As I have explained before the CEAC data was made available for DV2021 today, and Xarthisius has extracted the data for us, so that it can be understood better.
Right now of course, all cases show “at NVC” which is the starting point for every case. Later on, once interviews are happening we will see other status types for ready, issued, refused and so on.
In the video I show how you can check your own case in CEAC, how you can use and understand the data from the raw data file and also I show the highest case numbers assigned in each region, the derivative rates and so on.
The data itself can be seen at Xarthisius’ site.
January 2, 2021 at 6:26 am
Dear Brit Simon, I am the winner of dv 2020 CEAC I check my data and it says that my visa is ready and they have not issued it since September, although they have my passport from November 2020
January 2, 2021 at 4:30 pm
You seem to be confused. What year is your case?
January 2, 2021 at 6:42 am
Hello Mr. Brit,
can you check please if the data of dv 2021 still exist, because I can’t reach it, and it opens the data of 2020 instead.
and please could you tell me please about my number according to this math it is AF306xx (Egypt)
January 2, 2021 at 4:33 pm
The data is there.
January 2, 2021 at 9:51 pm
Britsimon thank you for what you have doing. I was a 2019 DV winner, now am live in Oregon.
January 2, 2021 at 9:58 pm
Awesome – I hope you are thriving there!!
January 4, 2021 at 2:46 pm
Dear Brit, thank you for everything you do for us.. God bless you more.
I am a DV2021 winner and my case number is 3k.. do you advice me to join curtis DV2021 lawsuit ?
And also in case Biden does not cancel the last ban, by march 31, do you think i have chance to get my interview in time ? before september 31 !
January 4, 2021 at 7:37 pm
You have plenty of time. No need to join any additional lawsuit unless you are just keen to spend some money.
January 4, 2021 at 9:52 pm
Thanks a lot..
i just needed a confirmation like yours..
January 2, 2021 at 7:35 am
Brit Simon, we are so lucky to have you.You give us very educative and informative information.You are just the best.HAPPY NEW YEAR 2021👍💝
January 2, 2021 at 7:56 am
Hello Brit namaste,
Through the link you provided in youtube I tried to open raw CEAC data of 2021 but it didn’t open. I dont know why.
1: So in case of Nepal as you said in YouTube that there is high derivative rate in Nepal and the case of Nepal ends at around case number 10000. So my case number lies around AS8000. Does this means that I have a very little chance of getting my 2nd letter because of being at high case number and also due to travel ban and other stuffs?? I am just so worried..
January 2, 2021 at 4:36 pm
As I said in the video, no predictions are possible because we don’t know when the interviews will start. But use some simple logic – your case number is probably in the highest 20% of Nepal numbers.
January 3, 2021 at 11:14 am
What does that mean Brit. Does that mean that I still have a good chance??My case number is at around 8400
January 2, 2021 at 9:24 am
DV2021 data can not be seen on the site only the DV2020.
January 2, 2021 at 1:41 pm
I have the same problem. Strangely it works correctly on my mobile! try it
January 2, 2021 at 4:39 pm
I see the 2021 data
January 2, 2021 at 10:11 am
the data is not corrent, there is no difference from cn number and actual cases.
January 2, 2021 at 4:40 pm
The data is correct – you have to filter out the case numbers with no status.
January 2, 2021 at 12:59 pm
Dear Brit, the CEAC data displayed on the website are those of DV2020. Something went wrong there?
January 2, 2021 at 4:42 pm
The data is correct.
January 2, 2021 at 4:56 pm
I’ve seen this report from multiple people. Looks like cache is in play here. You can try to clear all data associated with my site from your browser and try again. I also just pushed a change that should invalidate cache too.
January 2, 2021 at 5:24 pm
Thank you su much for the data, but i think there is a problem with the format, there is hard to put multiple filters on google sheets and also in excel…is there a way to upload the exactly file used by Brit in the video? thanks
January 2, 2021 at 5:59 pm
It is the exact file. I filtered out cases with NONE as the status (because they are holes).
January 2, 2021 at 5:26 pm
Thanks Xarthisius, I agree on the cache issue and it seems to be “real” as in there were multiple reports. Appreciate your efforts in invalidating the cache.
