First – a BIG thanks to Xarthisius who has just published the CEAC data for DV2023. The data is available at his site here.
Getting the data reveals a few things as I had explained in my preview post from yesterday.
First, the High Case numbers for each region. They are:
AF 63502
AS 26126
EU 35525
OC 2843
SA 3158
NA 13
AF is MUCH lower than I had assumed, and AS and SA are also significantly lower than my expectations. That means less holes, and whilst you might have been feeling confident at a number like AF62XXX, you must now be a little more concerned. For example, let’s say your case number is 2023AF62003 – you have only 380 cases higher than your number and 28954 before you. And remember, each case number includes the winner and the derivatives. You can check your position within the region on Xarthisius’ site.
Other findings are these points
In Asia region, it looks like Nepal hit the cutoff at just under 21000, and Iran at about 16K
Africa region has cutoff countries at about 43K, 48k and 58K. One of thoose is Egypt, and others may be Ghana, Algeria and Morocco, but I am not sure yet which is which.
In Europe it looks like we have two countries cutoff at around 18K, which is probably Uzbekistan and possibly Russia.
Neither OC nor SA have cutoffs.
In general cutoffs are not really such a big problem since almost no countries have response and success rates high enough to threaten the country cap (no country can have more than 7% of the global quota). Only Nepal has a realistic chance of hitting the cap, so there might be a little risk for the highest Nepal cases – but even that is not likely.
If you want to know why these cutoffs occur, please watch this video which explains the draw process.
In terms of progress so far this year, it looks like a pretty good start to the year. Some observations:
- 4991 visas already issued (from 2538 cases)
- 9205 cases scheduled so far (17747 people including derivatives). That includes scheduled interviews up to February.
- Response rate and DS260 processing look pretty good. If you look at the early numbers from each region, about half of the cases are already scheduled. That can only happen when people have responded, and their DS260 is processed. So – they are well over halfway through the submitted DS260s across the whole number range.
OK – that’s my initial impression of the data.
You can check your own case at CEAC
And if you wonder what the status codes mean – please read this:
The first status for every case is “AT NVC”. You can ignore the text on the case – the case has not been passed to NVC. What this status means is that the case is in one of the following situations.
- The case is not yet current.
- The case is current, BUT the DS260 has not be submitted at all, or it was submitted but not processed yet – and therefore not scheduled.
- The case is current, the form is processed, but it is waiting to be scheduled (typically because the cases have not yet been sent to the embassies yet).
PLEASE IGNORE the NVC information that appears – it is a standard message and DOES NOT APPLY to DV cases
“In Transit”
This status is shown for a brief period when KCC has scheduled the interview, and transferred the case to the embassy. However, the embassy has not yet updated CEAC to acknowledge they have received the case.
“READY”
This is the next status after in transit. It means the case has arrived at the embassy for interview. Sometimes a case will continue to show ready even after the interview.
“Issued”
Pretty obviously – this is the status we all want to see! The interview took place, was successful and the visa has been approved/issued.
“Refused” (2 versions)
This status can have two meanings. The usage of the status codes was updated about 2 years ago, so I should clarify the more modern use of the codes.
Cases are refused either temporarily or permanently.
Refused 221g – The temporary refusal is actually a status called 221(g) and is a period of time where someone did not have all the documents at the interview OR some additional checks are needed before the case can be adjudicated. 221(g) (commonly called AP) can last a few days or several months. The status updates during that time are almost meaningless (apart from one – see below) . To know if the refusal is the temporary type or the final refusal, you read the text under the REFUSED status on the CEAC status check site. If the text is as shown below (we call it the long text), then your case is in 221(g). Xarthisius actually determines that in his file and assigns those cases a status in his data of Refused221g.
“A U.S. consular officer has adjudicated and refused your visa application. Please follow any instructions provided by the consular officer. If you were informed by the consular officer that your case was refused for administrative processing, your case will remain refused while undergoing such processing. You will receive another adjudication once such processing is complete. Please be advised that the processing time varies and that you will be contacted if additional information is needed. For more information, please visit TRAVEL.STATE.GOV or the website for the Embassy or Consulate at which you made your visa application.”

