The “October” bulletin has been released. It includes details of case numbers that are current for November interviews.
As usual, some will be shocked at the progress, some will panic, some will rejoice. For those panicking – this is only month TWO of a TWELVE month process. The numbers will change each month until the final VB of the DV2018 year (published in July 2018). So – calm down.
A couple of points, most regions have continued at the approximate pace set at the beginning. The new way of processing DS260’s seems to be allowing better (more logical) progression in OC, EU, SA and AS regions. AF region is different – so I will explain that.
Interviews cannot be scheduled for a case until the case is current AND the DS260 is fully processed. KCC sets the VB numbers based on how many cases have had their DS260s processed. So – if they look at the 1000 cases, how many of those 1000 have their DS260s processed. If there are only 200 cases ready in that 1000 cases, then they will look at the next 1000 cases and so on until they have enough cases that are ready to meet the approximate capacity for the embassies in the region. This means that for October, KCC made 8500 cases available (probably around 1800 interviews).
In November there are more of the first 8500 cases now processed, so those cases will now be scheduled and they have added only 100 case numbers to the VB. It does not mean that anything has changed with high case numbers, it is only a matter of pacing the interview over the full year. So, no need to panic!!
Why does this happen in AF region and not so much in other regions – well that is two things, first, AF region selectees tend to be a bit slower to submit their DS260s than other regions. Secondly, the cases in AF region are harder to complete background checks because the record keeping systems in some AF countries are not up to “modern standards”.
The other thing to remember is that three regions (AF, EU and AS) have some countries that take a large allocation of the selectees in early case numbers and those countries have no cases in the higher case numbers. During the draw process those countries are stopped. That means the density of cases in the three regions becomes less in the higher case number ranges and the VB progress is faster later in the year for those regions.
For those that are interested in understand density and the draw process, I explained in this in detail in a series of posts that can be found here. This was from a previous year – but the principles are the same.
Those that are current, and have forms processed early enough, they can expect their 2NL in about 1 to 2 weeks from now. I know I am going to get a lot of people who will ask me this exact question – so let me say that again. 2NLs will be sent in about one or two weeks time – that means the latter part of the month. The schedule is that VBs are published between the 8th and the 15th of each month, and 2NLs go out from the 15th to the end of the month (most typically around the 20th to 24th). This is the same every month, so there is no need to ask me.
To those new to looking at VBs, let me explain what the “except” XXX country means.
Processing is spread out over the full year. You can see the progress of the two previous years in this post about basic questions. However, some countries have a high number of selectees and those selectees are concentrated in the lower case numbers. For various reasons, mainly to do with embassy capacity, KCC slow down certain countries as compared to the region. So – in Africa, any case with a case number shown as under the new number can be interviewed but for cases from Egypt, that number is lower. That isn’t a big problem, it just “slows down” those countries a little more than the rest of the region. Since selectees from those countries all have lower case numbers, this slowing down does not present any risk. It does not (at this point) mean they won’t allow all selectees an interview from those countries.
To understand why some countries get lower case numbers, read this article about the lottery draw process.
Read this link if you are unsure how to read the visa bulletin
September 12, 2017 at 12:50
Hlw Brit !!!!
I’m 2018 winner from Nepal n my case is current….
When I opened ceac.state.gov , I saw 2 account of mine one with COMPLETED and another sated START NOW …
I’ve have no derivatives …how did it happen ????
September 12, 2017 at 12:55
Subscrbe
September 12, 2017 at 12:58
hi brit!
I am Asia(Burma) Dv winner!
My case number is below 10800.
I submitted ds 260 form on 8 June.
1.When will I expect my 2Nls?
2.My case number is safe?
3.I have a chance’to get 2Nls?
September 12, 2017 at 13:08
1, 2, 3 – “wait and see”
September 12, 2017 at 12:58
Im a winner from EU with cn 319** , with this pace do i still have a chance for the 2NL ?
September 12, 2017 at 13:08
Yes – read the article.
September 12, 2017 at 13:01
What a surprise
September 12, 2017 at 13:01
Thank you for this post. This is only 1900 more cases for Europe.
