The new visa bulletin has been released. It shows no movement in the three larger regions – although Asia is effectively current already. I am a little surprised that AF and EU did not increase, but I imagine this is because of the pause. However, the Small increases for OC and SA show us that the pause cannot be the only reason for the lack of increase – so we must consider embassy capacity too. Of course, embassies set their capacities shortly after the pause was introduced, so that could be the impact of the pause – i.e. not paused by the DoS, but more by embassy reaction to the DoS statements about the pause.
Those that are current, and have forms processed early enough, can normally expect their 2NL in the next 2 to 3 weeks from now. This is supposed to be the same every month. VB from the 8th to the 15th of each month, and 2NLs in the second half of the month. For the last few months there have been 2NLs in daily batches, but we seem to be moving to a more normal procedure where almost all the 2NLs are sent before the end of the month, with just a handful being sent earlier this month. I would normally expect all the interview 2NLs to have all been sent by the end of this month, but we can see recently they are exceeding that to try and get as many interviews in as possible. They can be sent right up until the last day of the month, and even the first few days of the following month during exceptional times. One quick point, the 2NLs tend to come out in an approximate alphabetical order, based on the city name of the embassy. So, Addis and Accra tend to be early, and an embassy such as Yaounde would be later. As ever, just be patient…
To those new to looking at VBs, let me explain what the “except” XXX country means – and you can also read this post on how to read the visa bulletin.
January 21, 2026 at 10:51
Hi Brit.
Do you think the SA region will advance more than the others in the next VB?
January 21, 2026 at 12:02
I don’t know.
January 13, 2026 at 08:19
Does this bulletin outcome in any way change your perspective on how serious/long the pause may be?
January 13, 2026 at 09:00
I’ll paste an answer I just gave to a similar question.
“OK – let’s look at the evidence.
When the pause started I was thinking it was temporary, because of the law, and the comments on Noem, Rubio etc. Simply the way it was described as a pause was important. The same people want to end DV, but they were careful to say “pause”.
Then the memo’s came out and both DoS and DHS confirmed it was a pause while a review takes place. The review can’t find anything significant, and let’s face it – it is obvious to a nine year old that DV is not a fast way for people with bad intentions attack the USA. The MIT/Brown incident itself is now clearly understood to be a personal grudge rather than terrorism.
Then there were other clues that I wanted to see.
The scheduling (which has continued up until now).
The embassy comments as they were interviewing and placing people on 221g. They are generally in the dark, but just following the instructions they were given to place the cases on 221g. No special insight has come from comments.
Then the VB came. The advantage of a frozen VB for the government is that it reduces the number of people that are affected by the pause. A pessimistic view of that would then say that is because they wanted to reduce the number of people who might sue them – because courts have generally held that people can’t complain about not being scheduled if they are not even current.
But the VB wasn’t totally frozen. It did have some movement in two regions and a country (OC and SA moved, as did Egypt). Although we don’t have really good backlog data now (because of CEAC), it is clear that the AF VB is above the capacity of most embassies. Asia is current already, so the only region that seemed like an increase was needed was EU.
So yes, my confidence level gets knocked a little because of EU not moving – but really – that is a small factor in an otherwise positive landscape toward the pause being just a pause.
I hope the detailed answer is helpful. “
January 13, 2026 at 05:50
Some people think the pause will burn cases because the bulletin didn’t move forward, and they believe the pause may last until the end of the fiscal year.
What do you think? Do you still think that pause wont take that long?
January 13, 2026 at 09:01
I’ll paste an answer I just gave to a similar question.
“OK – let’s look at the evidence.
When the pause started I was thinking it was temporary, because of the law, and the comments on Noem, Rubio etc. Simply the way it was described as a pause was important. The same people want to end DV, but they were careful to say “pause”.
Then the memo’s came out and both DoS and DHS confirmed it was a pause while a review takes place. The review can’t find anything significant, and let’s face it – it is obvious to a nine year old that DV is not a fast way for people with bad intentions attack the USA. The MIT/Brown incident itself is now clearly understood to be a personal grudge rather than terrorism.
Then there were other clues that I wanted to see.
The scheduling (which has continued up until now).
The embassy comments as they were interviewing and placing people on 221g. They are generally in the dark, but just following the instructions they were given to place the cases on 221g. No special insight has come from comments.
Then the VB came. The advantage of a frozen VB for the government is that it reduces the number of people that are affected by the pause. A pessimistic view of that would then say that is because they wanted to reduce the number of people who might sue them – because courts have generally held that people can’t complain about not being scheduled if they are not even current.
But the VB wasn’t totally frozen. It did have some movement in two regions and a country (OC and SA moved, as did Egypt). Although we don’t have really good backlog data now (because of CEAC), it is clear that the AF VB is above the capacity of most embassies. Asia is current already, so the only region that seemed like an increase was needed was EU.
So yes, my confidence level gets knocked a little because of EU not moving – but really – that is a small factor in an otherwise positive landscape toward the pause being just a pause.
I hope the detailed answer is helpful. “
January 13, 2026 at 05:17
Hi Brit.Thanks for your assistance.My country of origin was placed under partial ban.My DS260 was processed but my case number is not yet current.In the event that l receive 2NL should l proceed with the interview?
January 13, 2026 at 09:03
Partial ban means fully banned for immigrant cases such as the DV.
So for most people, attending the interview is a waste of time and money. I don’t recommend attending while the travel ban exists unless you qualify through an exemption such as having a second non banned passport.
January 12, 2026 at 19:36
Hello sir
Did anyone get a new visa after the pause?
January 12, 2026 at 20:03
No.
January 12, 2026 at 17:59
Hi Brit,
Just FYI. In the chart, you put the numbers for February, not March
January 12, 2026 at 19:26
Got it – thanks!
January 12, 2026 at 17:22
Disappointing VB.
(1) Any hope / how much hope left for EU261xx?
(2) I noticed the VB is dated January 5, when not that many interviews have gone out yet (per dark hole CEAC data). Do they make the cutoff decisions before the CA/VO date (here: Jan 5)?
January 12, 2026 at 19:29
1. Yes, some hope – how much – well we will have to wait and see. We sometimes see “random” jumps from month to month – so there is not much sense obsessing about the 11k with 6 months to go.
2. Yes the numbers are usually calculated early in the month, the embassies have to report capacity by the end of each month.
January 12, 2026 at 17:02
Thanks for the update!
But how should we interpret this? Is the pause lifted? I left some comments in a previous post about my case (I’m a student and want to go in the AOS route), should I start the process or still wait?
Thanks!
January 12, 2026 at 19:30
The pause is not lifted no. So the interpretation is that they moved the VB a small amount for two regions and a country exception, but not much else. That shows “some” movement, just not much.
January 12, 2026 at 15:10
thank you so much for the update.
January 12, 2026 at 14:45
Why the numbers for EU are so low , in comparison with the previous years? How likely and when my case number EU15666 will become current?
January 12, 2026 at 15:09
I can only assume embassies have set their capacity low, as I mentioned above.