First – a BIG thanks to Xarthisius who has just published the CEAC data for DV2023. The data is available at his site here.
Getting the data reveals a few things as I had explained in my preview post from yesterday.
First, the High Case numbers for each region. They are:
AF is MUCH lower than I had assumed, and AS and SA are also significantly lower than my expectations. That means less holes, and whilst you might have been feeling confident at a number like AF62XXX, you must now be a little more concerned. For example, let’s say your case number is 2023AF62003 – you have only 380 cases higher than your number and 28954 before you. And remember, each case number includes the winner and the derivatives. You can check your position within the region on Xarthisius’ site.
Other findings are these points
In Asia region, it looks like Nepal hit the cutoff at just under 21000, and Iran at about 16K
Africa region has cutoff countries at about 43K, 48k and 58K. One of thoose is Egypt, and others may be Ghana, Algeria and Morocco, but I am not sure yet which is which.
In Europe it looks like we have two countries cutoff at around 18K, which is probably Uzbekistan and possibly Russia.
Neither OC nor SA have cutoffs.
In general cutoffs are not really such a big problem since almost no countries have response and success rates high enough to threaten the country cap (no country can have more than 7% of the global quota). Only Nepal has a realistic chance of hitting the cap, so there might be a little risk for the highest Nepal cases – but even that is not likely.
If you want to know why these cutoffs occur, please watch this video which explains the draw process.
In terms of progress so far this year, it looks like a pretty good start to the year. Some observations:
- 4991 visas already issued (from 2538 cases)
- 9205 cases scheduled so far (17747 people including derivatives). That includes scheduled interviews up to February.
- Response rate and DS260 processing look pretty good. If you look at the early numbers from each region, about half of the cases are already scheduled. That can only happen when people have responded, and their DS260 is processed. So – they are well over halfway through the submitted DS260s across the whole number range.
OK – that’s my initial impression of the data.
You can check your own case at CEAC
And if you wonder what the status codes mean – please read this:
The first status for every case is “AT NVC”. You can ignore the text on the case – the case has not been passed to NVC. What this status means is that the case is in one of the following situations.
- The case is not yet current.
- The case is current, BUT the DS260 has not be submitted at all, or it was submitted but not processed yet – and therefore not scheduled.
- The case is current, the form is processed, but it is waiting to be scheduled (typically because the cases have not yet been sent to the embassies yet).
PLEASE IGNORE the NVC information that appears – it is a standard message and DOES NOT APPLY to DV cases
This status is shown for a brief period when KCC has scheduled the interview, and transferred the case to the embassy. However, the embassy has not yet updated CEAC to acknowledge they have received the case.
This is the next status after in transit. It means the case has arrived at the embassy for interview. Sometimes a case will continue to show ready even after the interview.
Pretty obviously – this is the status we all want to see! The interview took place, was successful and the visa has been approved/issued.
“Refused” (2 versions)
This status can have two meanings. The usage of the status codes was updated about 2 years ago, so I should clarify the more modern use of the codes.
Cases are refused either temporarily or permanently.
Refused 221g – The temporary refusal is actually a status called 221(g) and is a period of time where someone did not have all the documents at the interview OR some additional checks are needed before the case can be adjudicated. 221(g) (commonly called AP) can last a few days or several months. The status updates during that time are almost meaningless (apart from one – see below) . To know if the refusal is the temporary type or the final refusal, you read the text under the REFUSED status on the CEAC status check site. If the text is as shown below (we call it the long text), then your case is in 221(g). Xarthisius actually determines that in his file and assigns those cases a status in his data of Refused221g.
“A U.S. consular officer has adjudicated and refused your visa application. Please follow any instructions provided by the consular officer. If you were informed by the consular officer that your case was refused for administrative processing, your case will remain refused while undergoing such processing. You will receive another adjudication once such processing is complete. Please be advised that the processing time varies and that you will be contacted if additional information is needed. For more information, please visit TRAVEL.STATE.GOV or the website for the Embassy or Consulate at which you made your visa application.”
Refused final – The other type of refusal is the permanent one. This is the status no one wants to see, meaning the interview took place and the selectee was denied. A derivative can be refused, while the principal is approved. However, if the principal is refused – all the derivatives are refused also – even if the embassy fails to update CEAC and leaves the derivatives as “ready”. It is very very rare to overcome permanent refusal. There is no official appeal process, so whilst some cases could later change from refused to issued, it is exceedingly rare (a handful of cases each year).
The permanent refusal has this text under the description on the CEAC status check site – often referred to as “the short text”. “A U.S. consular officer has adjudicated and refused your visa application. Please see the letter you received at the interview.”
This status used to be used for the 221g cases, however, it is no longer used that way. Now, this is the only useful status update that people may see before their case shows issued. Sometimes a case will go to Ready or Refused221g to “Administrative Processing”. That is actually the visa printing process happening, and the applicant can expect to see “issued” within a few days. This status lasts up to a week in normal times, but could last longer if there are problems with the visa printing process. The status looks like below and still has the “old” description that suggests Refused 221g. That is because the 221G status was generally known as “Administrative Processing” (and is still referred to that way).
For cases that are scheduled we can see the related derivative numbers. Case 01 is the principal and derivatives are case 02, 03 and so on.
May 9, 2023 at 03:54
I want to tell you about my case.