1. Does this means that they haven’t even started processing a case no. EU8XXX submitted in May?
2. Does KCC unlock the DS260 form if they have already started processing it or only if they haven’t processed it at all? I want to ask them to unlock my form again to change my son’s passport number (the current one is expiring) and change a part of a street name where I was living 20 years ago. I recently figured out it was entered incorrectly. I would appreciate your kind reply.
September 12, 2017 at 13:07
1. No
2. They will unlock at any time until the interview is scheduled.
September 12, 2017 at 21:02
do you think they wont unlock after interview is scheduled?
September 12, 2017 at 22:56
I know KCC won’t. Only the embassy can at that point.
September 12, 2017 at 23:22
i’m 42xx EU , havent got any interview date yet, should i unlock my case asap what do you think?
September 12, 2017 at 23:47
I have no idea about your case. If you need to change something, do it now.
September 12, 2017 at 13:30
HI Dear Britsimon!
my CN is 2018AF49XX with DS submitted 17 july. Do you think I will be part of november interviews?
September 12, 2017 at 13:38
Maybe.
September 12, 2017 at 13:32
my case number is AF800x from Ethiopia….so when do you think the interview will be scheduled for me based on your experience?
September 12, 2017 at 13:37
I don’t have a prediction – but you can use some judgement of your own now that we have two months released…
September 12, 2017 at 13:39
I don’t like the way they doing it this year. Any other previous years I would have easily been in October interview with my case numbere being just over 4500 for EU region, but this year I will have interview in December which sucks especially considering ds260 submitted literally within 3 days of DV lottery results. Surely a lot of people feel the same and I fell the pain for those with high numbers.
Never mind, life goes on, another Month extra to wait that’s the only way to deal with it.Patience is the virtue.
September 12, 2017 at 14:03
In previous years people were current, but could not be interviewed because they were waiting for their DS260 to be processed – sometimes they waited for MONTHS after they were current. Is that a better way of doing things? I think not.
September 12, 2017 at 13:50
Hi Simon,
So is that analysis (37k safe zone limit) still valid for EU region?
September 12, 2017 at 13:54
I think it’s not.
September 12, 2017 at 13:58
I would be seriously worried if over 30k
September 12, 2017 at 14:00
Yes – as the article says – nothing about the pace changes that at this point. If you have a 10 gallon bucket, you can pour water in slowly, or fast, either way it still holds 10 gallons.
September 12, 2017 at 13:52
HI Britsimon! my CN is AF 39xxx have a chance?
September 12, 2017 at 14:00
Yes
September 12, 2017 at 13:56
Hello britsimon
I have submitted my DS July
My case number is 1224
Do u think I will be the part of November I am from Afghanistan
Thanks
September 12, 2017 at 14:01
I don’t know – wait and see.
September 12, 2017 at 14:04
Hey Brit, my case number is EU000035XX, So if I get it right, I should be scheduled for November, right? 🙂
September 12, 2017 at 14:14
Yes – if you submitted your case early enough to be processed. “Early enough” varies by case. An accountant in Germany is probably faster to process than someone who is a nuclear weapons expert with travel history in Iran and North Korea.
September 12, 2017 at 14:49
Is there any aproximate date, on which they will start sending emails for interviews? 🙂
September 12, 2017 at 14:54
Did you read the article?
September 12, 2017 at 17:03
Sorry, I was a bit too excited, read it now fully, thanks for the help, keep it up! 😉
September 12, 2017 at 14:23
Hello Brit, thanks for your fast update. I asked this question after previous bulletin declare. So, I would ask you again if it is okey for you. one of your previous posts which explaind safety numbers are still valid ? For example, For EU , under 37XXX , still okey for us?
September 12, 2017 at 14:39
Hi Brit,
Thanks alot of the article. I am still wondering how did you so quickly type that article and post it before we even knew the VB for November is out. Thats amazing!
September 12, 2017 at 14:42
Hi Brit,What AS region only 1750 was added for next visa bullation,because Asian region having around 16k case,
September 12, 2017 at 15:16
Can you explain background checks? thank you in advance
September 12, 2017 at 16:06
They check the information given on the DS260 against various sources for security reasons as well as to verify what is claimed by the applicant. They will then send the results of such checks to the embassy to be considered during the interview.
September 12, 2017 at 16:53
In your experience, assuming the applicant was honest and fully disclosed an entry denial and visa cancellation in the DS260, would such a history discovered during the background check generally affect the ultimate case decision?
