People are often confused about how the case numbers are assigned and where they are in “the list” to get one of the elusive 50,000 Green Cards. To answer that properly it is worth explaining the lottery process itself.
There is an entry period of around one month, typically in October of each year. During that time people from all over the world will enter as there is no cost to entering the lottery and it is a pretty simple process.
Between the end of the entry period and the announcement in the following May, the “winners” and (selectees) are chosen. The process is like this.
Entries are sorted into their respective regions, Africa, Europe, Asia, South America and Oceania. The rules say that there should be an equal chance of winning within each region. There is a target of the number of selectees that will be chosen. The actual chance at this point is affected therefore by the number of entries a given region receives, compare to the number of selectees that will be picked for the first stage.
So – let’s look at some examples.
Let’s say that Africa receives 5 million entries (each entry can be for a single person or can include derivatives). It might be decided to pick 100,000 entries for the initial stage. That would mean a 2% chance of getting to that stage (100,000/5,000,000*100). Another region might have a higher percentage chance of winning per entry but get far fewer entries.
This is probably best explained by looking at some real data from 2013. The reason to use 2013 data is because that is the latest year that we currently have complete data – both entries and selectees.
So – first of all take a look at how many entries each country in the OC region had. I used official entry data and official selectee data.
Because the published selectee data includes derivatives (family members) I use a formula to calculate the family selectees and then use that to calculate how many cases were picked from the entries (because the lottery is per entry, not per derivative).
OK so now we can see that in 2013 the region as a whole enjoyed a 5.9% chance of winning a place as a selectee. I have shown the resulting chances per country but as I stated before the actual chance of winning is the same across the whole region (mandated by law). There are variations of course such as Nauru which appears to have had a winning chance of greater than 10%. However, what really happened is just coincidental – they seem to have got 9 cases selected, rather than the 5 cases they would have expected. That is due to the nature of a random draw – nothing to get worked up about!
OK, how about a larger region for the same year – let’s take AF region.
Now there is something to get excited about! I have highlighted four countries than have unusually low winning chances and enormous number of entries. If the draw is “fair” then Nigeria (which has 1.35 million entries!) should have around 13 times the number of winners than Algeria (with about 100k entries). They don’t – so what is going on?
Well the answer is that during the draw process, an artificial limit is imposed (in some way) on the four countries who would otherwise have received a huge portion of the overall selectee count. The last line shows that the four limited countries had 70% of the entries for the region but only received 40% of the selectees. So – they are being limited, for sure. In DV2013 and DV2014 this limit was around 6000 selectees per country (including family). In DV2015 they have lowered the limit to 5000.
So what impact does that limiting have on the process?
Well for applicants from the limited countries it means they have a lot less chance of being selected than people in other countries within the region. I cannot find where that result is supported by law, but I suppose the justification would be the 7% country limit. However, only one country (Nepal) has a realistic chance (high probability in actual fact) of hitting the 7% limit with 5000 selectees in DV2015. The four limited African countries were unable to hit the 7% limit even with >6000 selectees in DV2013 and DV2014 due to low response and success rates.
In addition the strategy of limiting countries creates holes and a concentration of selectees from the limited countries to the lower case numbers. To understand why, it is helpful to understand the draw process.
How is the draw performed.
The draw itself is a multi step process – the steps being:-
- Separate the entries into their regions
- A computer randomly orders every case for each region, assigning a region specific rank number (case number). This would start at 1 for the highest ranked entry and continue right down to the very last entry (which is why we have leading zeros on our case numbers). So a number could be be like 2015AF00021123. The numbers are consecutive at this point, with no gaps between case numbers. The numbering is region specific so just as my example if for an AF number, that same number could exist in different regions (for example 2015EU00021123, and 2015AS00021123). Remember, each case represents a single selectee and their derivatives.
- Next there are steps applied to identify and remove fraudulent entries. This is done by photo biometric matching processes, database searches on the names and other information within the entries. Those entries removed create gaps or “holes” in the numbers. These holes are randomly distributed throughout the number range. We often discuss the “density” of the cases versus holes. If a lot of fraud within a region, then the density of the cases will be low.
