 at 14:28
thank you for your kindly response. lets see what will happen
April 26, 2018 at 17:15
Brit, you mentioned today DS5535. In what status are those cases, while checked through DS5535 ? Are they ready or AP? Thanks!
April 26, 2018 at 18:07
I don’t know for certain – so as far as I know it could be either.
April 26, 2018 at 19:03
Dear brit. Can you laminate your original document after making copies. Is it allowed?
April 26, 2018 at 19:25
Generally speaking I would advise you to not do that. There seems to be some concern about that in some countries where fraud is prevalent.
April 26, 2018 at 20:06
Thanks for your advise.
April 27, 2018 at 00:51
when will albania and ukraine reach the limit? Do you have an estimate?or Are there any countries from the limit(cap) level? Do you think the derivatives will decrease after 20300?
April 27, 2018 at 02:59
No I don’t think they will hit the limit. Regarding derivatives. It normally grows over time, but country distribution may counter that.
April 27, 2018 at 06:58
If we look at the data from previous years, usually the big 5 get around 1500-2000 visas each. They seldom exceed those numbers. Also, in the case of the Ukraine and Uzbekistan most of their case numbers are under the 20,000 threshold. So, they may not “eat” many more visas after that. That means those two countries usually get naturally “capped” during the draw process. This year, countries like Albania, Turkey and Russia have also TONS more of selectees (and people who applied for the lottery… Brit, do you think it’s possible that some of them (probably Albania, and maybe Turkey) were also capped in the draw and most of their cases are also concentrated under the 20,000 threshold?
April 27, 2018 at 07:04
I have described all this before. There are several drops in density shown in the EU region. Each drop is a country being capped (or perhaps two). So – we can speculate which countries (other than U2) cause those drops, but only U2 are under 20k.
April 27, 2018 at 07:09
Turkey and Albania has case numbers like 37k and 39k. I don’t know about Russia. So probably not
April 27, 2018 at 07:37
Probably, yes. Russia has numbers above 34k. But Russian embassy has issued just 470 visas in EU region yet. So, I think there won’t be a cut-off just for Russia. With current pace they will issue about 800-850 visas this year, and that’s less than a cut-off for every single country in a region. Btw, Ukraine has issued about 710 visas, so this country probably wouldn’t have a cut-off either.
The problem isn’t in the particular country, the problem is in the whole pace in the region.
April 27, 2018 at 09:17
Turkey, Albania, Russia, Armenia, Belarus have evenly distributed numbers from 1 to 37000. Alas.
April 27, 2018 at 09:25
vrusmc. Moscow has issued a. 1100 visas.
April 27, 2018 at 10:10
Oopps, sorry. I’ve used the wrong formula. KEV has issued 1723 visas so. So, than cut-off is highly possibly.
April 27, 2018 at 07:11
Hey Brit, I noticed something weird in the charts… if you look at the embassy data chart for France, there seems to be visas issued in the 19,000-21,000 range, and visas ready up until the 25,000 range! How’s that possible? Is it a mistake in the charts data? It has to be, right? ‘Cause there can’t possibly be visas issued now in the 19,000-21,000 range because they can’t get their interviews until June, right??
April 27, 2018 at 07:38
This means that there are selectees from e.g. AF region who have an interview in France.
April 27, 2018 at 07:44
Paris embassy can proceed cases from different regions. When you just select “Paris” the chart shows cases from all regions. To show EU cases you should select the region in the “Choose region” menu. So, you’ll see right numbers than.
It’s obvious, that Paris has a lot of AF cases in its embassy – so you see exactly AF cases on numbers above 20k.
April 28, 2018 at 02:16
I m from Asia
My VB is 105**
I m currently study at State for nearly 2 years
I m consfuing with police report
How can I apply to get police report
I read a lot of websites but still confusing.
Plz kindly assist me
April 28, 2018 at 04:40
You do not need a police cert for the USA
April 28, 2018 at 02:17
I mean for US police report
I already have my own country police report
April 28, 2018 at 18:49
Hi brit.. I have a question and a issue from 2018 data. If a main selectee is refused, what will do derivates? Are they also refused automaticly?
