So many people have asked me the same question – where are the predictions.
Well KCC have had a number of problems this month. First they sent out 2NL emails and somehow they messed up so that some people (many people in fact) received their email that said to check the ESC site and when they checked, their appointment letter was not there. That is now resolved – but it took over 1 week to get that fixed.
Just after the 2NLs are sent out the normal process is that the CEAC data is updated with the 2NLs. The cases which were sent the 2NLs are marked as being “in Transit”. That update is usually one large batch update – all the regions and all the cases. BUT not this month. A few days ago, KCC updated about 30 cases in Asia region to in TRansit, but no others. So – I have continued watching for that update but it has not happened – and THAT is why I have not released predictions.
Why is the in Transit update important? Well, as I have explained before it tells us three crucial things that I use in my predictions.
- The number of interviews scheduled in the month, per region.
- The latest response rate
- The number of interviews being used by “backlog” cases.
So – without those three things I cannot have such an accurate prediction and have to make some assumptions. However, I have done that for some of the regions and whilst I HOPE people will understand these are more guesstimates than predictions, I know that some will latch on to these as predictions and if I am wrong, the naysayers will simply revert to their mistaken belief that this process is mysterious and unknowable.
So – that said – here is what I GUESSTIMATE.
AF could be as low at 39000, but as high as 44000 (so 39XXX to 43XXX). If they go to the high end of that range it will show they have realized the no show issue. The no show issue is impacting the visas issued number for AF more than other regions – so I really hope KCC have noticed it and are doing something about it. Egypt will increase to something around 28500 to 29500 and that is where I expect it to end the year.
AS region should be 8000 to 9000 – again I hope to see the high end of that range. I believe Nepal will see the increase of its limit to around 7000, and in that case there could be another small increase for the September interviews since I think Nepal should hit the 7% limit at 7600 or less.
OC and SA region will both add around 100 case numbers (so OC will be 13XX and SA 12XX)
EU region is more problematic to guess. KCC went very low on the number last month. I think that was a pullback of the pace as we saw for May interviews – but because I have not seen the in Transit update I cannot confirm my assumption. So – I can see EU being anywhere from 37XXX to 39XXX. If that is the correct range I am thinking there will be some additional increase in the July VB also (September) – that is unlike last year where they finished EU VB progress in the 11th month.
So OK – again – I know no one is reading by now – but please understand these are guesstimates – not really predictions as such.
Good luck to everyone still waiting. We are now just a few weeks away from seeing that all important last VB.
June 7, 2015 at 10:36
Hello Sir, any updated GUESSTIMATE for AS?
June 7, 2015 at 16:45
No – I’m sticking with what I said – and official numbers will be here soon enough….
June 7, 2015 at 19:58
I am in the 51XXXXX quotas is puedo be in July ?
June 8, 2015 at 02:03
It is possible for a September interview.
June 8, 2015 at 15:40
You stated “Nepal should hit the 7% limit at 7600 or less.” How do you know how many people from Nepal have got their Visas for dv 2015? I just wanted to know if officials post such information publicly.I am too a winner(case no 82**) but with little hope of getting the 2NL.
June 8, 2015 at 18:44
I obtain the data from the CEAC system. That data is available to the public (case by case) and I have a program that gathers data for all cases. Here is the latest CEAC data
June 9, 2015 at 00:17
thank you for your work
do you think that AS 103xx safe or risky ?
June 9, 2015 at 00:56
There is some risk at that number….
June 9, 2015 at 01:37
Hi Simon, do u think over AS10000 is risky? Mine is AS10012x
June 9, 2015 at 02:05
“risk” is relative. It is nowhere near as risky as AS13000 for example, but I cannot say it is 100% safe either.
June 9, 2015 at 03:45
Hi Simon, Are these guesstimates for the final VB or just the next VB? (hoping just the next)
June 9, 2015 at 14:18
June 10, 2015 at 14:05
what happened to Asia??????????
June 10, 2015 at 14:09
Asia, my friend is officially screwed! What is your CN?
June 10, 2015 at 14:16
June 10, 2015 at 15:18
June 10, 2015 at 14:47
Your predictions are accurate Simon. You predicted AF 43xxx and the cut-off of August is to AF 44250.
Tell us then, as you wait for the VB estimate the final cut-off, what can we expect for the final cutt-off of September ?
Please my 582xx ! It is safe now ?
June 10, 2015 at 15:09
Yes, they were 250 above my highest range – I am pleased about that! Your number has a good chance still – if these numbers had come in at 39XXX your number would have been riskier, now you can only wait and see….
June 10, 2015 at 16:46
you are owesome!!!i would like to be as you brit!!!
waiting for final cutt-off guesstimate!!
June 10, 2015 at 16:51
Thank a lot Mister Bri, we wait now your predictions for the cutt off in September
June 10, 2015 at 22:15
I’m not sure I will predict the final – wait and see….
June 10, 2015 at 17:47
what do you think about 2015AF58xxx
June 10, 2015 at 21:19
Got a good chance for next VB…
June 10, 2015 at 19:35
There are around 5151 AD between AF 44250 and AF 59900. Do you think KCC gives a cut-off below 59900 ? For my part, it will be surprising. I had a tool like what US Embassy in Yaoundé, there are only 683 visas to distribute on June 5. Certainly the same in other African embassy.
Do not you think there is a big jump in the cut-off final to catch visa delay has to offer ?
June 11, 2015 at 14:05
i was hopping to be current in august or september but now i started to get worried with this CN 2015AF587XX
June 11, 2015 at 15:13
Yes you still have some chance we must wait and see
June 12, 2015 at 19:01
Hi Simon dont you think That kcc wont achieve the goal which is 50000 visa ??
June 12, 2015 at 19:07
The region that is lowest (compared to the goal) is AF region. By increasing to 44250, they have addressed that – and will probably do the same in September – so they are trying to hit the goal…
June 12, 2015 at 19:13
so do you think their goal is just to reach 50 000 ?????
June 12, 2015 at 20:28
That is the official goal – but previous years have exceeded that slightly.
October 26, 2018 at 07:59
I am Af43xxx when will be call for interview
October 26, 2018 at 13:37
October 28, 2018 at 17:29
Akon, same thing for me !