- The next step is to decide the selectees that will be notified. A computer process takes the entries in rank number order, keeping a count for each country as well as an overall count. There seems to be a count on the individual selectees and also one on the derivatives for each selected case. At some point a country will reach a point where it will be limited. From that point onward the process will knock out further entries for that country. Again this produces holes after the point that a country maxes out, and of course, this means the density of real cases will be lower in higher case number ranges (at least in AS, EU and AF regions which each have limited countries).
- Once enough selectees are chosen for the region, the selection process stops and they are ready to notify the selectees.
The above steps have been deduced from reading publicly available information and also apply a bit of common sense.
I hope than de-mystifies the process somewhat.
Update July 12, 2019 – I am including a link for this video that explains that process in a simplified way.
The data shown above is available for download here.
January 19, 2018 at 10:56 am
Hello Simon
My numer is 2018EU17XXX
I want to know if you have any prediction if my interview will be in January or February
January 19, 2018 at 2:59 pm
I am 100% certain you won’t be interviewed in January, February or March even.
October 29, 2018 at 9:02 am
Hi Brit
My case number is 2019AF00010270.i want to know when I will be schedule for interview
October 29, 2018 at 2:01 pm
http://britsimonsays.com/dv2019-basic-questions/
February 4, 2018 at 5:46 am
Hello Simon
My case number is 2018EU24XXX.
Can you tell me about our chance ? We are 5 people from Albania
February 4, 2018 at 2:39 pm
You are OBVIOUSLY safe.
February 6, 2018 at 3:24 pm
Thanks Simon for answering!
So we might get interviewed late in the summer ? I guess the process is going really slowly this year
February 6, 2018 at 5:23 pm
Patience.
February 7, 2018 at 7:39 pm
I have one last question .
May the Trump’s proposal for cutting off the American lottery system affect the winners’ of 2017 process?
February 7, 2018 at 7:58 pm
No
March 13, 2018 at 3:05 pm
Dear Brit Simon,
It seems that the process is going pretty slow. Our case number is 2018EU248XX and according to visa bulletin numbers for May it seems that our number is in risk. Will there be interviews for September and will we have chances for interview?
Thank you in advance.
March 13, 2018 at 3:11 pm
No risk. Patience.
March 13, 2018 at 3:58 pm
Thank you very much.
February 5, 2018 at 12:45 pm
Hi Brit,
My case number is 23XX for South America. Can you please tell me my chance?
If there is a chance, when should I get the interview?
Thank You
February 5, 2018 at 3:28 pm
I think your number is too high to get an interview – but wait and see.
February 7, 2018 at 5:46 pm
Why do you think that way? They are many times South America get Current status. Don’t you think it will happen again?
Thank You.
February 7, 2018 at 5:52 pm
Because SA region had 4995 people selected this year. That is more than double the selectees from DV2017, and nearly 2000 more than DV2016. So – there are too many selectees. More info here.
http://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
February 7, 2018 at 6:10 pm
Thanks for the answer. So, You mean 15XX is very safe for SA but also possible max number is 30XX. Am I correct?
February 7, 2018 at 6:38 pm
15XX is safe – but numbers above that have risk. There are 1908 cases below SA2300, but only 145 cases above SA2300. Each case includes the winner plus derivatives, so ALL the 4995 people are in just 2056 cases. That means you have around 4600 people in front of you, and a quota of around 1500/1600. So your number is very unlikely to become current.
February 9, 2018 at 12:15 am
my Number is 49XX for zimbabwe. how safe
February 9, 2018 at 1:22 am
Less than 5000? Safe. Nearly 50,000? Risky.
February 9, 2018 at 7:11 am
Hi Brit,
My case number is 46XX for Kenya. Can you please tell me my chance?
Thank You
February 9, 2018 at 2:49 pm
That number is already current.
February 9, 2018 at 3:39 pm
Sorry it’s AF46XXX
February 9, 2018 at 5:12 pm
So wait and see.
February 12, 2018 at 8:40 pm
Hello Brit , my number is 29800 , is this safe ? What about interview ?
Thank if u answer !!
February 12, 2018 at 10:16 pm
Wait and see, and if you want to ask anything, list the year and region along with the number..
February 14, 2018 at 3:03 am
Hi Brit,
My case number is 10XX for South America.