I come from Africa more precisely (Benin) with a cn 21 ***. I validated my DS in November.
I have a chance to receive the 2NL?
my cn is up to date since February but for the moment I have not received any email.
May 9, 2023 at 08:53
You have a chance.
May 15, 2023 at 03:53
Hi Brit I’m from Oceania and.my case number 2023OC2260 just need a piece of advise from you if this case number will get any chance of interview since it’s high case number
May 15, 2023 at 07:27
Hi Brit! Hope you’re doing good.
I have a worry. I’m a DV2023 winner, AF55k. I submitted my DS260 in May 2022 but by then my son hadn’t a passport yet. However, he eventually had it but I didn’t unlock my DS260 to update his passport information. I’m already current but haven’t received my 2NL yet. I’ll like to know if there’s anything I can do about it now. Hope my this doesn’t compromise my visa chances.
May 15, 2023 at 08:32
You can add his passport at the interview – no problem.
May 15, 2023 at 08:52
Ok Brit! Thank you so much! You’re the best 👌🏽
May 19, 2023 at 21:28
Thanks for your analysis, videos, and help
my case been ready since Jan this year, AF272**, It is suppose to be scheduled in Riyadh Embassy, but so far nothing came through, based on your knowledge, should I still expect a 2NL?
May 19, 2023 at 23:01
It is possible.
May 20, 2023 at 10:32
I would like to know how long can a case stay in transit?
I checked my case and it is written in transit. so I want to know how long I can have my 2NL? knowing that I come from Africa more precisely from Benin.
thank you for your reply
May 20, 2023 at 15:36
It varies, some cases are updated to ready in a few hours, others are not updated for a couple of weeks. But either way, it doesn’t affect the case.
May 21, 2023 at 03:46
OK. thank you for your reply.
I’ll let you know if there’s any news.
May 20, 2023 at 12:08
Hi britsimon.. I’m 2023 dv lottery winner from Asia. My case no AS24 * * *. What about my chances?
May 20, 2023 at 15:40
I don’t know.
May 22, 2023 at 21:32
Hello sir on 15/04/2023 I entered USA soil and that day I go to USCIS web site to pay fee for my green card text shows I am not required to pay fee but today I received a mail paper from USCIS saying that I should pay the fee for my green card I try to pay the fee but USCIS still shows after inter my A- number and CASE number , your A number and state Id indicate that you are exempt from paying this fee.
By the way I am Afghan DV2023
I don’t know what to do?
Thank you so much !
May 22, 2023 at 21:38
You could ask USCIS.
May 23, 2023 at 04:13
Hello Brit! My case status went from “refused” ( the long version) to “administrative processing” but it’s has been more than a week it’s has been showing such update. Meanwhile, those I attended interview along with have seen “issued” on their status. I want to know what might be the problem
May 23, 2023 at 07:45
Lack of patience is the only problem you have. You will see issued soon.
May 24, 2023 at 02:56
apologies for the inconvenience.
I just checked my case on ceac and it says in transit (your interview date has been provided to you).
But I check my emails and haven’t received anything.
What is the problem? according to you.
what should I do in this situation?
please give me more details.
May 25, 2023 at 09:07
You missed the email. It’s no problem, all you need to do is log in to the ESC page to get your appointment details.
May 24, 2023 at 06:54
Question : My case was processed and it was current at December 2022 . Why is second notification /2nl not sent for me? since 3 month( 3 notifications) are only left I have started to worry And I am from Ethiopia Addis Ababa, my case number is 8K,Is there problem in the embassy ? My Case number was low also I had better chance to receive the 2nd notification/Email?
May 25, 2023 at 09:14
Addis embassy have restricted the number of interviews they accept each month – so it is clear that some people will not ever get their interview and will lose their chance. Whether that happens in your case or not depends on how many people are ahead of you in the AV queue for that embassy.
May 24, 2023 at 22:49
it’s good I just received my 2nl.
May 25, 2023 at 20:14
My number is OC25XX. Wondering if that number is going to be current.
As per Visa Bulletin for July CN it has reached till 1650 only. 3 More months, is there a chance this number will be current.
May 27, 2023 at 10:57
I don’t have a prediction.
May 26, 2023 at 21:28
Hi, Brit… Please I believe you are fine. My case number is 2024AF23*** I have filled the DS-260 and submitted successfully two weeks ago, but anytime I check in my CEAC to find out it tells me invalid confirmation visa number. Please what should I do?
May 27, 2023 at 11:15
CEAC status check is not available for DV2024 cases yet
May 29, 2023 at 05:14
Checking from the Xarthisius data website on desktop and mobile phones present 2 different information.
For example, on desktop for Accra embassy, it says the current cn range worked on is 24k-25k but on the mobile phone browse, it says 24k-28k. please I want to know which one is correct and can be trusted. Thank you
May 29, 2023 at 09:06
If in doubt, download the data and read.
May 29, 2023 at 05:17
Hi Brit… a friend who is a DV2024 selectee was filling the DS-260 form but after she got to some part and saved, she can no longer access the part of the form where she needs to select the languages shes speaks and reads and the additional work and education information.
How could this issue be resolved? We need help
May 29, 2023 at 09:10
The form “reacts” to data input. So – she might be able to go back and change an answer that allows that section. But no need to obsess about it.