Refused final – The other type of refusal is the permanent one. This is the status no one wants to see, meaning the interview took place and the selectee was denied. A derivative can be refused, while the principal is approved. However, if the principal is refused – all the derivatives are refused also – even if the embassy fails to update CEAC and leaves the derivatives as “ready”. It is very very rare to overcome permanent refusal. There is no official appeal process, so whilst some cases could later change from refused to issued, it is exceedingly rare (a handful of cases each year).
The permanent refusal has this text under the description on the CEAC status check site – often referred to as “the short text”. “A U.S. consular officer has adjudicated and refused your visa application. Please see the letter you received at the interview.”

“Administrative Processing”
This status used to be used for the 221g cases, however, it is no longer used that way. Now, this is the only useful status update that people may see before their case shows issued. Sometimes a case will go to Ready or Refused221g to “Administrative Processing”. That is actually the visa printing process happening, and the applicant can expect to see “issued” within a few days. This status lasts up to a week in normal times, but could last longer if there are problems with the visa printing process. The status looks like below and still has the “old” description that suggests Refused 221g. That is because the 221G status was generally known as “Administrative Processing” (and is still referred to that way).

Derivative number.
For cases that are scheduled we can see the related derivative numbers. Case 01 is the principal and derivatives are case 02, 03 and so on.
January 1, 2023 at 13:00
Hi, Brit. If a country has a cutoff say at 20k then someone having 35k number surely wont get an interview? 🙁 Thank you!
January 2, 2023 at 10:32
The cutoffs I was talking about (such as Nepal) means there will be no Nepal selectees with case numbers higher than the cutoff.
February 6, 2023 at 20:18
Gd morning Britsimon.
I m from Nepal. And according to your assumption do you mean that Nepal may continue upto 20k -21k? and won’t go beyond from here ? my case is 2023 As15k.
Does nepal always issue 7% cap?
February 7, 2023 at 18:45
There are no selectees past that number.
They don’t always hit the cap, no, but if the embassy performs well they might get close to it.
January 1, 2023 at 13:06
Hi, thanks for providing the information. How do you know that Uzbekistan and Ukraine are going to be cut of in Europe when visa bulletin says Russia and Uzbekistan now?
January 2, 2023 at 10:33
You are misunderstanding the term cutoff. These are DRAW cutoffs. Not the final predictions.
January 1, 2023 at 13:10
Hello Simon,
First of all Happy New Year!
Could you please answer some questions?
1) I checked the CEAC website today and it says that my case is at NVC. I also decided to look at my DS-260 to double check if I entered all the correct infos and once I got to the ” Security and background” section , I noticed that all the first questions of each page (security 1 , security 2 , immigration law violations 1 , immigration law violations 2 , miscellaneous 1 , miscellaneous 2) were underlined in orange. I mean they were in an orange “box”
Do you think it’s a system error?
2) Was I actually flagged by KCC? If yes, will I ever receive a 2NL? I have answered NO to all questions and that’s the truth.
3) Do you think I will be disqualified?
4) Should I contact KCC and enquire about it?
Please let me know if you were ever told of a similar experience. I am really worried now. Thanks
January 2, 2023 at 10:34
1. Overthinking error.
2. See 1.
3. See 1
4. No. Stop overthinking.
January 2, 2023 at 13:09
Thank you so much Simon! You’re right I am totally overthinking everything. I will just be patient as you always suggest. Have a good day!
January 1, 2023 at 15:06
Brett I have a case I want to explain:
I met two weeks ago and the questions were easy and all my documents are intact. The consul kept my passport and told me when we print the visa we will send you a message. Then I left and after two days I received a message on the e-mail saying that my case needs additional questions with the ds5535 form and he asked me to send it as soon as possible then they said That I turned to an administrative procedure and they asked to come to the embassy to take away my passport. Today, when I checked my case, I found a refusal due to the administrative procedure
How do you explain this, is it normal, and what are the expectations?
January 1, 2023 at 16:04
Anytime I check my status on ceac, it says “Invalid Immigrant visa case number”, what could possibly be the reason ?