Can you tell me about our chance ? We are 4 people from Venezuela
February 14, 2018 at 3:42 am
You are certain to get an interview.
February 16, 2018 at 3:59 pm
Hi Brit, my case number is 2018AF00034,am I safe, and when will probably be my interview?
February 16, 2018 at 4:01 pm
From Kenya
February 16, 2018 at 5:54 pm
I assume you mean 2018AF00034XXX.
Wait and see.
March 9, 2018 at 6:43 pm
Hi Brit,
My DV2018 number is 30XXX from Africa
So what is the chance to get interview and when should I get my medical exam done? Thank you
March 9, 2018 at 6:57 pm
You will get current. Once you receive your 2NL you book the medical.
March 20, 2018 at 3:27 pm
Dear Simon,
I am quite curious about the commonalities between people who had won the lottery but couldn’t complete the process -for some reason and re-apply and win again the following year.
They do exist, right?
Best wishes!
March 20, 2018 at 4:50 pm
Yes that can happen. It’s a lottery – chance.
March 21, 2018 at 8:07 pm
Dear
Am Akwa from Cameroon my case number is 2018AF335xx do I have a chance and when can’t i have an interview
March 21, 2018 at 9:31 pm
Yes, you just have to be patient.
March 23, 2018 at 10:33 pm
So when am I expecting to get an interview
March 23, 2018 at 11:02 pm
Wait and see.
March 23, 2018 at 11:05 pm
Be clear to me is my case number risky
March 23, 2018 at 11:12 pm
No.
Now – BE PATIENT!
March 23, 2018 at 11:14 pm
Thanks alot I will be patient
March 27, 2018 at 5:00 am
Hello Britmon Simon. My Case Number 2018EU00029xxx, what are the chances for an interview?
March 27, 2018 at 5:14 am
Pretty good.
March 27, 2018 at 5:34 am
In what month will the interview take place? What do you think?
March 27, 2018 at 5:54 am
Wait and see.
March 29, 2018 at 5:37 pm
hello bro,
are u sure about his ?
The numbering is region specific so just as my example if for an AF number, that same number could exist in different regions (for exemple : AF12000, AS12000, EU12000)
can u give me the source of the information plz.
thank u
March 29, 2018 at 6:49 pm
Of course I am sure about this!!
Yes the same number can exist in each region – for example, for DV2018, AF3, EU3, AS3, OC3 all exist. SA3 does not exist – it is a hole. This can all be checked on CEAC.
The source? Me!
April 11, 2018 at 11:35 am
I, am robert From Kenya Case Number 2018AF48XXX.. chances please thank you
April 11, 2018 at 2:03 pm
Wait and see.
April 11, 2018 at 1:00 pm
my case number is 2018AS10xxx what about the risky ….please!!??
April 11, 2018 at 1:59 pm
I cannot predict AS region at all.
May 10, 2018 at 3:31 pm
Hi brit u r doing good its been three month in USA but I wiges brother has below 7000 case nuber in AS reson do he hase any chance to get second latter next month?
May 10, 2018 at 3:50 pm
The VB was just released.
May 10, 2018 at 4:17 pm
Does VB go through next month or it is going to stop?
May 10, 2018 at 4:56 pm
There are two VBs left for DV2018
May 10, 2018 at 4:56 pm
Hi Brit ,
My case number is EU24XXX . Will I get Interviewed ?? What do you think? I’m getting really anxious after the VB for July
Thanks !!
May 10, 2018 at 5:13 pm
Really – I don’t know. There are 2 VBs left. Wait and see.
May 11, 2018 at 6:29 am
Dear Mr. Brit.
As you exactly predicted, the VB for July came out with 21900 number for EU, which means that the embassies will consider only approximately 658 cases. This is the lowest number that they ever had considered, and if I count for further 2 VBs left, even the numbers like ours EU 248XX wouldn’t get their chances for the interview. What do you think in this matter? Are there any possibilities that the actual considered cases will be increased at least up to 700-750?
Sorry for bothering, but it makes nervous thinking that you are so close, but could fail and loose your chance.
Thank you in advance.
May 11, 2018 at 2:31 pm
I don’t know. You just have to wait and see.
