So it looks like the Visa office just went nuts, and whilst they didn’t quite make all regions current this is a HUGE increase in every region.


I’m extremely surpised – this is not at all what I expected – but I was smart enough to know that it would not be what I expected (which is why I don’t predict based on the math right now). There is no logic to the numbers, its not explainable from a math point of view – so the only thing I can imagine is that they are seriously trying to get as many cases through as possible in the embassies that can handle cases. It’s as radical as the December 9th announcement – it’s not a “scientifically calculated” number it’s just a hail mary for any of you that understand the American Football analogy.


So this is why I don’t predict – the math has been thrown out the window – will that last, will it continue , I don’t know. We’ll have to wait and see!


CONGRATULATIONS to all those that just went current.


Those that are current, and have forms processed early enough, can normally expect their 2NL in the next 2 to 3 weeks from now. The new no documents procedure is still a little unknown, so we will have to wait and see exactly how that goes.  This is supposed to be the same every month. VB from the 8th to the 15th of each month, and 2NLs in the second half of the month. For the last few months there have been 2NLs in daily batches. I would normally expect all the interview 2NLs to have all been sent by the end of this month, but we can see recently they are exceeding that to try and get as many interviews in as possible. They can be sent right up until the last day of the month, and even the first few days of the following month during exceptional times.

To those new to looking at VBs, let me explain what the “except” XXX country means – and you can also read this post on how to read the visa bulletin.

Processing is spread out over the full year. You can see the progress of the two previous years in this post about basic questions.  However, some countries have a high number of selectees and those selectees are concentrated in the lower case numbers. For various reasons, mainly to do with embassy capacity, KCC slow down certain countries as compared to the region. So – in Africa, any case with a case number shown as under the new number can be interviewed but for cases from Egypt, that number is lower. That isn’t a big problem, it just “slows down” those countries a little more than the rest of the region. Since selectees from those countries all have lower case numbers, this slowing down does not present any risk. It does not (at this point) mean they won’t allow all selectees an interview from those countries.

To understand why some countries get lower case numbers, read this article about the lottery draw process.