So many people have asked me the same question – where are the predictions.
Well KCC have had a number of problems this month. First they sent out 2NL emails and somehow they messed up so that some people (many people in fact) received their email that said to check the ESC site and when they checked, their appointment letter was not there. That is now resolved – but it took over 1 week to get that fixed.
Just after the 2NLs are sent out the normal process is that the CEAC data is updated with the 2NLs. The cases which were sent the 2NLs are marked as being “in Transit”. That update is usually one large batch update – all the regions and all the cases. BUT not this month. A few days ago, KCC updated about 30 cases in Asia region to in TRansit, but no others. So – I have continued watching for that update but it has not happened – and THAT is why I have not released predictions.
Why is the in Transit update important? Well, as I have explained before it tells us three crucial things that I use in my predictions.
- The number of interviews scheduled in the month, per region.
- The latest response rate
- The number of interviews being used by “backlog” cases.
So – without those three things I cannot have such an accurate prediction and have to make some assumptions. However, I have done that for some of the regions and whilst I HOPE people will understand these are more guesstimates than predictions, I know that some will latch on to these as predictions and if I am wrong, the naysayers will simply revert to their mistaken belief that this process is mysterious and unknowable.
So – that said – here is what I GUESSTIMATE.
AF could be as low at 39000, but as high as 44000 (so 39XXX to 43XXX). If they go to the high end of that range it will show they have realized the no show issue. The no show issue is impacting the visas issued number for AF more than other regions – so I really hope KCC have noticed it and are doing something about it. Egypt will increase to something around 28500 to 29500 and that is where I expect it to end the year.
AS region should be 8000 to 9000 – again I hope to see the high end of that range. I believe Nepal will see the increase of its limit to around 7000, and in that case there could be another small increase for the September interviews since I think Nepal should hit the 7% limit at 7600 or less.
OC and SA region will both add around 100 case numbers (so OC will be 13XX and SA 12XX)
EU region is more problematic to guess. KCC went very low on the number last month. I think that was a pullback of the pace as we saw for May interviews – but because I have not seen the in Transit update I cannot confirm my assumption. So – I can see EU being anywhere from 37XXX to 39XXX. If that is the correct range I am thinking there will be some additional increase in the July VB also (September) – that is unlike last year where they finished EU VB progress in the 11th month.
So OK – again – I know no one is reading by now – but please understand these are guesstimates – not really predictions as such.
Good luck to everyone still waiting. We are now just a few weeks away from seeing that all important last VB.