Why I will NOT predict the final cut off for DV2015
I wanted to make clear the reasons why I have decided not to issue a prediction (or guesstimate) for the final Visa bulletin.
Over the last few months I have been estimating and predicting with a high degree of accuracy (although not perfect). I truly hope that has offered some comfort and insight into the process, so that people knew what to expect. It has been my intention to help people by giving them facts instead of inaccurate and baseless guesses. This has never been done before to such a degree of accuracy, because previously we did not have the same level of data available in previous years. I have also explained my method so that anyone could do the same with the CEAC data I publish.
However, this last VB is different in a few ways – the stakes are higher – so that has meant I have been considering whether or not to publish predictions.
Firstly, my success in predicting the VBs will mean that people place credibility on my predictions. I could be wrong, and if so I could mislead someone into believing they were safe when they are not, or vice versa. Honestly – I don’t want that responsibility. What I say, doesn’t count – the official VB is what matters. Since I am trying to help people I don’t want to add to anyone’s stress level. So – it is beter to wait a few extra days and have the real final VB, that me give a prediction and that be wrong…
Secondly this VB is the last VB for the year. This is the last opportunity that KCC will have to hit their targets – and unlike a normal month they know that any case they schedule for this month must be completed within the month. A case that needs AP for any reason cannot be resolved after September 30th. So –the last VB can be a bit more “aggressive” – and therefore might surprise us. I believe KCC might schedule more interviews than normal on the assumption that cases will no show, be refused and be placed on AP.
Lastly. This is not that easy! As things stand I am genuinely unsure of what will happen in each of the 5 regions. I will have a better idea after the 2NLs go out, but the current system errors could have an impact to the CEAC data which is key to my predictions. So – it is unlikely I can get comfortable with a final number very far ahead of the official VB – so with all the above points considered, it is best we “wait and see” what happens with the final official numbers.
I have given some general guidance on the “am I safe” post – but I am going to try to not get any more specific than those comments. I hope everyone will understand my motives and decision. The official VB will be published around 9th to 13th of July. The numbers released in that VB are the final numbers for September interviews – there will not be a change in the VB published in August.
Good luck to everyone still waiting!
June 17, 2015 at 22:25
thank you so much , i apreciate ur efforts that u have expand in here Sir , i really understand ur point of view … whether the final VB is good or terrible , its not the end of life there is always other opportunities waiting for us
June 21, 2015 at 12:59
For mi it’s the end of the Lif .
June 21, 2015 at 17:20
Of course it isn’t…
June 17, 2015 at 22:43
Hi Simon,
Just a quick question. When is the next spread of 2NLs to be expected?
June 17, 2015 at 23:04
I expect the 2NLs to go out within the next week or so – perhaps 10 days at the most
June 18, 2015 at 21:45
hi brit so when the 2Nl you will estimate more the finel cutt off right ??
June 17, 2015 at 23:15
Thank you for all what you did, we appreciate your efforts, thank you very much.
June 17, 2015 at 23:22
hello brit thank you for your great work
i read this post but i don t inderstand the last paragraphe (The numbers released in that VB are the final numbers for September interviews –there will not be a change in the VB published in August) can you explain me.
thank you
June 17, 2015 at 23:44
THe next VB to be released (around July 10) will be the last VB for DV2015. Whatever cut off is in place in that VB will be the final number – there will be no further adjustment after that point.
So – the VB released in August will set the case numbers for DV2016 – October interviews.
June 17, 2015 at 23:41
that a mean cutt off september is 44250 or what ??????
my case number is 2015af44317
June 17, 2015 at 23:45
NO – that is not what it means – I am talking about the next (final DV2015) VB.
Your number is safe.
June 18, 2015 at 00:18
OMG thank you Mr brit
June 17, 2015 at 23:47
so sir we can say the case <50000 have 100% chance to passe interview ?
thank you , i have read the 'i m safe ' i juste want to kknow
if my conclusion are true thank you sir
June 17, 2015 at 23:58
THat is what I said – yes…
June 18, 2015 at 00:09
Thank you so much britsimon for ur efforts,can you please tell us wots ur prediction about the last vb?
further question,2015af51478 is that number safe?
loooooooooooooool
thank you
June 18, 2015 at 00:23
Did you read the article above? Even the title?
June 18, 2015 at 10:20
I just kiddin with ya sir 🙂
June 18, 2015 at 13:44
Haha!
June 18, 2015 at 00:50
Dear sir last question from me is there any hope for Egypt to increase number in the last vb or there is no hope ?
Can any thing change after the 2nl go out?
Finally thank you very much for your effort in the last months .