January 2, 2023 at 10:39
You are probably using the leading zeros. Remove them.
January 2, 2023 at 10:38
Re-read the article above – I just clarified the status codes.
January 1, 2023 at 16:22
Hello dear Simon
Hello Simon
Does ceac data (iran hit cutoff at about 16k) mean that Iranians with case numbers higher than 10000 have little chance to be interviewed?
Do you recommend that I move my embassy from Ankara to another country with case number 9500 from Iran?
January 2, 2023 at 10:39
I think I already answered you, but basically you have a chance, your risk being long 221G
January 1, 2023 at 16:59
Hey Brits if some one submits in end of November is there any chance for a 2nl
January 2, 2023 at 10:40
Yes – just later.
January 2, 2023 at 00:41
My case number is 2023OC2569 ceac data showing 1044 case Infront of me 115 after me what that range means any luck
January 2, 2023 at 10:45
You have some risk.
January 2, 2023 at 03:57
Case number is 2023AF00014089 what is my chances and when am I suppose to go for interview and when to fill forms, please.
January 2, 2023 at 10:51
You must complete the DS260 asap. If you don’t do that, you will waste your chance.
January 2, 2023 at 04:46
Hello dear Simon. First of all, I must thank you for the very useful post you made. I had a question. In the video that you explained about the lottery, you said that after the lottery, a number of selectees are removed for some reason (such as fraud and etc …) .
Does it means that they will be notified in May that they have won and they will send the 260 form as well, but for the reasons you mentioned in the video, they will be removed and will not be invited for an interview in the rest of the process? Or is it that even if he wins, before the announcement of the results, they will be removed and they will not be announced among the winners, and of course they will not send the 260 form?
January 2, 2023 at 10:52
Answered in Telegram, but this is BEFORE people are notified.
January 2, 2023 at 06:25
Hello Brit, please I want to know what it means to see ‘None’ and ‘C’ on the consulate section of the ceac data for 2023? AF 19k
January 2, 2023 at 10:52
Re-read the article above.
January 2, 2023 at 07:25
I am in Ghana and my number is 2023AF48K plus. How does it realate to this statement you made….”Africa region has cutoff countries at about 43K, 48k and 58K. One of thoose is Egypt, and others may be Ghana, Algeria and Morocco, but I am not sure yet which is which”
January 2, 2023 at 10:55
It might mean Ghana may be cutoff at 58K – but to be clear – we are talking about cases assigned in the draw, not final number predictions.
January 2, 2023 at 08:15
Hello brit and happy new year..I have a question for you please. Our CN is 2023AF59*** from Morocco. Do you think we stand a chance to become current according to the Data released? Thank you in advance
January 2, 2023 at 10:56
You are in a range of numbers with some risk.
January 2, 2023 at 10:17
Hi brit, can you explain how did you figure out the cutoff on nepal at under 21k. i went through the spreadsheet but was not being able to find out
January 2, 2023 at 10:26
Two reasons – I show it graphically from the data, and then I know that some Nepalese folks have mentioned they have cases at 20K range.
January 2, 2023 at 13:48
Hi Brit.
First of all, Happy new year to you and your family, and God bless you for helping us…
My cn is 21K for EU region. Can you please explain me something…Let`s say hypothetically that my CN will be current in april. Is that mean that my interview will be in april, or that I can expect my 2NL in april, and than I can expect that my interview will be scheduled for june let`s say?
January 2, 2023 at 15:33
The VB announces numbers in advance. So – the VB that will be published in February will announce the numbers that are current in April. So – if your case is already processed and you become current in that VB, then you would expect your 2NL in the last half of February, but it could be a month later.
January 5, 2023 at 03:50
Thank you
February 24, 2023 at 20:48
Hi Mr.Simon. Thank you very much for your help. My case is 2023EU20***, embassy in Armenia. So far, the highest number from Armenia scheduled for an interview is 2023EU14972. When do I need to wait for the invitation, and is there a risk of not being able to make it in time with my case.