January 2, 2021 at 1:13 pm
Happy New Year Brit,
Just some clarification on the CEAC data extracted by xarthisius. Does it mean the case numbers with “AT NVC” are the actual cases and the ones with “NONE” are holes? My case number is 2021AF269** and want to know the cases in front of me.
January 2, 2021 at 4:43 pm
Yes, filter out the cases with no status.
January 2, 2021 at 1:20 pm
Is it possible that there is currently an issue with Xarthisius website? The data shown for DV2021 is the same as the data for DV2020. It’s not at all like what you showed on the video.
Also first time commenting, I want to thank you for all the work that you do, it’s so hard to find information that are not scams on the DV subject!
January 2, 2021 at 4:45 pm
I think there may be an issue for some people, but refresh the page and you should be fine. I see the data correct.
January 2, 2021 at 2:29 pm
Hi Brit,
2021EU38,XXX here. According to the CEAC extract, there are about 20.7k cases ahead of me.
1) According to your opinion, is there any potential benefit for me of becoming a named plaintiff in Curtis’ No Ban case?
2) I checked Curtis’ website, but honestly, I don’t really understand yet what his case will be and how it is different to Kuck’s, for which, I believe, the hearing will be on Jan 22.
3) I am considering joining, based on the following hypothetical scenario… Since they are behind and some embassies may open / reinstate processing sooner than others, they just make everyone current. Realistic scenario? Then, I could have an edge as a plaintiff with a high case number or not?
4) Out of curiosity, if it was a normal year (excluding Covid, bans etc.), but the numbers were the same, i.e. number of cases / selectees, holes etc. would my number likely to be processed?
Thank you and have a good start into the new year!
January 2, 2021 at 4:50 pm
I realize you want predictions, but I am not going to predict anything right now.
4. In a normal year, mathematically you would have little or no chance.
January 2, 2021 at 5:55 pm
Hello Brit !
Thank you for your effort to keep us updated !
Case no. 68** from Nepal. I just tried to figure out the number of cases before me from the data and the result shows 7841(i.e, 4084×1.92) Does that mean there are 4084 cases and 7841 people(including derivatives) before me! Am I right ?
January 2, 2021 at 5:57 pm
Yes, that sounds about right.
January 2, 2021 at 6:18 pm
Good morning Sir ,thank you for your last video ,
2021AS110XX
as you said i filtered to know how many cases there are before me so the result is as following :
Before me Approximately 6320 cases ,that is mean (1,92*6320) cases = 12134 selectees
so before me , people need 12134 visas ,
For Asisa only 8623 visa(quota) so 8623/1,92= 4491 cases .
so mathematically on Asia only the number of cases who will get visas will be (4491 cases)=8623 vis
Going back to the table on CEAC 2021 by counting from 1 to 4491 cases , the cutoff for Asia will stop at number AS 7495.
1- is this logic right?
2- could you give us your opinion about this low case number cutoff ?
Thank you Sir for your help ,
January 2, 2021 at 6:29 pm
No that logic is not right. The math is but the logic isn’t.
1. Not everyone selected proceeds with their case. We lose around 40% of cases that way.
2. Not everyone who proceeds gets approved. Some go on AP (perhaps to be approved later) and some get refused for good.
3. Depending on when we see interviews starting there may not be enough time to process or interview all cases.
4. Some embassies will have actual COVID problems, others may not – so there will possible be variatioons on which embassies accept interviews.
So – don’t try and be too precise with math – there are more factors in play than simple math.
January 2, 2021 at 6:56 pm
Hello Simon.
1. Case number ~EU19500, am i right that according math there are ~11500 cases before and ~22 080 derivatives?
2. Am i right, that even if i will be plaintiff, the interview will not be scheduled for our family before our case number will become current in visa bulletin?
January 2, 2021 at 6:58 pm
1. Same answer I gave here – http://britsimonsays.com/dv2021-ceac-data-published/comment-page-1/#comment-257004
2. Yes
January 2, 2021 at 7:44 pm
Hi Simon, First, thanks for your great job!
