{"id":789,"date":"2015-05-17T16:53:57","date_gmt":"2015-05-17T16:53:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/britsimonsays.com\/?p=789"},"modified":"2015-05-27T19:48:47","modified_gmt":"2015-05-27T19:48:47","slug":"africa-estimate-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/britsimonsays.com\/africa-estimate-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Africa estimate update"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This post should probably come with a “warning”. In order to understand the points I make in this post you are going to have to exercise your brain. I can’t give nice clean answers to the questions I am being asked and I want to explain why. In my mind I can see reasons why the final number could be anywhere between 55000 and 70000. There are too many factors to be precise – especially as I am trying to predict something that is still over 4.5 months away. No one knows for sure – not even KCC.<\/p>\n
So – if you are looking for a nice clear answer – I don’t have one – and you won’t find it in this post. If you are wondering if your AF42XXX number is safe – you don’t need to worry. Likewise, if you still think the number will get to 81000 “because it did last year”, you have not been paying attention to the differences this year. However, there is a big gap in the range I consider to be possible – so let me try and explain why.<\/p>\n
After the last VB there are a lot of people wondering what will happen and whether their number is safe. KCC issued a number that was 500 case numbers below my predicted range. That is really a very small number (only 192 cases because of the holes), but still it shows that they either have more backlog cases than I expected OR they did not have\u00a0enough\u00a0capacity at the embassy to schedule the 1800 interviews I used in my calculations. To be perfectly honest – I think they were wrong to assign so few cases – if I worked at KCC (as some people suspect I do!) then I would have pushed the number higher – to avoid under allocating or undershooting the monthly issued pace they should be maintaining.<\/p>\n
In reality the AF issued number is slightly behind where it should be and the monthly pace is slightly low). They should be issuing about 10% of the annual quota of visas per month at this point – so that would be 2000. They are just slightly under that number.\u00a0 I suspect there are more no shows than they expect due to the DS260 form. They have stated their is more response than they expected but the ability to fill in a form online with no cost for postage has probably made some people submit the form that would not have submitted in previous years. However, someone in that position is likely to not even show up for their interview given the expenses involved. So – with that in mind I would have encouraged KCC to schedule a few extra interviews.<\/p>\n
OK so back to the estimate. In my earlier estimate post<\/a> I explained the position as I saw things then and explained the pace. I reasoned that the issued number at the end of June should be 13000. However, since KCC seem to be under issuing below the 2000\/month case the numbers are tracking a bit lower than that. They issued 1842 in April and unless they have an amazing 2 weeks they will undershoot in May too. Apply that assumption to June and we could be\u00a0just over\u00a012000 at the end of June instead of the 13000 I predicted.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Now, once we see the 2NLs we will know that the July interview numbers will be. If they are much less than 1800 I would start to suspect that July will undershoot too – to let’s assume we get to 14000 by the end of July (which equates to the 36500 VB number). \u00a0The highest quota we can predict for AF region is 22000. That quota is based on a global quota of over 52000 – which is an optimistic view given the number\u00a0is supposed to end at 50000.\u00a0But some of those 22000 will be taken by AoS cases (which do not show in CEAC) – so in CEAC we will only see a max of 21000, possibly 20500. For a bit of wiggle room – let’s work on\u00a020500. That would mean at the end of July we will have 6500 visas remaining. Remember they don’t HAVE to hit that target – they\u00a0would consider their job was successful if the global number only hit 50000 – so we might see less than 20000 in CEAC.<\/p>\n This post should probably come with a “warning”. In order to understand the points I make in this post you are going to have to exercise your brain. I can’t give nice clean answers to the questions I am… Continue Reading →<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n<\/h6>\n
Africa estimate update<\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"