Thanks in advance
February 26, 2023 at 10:12
It depends when you completed processing and was added to the AV queue.
January 2, 2023 at 14:53
Please i do not anderstand Please how to apply?
January 2, 2023 at 15:34
Be more specific.
January 2, 2023 at 15:17
Hi Brit,my case number is 2023AF432 and the status is “At NVC”. How do i know the actual status as to whether it current or not. Also, what does it really mean for a status to be currently or not. Thank you.
January 2, 2023 at 15:36
Current is when your number is lower than the number announced in the visa bulletin. Please read the basic questions…
January 2, 2023 at 16:12
Hi Brit,
My CN is 2023AS12XXX from Iran. Is it too high?
Thanks
January 5, 2023 at 10:15
I don’t know.
January 2, 2023 at 16:57
hello britt!!
Can you please tell me that is there any way to find out the density of cases country wise that how many cases are before me in my country and how many after me?
January 5, 2023 at 10:16
Not precisely, although we can estimate. However, that is pointless as the country does not affect the progress.
January 2, 2023 at 18:56
Hi, Brit. I’m 30k from Ukraine. Does it mean that everyone after 18k won’t get a chance for the interview? Because too many people from the my country have been interviewed already? Thank you for your help.
January 5, 2023 at 10:16
No it does not mean that!
January 3, 2023 at 04:17
Hello bri good mornning and new year
I have a case I want to explain:
I met two weeks ago and the questions were easy and all my documents are intact. The consul kept my passport and told me when we print the visa we will send you a message. Then I left and after two days I received a message on the e-mail saying that my case needs additional questions with the ds5535 form and he asked me to send it as soon as possible then they said That I turned to an administrative procedure and they asked to come to the embassy to take away my passport. Today, when I checked my case, I found a refusal due to the administrative procedure
How do you explain this, is it normal, and what are the expectations?
January 5, 2023 at 10:18
Normal, you should expect to wait.
January 7, 2023 at 12:02
Thanks, I have to inquire and send messages to the embassy to remind them of my case or no need?
January 7, 2023 at 12:38
Communicating with them won’t hurt.
January 3, 2023 at 05:15
Hello brit and happy new year..I have a question for you please. Our CN is 2023AF35*** DS May 19.from Algeria. Do you think we stand a chance to become current according to the Data released? Thank you in advance.
Thank you.
January 5, 2023 at 10:19
I don’t know.
January 3, 2023 at 05:41
Hi Brit!
There are 9363 cases before and 3023 after you in the AS region. That yields approximately 18174 people before and 5868 after you.
what do you think?
January 5, 2023 at 10:19
https://youtu.be/imDgdps2daA
January 3, 2023 at 13:20
My mother sent ds260 on August 5th, have you noticed some 2nl for August?
She went to retirement from Jan 2023, does she had to update ds260 and could she be rejected because she is retired now?
January 5, 2023 at 10:23
None from August yet.
The retirement shouldn’t be a problem as long as she is financially able to support herself in the USA.
January 6, 2023 at 15:46
Does she have to unlock ds260 and change to retirement? She was employed during initial ds260 submission, and she is in retirement now but official conformation from government should arrive in month or two from now
January 6, 2023 at 23:27
No need to change that.
January 3, 2023 at 13:20
Hi Brit, I’m from Nepal and in USA on L2 visa. I’m planning to do AOS. My case no is 10050 range. There are 5k people before and 6k after me. Could you please suggest it is safe to do AOS when my case number become current (looks like in May). When I checked my case no. at CEAC site, it says nothing for me. Is it beacuse in DS-260 I mentioned I will go for AOS.
January 5, 2023 at 10:24
That is enough time for AOS, yes.
January 4, 2023 at 18:19
Hello Simon please try to answer my question I have a CAS number AF33k and my ds260 has been procceded I would like to know with this story of cutoff for Algeria what are my chances ? thank you.
January 5, 2023 at 10:34
I don’t know.
January 5, 2023 at 19:29
Hi Simon, My case no. is AS20***, Burma. Should I be concerned?
January 6, 2023 at 00:23
Watch my most recent video.
