The new visa bulletin has been released and it is almost an exact copy of the previous two visa bulletins, with the exception of an increase for Algeria (in the AF “except” section).
Now. I know this is going to fuel all sorts of questions, panic and rumor. Let me just say that mostly, the rumors will be incorrect, the panic unnecessary. So let me make some points.
1. As I mentioned this past weekend on my live, I expected to see no change in at least 3 regions. Why? because the numbers that we saw in the first bulletin were obviously very high. They gave several months numbers in the first VB for some reason – and not increasing those numbers should not be a shock.
2. This is not because of the government shutdown.
3. This is not because Trump said he wanted to cancel the DV lottery back in 2017.
4. This is not because aliens from another planet have invaded.
I did hope to see some movement in AF and EU regions, but no “damage” is being done because those numbers are still high enough to allow embassies to schedule cases below those numbers as DS260 processing continues.
Now, hopefully you will stay calm and realize all is well.
The other BIG news from this VB is that we have the selectee numbers finally. And the big news there is that the corrections needed because of my lawsuit have been made. Cuba has “no selectees” (which is correct, but will have an impact in South America and UK has 1.3k selectees. Now – that UK selectee number for the UK is about 4 to 5 times higher than it should be, so it is confirmation of what I have already explained, that UK high case numbers are there because the government have, almost unbelievably, made another mistake in this process with these numbers. This is real Keystone cops stuff.
From a total selectee point of view they have selected 129,516 which is too high, and again what I “expected” as I mentioned this last weekend. I think this will need some explanation, so look for a video on this topic today.

Those that are current, and have forms processed early enough, can normally expect their 2NL in the next 2 to 3 weeks from now. This is supposed to be the same every month. VB from the 8th to the 15th of each month, and 2NLs in the second half of the month. For the last few months there have been 2NLs in daily batches, but we seem to be moving to a more normal procedure where almost all the 2NLs are sent before the end of the month, with just a handful being sent earlier this month. I would normally expect all the interview 2NLs to have all been sent by the end of this month, but we can see recently they are exceeding that to try and get as many interviews in as possible. They can be sent right up until the last day of the month, and even the first few days of the following month during exceptional times. One quick point, the 2NLs tend to come out in an approximate alphabetical order, based on the city name of the embassy. So, Addis and Accra tend to be early, and an embassy such as Yaounde would be later. As ever, just be patient…
To those new to looking at VBs, let me explain what the “except” XXX country means – and you can also read this post on how to read the visa bulletin.

November 18, 2025 at 13:56
Is it possible that Case Number 49000 from Egypt has a chance
November 18, 2025 at 15:05
Maybe – we don’t really have any data at this time.
November 7, 2025 at 12:05
I can’t wait for the January update. My number for Australia is in the 3300’s and it looks unlikely from what I can see that it will become current. That really is the worst! You have a moment of elation when you get the letter that is then followed by a major “down in the dumps” feeling!
Miracles do happen though, so fingers crossed…
I’m holding off on submitting anything as I am on F1 now.
November 7, 2025 at 19:41
You are not going to learn much more on January than you already know. You are at the end of all the OC applicants – almost the highest number. They only way for you to become current is if OC is able to increase it’s quota because other regions underuse theirs. That is sort of possible, but not that likely, and we won’t know it much before June/July.
October 24, 2025 at 08:38
Hi Simon, thank you so much for this wonderful resource and to the community too. I wanted to let you know by DV2026 was approved at my interview today Friday 24th October at the Consulate in Hong Kong – China. Here’s the timeline:
1. Selected in May for DV 2026.
2. Region OC (Oceania) #749
3. I filled the DS260 one week after draw.
4. August Visa Bulletin said my number would be current in October.
5. My second notification email was sent 18 August 2025 confirming my appointment in Hong Kong on 28th October 2025.
6. I got an email on September 15th changing the appointment date to Friday 24th October due to the administrative schedule. I didn’t ask for the change.
