OK – since the Visa Bulletin was released I have had a lot of questions about the pace of the visa bulletin – many of those questions from Nepal which was 2400 for October and 2450 for November – an increase of only 50. So – this post will explain why that happens which will help Nepalese selectees, but also explain to others so they will understand when their regions go so.
So – the objective of KCC is NOT to schedule every case number and make people happy. Their job is to organize the work of all the interviews, spreading that load over the year and trying to get as close as possible to the target quotas for each region. They DON’T CARE whether a person is from one country or another within any given region. They are filling the quotas by region, not by country.
OK – I said they spread the workload over the year. Why is that? Well they don’t want to have the embassies working at a furious rate in the first 3 months and then have no DV work in the final 9 months – that would not be a sensible way to manage the workload. They also like to pace the process to give all selectees a chance to process their forms.
So – in order to give out the visas they know they have to keep within embassy capacity (how many DV cases each embassy can process) and consider the pace they want to achieve. So they roughly divide the number of interviews they will need by about 10. Using 10 rather than 12 months will allow for some adjustment and for September to be a “clearing up” month (for AP cases mainly). By the way – they got this wrong in DV2015 – so this is not a perfect science.
So now they know how many interviews are needed in one region per month. If we take Nepal embassy as an example it will help explain the process – but the process is applied to a region just like this.
Let us imagine they expect to issue 3500 visas in Nepal. That means they need to approve 350 per month (dividing by 10). In reality, early months will see less approved than 350, and later months will see more per month – because AP cases will be delayed approvals from the beginning and will count in later months. So – to approve 350 visas they might interview 380 (this depends on the success rate which in Nepal is very high). 380 people will come from about 230 cases (each case representing about 1.65 people with family members – again, varies by country).
Right – so in October KCC would have looked at their Nepalese cases and said how many cases do we need to make current to yield 230 interviews. They could ONLY pick cases that were fully processed (the DS260 forms were processed) so they had to make numbers up to 2400 current for October. In reality there were other Nepalese cases within that 2400 that had already submitted their forms but the processing was not completed. Nepal probably has around 300 cases per 1000 case numbers – so less than half of the cases had been processed in time for October interviews. Roughly speaking it seems that DS260s had been processed if submitted by late May.
OK – so then time moved on and they were looking at November interviews. Now more DS260 forms have been processed – probably (and this is a guess which we will only be able to confirm when we see 2NLs go out) up to about mid to late June. Many of those cases were under 2400 – so even if they had not increased the Nepal number at all they probably could have got close to their target of 230 interviews. In fact they decided they needed 50 more case numbers which would have been a handful of additional Nepalese cases.
Since Nepalese selectees typically submit their cases early in the process (based on what I saw last year), I suspect that this slow VB progress for Nepal will continue next month also – maybe increasing by another 200/300 at most. Later, as the backlog is less of an impact for Nepal, numbers will begin to increase as the backlog will be less of a factor.
Now for other regions and countries – there is a lesson to be learned from this. Other regions (AF region and EU for instance) have had large starting numbers also. Looking at EU for instance almost one third of all the case numbers for EU are already current in month 2. That can only indicate that many DS260s were submitted “late” (June/July/August) and there will be a slow down later in the process. So – EU may see one more good increase next month and then backlog cases will start to absorb most of the available interview slots. AF region will have the same issue.
In Dv2015 this backlog effect continued right up to the last VB. There will always be late submissions. and it is somewhat predictable by country/region. So – I know that Nepalese will have responded faster than the rest of Asia for instance. Africa is slow to submit and therefore backlog will be a drag on interviews until the end of the year.
The point is, you cannot look at one visa bulletin and assume every month will have the same pace. Once I have the CEAC data I can predict the visa bulletin increases quite reliably, but that won’t be possible for months yet as the DV2016 data is not in the CEAC system yet.
Anyway – I hope this helps explain what is going on….
Don’t forget to check my other articles out to understand how things work. Also, if you want to show your appreciation for what I do on this site, please leave messages for my daughter (include your country as she is tracking where people come from) and consider donating to the treehouse fund here.
September 15, 2015 at 20:35
I go to interview in 14/9. And hi sad your visa approved
But i check my stats and change to AP
is that mean the visa take time more than month
but the last day is 30/9 dv2015 right
September 15, 2015 at 23:58
Quite often, cases which are approved at the interview go into AP for a day or two before moving to issued. Your case may be like that.
September 16, 2015 at 11:42
halllo mr. brit,
thanks for your blog it is quiet informative. my daughter and i were beneficiaries , my date of birth was incorrectly written in birth certificate, but it all went well and our visa was approved at the nairobi embassy i expected to be asked questions but nope, it was all smooth. thanks once again.i will still be reading your blog. be blessed.
September 16, 2015 at 13:38
Great! Best of luck!
September 16, 2015 at 16:21
Hallo since this morning statut check is block why?.af2015
September 16, 2015 at 21:30
It works for me.
September 18, 2015 at 03:42
A big hi to your daughter !
My case number : AS2016000093x (Nepal) => Ds260 submitted on 30th May. Haven’t received 2NL yet. Any idea when I will get 2NL and interview will take place ? Will my interview take place in this year ?
September 18, 2015 at 05:04
2NL in a week or so, interview in November.
September 20, 2015 at 03:46
My case number : AS201600002xx.
DS260 submitted on 21st June. Im curious to knw when will i get my 2nl ?