In this particular instance, entry denial was 10+ years ago, and non-criminal. It was on the grounds of insufficient evidence of intent to leave/appearance of intent to reside in the US without the proper visa. In other words, grounds which would clearly not be problematic if a green card were to be issued.
The initial issue was resolved years ago, a new 10-year travel visa was issued by the USA, and multiple entries have been made regularly by the individual to the USA since that time, without incident.
Thoughts? Probably not a history to be concerned about, eh?
September 12, 2017 at 16:58
“grounds which would clearly not be problematic if a green card were to be issued.”
This.
September 12, 2017 at 16:38
Hi
My case number is 2018AF00029700.with DS submitted 20 MAY
Can you tell me about my chance and in which month I’ll get my 2nl
thanks
September 12, 2017 at 17:04
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-basic-questions
September 12, 2017 at 16:47
AS cases including last month vb case or new 1400?
September 12, 2017 at 17:00
Including.
September 12, 2017 at 16:52
Hi my dear friend Brit,
My case no is 2018eu38xx
And resubmit is 17 August.
Do you think that I’ll receive 2nd NL in coming weeks. Thanx a lot. God bless you.
September 12, 2017 at 16:58
Wait and see.
September 12, 2017 at 17:12
Hi Brit Simon. I am perplexed about the Africa case development. Why did it go up by only 100 to 8,600 whereas in previous years it averaged to around 13,400 (from a similar starting base). I am trying to predict when to expect a 24,000…..
September 12, 2017 at 17:15
You wouldn’t be perplexed if you bothered to read the article.
September 12, 2017 at 17:39
I did read the article (multiple times) and I thought you were referring to Africa having high case numbers (that has always been the case) given it includes a wider remit that takes into consideration the various idiosyncrasies across the continent. Where I was confused was that adding 100 indicates that a greater concentration in this 0-8600 cohort are in fact being processed. Whereas in the past (based on the distribution), not enough from the initial 0-8000 cohort were available and so historically numbers shifted to c13,000 where more people meeting criteria (e.g. submitted DS260 etc) would be legible earlier on…. I had predicted a 24,000 by around March/ April but this could be as late as July…. (or there may not be a way of even predicting).
September 12, 2017 at 17:39
AF progress is shocking. Britt do you mean the progress will increase exponentially in coming months. What’s the impact on AOSERS?
September 12, 2017 at 17:52
It really isn’t shocking. It’s understandable. I explained it.
AOS cases cannot submit their cases until they see their case is current in the VB.
September 12, 2017 at 17:53
Do you have any info about DV2019.
September 12, 2017 at 18:19
Details will be published in the next couple of weeks.
September 12, 2017 at 18:45
Hi Britsimon, i submitted ds260 on the May and my case number is 90xx. Please should i expert my interview date in November? Thank you.
September 12, 2017 at 19:13
HI Dear Britsimon!
my CN is 2018AF26XX with DS submitted 10 august . Do you think I will be part of november interviews?
September 12, 2017 at 20:24
I don’t know. Wait, and see….
September 12, 2017 at 20:26
DV2018 cases are not yet in CEAC
September 12, 2017 at 21:01
Hi Britsimon
Can you help please, i can’t eat or sleep I’m very stressed because the progress with 2018AF CN is very scary, do you think they will even call AF35××9
September 12, 2017 at 22:55
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
September 12, 2017 at 21:08
Hey Brit!
My case number is EU11XXX. Based on the numbers in previous year, I expected my interview to be in November but it seems this year the process is gonna take some time. My questions are,
1. Would it cause a big delay if I went to the States with my tourist visa and unlock the form and change all the necessary information and request to have my interview there instead?
2. I am going to apply for a university in the USA. If I get accepted, is it smart to get a student visa and go and continue the green card process there or is it better to wait for my green card to be processed where I already am?
September 12, 2017 at 22:58
1. Bad idea. That would cause denial.
2. Wait.
September 12, 2017 at 21:49
Hi simon am aselectee of dv 2018 but stii i haven’t fill ds260 form yet because of my spouse passport needes renewed and it takes almost two months so am worry ,what can I do ? Can i fill ds260 alone until her passport is renewed.