7. Went to the consulate today. Formal part of the interview was less than 5 minutes. Prior to formal interview and after handing over my original documents, I had to pay the fee. Lucky I bought physical credit cards as they don’t allow phones inside. Usually I wouldn’t have them as I use my phone to pay.
8. I can collect my passport at the couriers office (they use this process in Hong Kong) by Friday 31st October.
Again I can’t thank you enough for the all the information and advice and good humour you provide through this site.
Thank you and good luck to everyone else
October 24, 2025 at 09:59
Congratulations and best of luck!
October 21, 2025 at 02:01
Hi Brit,
Thank you for your great analysis and continued updates.
Our family (my wife, our 3-year-old son, and I) was selected for DV-2026 with case number EU28XXX, and we submitted our DS-260 forms on May 9th, 2024.
Considering the current pace of DS-260 processing and the lower overall global quota due to NACARA/NDAA effects, do you think a case in the upper-mid 28K range could still reasonably expect to be scheduled by the end of FY2026 — assuming all forms are processed early and documents are complete?
We’ve looked at previous years (DV2023, DV2024, DV2025) and noticed that the regional cut-offs for EU were somewhat volatile. In your opinion, what are the main variables that could push the EU cut-off higher (or lower) this year — especially considering embassy capacity and selectee response rate?
Thanks again for your insight — it really helps us plan ahead as a small family hoping to make this dream a reality.
October 21, 2025 at 10:25
It is too early to make accurate predictions for DV2026 – and there are a couple of factors that will probably remain that make predictions unwise this year. A couple of factors are:
The travel bans. Right now about 20%+ selectees are banned, mainly in AF and AS regions. Those impacts could mean that there are quotas left over which could be redistributed elsewhere – helping mainly EU as well as OC and SA. Of course, bans can be extended or removed at any moment, I have no idea what Trump will do next. However, the government have to plan to redistribute and they have to want to redistribute. Last year they were content to throw away 5000 visas, and didn’t seem to worry about that at all.
And that is the second factor – the willingness of the government to waste visas was a shock in DV2025. They did not even try to have a good result for EU last year. They left the VB ridiculously low in DV2025 even though in DV2024 they let the VB go ridiculously high for EU. I can’t “calculate” that sort of misbehavior. So whilst I will calculate probable mathematical safe ranges for DV2026, I really need to urge caution in thinking we know what will actually happen.
October 21, 2025 at 13:55
Brit thanks.
We have similar thinking about metrics and seeing the situation 🙂
Please publish your reserved calculations and analytics according to your professional opinion, I understand that it is with a reservation and the situation. I only hope that if we measure back to last year, that EU28xxx is a realistic number, last year was terribly restrictive. We follow you 🙂 and wait for further events and hope for our number.
Greetings to you
October 21, 2025 at 14:09
I generally wait to see the CEAC data before publishing predictions. The distribution of the cases can vary – and I will only have that once I get the CEAC data – on January 1.
By the way, unless the holes distribution is very different, 28K in DV2026 is better than 28K in DV2025. That is because the density is surely lower, since EU selectees increased a little (3.5%), but the number range is significantly higher (48K versus 41K).
October 18, 2025 at 16:07
Hi Simon,
Since November 1 the new State Department rule requires that immigrant visa interviews must take place only in the applicant’s country of residence (or citizenship if no IV post is available). That means all Russian and Belarusian DV selectees are now restricted to Warsaw for their interviews.
Given that Warsaw’s capacity is quite limited, could this potentially affect EU region progress overall? For example, could we see a situation where the EU cutoff goes well above 30K, but many cases around 25K assigned to Warsaw still never get scheduled simply because the post can’t handle more interviews?
October 18, 2025 at 16:37
Well Warsaw coped with the increase in interviews previously, so I imagine they could do that again – but it will be a decision. I can’t predict what their decision will be…
October 17, 2025 at 11:57
What are the % chances that South America will be current for DV 2026?
October 17, 2025 at 12:03
Oh my. Surely you realize how unwise I would be to try and answer such a question…
October 18, 2025 at 08:06
But in your video you said that South America will be the only region that will be current
October 18, 2025 at 09:05
I said maybe, not will.