Blessings for your darling daughter 🙂
September 20, 2015 at 04:07
I would expect you to get your 2nl this coming week, for a November interview.
September 27, 2015 at 15:55
Hello mr Brit.I’d like to tell thank you for your help to all of us.You are very kind man.Your blog is very useful.I already read most of the information posted on it.My concern is about my CN EU21***..I have not seen big number then mine maybe 1 or 2 but there were very close CN to mine.Anyway i decide that i will participate in DV2017. I hope your prediction about EU go current this year will come true.
best regards for all of your efforts.
September 27, 2015 at 16:16
Your number is not the highest, and will be fine…
September 28, 2015 at 19:25
Hi BritSimon, i haven’t seen anybody commented about receiving 2nl, and my friend called KCC ang got the information that all interviews for November have been scheduled, and that he will be scheduled for December. Is there a chance that just the letters haven’t been sent out, and that they will be received in following two days, because usually dates for 2nl is 20th to 25th. I saw that last year nobody received 2nl in September… Thanks a lot for your comment..
September 28, 2015 at 19:28
The 2Nls will go out today or tomorrow….
September 29, 2015 at 02:20
Hy brit sir do u think the last range of cn for nepal in dv2016 is only 7000…. plz help me .what about ur idea?
September 29, 2015 at 13:11
I don’t have numbers to be precise…
September 29, 2015 at 14:52
I submitted ds260 form on 28th May and 2nd time I unlocked and resubmitted form 0n 21st August.My CN is AS18##. Can I get 2nl for NOVEMBER interview? I have not received it yet. I am so worried about my 2nl. Please reply
September 29, 2015 at 16:32
Why are you worried – there is nothing to worry about. You may get a November interview or it may be a month later. Is that a problem?
September 29, 2015 at 16:49
Thanks for your kind response.
October 9, 2015 at 18:05
hi my case is 19 800 im safe ?
October 9, 2015 at 18:15
AF or EU region I assume – yes safe.
October 13, 2015 at 15:22
hello Brit !!!!
my case number is 2016AF0002852*,i submitted my DS260 in August, i am just wondering if there is any chance to get called up for the interview due to the backlog of DV2015?
October 13, 2015 at 15:49
I think people are misunderstanding the impact of the backlog. The backlog will not affect your case – you will get an interview – but in several months time.
October 16, 2015 at 08:27
thx sir for ur help , my greetings to ur daughter from Algeria
October 16, 2015 at 08:28
sir, is this really the fact that what actually happening to Nepal?? if yes, then why it didnt happen to previous FYs?
Nepalese dv2016 selectees beyond 3000 are so worried about it
(warm embrace to ur kid from nepal)
October 16, 2015 at 17:28
Yes this is really what is happening! People just need to relax – we are only 3 months in to a 12 month year!!!!
October 19, 2015 at 04:55
UKRAINE and UZBEKISTAN from europe has highest number of selectee bt why they never suffer cut-off??
October 19, 2015 at 05:04
High disqualification rate due to fraud (mainly agent entries)
October 19, 2015 at 05:36
Ethopia has 4000 winners 2016dv….is that 4000 is counted for (principal applicant + derivatives) OR principal applicant solely?
October 19, 2015 at 10:09
principal applicant + derivatives
October 21, 2015 at 05:02
eagerly waiting for the upcoming visa bulletin, wish nepal will lift by 500+
October 27, 2015 at 12:06
i find in this year, number of selectees form asia is 15002….it means highest case number is 2016AS15002, doesn’t it??
October 27, 2015 at 15:28
No. Forst, the 15002 includes family (who do not have their own case number) and second there are gaps between the numbers. The actual highest number won’t be exactly 15002 therefore.
October 27, 2015 at 15:49
sir, and i have entered my district name instead of city in DS260….other are accurate….will this be an issue at the time of interview?
October 27, 2015 at 17:26
November 11, 2015 at 21:17
My case # is DV2016SA000012XX, i’m a little worried because of the slow advance for South America. Is my case # possible for DV2016? is it safe?
November 12, 2015 at 13:33
This is for Sofia.
November 12, 2015 at 14:22
December 11, 2015 at 14:04
I wish you merry chrismass and happy full of happiness love and joy
dog bless you
January 9, 2016 at 02:23
Dear Brit ,I just saw my case no in feb vb.
Can u plz guess when shall I get second letter?
Your response would be appreciated.
January 9, 2016 at 02:54
In about 2 weeks.
June 16, 2016 at 14:02
I read this paragraph
Will VB will be increasing fast this year compared to last?
My case no is 251*( nepal ) I submitted on 6th may
Will be in October,November interview ?
Is there chance of we submit ds260 fast we will have fast interview?
June 16, 2016 at 22:47
May 11, 2017 at 03:25
My case no is as6500..will i get second letter md call for interview? Thanku
May 11, 2017 at 03:26
What year, what country???
May 11, 2017 at 04:49
From NEPAL and its dv2018 recently published result
May 11, 2017 at 04:53
So you have about 1 year to wait.
May 11, 2017 at 04:59
So will i get 2nd letter?what is the chance for interview call also?
May 11, 2017 at 05:14
Wait and see.
May 11, 2017 at 05:24
I got it….really worried ??
July 17, 2017 at 17:00
Brit Thank you very much for your tough work out in connection with Dv visa for Nepal writing Its great