Thanks
September 12, 2017 at 22:59
No problem in waiting
September 12, 2017 at 22:12
Is your analysis (37k safe zone limit) still valid for EU? If no, why? Thank you so much! 🙂
September 12, 2017 at 22:59
Nothing changed.
September 13, 2017 at 01:14
How about for AOSers? Above you mentioned “In previous years people were current, but could not be interviewed because they were waiting for their DS260 to be processed – sometimes they waited for MONTHS after they were current.”
Base on that this year if there are releasing the interviews after processing DS260 isn’t it has a negative impact for AOSers? For example 2015 AOS current on August was able to get the GC even by Sep 29. There was still visa available. If they are releasing numbers slow doing a CP will have a better chance of getting the interview? or regardless CP or AOS has same chance of catching the visa number before it finishes.
September 13, 2017 at 01:50
This is month 2. A lot can change over time. There is no point trying to speculate at this time.
September 13, 2017 at 00:34
my case number is AF47000 from Sudan… when do you think the interview will be
scheduled for me based on your experience?
September 13, 2017 at 00:42
I don’t have a prediction.
September 13, 2017 at 00:51
Hello,
I was depressed all day today, since I woke up to find out about the new cutoff for Africa. I have been checking the VB, and patiently waiting.
I am in the US, aiming for AOS. My case number is 2018AF10xxx. I was hoping that my number becomes current in November.
I am worried, as my I20 expires end of December, and I am supposed to graduate by then.
1- I know that you are being asked this question a lot, kindly can you estimate when my number might become current?
2- should I try to extend my I20, or graduate and file for OPT? I just did not want to create confusion and find myself concurrently filing for OPT and AOS.
Thank you a million
September 13, 2017 at 01:11
1. Really – I don’t know
2. I really don’t think you need to worry – you only need to be in status when they accept your filing. But – I am not an AOS expert – check this link for better info. http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2018-aos-only.336256
September 13, 2017 at 02:36
Thank you
September 13, 2017 at 01:58
Hey Brit,i was Request Unlocked my ds 260 form yesterday, i didint get mail from KCC, kcc ill mailed to me after unlocked my ds 260 form?
September 13, 2017 at 02:15
Yes
September 13, 2017 at 02:51
Good morning Brit. I’m from UAE – and my case number is ABD2017XXX and submitted DS 260 on 10th last month. Can you please help me out to comprehend VB in regards to when I should count for my interview? Thanks a lot.
September 13, 2017 at 03:01
That is not a DV lottery case number. I edited it for your privacy.
September 13, 2017 at 13:59
in UAE
September 13, 2017 at 03:09
Thanks Brit.
September 13, 2017 at 03:45
Which date are the next applications opening?
September 13, 2017 at 03:53
October. Wait for the announcement
September 13, 2017 at 03:57
Brit i have unlocked my ds 260 form and resubmitted it in jun 15 my case no is 4617as so does it hamper my processing or scheduling my case
September 13, 2017 at 04:02
Probably not.
September 13, 2017 at 04:02
Hi Brit, just curious. Do you think the visa bulletin gonna increase in the same pace. For example october num for nepal is 700 and it increased to 1400 for november. My question are
1. can we expect the limit of visa for nepal will be 8400 or there is the chance for bigger number too
2. If the increase in vb number for nepal is random, can we expect to see increase in vb number with months or it will be decreasing
3. Wondering after how many months we can roughly guess the cut off number.
4. Any guess if there is good or bad chances for higher number compare to 2017.
Thank you so much for your time
September 13, 2017 at 04:22
Hello Brit,
What’s the limit date we have to enter the US after we get our visa? I mean, is it 6 months after the medical exams or is it before the criminal record expires (mine is only valid for 3 months)?
September 13, 2017 at 04:34
The visa expiry date will noprmally be set as medical date plus 6 months.
September 13, 2017 at 05:25
Hi I’m from Egypt MR case no 22xxx Is there a risk and when you expect to be the date of my interview
September 13, 2017 at 13:47
Wait and see
September 13, 2017 at 06:13
Hi Simon, when I was completing the DS260, the address of my high school diploma is accurate in the diploma, but I have two certificates then courses there address I wrote it was inaccurate because the papers were not with me now they are with me, unlock DS and repair or not? Please tell me, I’m very worried.