Because, while i was analysing the ceacFY18-xarthisius’s data, i noticed some issues about refuse/ready calculation. Main selectee was refused and ‘1’ is written in refused section (yes it is true), but some refused cases have derivates and these derivates are written in Ready section (if they are refused already, they occur miscalculation).
Thanks for your answer.
April 28, 2018 at 20:27
Yes, that is a known issue. If the main applicant is refused, the derivatives are refused too.
April 29, 2018 at 02:29
The information in the excel file and the information on the web page “ceacFY18-xarthisius” are not the same.
“ceacFY18-xarthisius’s” web page says;
“EU issued 11802- refused 1228- AP1257- Ready 4808”
but in the excel file dated April 28 says,
“issued 11816 – 5616 ready – 912 Ap – 943 refused”
If the information about the beneficiaries of the rejected file is arranged, the new data is as follows;
issued 11816- refused 1203 ??? – ready 2511-Ap 855
Which is the right simon?
April 29, 2018 at 03:00
I don’t know, and I don’t have time to study it tonight. Xarthisius might be able to explain.
May 6, 2018 at 23:48
Count for ‘Issued’ is fairly straightforward: just sum of ‘Issued’ column. That slightly underestimates the actual number, but not that much.
For other categories it’s a bit more complicated. As an example for ‘Refused’ I count all the main applicants that were refused and all their derivatives (no matter their status in CEAC db). Then I add derivatives that were refused from cases with status neq ‘Refused’.
April 29, 2018 at 19:23
I’ve been thinking about the cut-off number of visas issued (18300) for EU region. Maybe Brit has written about that before, but I made my own kind of investigation to find out how that number correlates with the rule of the population of the region. So, here is a table with numbers:
I took “FY17AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf” with DV visas in Fiscal Years 2008-2017, and filled every country population (taken in Wiki) in that list. So, I got a total population for every region and the grand total population. And guess what? There’s no correlation at all. As an example, Asia got 33% of population, but it never had more than 20% of visas. They said something about density (not a population) in the low, so I could make a mistake with an assumption that correlation ever exists.
Furthermore, Europe had more visas than Africa twice – even in overselected 2015 year (when both of them didn’t go current) and w/o NACARA visas (total visas were less than 50k). So, it wouldn’t ever happen is there was a direct correlation with a population.
As a conclusion, I just want to say that we shouldn’t take 18300 as a kind of constant. It is not. But I don’t mean that EU visas can exceed 18300. They can and they cannot either. KCC has its own thoughts how to spread visas. And it’s not all about math. So, really, the only thing we can do – just wait and see. There aren’t any predictions, cause’ we don’t know what KCC thinks and what do they want as an aim of this whole DV process.
April 30, 2018 at 02:47
I think I have made clear that 18300 is not a constant. The quota IS based on population. It is calculated each year – and 18300 is the result of this years calculation (based on the formula) assuming 50k visas. However, there are two reasons why the 18300 can be exceeded. The first is unused visas from another region. That could happen in AS region if the travel ban remains. If AS had a shortfall, KCC could redistribute that shortfall among the other regions. The second reason is if the NACARA visas are allowed to be used.
This uncertainty over the number of visas that will be issued is one reason I say “wait and see”.
April 29, 2018 at 19:41
if the case went to AP after sometime of Ready..Do they return the passport until they finish the AP? and is it possible to ask for my passport to travel for short business trip and return it back afterward?
April 30, 2018 at 02:42
It varies. If you need your passport, you can ask them – but that will introduce further delay and risk later.
May 2, 2018 at 10:30
you should wait don’t take it .
May 1, 2018 at 14:25
1. what is the lowest number of cases invited in Europe in last several years that you know?
2. is there any difference in density of VB numbers across regions, for example are there more or less real numbers in EU region between 20s and 30s compared to 10k to 20k? or the density is the same
3. I believe we will see VB number in EU close to 30s but I am not sure now any more, rather around 25-26k if not even less, any opinion?
May 1, 2018 at 14:35
1. I don’t know.
2. Yes, you can clearly see that in the data – https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/ceacFY18.html
3. Wait and see.
May 2, 2018 at 12:08
Hi Simon I saw the ceac cut of April 28 and I see: only 3 bulletins to finish DV2018, globally it seems there are only about 10% but for my region (SA) if they talked about 1700 approximate visas not It reaches 60%. (Including AP ando READY cases What do you think about my region SA? I reiterate my gratitude for the space and your support. Thank you
May 2, 2018 at 13:22
1. Not 1700 visas, 1500 visas, 1700 approx case number.
2. THere are 3 VBs left but 5 months of processing.
May 2, 2018 at 15:31
Could you please tell me the chance of EU287XX as percentage? ?