June 18, 2015 at 05:14
I can’t be sure about Egypt – hence why I say “wait and see”
June 18, 2015 at 02:18
Hi Brit, Will you post how many visas have been issued for AF at the end of the month, that way we can see how many are left? Thanks again for all the time you’ve dedicated to help others. You are an amazing man!
June 18, 2015 at 05:15
Yes of course I will…
June 18, 2015 at 04:05
Hello Simon
Thanks for all the support you gave..
I hope yr not stopping giving the CAEC data updates.. ??
June 18, 2015 at 05:15
No of course I am not stopping.
June 18, 2015 at 04:53
God bless you Simon.
we will wait and see the last VB.
June 18, 2015 at 05:02
hi simon i totally understand your situation and thanks alot for wt ur doing
just one question how many remening visa must be issu for AF to fil hit the qouta ??
thanks
June 18, 2015 at 05:15
around 9000+
June 18, 2015 at 07:51
What you said Britsimon is correct. It is too hard to predict last VB,however as per your article Am I safe you have done the best to analyses this scientifically. With my CN 50XXX8X am believing that September is my month, and we will be called for an interview. Also, I believe those higher CN around 55XXX to 60XXX will get an opportunity also.
You have done the best throughout the year, and I am happy to say that this website has helped me a lot to understand this DV.
May God bless you abundantly.
June 18, 2015 at 08:08
Hi Simon,do the 9000 visa include June,July and August?how many people can the remaining visas take?
June 18, 2015 at 14:10
9000 visas can take 9000 people…..
June 18, 2015 at 08:35
Hi Brits. You have really done well. May God almight continue to uphold you. Please I have two questions to ask.
1) I sent a mail to unlock my ds260 form for my beneficiary but I got a response that there system is faulty,are they going to reopen it when the system is working fine or I need to send another mail for reminder?
2)is it < 50000 that is save or <55000? Please clarify this as abdallah as said. Thanks
June 18, 2015 at 14:00
1. I don’t know, this isn’t a normal situation.
2. Several previous years have exceeded the 50000.
June 18, 2015 at 15:13
Hi simon
What is the number case of AF between 34xxx till 70xxx ??
June 18, 2015 at 16:38
Please check the full file published on Jan 1.
June 18, 2015 at 08:45
Hi Simon
what do you think about AS how many remaining visas predict?
June 18, 2015 at 13:58
2500 to 3000 left.
June 18, 2015 at 08:50
Hi mr simon
please i have a question
how much time does the kcc take to process ds260 form because i submitted mine late in 24th of march 2015 and i am worried
My CN is 2015AF58XXX
thanks in advance
June 18, 2015 at 10:26
Don’t worry when they reach ur case number,they gonna notify u relax
are u from Morocco?
June 18, 2015 at 13:53
If you get current you should be ok.
June 18, 2015 at 08:52
i mean if i get current next month will i recieve 2NL ???
June 18, 2015 at 08:53
I will predict the final cutoff for Oceania:
1325 / 11 months = 120.5
1325 + 120 = 1445
June 18, 2015 at 08:56
and i think i am not able to understand english well so please mr simon links don’t help me alot
thank you so much
June 18, 2015 at 13:51
All my articles can be read in various languages, by clicking the translate button in the lower part of every page.
June 18, 2015 at 09:07
Thank you for the hard work you’ve done. We look forward to see in next year forum as well. Though CN 745x won’t make it for Nepal (I think), hats off for the endeavor and love to us!
June 18, 2015 at 13:49
Good luck!
June 18, 2015 at 10:55
Hello Brit,
my cn is 75*** but I am hopeful that I will be current.
thank you
June 18, 2015 at 13:42
https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/
June 18, 2015 at 11:55
you put me in anxiety area :/
your prediction always make me less nervous and more confident
however
i read your ” AM I SAFE ” post and still my number in ” wait and see rang ”
hope me the best . 🙂
AS103XX
June 18, 2015 at 13:42
Good luck!
June 18, 2015 at 11:59
Hi Simon
My CN is 518xx is it safe?
Thank you so much for every think
June 18, 2015 at 13:41
https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/
June 18, 2015 at 12:23
Hello Sir,
Will the same trend we have seen for dv2015 on visa bulletin numbers be more or less for Dv 2016. Is there possibly for Af going current next year
June 18, 2015 at 13:40
A region going current depends on having less selectees than visa slots for the region. At first glance at the DV2016 numbers, I can make some quick guesses, but it will be some time before we can validate the guesses. Whilst EU selectees has been reduced significantly for 2016, AF selectees have not been reduced by a large enough amount to cause the region to go current in DV2016.
June 18, 2015 at 15:00
How many visa must be issue for AS to fill hit the qouta ??
thanks.
June 18, 2015 at 16:38
around 8000 to 8500 – but someof those will be used by AoS cases which we cannot see in the CEAC data. So – AS will probably reach the limit at below 8000 in CEAC.