May 24, 2018 at 6:11 pm
Hello,
Do I have chance for interview? Armenia EUxx33210
May 24, 2018 at 6:24 pm
I don’t know – wait and see.
May 30, 2018 at 11:18 pm
Hello Brit, I’m french and my husband australian.
Unfortunatly I’m not selected but him yes.
He has 0C8xx, do you think it is a safe number.
thank you again !
May 31, 2018 at 2:35 am
Yes – and I assume you realize you can get a GC as his derivative.
June 13, 2018 at 11:08 am
Hi mr. Brit
Pls my case number is AF19xxx what chance to get interview. Am from ghana
June 13, 2018 at 2:49 pm
Chance of interview – 100%.
Chance of being approved in Ghana? Low. Higher if you have been totally honest, no fraud documents and meet the requirements.
August 8, 2018 at 9:32 pm
Hello simon
My dv2019 is AF10### you think it’s safe thanks for your help
August 8, 2018 at 10:07 pm
http://britsimonsays.com/dv2019-basic-questions/
June 13, 2018 at 11:18 am
Pls is 2019dvlottery
June 14, 2018 at 11:41 am
my dv number is AF25XXX from Kenya am i safe
June 14, 2018 at 2:25 pm
I have no idea. I don’t even know the year you are in…
June 15, 2018 at 7:16 am
Hi Mr. Brit
my case no is 6734. i am from Nepal, do i have a chance for interview for 2018 dv?
June 15, 2018 at 1:29 pm
You are now current.
June 15, 2018 at 8:03 pm
I have 2018EU329XX…how many chance I have . Thank you
June 15, 2018 at 8:17 pm
Probably none. Sorry.
June 15, 2018 at 9:20 pm
Can I have another chance to write my embassy of my country to take the interview in the advance and which case can be accepted. Can you help me please?
June 15, 2018 at 9:36 pm
They cannot schedule you just because you ask them. If you are not current, you won’t get an interview.
June 15, 2018 at 8:57 pm
Hello Mr. Brit,
My case no. is 2018AF33xxx, it was current since previous month, but till now I didn’t received appointment, my case status is (at NVC). My interview location should be in Doha, Qatar… I sent ds260 form since September 2017… what chance to get an interview??
June 15, 2018 at 9:39 pm
I don’t know.
June 17, 2018 at 5:26 am
Hey Brit im from Nepal. My case number is 6982 …..
With just a few numbers my case was not current this time. Now can I expect my turn to come on very last VB?
I wish I could have get my turn this time but everything is decided by KCC
Please tell me Brit do Nepal have chances to increase its VB like upto 7075 from 6950?
please reply
June 17, 2018 at 6:33 pm
Wait and see.
June 17, 2018 at 6:37 pm
Hello Brit. My case number is EU249** . Do I have any chance for interview?😕
June 17, 2018 at 6:50 pm
DV2018?? Wait and see.
June 17, 2018 at 6:53 pm
Yes 2018
July 28, 2018 at 7:00 am
Hello Simon, i thank you for your website, I got it very essencial. I have been selected and my case number is 2019AF23xxx. still due maiantanaince of ds260 website still july 27,2018 not filled,is it make any problem on my interview process?
Have a great day!
July 28, 2018 at 1:24 pm
No problem you have plenty of time.
July 30, 2018 at 3:18 pm
Hey Brit please do reply. This time I really need your genuine suggestion.
Im the DV winner of 2018 and im from Nepal. My case number was 69xx and with the god’s grace july become my lucky month. My interview is on september.
Actually my problem is My sister my sponser is pregnant and her delievery is on August. She has one son already and her husband. Her husband has a decent salary annually 80,000
Now my sister sends me welcome letter and affidavit form not from her name but from her husband’s name.
So on interview day should I change his name in replace of my sister’s name or shall I search a new sponser. As my sister should remain in home and aloneincome her husband should maintain whole house. This might create problem for him to sponser or not?
Please give your 100% answer
July 30, 2018 at 4:23 pm
You are making a big deal out of nothing. Relax. No problem.
July 30, 2018 at 4:28 pm
Shall I say her to send a welcome letter of her own name?
And affidavit form too?
Because in my first letter there is my sister’s name as my sponser not her husband’s name
July 30, 2018 at 5:07 pm
One welcome letter/affidavit covers the whole family.
