Why I will NOT predict the final cut off for DV2015
I wanted to make clear the reasons why I have decided not to issue a prediction (or guesstimate) for the final Visa bulletin.
Over the last few months I have been estimating and predicting with a high degree of accuracy (although not perfect). I truly hope that has offered some comfort and insight into the process, so that people knew what to expect. It has been my intention to help people by giving them facts instead of inaccurate and baseless guesses. This has never been done before to such a degree of accuracy, because previously we did not have the same level of data available in previous years. I have also explained my method so that anyone could do the same with the CEAC data I publish.
However, this last VB is different in a few ways – the stakes are higher – so that has meant I have been considering whether or not to publish predictions.
Firstly, my success in predicting the VBs will mean that people place credibility on my predictions. I could be wrong, and if so I could mislead someone into believing they were safe when they are not, or vice versa. Honestly – I don’t want that responsibility. What I say, doesn’t count – the official VB is what matters. Since I am trying to help people I don’t want to add to anyone’s stress level. So – it is beter to wait a few extra days and have the real final VB, that me give a prediction and that be wrong…
Secondly this VB is the last VB for the year. This is the last opportunity that KCC will have to hit their targets – and unlike a normal month they know that any case they schedule for this month must be completed within the month. A case that needs AP for any reason cannot be resolved after September 30th. So –the last VB can be a bit more “aggressive” – and therefore might surprise us. I believe KCC might schedule more interviews than normal on the assumption that cases will no show, be refused and be placed on AP.
Lastly. This is not that easy! As things stand I am genuinely unsure of what will happen in each of the 5 regions. I will have a better idea after the 2NLs go out, but the current system errors could have an impact to the CEAC data which is key to my predictions. So – it is unlikely I can get comfortable with a final number very far ahead of the official VB – so with all the above points considered, it is best we “wait and see” what happens with the final official numbers.
I have given some general guidance on the “am I safe” post – but I am going to try to not get any more specific than those comments. I hope everyone will understand my motives and decision. The official VB will be published around 9th to 13th of July. The numbers released in that VB are the final numbers for September interviews – there will not be a change in the VB published in August.
Good luck to everyone still waiting!