At least, chance of interview as “less than %50 or more than %50.”
Please don’t say “Wait and See” ??
Thanks a lot.
May 2, 2018 at 16:02
Wait and see is the best advice.
May 2, 2018 at 18:37
you have no chance with tha pace of vb and this quota 18.300 – sorry;(
May 2, 2018 at 19:12
Mic dont forget his. Nobody know accurate information about process. Be optimistic. Everybody only guess. After every vb they change estimations and psedeu quotas. If we see 20k visas then many people will explain this with AS AF unused visas. As Mr Brit said, only wait,be patient. Nacara, visa bans, etc. Last 3 months will be different.
May 2, 2018 at 19:13
“Dont Forget this” not his.
May 3, 2018 at 08:31
hey Marta, please don’t affirm what you don’t know…! Hey Mic, you have very good chances to be scheduled, Never listen to trolls here, nobody knows exactly about quota and KCC plans. So be in positive mood and wait.
May 3, 2018 at 09:39
It was really sad to see that words didikoko. Having own opinion is trolling for you?
I would say that you are like child, with crying and shouting arround with a lot of claims to everybody – specially BritSimon. These pretensions to BritSimons – that you didnt apply for DV19 was stupidest thing I have ever seen here. But I would not say it, because I know you can have your own opinions and dreams.
You said you will not come back till next VB, so what are you doing here? You are denying your own statement.
Telling my opinion is trolling? Why? Because I checked datas?
Ofcourse I can be wrong. It does not mean I am trolling. Pace and quota shows that EXACLTY – will be extremly hard to be invited for interview if your number is 25k+.
My number is 25+k aswell. Would be great to see invitation form KCC but honestly I would not expect it now. Better be suprised.
I wish you from the bottom of my heart didikoko you will see that e mail, and will get GC. Really. All the best
May 3, 2018 at 10:33
your opinion means nothing for me…as gipsy’s one on a railway station. We will see what will be. I didn’t see any proof of your quota 18300 and all your calculations are fake without that figure. So stop making your depressive predictions till the 15th of july.
May 3, 2018 at 16:33
I have given the link to the law explaining how the quota is calculated. I honestly don’t understand why you cannot understand that the quota exists, but I can’t continue to spend time trying to convince you of something that is so obvious. There are reasons why the quota can be exceed, and I have explained that too. In response you posted some NONSENSE numbers that you said were the issued figures in some previous years.
May 3, 2018 at 10:38
I can do whatever I want, and I will ask questions – and quota is set formula. If you can not count it that means who you are:))))))))
Go cry to your pillow now, funny guy. Nobody wants you here.
Baby boy, you said you are leaving this blog, so what are you doing here TROLL Boy?
May 3, 2018 at 10:50
no doubts you are a troll
May 3, 2018 at 11:43
Is there a way to mute or block this didikiko Troll?! You said you were done with this blog then be the fuck done with idiotic rants we’re ALL tired of! The data is available for everyone so if you disagree with it, then that is your own issue! Now be gone! May you never get a GC, you clearly lack the basic mental requirements for a relocation in the US. it’d be a pure waste to give to a poisonous mind like yours
May 3, 2018 at 12:04
Please share quota formula with us. Not link please.
And also please share your scientific techniques that you used when saying “EXACTLY – will be extremly hard to be invited for interview if your number is 25k+.”
I am a statistician for 20 years. I am working as a data analyst and PL/SQL programmer. Even in this situation, it is not possible to make such a comment like yours. We have only DATA. Not INFORMATION. Data transforms to an INFORMATION via scientific techniques.
If anybody has a claim he/she should prove it with scientific methods.
Otherwise comments are worthless.
May 3, 2018 at 12:07
aivilo86 Thank you for your wishes. There’s no any proof of 18300 quota. All of you who don’t see the facts and based only on Simon’s predictions (I just remember he is not insider and knows no more of all of us) are don’t have your own opinion. It’s normal.