You did a poll before to get max CN in the begging.
If you got this data from polls, can u share max CN numbers in EU for ‘every country’,
Like
UK’s max CN is 29000
Russia’s max CN is 38000
Turkey’s max CN is 37000
January 2, 2021 at 9:05 pm
I’m not sure I would trust the data without sufficient responses, and the EU data shows 2 or 3 limited countries.
January 2, 2021 at 7:46 pm
Dear Sir,
My case number is 2021AF74XXX. I watched your video on CEAC data 2021.
1. How did you get Quota% and number?
2. What can you say about my case number as I am based in South Africa.
Thank you sir.
Belated New Year Wishes.
January 2, 2021 at 9:03 pm
1. There is a formula. It’s described in the FAQ.
2. It’s a high case number wherever you are based.
January 2, 2021 at 8:31 pm
Hi Brit!
Happy new year
How can I know my number position in my country and also the case numbers that are ahead of me
January 2, 2021 at 8:57 pm
Watch the video rather than lazily asking a question that is directly answered in the video.
January 2, 2021 at 8:41 pm
Hello Brit!
Do you think people who adjust their status have the opportunity to join with the law suits that would be filed by Curtis Morrison? Do you think that it’s worth to go with such a lawsuit? Thanks.
January 2, 2021 at 8:56 pm
That is unnecessary – AOS moves fine, and is not subject to the ban.
January 2, 2021 at 10:51 pm
Dear Brit, my actual case is 7080 among Asia cases of 13,248 . My case no is around 13xxx . With derivatives rate 7080*2 = it is some what above the visa quota available fr Asia … I already submitted by further documents as well .. but it’s time to make up my mind.. thanks Brit
January 2, 2021 at 10:58 pm
my case number is 2021AF26XXX so the number in front of me is 26000
so 26000*1.64= 42640 this is logical !?
January 2, 2021 at 11:01 pm
No. Watch the video.
January 2, 2021 at 11:09 pm
I watched the video but don’t know where the 14,000 came from
January 3, 2021 at 7:13 pm
There’s a new form on my page that shows how many cases/people are in front of/behind you. Look for “How many cases there are before and after me?”
January 3, 2021 at 9:36 pm
Love that Xarthisius!
January 5, 2021 at 10:01 am
What the case is a hole mean?
January 5, 2021 at 2:30 pm
That means the number you entered corresponds to a case that doesn’t exists in CEAC system. If you get that response from the form for a given number and you’re certain that it’s not true (e.g. because it’s your number or you verified that CEAC returns data for it) please send me the details using an email address that’s provided on my site at the bottom of the left panel.
January 2, 2021 at 11:08 pm
Hi Brit, my case no being 13xxx from Asia , my actual case is 7080 among 13,248 cases.. what do u think ???
January 3, 2021 at 2:39 am
Hello Mr. BritSimon, if I’m not mistaken, the CEAC data is mainly for immigrant visas processed by embassies and consulates. If I’m correct, I’m curious how those AOS and FTJ cases would be presented here. Thank you.
January 3, 2021 at 4:50 am
The numbers are there, they just stay at nvc.
January 3, 2021 at 7:19 am
Hi Brit, wish you Happy new year.
I am a dv2021 winner and According to the data, most of dv winners in my country ( Djibouti, Africa) had their visas refused at the interview. What could be the main reasons of those refusals?
January 3, 2021 at 3:52 pm
I don’t know.
January 3, 2021 at 1:56 pm
Brit, hope u doing gud . I can remember recently in a live Q n A u said AS region up to AS 15k is safe.. so as CEAC data is released now n actual cases r around 13,248.. So how many actual cases will process ? Still u say up to 15k is safe ? Pls Brit tell me a word to make up my mind.. dnt ignore
January 3, 2021 at 4:09 pm
You are picking pieces from what I said to make yourself hear what you want to hear.
I have said on many occasions that this year is unpredictable and that what would normally be considered safe (mathematically) may not be safe at all.
January 3, 2021 at 6:50 pm
Hi brit,
I accessed my DS260 application, just to view my case and signed out without changing anything. Is it automatically unlocked, and affect my case with delays? I’m confused
January 3, 2021 at 9:57 pm
No that does not unlock it. If it says “completed” it is locked.