July 31, 2018 at 8:46 am
Brit im confused thats why im asking you questions many times. Please make me clear in once then will never ask again.
My sponser name was Ranjita Ranabhat. Now she has got her delivery date on august. If she sends welcome letter from her own name then nothing matters I know this. But as nowadays interview is being hard and they are asking affidavit so im confused from whose name those affidavit should be sent?
Like if from my sisters’s name then maybe she was in rest since many months and has no income recently. So shall I say her to send affidavit from her husband’s name Bharat Budhathoki?
And then to make sure Ranjita and Bharat are husband and wife I will tell them to send their marriage certificate prrof. Thats only Yes brit??
Please say my question’s answer in a way that I understand then I promise I will never bother you…..
Dv winner 2018 interview is on september and from nepal. Thank you so much in advance
July 31, 2018 at 2:02 pm
AGAIN. The husband can fill out the form for joint income. No marriage cert needed.
August 11, 2018 at 4:10 pm
Hi Brit
After checking the dv lottery using the entrant statue check ,what do they say for o e to knw he or she has won?
August 12, 2018 at 12:01 am
It’s very obvious. If you see “not selected” that means not selected.
September 2, 2018 at 1:06 am
Hi Brit,
Can you please check if I’m current or not my case no. is: 2019AS00006499
Thank you,
isa
September 2, 2018 at 5:07 am
No you are not. Read this.
http://britsimonsays.com/dv2019-basic-questions/
September 6, 2018 at 12:50 pm
Hey Brit I got my visa approved. And when I check my case number in CEAC status, it shows that my case number isis issued and visa has been printed. Now it is sure that I will receive my passport with visa yes?
How long will it take Brit?
Please reply
September 6, 2018 at 4:10 pm
It varies. Patience.
September 6, 2018 at 4:16 pm
Just wanted to know is it sure that I got my visa?
Or is there still any risk?
September 6, 2018 at 4:51 pm
It is sure once it is in your hands.
September 6, 2018 at 5:05 pm
No brit you didnt got what I meant to say. I just asked that I got my visa approved on seseptember 4th and yesterday I got notification from my visa status check that my case number is issued. It means my visa has been printed right?
Sooner or later I will get it yes?
Or is there any chance that issuedissvisa visa will be cancelled?
September 6, 2018 at 5:44 pm
I did understand. So let me say it a third time. My answer is that you can ONLY be sure once the visa is in your hand.
September 28, 2018 at 10:05 am
dear sir my case no. is 2019AS000065XX is there any chance to interview, and how many chances i have from(1 to 10) scale? thanks
September 28, 2018 at 7:08 pm
http://britsimonsays.com/dv2019-basic-questions/
October 8, 2018 at 5:59 pm
Sir does it means some countries have slight chances of scaling through their interviews.
For example you used Ghana as an instance when answering a question.
If yes, what are those countries? And why is it so?
October 8, 2018 at 6:17 pm
I often use Ghana as an example as it has the worst track record of approvals. That is because of high fraud and dishonesty levels in Ghana. Google “Britsimon embassy league table”.
October 16, 2018 at 2:52 pm
Hi sir! my case number is 2019AS128XX. So can you tell me about the chance of my interview? or i will have interview soon?
October 16, 2018 at 5:03 pm
http://britsimonsays.com/dv2019-basic-questions/
October 20, 2018 at 11:48 am
I am nepali national and pipe fitter in uae Dubai .I have no +2 qualification
I want to entry 2020 dv on basis of occupation
So please instruct me what to write in qualification box
October 22, 2018 at 10:47 am
I am from Liberia and my number is 2018AF45xxxx, any chance
October 22, 2018 at 4:28 pm
No. DV2018 is over.
November 4, 2018 at 7:30 am
Hi Brit,
My case number is 244XX for Ethiopia Can you please tell me my chance?
If there is a chance, when should I get the interview?
Thank You
November 4, 2018 at 2:59 pm
http://britsimonsays.com/dv2019-basic-questions/
November 24, 2018 at 10:34 pm
Good day dear Simon
I would like to ask whether you guys got 2NL AF11XXX
I sent the documents 3 days after receive the email form kcc
thanks
November 25, 2018 at 5:10 am
Patience.