January 6, 2023 at 00:19
Hey, Simon, Nepal has cutoff Number at 21000, what is the position of Case number 12000. Is it risk ? Or Safe?
January 6, 2023 at 00:21
Come on. Use some common sense. If the highest case number is almost double the CN 12K, then pretty obviously the 12k number is in a safe range.
January 6, 2023 at 01:23
HI Brit Simon my CN AF 11000 i submitted ds 260 on jun 10 /2022 but still know i haven;t 2NL
us well as when i fill dv 2023 the first form applicant i education level some course post graduate b/c of at that time i started masters degree class but after selecting (winners)for dv 2023 on ds 260 i fill only the first degree …….so is there problem on my interview and my visa ???
January 6, 2023 at 14:30
You will need to remain patient.
The degree thing should not be a concern.
January 6, 2023 at 03:43
Hi Sir, my CN is 99** but I haven’t received my 2NL notification and am soo worry about that.
January 6, 2023 at 14:33
Patience.
January 6, 2023 at 14:51
Hello Brit! I can definitely say that there are people born in Russia with case numbers above 30***. My case is 25***. So if you mean draw cutoff – it wasn’t 18*** for Russia. But what do you think about a possibility to have final cutoffs for Russia and Uzbekistan, just like in a current bulletin, lower then for the EU region?
January 6, 2023 at 23:26
Yes – others have said the same. It seems the “cliff” at 18K is only one country – Uzbekistan.
As for final cutoffs – I don’t know.
January 7, 2023 at 12:39
Dear Simon , I frequently watch your vedios and read your blogs. My husband is a winner of dv 2023 from Asia region and our CN is 2023AS19***.. After watching your vedio and seeing ceac data , I realised that we have a significant risk of missing the chance. We have submitted our ds 260 in june and once I wrote to KCC to clarify some issues. They told me that our ds 260 has been processed and get in touch with visa bulletin updates. What does that mean ? Do you think we have any chance to get 2NL?
January 7, 2023 at 16:31
You’ll have to wait and see….
January 11, 2023 at 14:51
Hello!
When I insert my case number in Xarthisius website it says that my case number is a hole what does that mean that I am rejected?
January 15, 2023 at 09:49
No – it means you entered the incorrect number.
January 7, 2023 at 18:06
Hi Mr Britsimon,
Any likelihood for 2023OC275X a high number? Thanks
January 15, 2023 at 09:21
I have said that of all the regions, OC is probably the one that has the best chance to go current. So – maybe.
January 15, 2023 at 18:14
Thanks Britsimon, yes you did say in your video!
January 14, 2023 at 05:59
Hi Brit.
First of all, Thank you and God bless you for helping us. I have the CN 2023AS13*** and my CN became current for month February but I do not received 2NL yet. I asked from KCC and they told me that my CN is ready for seclude and can not unlock the form DS-260 but in ceac my status is NVC. Is this because the embassy is busy or what other problem does it have?
January 15, 2023 at 11:01
They will schedule your interview soon. It will show as at NVC until they send the 2NL.
January 16, 2023 at 09:15
Hi BritSimon
Thank you so much for all the very helpful information that you provide on your platforms.
1- My CN is 2023AF32K, I submitted my DS-260 in May choosing the embassy in my home country for interview location. I just moved to a neighboring country for work. Is it worth it at this stage to unlock the DS-260 to update location knowing that I can still travel back home for the interview?
2- AF32k got current for February, I haven’t received the 2NL and CEAC says “at NVC”. In your experience do you think it will go beyond March or April for me to get the 2NL?
Thanks
January 20, 2023 at 12:33
1. Probably not, although it would be worth comparing the two possible embassies to make sure you choose the best chance.
2. I don’t know. It depends on the embassies involved.
January 22, 2023 at 23:37
Hi Simon, hope you are well.
– Russian. Application for 2 (spouse). Number: 2023EU3xxx (under 4K). Submitted DS-260 earliest at 05 May 2022.
– At submission chose US location for the interview (being in US at L1 visa for work). Later at 12 Sep 2022 changed interview location to Dublin, Ireland (after reading about the internal processing issues).