October 16, 2025 at 21:56
What would you say are the chances for AS19***? From Jordan
October 16, 2025 at 22:25
Might be OK, depends on the travel ban
October 16, 2025 at 14:21
Hi Simon with the full number of selectees published and the new bulletin, being a uk selectee with a Number in range of EU33k – 34k would you say this is a positive range to be in? (Ds- 260 completed) if we have also processed our ds-260 are we able to apply for the lottery for dv2027 when it opens?
October 16, 2025 at 14:29
That number is not in a totally safe zone, but it certainly has some chances as far as we can tell right now. The EU numbers (excluding the UK) seem to go up to about 48K, but we don’t know yet how the density will decline in the later numbers. We will have more data on January 1.
There could be some extra visas available from the travel banned countries too – but that will be a matter of how long the ban is in place.
No harm in entering DV-2027 as a backup plan…
October 15, 2025 at 19:20
Hi Simon, thanks for all the information, really helpful!
As everyone here, I’m trying to analyze my chances (while knowing that anything can happen, but still some estimates are always nice 🙂 ).
My number is AS18*** (which is usually borderline), from a country that doesn’t have a travel ban. Given the large number of very big Asian countries that are under a travel ban (Afghanistan, Myanmar, Iran, Yemen, etc), it seems like half of the Asia selectees wouldn’t be even able to apply for the green card. IIUC, this means my chances are higher this year, is that correct? What are your projections on my case number? Thanks!
October 15, 2025 at 20:53
I think you understand things well, now we have to wait and see.
October 15, 2025 at 16:20
Hello Mr Simon
I am DV26, AF 41900 Case number with Egypt as my home country.
Based on the published numbers, any hopes for me this year?
I know you don’t believe in hopes, only numbers (I am an old follower :D).
Thanks,
SL
October 15, 2025 at 16:37
Yeah you probably have some hopes – now it’s “wait and see” as I’m sure you already know…
October 16, 2025 at 00:54
Hi Simon. What was the highest case number, based on the polls, for Africa DV26?
October 16, 2025 at 09:04
About 105k
October 15, 2025 at 14:56
Hello, wise Simon. I always follow your ideas. Given the number of people elected in the European region, should I dream of an EU 21xxx file number? My whole family is focused on this. Thank you so much in advance for sharing your ideas.
October 15, 2025 at 15:05
That number is not bad at all. Just be patient and you should get a chance.
October 15, 2025 at 14:35
Hi, Simon. There’s a really confusing part about the whole visa bulletin and selectee numbers. My case number is OC32XX. When I counted the total number of selectees from Oceania, they were 3178. I really do not understand why my case number is higher than the total selectee number from the OC region. Can you kindly shed more light and tell me where I stand right now. I’m really hoping to be current before the end of the fiscal year.
October 15, 2025 at 14:57
OK, some explaining needed.
The 3178 number is selectees, which INCLUDES derivatives. That means there are about 1500 selected cases with an average of about 2.1 people on each case. So – if we assume that the highest case number is about 3250 (based on the poll), that would mean the density is just under 50%, meaning the “hole” rate is just over 50%).
Now, your chance is sort of based on your position in the region. Your number is probably in the last 2% or 3% of case numbers, meaning about 97% of selectees have a case number lower than yours. That’s not good of course. That means you are very much at risk unless the region goes “current”.
Now – will the region go current – well, in a normal year, no. 3178 is far too many people for a quota of about 900 (generously). However, if other regions don’t use all their visas (perhaps because of the travel ban), that might give you a little hope.
Bottomline is that you will simply have to wait and see what happens. Good luck!
October 15, 2025 at 12:33
Hi, Simon!
I was wondering, knowing the total number of selectees, if EU37xxx is too high of a case number?
Not sure if I understand how the system works and which numbers are ‘safe’ and which are not.
Thanks in advance!
