In DV2015 Nigeria has been excluded from the lottery and this is going to change this dramatically for AF and will have impacts for the other regions. Why is it such a big deal that one country got excluded?? Well look at the numbers from 2013 entries:-
In my post about the draw process and explaining holes I shop that Nigeria represented an enormous slice of the entries in DV2013 – a trend that surely continued in DV2014 and DV2015 (although we don’t have the numbers to prove that yet). Almost one third of all the entries across the whole of Africa (and 1/6 of the world) came from just one country – Nigeria. The draw process limits the selectees from any one country so the most profound impact of their exclusion will have been to remove all the wholes that Nigeria would normally generate. That impact would have increased the density to some extent at low number ranges (due to high fraud levels normally found in Nigerian entries) and then a big difference in the high CN ranges which would normally have been valid, but excluded Nigerian entries. So – a 2015AF50XXX number is effectively “higher” than 2014AF50XXX number.
The next impact has global impact. Nigeria would normally have secured around 3k visas issued. Those visas would have be (kind of) “returned” to the global availability pot. This is actually controlled by the quota formula, but what it means is there could be a few more visas available for other regions. Assuming those regions have the same density, response and success rates, that could mean high case numbers in some regions, not dramatic – but somewhat significant. The other AF countries also get a bit of a boost, which will help counteract the density point I made before, but still I think AF will struggle to reach the same cutoff as last year…
March 21, 2015 at 01:59
Why is the exclude of Nigeria have a negative impact for AF selectees i thought it is a good thing???
my cn is AF80xxx btw
March 21, 2015 at 05:13
Because Nigeria is out, your number is much higher in relative terms than last year.
May 7, 2015 at 13:59
Does the CN between 50XXX-60XXX are secure for this year or the cut-off number will reach
May 7, 2015 at 19:19
Safe I believe up to 60000
May 8, 2015 at 23:09
Im Ilyes from Tunisia, first i would like to thank you for this blog.
I m selected for the DV2016, my case number is 2016AF00053XXX.
Is this number is considered as safe?
May 9, 2015 at 00:46
Probably safe – we have to see the number ranges first to be sure – but with only 84000 selectees you are probably fine.
May 12, 2015 at 10:30
hi britsimon, thx for the blog, i have AF29*** is my number considered as safe?thx
May 12, 2015 at 13:00
July 22, 2015 at 14:16
Hi britsimon and many thanks for your effort,i have win DV 2016 and my case number are AF49*** is it safe especially after VB for September and stopped at 50000,Really I’m getting worried
July 22, 2015 at 14:49
For the reason you mentioned I cannot say it is safe. My guess is you will have to wait nervously until the last month of VBs next year (July 2016). It could go either way – so don’t make plans assuming you will get the GC.
November 10, 2015 at 22:17
Taking the Dec released into account, do you still think a 2016AF30*** is safe to become current? Its not looking good. Is there a reason current #’s are going sooo slow? I did not think the exclusion of Nigeria will have such a big impact.
November 11, 2015 at 01:37
FORGET THE PACE!!!
We are only 4 months in to a 12 month process. Stop panicking over nothing. AF30XXX is FINE!