June 18, 2015 at 18:18
Hi Simon,
1. What do you mean with *region to go current*
2. Why the EU selectees have been reduced for 2016?
3. My wife’s CN is EU10xxx. I think the 2NL will be between September-November
Thank you for everything you are doing for us. God bless you.
June 18, 2015 at 18:22
1. When a region goes current (toward the end of the year) it means there are enough visas to meet remaining demand.
2. Because there were too many selectees chosen in DV2015 and DV2014 – which meant some people were left without a visa.
3. Probably about right.
June 18, 2015 at 19:25
HI BRIT…im just reading this post and i think that you souldn’t abandon us at this moment,should you?
i understand your position but you are not responsible of what kcc is doing at all…your work is helping us a lot and we need your prediction even they are guesstimates…
not to publish about the final cut-off or not won’t change our situation…we still prefer to see your prediction although many incertainty and other factors…even you are wrong or not,we wil continue to appreciate you even after dv 2015….please don’t abandon us beause waitin is killing us…
thanks once more…
June 18, 2015 at 19:42
I fully agreed with Brit. On why he will not predict the final vb what he has don’t in the am I safe post is enough for now this man has done a good work though out the year, we need to give him some time to start working on the 2016 cases. This is said with out malice to any one.
June 18, 2015 at 19:53
i understand but its better to end wiht dv 15 before starting next dv!!!
June 18, 2015 at 20:22
You can look at https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/ to get an idea of what I think. BUT I just did not want to try to be predicting with any precision….
June 18, 2015 at 20:27
I am not abandoning anyone, but I am quite sure I am not going to post predictions. Part of the point is that, for this last VB, it is beter to wait a few days extra to get the official numbers, rather than my predictions or guesstimates. WE will also see the official numbers in about 3 weeks from now…
June 18, 2015 at 19:28
please don’t abandon us beause waitin is killing us…_like lipippo say_
June 18, 2015 at 20:23
I am not abandoning anyone…. I’m still here….
June 19, 2015 at 06:11
Hi brtisimon, my CN is AF49xxx from DV2016. Am i safe for that DV ? Cause there is less of selectees this year than others, it make me fear a lot.
Thanks for all.
June 19, 2015 at 14:26
As a guess I would say you are safe, but we will know better later, in a few months.
June 19, 2015 at 06:34
Simon,how are and thanks for every of your effort. Please when is it likely that kcc will put their system inorder? Kindly inform us as well especially most of us waiting for 2NL. Thanks
June 19, 2015 at 14:25
The 2nl is not delayed. I would guess the issue will be fixed by next week.
June 22, 2015 at 07:55
There are at least several persons from belorussian forum who called KCC on friday, 19/06 and got an interview date for August. KCC told them that all the 2nls will be sent out till 30/06.
June 22, 2015 at 16:00
Yes – that is normal.
June 19, 2015 at 09:21
Hello Brit,
You have made a wise decision and I want to congratulate you. We are going through difficult times because of the stress of this DV 2015. We need much prayer especially us with AF boxes beyond 65,000.
Your predictions were for us dogmas and we strongly believe. Now, you give us the time to focus in the hope that the good news will come early July. Thank you and God bless you!
June 19, 2015 at 14:22
I’m glad some understand. Good luck!
June 19, 2015 at 13:49
Hiii Brit ( dv 2016 winner )
i did a mistake in ds-260 application
in my living adresse where i live , I switched up 2 number from 384 TO 348
Do i need to unlock the ds-260 to correct it ?
my case is 25XXX
June 19, 2015 at 14:12
That is very minor, but you have plenty of time to correct it without causing delay, so unlock and update it.
June 19, 2015 at 15:11
af48222 is it safe ? how %
thank you the best
June 19, 2015 at 15:30
https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/
June 20, 2015 at 03:15
so safe and 100% please
June 20, 2015 at 03:16
mee mtoo my case 49XXX
June 19, 2015 at 17:53
Dear, simon
We know that once iran get around 3800 visa….so i would like to know is there any chances to get more then 3500 visa for nepal now….is there any chances that nepal get more visa as a sympathy visa because of earthquake in nepal….just a stupid question….but i hope u will reply …..cn 7850 from nepal …any chances…..just give up or wait n see….
June 19, 2015 at 18:27
The year that Iran got 3800 was underfilled – so Iran was allowed to run. I don’t think that could happen for Nepal, and certainly not out of sympathy because of the earthquake – but yeah – wait and see….
June 20, 2015 at 12:53
Simon, since EU selectees are less in 2016, last VB of 2015 can go above 42xxx?
June 20, 2015 at 13:58
DV2015 and DV2016 are not connected to each other.