October 15, 2025 at 12:48
I certainly wouldn’t put 37K in a “safe” range. You will have to wait to see how things move over the next few months…
October 15, 2025 at 12:33
I calculated an EU selectee density (#Selectees / MaxCN) of 91.2% (adjusting for UK overselection by dividing UK selectees by 4, and assuming a max CN of EU48k based on DV26Poll by Xarthisius).
For DV25, we had a selectee density of 105.3%.
So with my CN of EU25k, there should be less people in line before me than with EU25xxx in DV25, right? I understand these numbers to be some good news for 2026EU25xxx. Am I correct in that assessment?
October 15, 2025 at 12:47
Well your math is incorrect (because density should be on cases, not selectees), but you got to the right conclusion. EU25K is probably better in DV2026 than in DV2025 – but the density will only really be known in January, and the country limits could mean the density between the two years is similar with a longer tail…
But anyway, unless the government decides to waste many visas again, your number should be OK.
October 15, 2025 at 11:50
Thank you Simon
If the chance of being selected is no more than 1% I calculate that to be approx 325k entrants from the UK. Or have I miscalculated?
Many thanks in anticipation
October 15, 2025 at 11:56
Yes you have miscalculated, but it’s not totally your fault.
First, you have to understand that UK chance of selection was at least 4x what it should have been. So it was between 4% and 5%.
Second, the 1303 selectees is probably around 600 cases, maybe 650.
So – if we assume 4% chance it would mean about 15000 entries, with around 15k derivatives on those entries – 30k people in total. That is about what I expected.
October 15, 2025 at 11:44
What you think is the chance for 2026 AS23xxx
October 15, 2025 at 11:57
You have some chance.
October 15, 2025 at 10:58
Hi Simon
Regarding the news issued today by the US State Department regarding DV2027 that applications will open in the coming months.. Do you think there will be applications for DV2027 or not… Because I think there will not be a lottery for the year 2027 because they want to stop it from the beginning, just like the ban will be reviewed after 90 days and nothing happened
October 15, 2025 at 11:48
There will be a DV2027 entry period. Just be patient.
You never heard me say the ban would be reviewed in 90 days. That was other people who got worked up about that statement….
October 15, 2025 at 10:30
Hello, thanks so much for this data analysis. I am a DV26 UK selectee with an extremely high case number (126xxx), so am assuming I will not get the chance to interview. My plan is to not submit the DS-260 to avoid any issues with a dual-intent interpretation and future non-immigrant/tourist travel to the US. If for some reason Europe goes Current this cycle (I know, unlikely) – will it be too late at that point to submit my DS-260 then and expect it to get processed in time for an interview? What’s the standard KCC processing time for a DS-260 form? Thanks in advance.
October 15, 2025 at 11:47
I think your plan is probably OK, but unfortunately if you don’t submit the DS260 until after we see the final VB (July 2026) it would not be processed in time. So you are going to have to consider the gamble at some point and if immigrant intent is a problem for you, then that is something to consider.
October 15, 2025 at 10:12
Surely it seems those around af44k won’t be near interview or?
October 15, 2025 at 11:45
That’s a good number.
October 15, 2025 at 10:00
Hi Simon, what does it mean for Turkey. Selectee numbers are decreasef from 4,194 to 3,191 in 2026
October 15, 2025 at 11:44
That’s a good thing.
October 15, 2025 at 11:47
Hello Mr. Simon. Could you briefly explain to us why this reduction is a good thing?
October 15, 2025 at 11:57
Less people to be disappointed.
October 15, 2025 at 14:40
Also, can you analyze my chances. Not saying you are a magician or anything, but the numbers (selectee) are pretty confusing in relation to my case number. Also, the whole concept of density and how it impacts cases is pretty confusing as well. I just need to know what my chances are.
October 15, 2025 at 09:58
@Britsimon ,thank you so much for the updates.
October 15, 2025 at 15:07
Hello Mr Simon.
I have come to say thank you for your guidance to I and my family for dv2024 AF448xx we went for interview got our visa but due to some health issues we could not travel earlier but now we are finally in America (OHIO)
October 15, 2025 at 15:21
Welcome to the USA!!! Best of luck to you John.