May 3, 2018 at 16:58
@aivilo86 it is wasting time writting back to someone who said that will never go back, and doing that 2 weeks after LOL. that is 100% TROLL.
this kind of ppl are shame of that blog, I will never forget his complains on Simon because stupid baby didnt filled in DV19 form 😀 OMG :))) childlish thinking.
May 2, 2018 at 18:52
Don’t worry Mic. It would be most likely for you to have an interview. Don’t pay attention to very pessimistic comments. The cut-off for EU may be over 25000 in July. Keep fingers crossed.
May 2, 2018 at 22:19
hi simon thanks for all please can you give me some explaine what do think mean no response
May 3, 2018 at 03:22
I don’t understand your question.
May 3, 2018 at 08:46
heh) How much time? Six clocks;) I’s a joke about RU accent;)
So he asked What does “no response’ mean. Could you Explain him….
May 3, 2018 at 09:04
nobody knows exactly about….
May 3, 2018 at 09:06
What will be..
May 3, 2018 at 12:24
Since the VB progress for AF was slightly lower than expected, what probably will be the cut-off number? Thanks
May 3, 2018 at 13:09
Wait and see
May 3, 2018 at 17:10
Wait and see.
May 3, 2018 at 15:21
Dear Brit. May we think, number of real cases is equal to number of issued visas, roughly? (Derivative rate and no-shows cancel each other) With your past experience can you make a guess. I get such an impression looking at the ceac data.
May 3, 2018 at 17:13
You may guess any way you want. I am waiting to see.
May 3, 2018 at 16:27
The worst thing is here; ??
-Optimists are ultra optimist.
-Pesimists are ultra pesimist.
-The expert (Simon) just says “Wait and see”
May 3, 2018 at 17:38
I would like to offer more certainty – but in reality, no one can.
The pessimists are not taking into account the *possibility* that the quota will be exceeded (which could come from NACARA or AS region redistribution).
The optimists seem to ignore the quota even exists. It most certainly does.
There are other factors too, on both sides of the fence.
There is no certainty on either side. Wait and see is the only sensible answer at this point. I myself had a DV-2014 number that the leading expert at the time was describing as risky. In the end my number went current in June. This process is full of surprises.
May 4, 2018 at 05:33
even in case quota is 18300 your number has very good chances to be scheduled. But this year definitely different and lots of reasons in DATA why 18300 is never exist, who has logic thinking and working with data has concluded that 18300 is impossible quota for 2018. In case it happens this underselected year is going to be one the most underissued by visas in history. Even next pace will be 2100 or 2800 as pessimists predict I will never loose a hope the next will 8k and there’s no other way. For you and ppl like you is better to think positive and believe in common sense, not to group of Simon’s folowers/experts, who never did their own calculations, who don’t have their own opinion and will change their opinion if Simon changes, we will see it very soon. Its classic of genre.
May 4, 2018 at 05:54
You are so silly. Here are the official numbers of issuances from 2008 to 1017 for EU (including AOS). Nothing like the ridiculous numbers you previously posted (which I placed alongside the real numbers so that people can understand what a fool or troll you are):
Year – Official – Dididiot
2008 – 14,788 – 22,960
2009 – 14,241 – 24,648
2010 – 16,083 – 24,745
2011 – 16,378 – 24,015
2012 – 13,093 – No Dididiot number
2013 – 17,296 – 23,607
2014 – 18,904 – 22,703
2015 – 19,811 – 19,095
2016 – 15,207 – No Dididiot number
2017 – 20,516 – 19,914
On this you base your silly assertions.
Source for idiots numbers: https://britsimonsays.com/ask-questions/comment-page-221/#comment-111151
Source for official numbers: https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2017AnnualReport/FY17AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
May 4, 2018 at 06:25
hey Simon, for Britain you have very bad manners, Yes I know those numbers were wrong, AF actually, but I don’t change my opinion. Also I will not insult you. We will back to this conversation at the end of process.
May 4, 2018 at 17:50
@dididodo. Actually – you are in MY blog. You consistently ignore my information and instead come up with ridiculous theories and assertions. You post wrong information to get everyone worked up and then stand back and enjoy the mess you make. So – you are the one with bad manners – and I certainly don’t need lessons in manners or anything else from you.