November 29, 2018 at 2:50 am
Hello brit,
I am from aisa, nepal
Mine case number is around 5400
Will i get a chance to give interview??
November 29, 2018 at 4:26 am
http://britsimonsays.com/dv2019-basic-questions/
December 14, 2018 at 4:09 am
Hi Brit I am from Europe Georgia and my case number 2019…….2577* what is your snails about this number
December 15, 2018 at 3:55 am
I don’t have any snails.
December 17, 2018 at 1:25 pm
Dear Brit,
Thank you very much for your kind help.
I am from Egypt and my case number is 2019AF182xx My first question relates to predictions regarding safe numbers when it comes to limited countries like Egypt. I understand from other posts you say it is difficult to anticipate the cutoff point to these countries so:
1-Why it is difficult to anticipate cut off points to limited countries like Egypt?
My second question relates to the drawing process. From my understanding countries like Egypt has its wins concentrated in the lower numbers, so the second question is:
2-In countries like Egypt, do selectees from it has a higher chance of getting an interview because they are mainly concentrated in the lower cases numbers?
There are only 50,000 visas available, and they choose 100,000 this takes me to the third question which is related to the second question:
3-Do selectees from countries like Egypt are in the first half of the 100,000 selectees so they have a higher chance of getting an interview?
The last question is related to the new documents’ procedures. When KCC stops assigning new interviews slots because it is still waiting for earlier numbers to send the papers for processing, or because they want to assign interviews slots to those who were delayed and now sent their papers by email as required. It sounds to me that higher cases numbers are being punished for lower cases numbers not sending their paperwork quick enough.
4-What am I missing here regarding the statement above?
I am not trying to bother you in anyway. I did a lot of reading on your site, and more than one time, still the questions above illustrate my inability to understand some of the key concepts you explained more than once. I am trying to get an answer so I can see the subject more clearly.
I am trying to avoid asking the question of,
5-for Egypt, what do you think the cut point may look like?
I’ve gathered data for the past 17 years and the lowest number for Egypt was 22,900 “in 2009” however, this February was the lowers ever “still the progression for Egypt was more than good compared to that of the whole of Africa”. This relates to question number 4 as in my mind I don’t understand how will the delay for those who didn’t send the required papers by email to the KCC will impact the visa numbers progress over the long term.
Thanks again.
December 17, 2018 at 2:58 pm
1. Because we don’t know everything about how the Egyptian cases are distributed.
2. Yes and no. It depends on the country cutoff.
3. Re-read the article above and the FAQ.
4. It’s a 12 month process. No need to stress over these things. Just keep reading and you will understand better.
5. It’s almost pointless looking at previous years. It is too early to know where the cutoff will come. Relax, and be patient.
December 17, 2018 at 3:20 pm
Thank you.
It is very difficult to relax when so much is at stake, still to a great extent that’s what we all have to do, wait and see.
I guess what got me worried is that I thought that the paperwork email would actually get everything running faster and not slower as I anticipated that now they know who’s going to go to the embassy and who is not – and this can make them run through numbers faster skipping all those who are not going to go anyway.
I am optimistic though that relatively Egypt is running faster on this bulletin relatively to the rest of Africa.
I’ll just sit tight and wait for the coming two bulletins 🙂
Thanks again.
December 17, 2018 at 5:06 pm
I know it is difficult to relax, I got my GC through DV lottery.
February 11, 2019 at 6:20 pm
Hello Brit,
My Case number is 2019AF00011XXX and am from Ghana.
I completed my DS260 form and the whole sending of documents on January 29th, 2019.
Please, what are my chances for an interview?
Thank you!
February 11, 2019 at 6:30 pm
You will get an interview in due course. You now need to be patient.
February 19, 2019 at 11:43 am
Hello, britsimon
I joined the lottery on Nov 23,2017
My entrant name is XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX. I’m from Kenya.
My confirmation number .is
201XXXXXXXXXXX See whether I’m in process please.
Thanks for your reguardes.
February 19, 2019 at 2:32 pm
In their wisdom, KCC knew I would be too busy to check all 20 million entries, so they created a page where each person checks for themselves. Use that page.
Also – don’t give publish your personal info on the internet like that. I edited your question to hide your details.