June 20, 2015 at 16:19
Hi Brit please what is the interview cost for dv 2015 selectees in Ghana and will that differ from dv 2016?
June 20, 2015 at 17:56
The interview fee is not changed – $330/person
June 20, 2015 at 21:28
so sir 49XXX , 100% sir ?
June 20, 2015 at 23:09
Mark. You have asked me the same question 25 times. I keep answering and posting links where I have answered your questions in a VERY clear way. Please – read the links I gave you, or simply wait for 3 weeks to see the final number.
June 21, 2015 at 00:58
Hi simon
what is the NACARA Visas ?? does it connected to DV program
June 21, 2015 at 01:10
NACARA is a program that is allocated 5000 of the original 55,000 visas allocated to the DV lottery. However, the Nacara program does not use all 5000 – so our quota calculations assume DV will actually take around 52599 to 53000.
June 21, 2015 at 14:25
Dear Simon
What is AF qouta for 2015 ??
June 21, 2015 at 15:17
21500 to 22000
June 21, 2015 at 02:11
sorry sir , juste i want to be sur about my case 🙁
soorry sooryy
June 21, 2015 at 15:12
In 3 weeks you will be sure.
June 20, 2015 at 22:04
Hello, tell me why it is considered that the quota for Europe this year will be the same as in the past, and not as in 2013 for example or even less?
June 20, 2015 at 23:04
https://britsimonsays.com/the-regional-quota-mystery-solved/
June 21, 2015 at 06:39
Hi Brit,
Do you know the quota for SA and how many visas remain for this region?
Many thanks,
June 21, 2015 at 15:08
Quota is around 1350/1400. About 400 left.
June 26, 2015 at 09:56
Hello Brit, with 400 visas left, do you think VB for SA will reach 1400-1500? Thank you.
June 21, 2015 at 08:17
Do you think it will arrive 12,700 for Asia ??
June 21, 2015 at 15:04
Wait and see…
June 24, 2015 at 09:32
I am waiting and very worried but I lost hope :'(
Currently we are in the United States, my husband f2 visa won the DV lottery for 2015 and I am his wife I have F1 visa and 2 babies . So we were happy that he won we thought that we only going to adjust our status. But unfortunately it seems that the numbers are so slow .. It’s devastating specially that only one month left.
June 24, 2015 at 16:20
In three weeks the final numbers will be published. IF you do get current, you will need to be ready to act fast to process your adjustment of status. Good luck!
June 25, 2015 at 09:35
Thank you so much .. I wish for you all the best cuz you helped alot of ppl 🙂
June 21, 2015 at 12:09
How many visas will KCC give for DV-2015 Europe region? Your prediction?
June 21, 2015 at 15:20
19500 to 20000
June 21, 2015 at 20:41
Thanks
June 21, 2015 at 20:52
but you still think that the bulletin would not be in September?
June 22, 2015 at 02:02
I don’t understand what you mean.
June 21, 2015 at 20:25
hi brit what that mean that quota of AF 2015 is 21500 to 22000 ?? explain plz
June 22, 2015 at 02:04
A quota is an allowance of visas – in this case the total allowance for issued visas for the year for AF
June 21, 2015 at 20:33
I had read post about (The regional quota mystery – solved????) and I want to sak you one simple qustions :”If you think so with Roger(qouta 19500 for ES) why do you thinf that will not be next step for coming VB ES? “
June 22, 2015 at 02:03
What do you mean?
June 21, 2015 at 21:38
hi brit,
how many visas rest to africa region in this time? thanks.
June 22, 2015 at 02:01
Remaining? around 9000
June 21, 2015 at 21:52
Dear Simon
If I add NVC to ready so I wlll get remaining CN for africa?
Best regards.
June 22, 2015 at 02:00
No. What are you trying to do?
June 22, 2015 at 12:34
am trying to get exact remaining CN for africa .
June 22, 2015 at 15:51
I will tell you EXACTLY, in about 3 weeks time.
June 22, 2015 at 03:52
Hello Mr Brit!
Who to I address the $1070 check to? Somewhere it’s said DHLS, somewhere it’s USCIS. I’m confused who exactly to address it to.
June 22, 2015 at 05:30
US Department of Homeland Security
June 22, 2015 at 06:46
Hi. Is kcc rectify their technical problem now?
June 22, 2015 at 16:04
No.
June 22, 2015 at 07:20
I mean you decide that qouta for Europe will be about 19500-20000 then why do think augusts bulletin is latest ?
June 22, 2015 at 16:01
I am calculating the number of visas that will be issued for cases already current but not yet interviewed.
June 22, 2015 at 08:43
Hi Brit
When will the 2nl b sent
June 22, 2015 at 15:55
2NLs for August interviews will go out some time this week.