May 6, 2018 at 09:47
It’s clear to me who you are. especially after your deleting my last comment. And who you are prefer not to mentioned here. Everyone who involved in our debate is made their own decision. Any way in one week here will be new group of luckies and you will continue to be a god for them who knows everything. Just read again fairy tale about the naked king. See you are rude,,,,
May 6, 2018 at 14:49
Your post yesterday had two silly points.
1. That I wasn’t aware of the quota predictions by DV4Roger until recently – even though my earliest predictions gave the quota MONTHS ago.
2. That I changed my predictions after an April 23rd post by Roger – even though it referred to “heated debate” because I had changed my predictions.
Both points are so obviously idiotic and self defeating that they are either trolling or comments of a confused idiot. Either way – I don’t need that stupidity left of my blog to further confuse people. Enough of your nonsense. Really. Stop all your comments and wait and see.
May 4, 2018 at 10:30
I must admit that having been your daily visitor for about a year, I would not expect to have read such words from you, Mr. Simon. It is not OK or shouldn’t have been. I no longer visit here. Thanks for your guide. Just thought you should know.
May 4, 2018 at 17:42
So are you OK with this idiot giving everyone made up numbers and telling them it was true??? Or accusing me of being some sort of spy or whatever. Either he is a troll or a fool – either way, “idiot” is an accurate description. If you don’t like to hear me talking like that – best you don’t read anymore…
May 6, 2018 at 10:37
these words about me, Simon, will costs you some reputation.
May 6, 2018 at 14:38
I stand by these words. You posted more nonsense yesterday (clearly trolling) and I simply cannot be bothered to deal with your silliness.
May 4, 2018 at 10:56
Simon, why are you wasting time for that guy? Just block/ignore him, or mute like aivilo86 metioned.
May 4, 2018 at 06:16
didikoko of course there is a quota. But it is NOT 18300. We will see more than 20K visas at the end of the FY. With or Without NACARA or visa bans. I also think that the quota is not a constant or pre-defined number by formula. It is a range like 19000-20000.
And a I also really wonder something.
In this blog, posts which written at the beginning of FY, 37000 was safe. Then 33000 was in risk are. Then Higher 20K’s is in dangerous.
Today, if someone asks “Is 23000 safe?”. The result is “Wait and See”. Why? It is really WEIRD.
Mr Brit I am respecting your effort. I am following this blog for one year.
It was indispensable for many people. Nobody can blame you of course.
Everyone can analysis data and make an estimation.
My safe number range between 28k-30k.
But wondering yours. I think it is more easy to make an estimation with 9 months data, rather then 2 months data.
I hope all of us take visas.
May 4, 2018 at 06:38
I have almost the same calculations about 29-32 without nacara and ban.
May 4, 2018 at 17:58
Please stop with the nonsense. The formula is published – you have absolutely no reason to discuss the range of 19000 to 20000 – you are literally just making that up from thin air.
I have said wait and see from the very beginning. As time moved on, the data showed many more visas were being issued from relatively few cases. Once that was becoming clear I reduced the ranges and urged caution. I continued to say wait and see. In previous years you will see that I always avoid giving numbers in the final months – my main intent is to give early warning to some that may be blindsided by the sudden cutoff.
Now – as to your cutoff. You keep ignoring what I have explained. We do not know what will happen in these final months. The final cutoff is affected by decisions about NACARA, Travel ban, pace concerns, additional security checks (only started last year). I don’t know the final cutoff – and believe me – NO ONE does. So – WAIT AND SEE.
May 4, 2018 at 19:10
Ok. Thanks for reply. We will WAIT and hope to SEE good things.
May 3, 2018 at 17:56
Nobody know, how many DS-260 were sent between 20,300 and 39,695. No point in arguing without sufficient data. As fun as that sounds – w8`n`see, ladies and gentlemen. Keep your spirits up.
May 3, 2018 at 19:17
I will wait and see Yu, I will! :)) all the best.