September 13, 2017 at 13:44
No need to worry correct it if you want.
September 13, 2017 at 07:38
Hello Britsimon does the operation mark done 10 12 years ago…make any effect for interview ???
September 13, 2017 at 13:38
No
September 13, 2017 at 16:56
add me bro in fb.. i am also edv winner from nepal…..nabin k bhattarai
September 13, 2017 at 11:37
Hi, Thank you for give us so much information about this topic, but I would to know if I will have chance, to get my appointment, I belong to Sudamérica, my case number is 13xx, I sent my DS-260 form in may 4, but I had to unlock and sent it again in august
September 13, 2017 at 13:26
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
September 13, 2017 at 12:10
hi brit after how many days police character certificate validity ends.
September 13, 2017 at 13:25
Usually 6 months.
September 13, 2017 at 12:24
Hi Simon
My case Number is 83XX and I am from Asia so I would expect to be scheduled for interview by Jun or Jul 2018, is it right?
Another question, we have already submitted our DS-260 but when I click the button to pay the fees I am getting an error, so I believe the fee payment shall be available after the case being processed by the KCC and before the interview?
September 13, 2017 at 13:24
I have no prediction.
You pay fees at the embassy on the day of interview.
September 13, 2017 at 12:34
Haloo brit
i submitted my ds 260 early june and my case number is AF46++ but when i check my ceac it says i add applicant whatsup can you explain to me
September 13, 2017 at 13:22
There are probably two rows – the one you completed already and one other. That is common at this stage – just ignore the second applicant.
September 13, 2017 at 12:46
HI Dear BritSimon!
my case number is EU14XXX
I’m not worried about the interview time. I can wait. but when the October bulletin came out, I was worried. how do you think, I will get the visa?
September 13, 2017 at 13:21
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
September 14, 2017 at 06:02
sorry, but I did not find a specific answer to my question. given the situation with the visa bulletin this year, do I have a chance to get an interview? my case number is EU14XXX
could you specifically answer? Thank you!
September 14, 2017 at 13:16
britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
September 13, 2017 at 13:23
HI BRIT,
I HAVE BEEN SELECTED FOR DV2018 WITH CASE NUMBER AF297XX.
CAN I ALSO APLY FOR THE NEXT DV LOTTERY CAUSE I THING MY CASE NUMBER IS TOO HIGH TO GET AN INTERVIEW
September 13, 2017 at 14:35
Yes you can enter DV2019 with no impact to the DV2018 case
September 14, 2017 at 14:44
Hi BritSimon, back to Kader’s question above and referring to your previous posts AF297xx still not that high to get an interview correct me if I am wrong.
Thanks
September 14, 2017 at 14:47
I have made my thoughts very clear…
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
September 14, 2017 at 17:01
Hi Brit, based on your previous posts “The percentage would apply to the final global number – so you can apply these percentages to 50,000, and in the end they may give slightly more in each region if the global total goes slightly above 50,000 (by using some of the visas allocated to NACARA).
AF – 43.15%
EU – 36.63%
OC – 1.58%
AS – 15.61%
SA – 3.01%”
My interpretation for safe number for example for AF region is 21000 linked to the estimated percentage 43.14%. I am considering this only IF all cases from 1 to 21000 are accepted and granted visa counting too some cases inckyde derivatives as well.
Thanks for all your efforts and making things clear to all
September 15, 2017 at 02:02
No – that is completely incorrect. You are not taking into account non responses, refusals, derivative rate or holes.
Read this:
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
September 13, 2017 at 17:00
Thank you Simon, you help us, you reassure us, and I thought there were no such people anymore! Thank you, be healthy and your family !!!
September 13, 2017 at 19:24
Hi simon
i have a question
My dv letter i wrote my name as
Maged abdullah alhussaini
And i wrote it in the ds260 same with the dv
Which 3 given names
But in my passport and certificates is
maged abdullah mohammed alussaini
Which is fourth name
Is that ok?
Or should I unlock the ds260 again?
September 13, 2017 at 19:25
The DS260 should match the passport. Make sure it does.
September 13, 2017 at 20:37
When will the 2017/2018 list be release.
I applied 2016.
September 13, 2017 at 22:09
Results were announced in May.