January 3, 2021 at 8:39 pm
Happy new year Simon .Thank you the data is very helpful we really appreciate all you do.
January 3, 2021 at 9:57 pm
My case is 2021EU32** when they start sqedule interviews i will be in first issues?
January 4, 2021 at 2:53 pm
Hi Mr. Simon, I input my case number to see the numbers before and after me, but got response that my case number is a hole. what does that mean please?
January 4, 2021 at 4:53 pm
It probably means you are doing something wrong.
January 4, 2021 at 10:04 pm
Yh. I initially included the zeros. Thank you
January 4, 2021 at 3:59 pm
Hello. Thank for your videos. Do you think EU 7*** is a high number? Thx
January 4, 2021 at 7:38 pm
Sorry – but this is a lazy question.
January 4, 2021 at 5:53 pm
Hello Sir
Am case number AF 42***
I checked the CEAC data and it says there are 19933 cases before me and that yields approximately 32650 people before me,
Knowing that only about 20,000 people from Africa receives visas,
does this mean I have a high case number?
January 4, 2021 at 8:27 pm
Your case is medium high. Remember, not everyone proceeds with their case, and not everyone gets approved.
January 4, 2021 at 10:02 pm
How come 42k has less CNs (19933) than mine 41k which has (20477).
1. Mr. Simon, is it possible please?
2. If so, what accounts for it?
January 4, 2021 at 10:23 pm
1. No
2. Some mistake/misunderstanding
January 4, 2021 at 10:52 pm
One side effect of providing a number of cases before you is that it makes CN you entered easily identifiable, which most people doesn’t seem to realize…
So looking directly at the numbers: you get 19933 (and ~32650 people) for 2021AF40286, whereas you get 20477 cases (and ~33541 people) for 2021AF41845. As you can see you made two mistakes:
1. 2021AF40286 is not AF 42xxx it’s AF 402xx
2. 2021AF40286 like you claimed.
January 4, 2021 at 10:54 pm
(2.) Above meant to read “2021AF40286 is less than 2021AF41845, and not grater then like you claimed” but I guess special chars are not allowed in the comments
January 5, 2021 at 12:53 am
Alright smart guy, what can you do with my case number to ruined my dv process
January 5, 2021 at 1:10 am
Ummm yeah, he is a smart guy. Without him you wouldn’t have the CEAC data at all.
January 4, 2021 at 11:26 pm
Thanks for the explanation Xarthisius.
In case people freak out too much – I prefer that people don’t give their precise number. BUT having a precise number is only a problem when 2 or 3 other pieces of information are also revealed. So – people should also not give their real name in comments, not the email address, not DOB and not confirmation number. Occasionally, rarely, I will ask someone for that information, but only by email.
January 4, 2021 at 9:12 pm
Hello Simon! Looks like on ceac DV2020 chart, there’s 7509 visas marked as ready, is this something that we can say are first to go out of 9095 visas set aside? I guess “ready” means cases are in the embassies?
January 4, 2021 at 9:31 pm
Yes those are cases at the embassy. Some of those will be the first served – yes. BUT some of those cases will be “no shows” where people have changed their minds. Every year we see many of those cases that remain ready at the end of the year.
January 4, 2021 at 9:36 pm
Thanks! We want to get 4 of those 7509, fingers crossed (Muslim ban 3.0 country too)
January 5, 2021 at 2:23 am
For African Region AF. Data extracted from.xarthius case no 55K. Case hole before me 25074 and after 7678. Then no of people before me 41071 and after 12556. Question
1. Does this apply to all region or AF only.
2. If I factor travel banned countries in Africa e.g. Sudan with more than 6k selectee does this mean the no reduces even furher.
January 5, 2021 at 2:43 am
1. AF only
2. Well yes, except that Biden will remove the Muslim ban on the first day in office (he has committed to that).
January 5, 2021 at 6:36 am
@ Westwood. Sudan, Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Democratic Republic of Congo will be limited because they cannot get more than 7% of the total visas, so don’t take into account the 6k. According to the previous statistics except Egypt the others countries never reach 2k.