May 4, 2018 at 13:19
We actually know but you didn’t care enough to study the data
May 4, 2018 at 21:14
I think this blog is not only to predict the interview or cutoff number , we thank mr. simon for his great support for all of us to prepare our self to pass the interview and get visa
May 5, 2018 at 06:01
Really? Tell me plz, how much DS-260 sent and how much left to process? We`re all have you to thank
May 4, 2018 at 08:37
Hi brit bro dont ignore my question regarding affidavit of support my question was can it possible my host send affidavit of support tharough my EMAIL????? PLESAE HELP ME ND HELP ME
May 4, 2018 at 11:06
May 4, 2018 at 13:48
I answered. If you are not going to read the answers or put in any of your own effort, please don’t expect replies.
May 4, 2018 at 10:35
I wish my case will be current for the next visa bulletin af 3267*
May 4, 2018 at 11:06
To be honest you owe some answers to your loyal blog readers. Therefore, you should share some implicited information in order to prevent such unjustifiable debates. ??
1.Do you have any buddy from KCC to obtain some classified informations?
2.Do you work as an unofficial eployee of KCC to provide survey analyses to them?
3.Share your original calculations/formula with the certain datas previously proven.
4.If you have a stabil calculations/formula, explain the reason of changing your mind about the safe zones are given by you last six months.
5. And don’t get mad to your followers. They are just innocent dream keeper.?
May 4, 2018 at 11:13
Wtf?! He DOESN’T owe you or anybody any f*cking thing! The nerves. He took the time to write this blog, even replies to almost every single inquiry, even when people insist on repeating the same questions without doing any type of research. The entitlement is baffling!!!! The disclaimer says is no official source and only does it to guide and help, which is more than enough. That’s why you can’t do nice things for people! They always feel entitled to more. Smfh
May 4, 2018 at 12:50
??common sense isn’t so common…
May 4, 2018 at 14:19
Mic you are another weak minded here, complains to author hahaha? Simon explained many times. Simon it is amazing how patient you are:)
Mic you asked few days ago, and I answered.
All DATAs are easy to explain (sooner was harder to predict that is why BritSimon said 37k should be ok, but data we have now – changed that), you can find it here, on this blog, look at xartisius’s data.
Compare how many visas are issued till 30.04, how many are “ready”, backlog, and how many “AP”.
With your number you would pray for:
3k+ at least. Remember that interview for each month when you will become current are not scheduled by number from lower to higher.
I wrote “at least”, but 3k+ does not implicate you will get yours. September will be time when cutt off can be any time.
So VB pace should be for your number like 4,3k+. With that pace you will be invited to august.
Can you believe with that pace? SURE?
Is that posibile? Look fo VB pace till today, and think about that by yourself:)
BUT – must happen what I write in point no. 2 below.
It is strange that only guys with high numbers complains about that -saying it is not true, or they are SURE quota will be exceed.
You can believe that quota will be exceeded, sure, why not.It can be, baybe for couple hunderds, But remember there were years where quota was not be even reached.
And thinking that all NACARAS or visas from banned countries, other regions will come ONLY to europe is not best idea.
but MIC – if quota will be 18.300 – like Simon said before(he also said it can be exceeded), if pace will be like now – according to data provided here by xarthisius – cutt off will be shockly soon. Probably july. And we could expect cut off close to 24kEU. Very, very, very low.
May 4, 2018 at 14:52
@kk Mic is just like didokoko or whatever dumb name it is. They want Simon to say “your number will be current next month” because they can’t cope with reality or facts. Two desperate cry babies who need to be comforted and reassured… waste of time.
May 4, 2018 at 15:17
how aggressive you are. I was desperate till I have sorted out the data. No desperate any more. I will go and get my visa. You could scare people here with your depressive predictions. It’s ok. But your wishes that process will ended at 24k or even 28 will happen in your pessimistic dreams.
May 4, 2018 at 13:18
You clearly aren’t a regular blog reader because you would’ve known the answer to the question with number 3 and 4. It has passed a year since the results and if you are a regular blog reader as you say and still don’t know the formula than you don’t read anything.
He has shown and provided the formula many times and the process doesn’t depend on him so that why the calculation changed. All he does is the tries to PREDICT, they are just PREDICTIONS and if you don’t understand the word than that’s your problem.
The final cut-off changed because they slowed the process instead of making it faster which means they have already used most of the visas because the response rate and the derivatives rate is higher than usual. There is still a chance if they decide to include the NACARA or the visas from the banned countries but we’ll need to wait a week or two so we know. If they don’t make a drastic jump on this VB there is little hope for the high numbers.
