{"id":2103,"date":"2019-01-06T16:59:33","date_gmt":"2019-01-06T16:59:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/britsimonsays.com\/?p=2103"},"modified":"2019-01-06T20:27:42","modified_gmt":"2019-01-06T20:27:42","slug":"dv2019-ceac-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/britsimonsays.com\/dv2019-ceac-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"DV2019 CEAC analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
OK. I have only been awake a couple of hours, and I am getting a lot of questions already expecting answers. I would need more time to be precise, but already from the data there are some obvious points. Let me summarize some of the points fairly quickly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
First, I will provide a quick spreadsheet that has some important data points. The per region max case numbers assigned are there, plus the number of actual cases (i.e. taking out the holes). Then I input the selectees announced per region to get a “starting derivative rate”. Remember, each actual case number includes any derivatives on that case, and each person (including derivatives) is counted toward the quota as visas are issued. Because of marriages, births and so on, the final derivative rate is always higher than the starting derivative rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I also took a quick look at how many cases were current in DV2018. Why? Well, this is a quick (but not 100% accurate) way to assess how many cases were needed last year to fill the quota. I say it’s not 100% accurate because it does not take into account country differences. Just as there is a different derivative rate per region, there is also a different derivative rate per country. Additionally people within each country do not have the same education, motivation, financial ability and so on to go through the process. So – if we took 100 winners from France for example and 100 from Uzbekistan, the number of issued visas would not be the same. So – estimating at the regional level does not adequately take into account the mix of winners, and the percentage of winners from each country within a region can vary year to year depending on many factors. So – 15000 EU cases in DV2019 may not yield the same result as 15000 EU cases from DV2018. The same can be said for all regions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another factor that makes predictions hard is the changing political and economic landscape both in the USA and abroad. The DV process can be affected by a great many things. For example, Trump introduced the travel ban. That affected AS region immensely since many AS region DV selectees were suddenly banned. If the travel ban continues, AS region will go current – BUT if the ban were to be lifted (and I have no reason to say it will), then numbers would change. Similarly if a country were to suddenly be involved in political turmoil or war, that might take that country out of the picture and could affect regional outcomes. Finally, new DV processing procedures like the one recently implemented for documents have an affect. It remains to be seen how those procedures will impact the lottery. So – there is a difference between the mathematical calculations of how many people can get current, and the actual reality. If you really want an accurate prediction, wait until the final VB is released in July. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now, every year when I give predictions I warn people to be careful. People ignore my comments and just remember the numbers. They ignore my cautions and later whine that “you said something and it turned out different”. So for the 1000th time of me saying this (and knowing that some people will ignore my warnings and later act like little children) – BE CAREFUL with assumptions and predictions. One additional word of caution. We might have some inaccuracy in the CEAC data due to the way it was collected. I believe it isn’t too significant, but again, just another reason to be careful. <\/p>\n\n\n\n