January 5, 2021 at 7:12 am
That is totally normal Stephane. Response/approval rates mean the only country that gets close to a country cutoff is Egypt (who enjoy a very favorable approval rate).
January 5, 2021 at 4:18 am
I have checked mine but it says at NVC.
January 6, 2021 at 1:06 am
@ Stephanie. The 7% quota does not apply per country but region -AF, AS, EU.
January 6, 2021 at 2:54 am
@westwood. That is incorrect.
January 6, 2021 at 11:35 am
Hello British, my number is EU11600 – in your opinion do you think I will have the opportunity for the interview considering March 31st option for starting
January 6, 2021 at 4:51 pm
I don’t know when interviews will start. So – be patient.
January 6, 2021 at 10:25 pm
Hello , I’m dv2021 winner CN 2021AF17xxx, I have not receive any email from KCC asking for documents is not normal . also is there any chances that i could get an interview considering the ban an covid19 many thanks to you for all the work and the help is much appreciated .
January 7, 2021 at 7:28 pm
I suggest you be patient. They are sending requests.
January 8, 2021 at 6:15 pm
We are the same bro
January 8, 2021 at 9:12 pm
Good did you receive an email requesting documents ?
January 7, 2021 at 10:26 am
America has demonstrated to the whole world that it has a complete democracy. What happen in the house of the congress amuse me so much after confirming Biden’s victory.
Thumps up America!
January 7, 2021 at 3:04 pm
Happy new year 2021 Mr. Britsimon,
I have check for my CN, but is AF371** (37k) a high case number?
January 7, 2021 at 7:57 pm
Not very high, no.
January 8, 2021 at 6:00 pm
Hi Brit, I am a winner of the DV 2021 program. I submitted the required documents for further processing but I keep getting a response saying that the system has not detect my documents attached to the email. How can this be solved?
January 8, 2021 at 11:04 pm
You need to check all the instructions. Send the documents to someone else. Check the file names, check the file size and so on.
January 9, 2021 at 12:06 am
The file names are all done accordingly, Mr. Brit Simon. The sizes of all the documents are below 30 MB as they requested. The thing is once I send the documents, and they replied to me saying “KCC has received your email and processing your documents…..” when I also reply by saying ” Thanks for the response”, that’s when I receive another email saying my documents weren’t detected. But if I don’t reply, I can not see that message ( your docent was not detected). I don’t why. Is it because of my reply or what? I’m worried and confused.
January 9, 2021 at 3:34 pm
It sounds like you have not done as I suggested. Send the documents to someone else. You need to see the size of the email, not just the documents.
January 12, 2021 at 6:14 am
I believe you shouldn’t reply the e-mail that says “… processing your documents…”.
Probably because the program is expecting attached files and when you reply the e-mail will not have the attached files.
January 9, 2021 at 12:52 am
I mean I was told that documents should not exceed 30 MB. And the documents I sent was just around 3.2 MB will labeled according accordingly. But I don’t know why. You talked about “send the documents to someone else” I don’t understand. Send them to someone else to do what or for what Mr. Simon?
January 9, 2021 at 3:35 pm
You need to see if the documents are being attached, or links to the documents being held in the cloud.
January 10, 2021 at 3:18 pm
Hi Simon,
First of all, thank you so much for sharing with us and your kind help.
I’m DV2021 winner and my case number is AS64xx, is my case number high? I’m worry about it since the ban. Thank you!
January 10, 2021 at 5:21 pm
No
January 11, 2021 at 1:17 am
Thank you very much! Feel so much better now.
January 17, 2021 at 10:32 pm
Hello Brit ,
I saw the data published by the CEAC on January 2, for Africa the holes start at 40 or 50% between 0 and 25k approximately, and 50% to 70 for numbers starting around 45K for the years when the cut off was low (2015, 2018) I noticed that the holes were 20% at the beginning and 50% by the end …. so if we assume that this was a normal year is it logical to predict a cut of of around 65K 70 K? (for africa)
January 18, 2021 at 4:53 am
I’m not bothering with any calculations.