May 4, 2018 at 13:30
Hey Bot(s) and Pawn(s),
Why are you so jumpy?
Could you please let Simon answer above questions? He might have his own opinions.
May 4, 2018 at 17:39
First. I don’t owe anybody anything. No one is forced to listen to me – they are free to disagree. I do get annoyed when people are doggedly not listening to common sense or coming up with ridiculous theories. When that happens I may lose my temper – but since this is MY blog – that is entirely up to me. So – that answers number 5.
1. What a senseless question. No. No one at KCC knows where the final number will be and I have NEVER claimed to be an employee of KCC or any other connection. The only reason you are asking that is because of the other idiotic “suspicions” which have no logic basis. Please use some common sense.
2. See 1.
3. I linked to the formula – you can see it here: https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-1083/0-0-0-1159.html
ANYONE is free to read and interpret the formula. It’s not a secret – we have known about the formula since 2014! The problem is that the formula needs some data gathering, analysis and arithmetic, and some people are too darn lazy to even read the link.
4. I have already explained that in detail in several posts.
5. As I point out above – I’ll get mad at whoever I want, if provoked by stupidity or trolling.
May 4, 2018 at 13:19
BritSimon = ILeftMyHeartInSF ….. common sense 🙂
May 4, 2018 at 14:24
one IP, you are troll
May 4, 2018 at 14:49
I could NEVER be Simon because i don’t have the altruism or patience to deal with f*cking retarded morons like you who can’t even help themselves or use their brains ? im not the helping time & the more i read some posts the more i know why. No tolerance for idiocy
May 4, 2018 at 17:12
What an idiotic comment. Do you think I don’t sleep?
May 6, 2018 at 21:31
I’ve just got an opportunity for a great job in my country, which I obviously will grab it.
I got EU28000.
Regarding all the situation with pace, possible early cutoff etc., is it a smart move to make DS260 changes now?
Do I need to make that change if I change the job? Thanks.
May 6, 2018 at 22:03
You don’t need to change it, but if you do that would not cause a delay.
May 10, 2018 at 10:38
as you mentioned before, The appeal is being heard by the Supreme Court at the end of April. is there any news about that?
May 10, 2018 at 14:01
May 11, 2018 at 15:34
Previous article you said you think Oceania would only get to 1500 not current?
Is that still your view
Looking at the data here it seems similar overall numbers for the global culm (noting Europe a bit slow) have been tracking similar in F17 to F18 and F17 that went current by now.
I am especially focused on Oceania which seems to be going the exact same pace up to now. Unfortunate June DB was not my friend again.
May 11, 2018 at 20:00
Current happens when a region has enough visas to meet remaining demand.
DV2017 had 1450 selectees (winners and derivatives). Many don’t respond and a few get refused. From those 1450 selectees, they issued 766 visas – just short of the quota of about 800.
DV2016 had 1500 selectees. Similar story – everyone happy.
DV2018 has 3863 selectees.
Need I say more?
May 11, 2018 at 23:30
Thank you for you response and this webpage.
I have looked through most of this page so apologies if explained this elsewhere. Why such expansion is selectees (and presumably derivatives if there are 3863 for 2500 case numbers).
Also is qouta firm @ 800? If so looking at numbers is it best to just give up with a high number at this stage, i know it always a ‘wait and see’ but dont want to delay inevitable
May 11, 2018 at 23:47
Sorry found your section of quotas. I think that may answer my question.
When looking at the data on CEAC Data, what does ‘ready’ mean.
Is it reasonable to extrapolate the ‘issued’ rate from earlier case numbers, ie issued in most recent data is 487 from ~1200 cases including ~200 that are newly added cast numbers.
May 12, 2018 at 00:26
Why do they overselect – we don’t know – they have done it before (DV2014 and DV2015 were the last two times). The quota actually went down for OC this year.
The quota is based on a percentage – 1.578%. So – it is about 800 at 50,000. My latest article discusses the *possibility* that there could be redistribution from other regions, or visas above 50,000 from NACARA – but without that there is no reason for the CN to go above 1500. If there were a redistribution it might help things a little – but cases such as 2000+ have no chance.