– For the past 4 months only getting 1NL from KCC. CEAC says COMPLETED for both IV.
– xarthisius says folks from 10K to 30K were invited to interviews already.
After reading your FAQ (great one!) I have few questions:
1. Can I do something about it?
2. Did they lose my application? Extremely devastated, my number is so low!
3. Should I be worried?
January 23, 2023 at 18:40
You were unwise to switch to CP. You could have processed by now.
Also your ds260 would not have been started until you told them you were switching, so you have caused delay.
You must make certain that they have switched your processing to CP. Either that or get on with AOS as there is still plenty of time. That method was always your best option.
February 4, 2023 at 05:51
HI BRIT I AM AMIRI FROM AFGHANISTAN MY CASE NUMBER IS CURRENT FEBRUARY MY CASE NUMBER IS AS121XX I SUBMITTED MY DS260 IN SEPTEMBER 21 AND STILL HAVEN’T GOTTEN MY 2NL
February 4, 2023 at 20:16
That is mainly because you submitted so late.
February 5, 2023 at 11:54
when I can expect to receive my
Diversity Visa Interview Notification.I ask kcc and occ send me this mail. Your DS-260 has been processed. Interviews are scheduled numerically based on case numbers that have completed processing. Please refer to the visa bulletin at travel.state.gov to locate the current numbers being processed. This bulletin is updated after the 15th day of each month. Once an interview date has been scheduled, you will receive notification via email to check dvprogram.state.gov.
February 7, 2023 at 18:30
It depends on when you were processed, your case number and your embassy…
February 9, 2023 at 19:58
Hi Brit, I won the dv lottery but i had played single and after i got married and added my wife in the ds 260 form. now she is pregnant. I wanted to know if being pregnant is advantageous or disadvantageous
February 9, 2023 at 23:45
Neither advantageous or disadvantageous.
February 17, 2023 at 02:06
Hi Simon, thank you for your availability
my Case number is 2023AF168XX , Country BENIN and i submit my 260 forms in July 2022 what is my chances and when am I suppose to go for interview and when to fill forms, please.
February 17, 2023 at 17:13
You need to be patient. You are likely to hear quite soon.
March 4, 2023 at 20:09
Hi Simon! Thanks so much for creating DV2023 CEAC Data. It’s really helpful for understanding the processing time. I wonder, if there is any chance to get some data about embassies. Which embassy associated with each case number before they get 2NL? I’m trying to predict when my number might be current, but it’s quite impossible because I don’t see how many cases in CRO embassy with the status NVC.
Thanks!
P.S.: Egypt, 2023AF26XXX
March 9, 2023 at 21:24
Prior to the 2NL being sent we do not know anything about the case numbers.
March 11, 2023 at 03:30
do you have an idea of the total number of ghanaians who were selected in the 2023 dv lottery for country Ghana and what percentage have recieved 2NL notifications or interviewed?
March 11, 2023 at 14:51
Number of selectees (including family) here: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2022/visa-bulletin-for-august-2022.html
2NLs and other data here: https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/ceacFY23.html
March 17, 2023 at 03:02
Hi , SIR .I am just concerned why visa bulletin has not been update of April
March 18, 2023 at 16:59
Patience.
March 20, 2023 at 04:59
Hello Mr BritSimon.
May god bless you for all your assistance.
My case is 2023AF37*** and the reply from KCC on the February 27 says this: Your case number is now current for interview processing. If you need to make changes to your DS-260 you should contact the consular section where you will be interviewed, or bring the information about your changes to your interview appointment. Because your case is ready to be scheduled, KCC can no longer unlock your application.
1- CEAC status still show At NVC. Is it normal?
2- Based on your experience, what is your estimated period to recieve my 2NL ?
Thanks
March 20, 2023 at 09:29
1. Yes
2. It will vary based on your embassy status
March 20, 2023 at 21:48
Hello Sir I had my interview on 17 march consulate approved and give me a paper to how can I pick up my passport with visa i check ceac status it shows refused with a long text what’s mean ?
March 20, 2023 at 22:13
It means you have to be patient.