This week the government revealed a number of interesting secrets about how the draw process works, including when the draw happens, what is the biggest reason that causes entries to be disqualified prior to the results being announced and some insight into the processing and technology they are using to screen the cases.
Please watch the video for my thoughts and below the video I have posted some excerpts from the document that show some insights.
January 2020
DV2020 scheduling starting better than DV2019 – well yes – because the document procedure caused chaos for early DV2019 scheduling
Week Ending Jan. 3rd KCC scheduled DV applicants for February 2020. At this point in DV-2020, KCC has scheduled nearly 2,000 more DV cases than in DV-2019.
Processing DV2021 entries – massive holes rate from photos. Holes rate was noticeably lower in DV2020 compared to DV2021. “Initial Photo quality review” – meaning it is multi staged. This work is happening months before the release of results. Also speaks to holes rate, which was noticeably lower in DV2020 compared to DV2021
Week Ending Jan 24th DV-2021 Photo Quality Review: KCC performed its initial photo quality review of DV-2021 selectees and disqualified 60,000 of 143,000 selectees, a slightly lower rate than DV-2020 selectees. While further FR and biodata reviews are still coming, KCC remains optimistic that the number of selectees for DV-2021 is on track to use all available DV numbers.
February 2020
Emailing DV2020 cases for documents
Requesting Documents from DV Selectees: KCC DV Unit will proactively communicate to 10,686 selectees who have completed their DS-260 application but have not yet submitted their required documents to KCC. The hope is to expedite pending cases to documentarily complete for scheduling at posts ahead of the beginning of the DV-2021 season in May.
Week Ending in Feb. 28th Increased DV correspondence volume: KCC received a higher than normal volume of inquiries related the DV scheduling difficulties caused by COVID-19 related disruptions. The majority of the inquiries were Iranian applicants unable to travel to appointments in Ankara and UAE. A smaller number of inquiries asked about new public charge regulations, which we directed to travel.state.gov.
April 2020
KCC gets the winners in April and pre-processes them
DV-2021 Ingestion into DVIS: KCC received the full package ofDV-2021 cases from CST for ingestion into DVIS. KCC will begin pre-processing of those cases in the coming weeks. As the launch of Entrant Status Check will be delayed by one month, this gives KCC a chance to examine the data to prepare to handle the new passport requirement implemented in DV-2021.
May 2020
KCC asking for a second draw before the results are released. Target goals mentioned for regions.
KCC engaging with CST to add DV cases for DV-2021: KCC has requested that CST perform another draw of DV-2021 cases in order to meet expected processing demands. Initial numbers were short of target goals for AF, SA, and OC regions, and given the expected rise in disqualifications due to the new passport requirement, KCC felt it prudent to add cases in those regions. The work should be ready for ESC launch on June 6.
June 2020
1 million concurrent hits!! Lower than usual because of launch on a weekend.
Week Ending Jun 12th DV 2021 Entrant Status Check Successfully Launched: The 2021 Diversity Immigrant Visa Entrant Status Check website was successfully launched on Saturday, June 6, with over two million DV applicants checking the status of their applications and over 20,000 receiving positive responses. The website saw a peak of one million concurrent hits which were successfully handled by DOS systems. Website traffic was lower during this launch than in previous years, possibly because it took place on a Saturday rather than on a work day. The website will be available for applicants to check their status until September 30, 2021. DV-2021 interviews are scheduled to begin on October I, 2020.
10,000 DS260s in first 2 weeks
Week Ending Jun 19th DV 2021 Interest High: In the two weeks following the launch of ESC for DV-2021, KCC has received nearly 10,000 DS-260 applications from applicants pursuing their DV selection. Kee has also noted a large increase in email and phone inquiries regarding the status of the DV lottery in light of the temporary suspension of routine visa services worldwide.
October 2020
Lottery entries being reviewed as they come in, during the entry period and photos already passing through the FR software
Week Ending in Oct. 23rd Diversity Visa Lotter Enrollments Up from Last Year: KCC has received a total of 3,365,672 entrants and derivatives so far for DV 2022, up 18 percent from this time last year. Initial participation was actually twice as high when compared to the previous year. Also of note, KCC received its first two DV entrants with seemingly legitimate passport exemptions due to their inability to obtain Cuban passports in advance of the lottery.
Week Ending in Oct. 30th
DV Photo Processing: KCC has reviewed an average of about 1,000 photos each day since the entry period opened. These photos are referred for Manual Eye Placement (MEP) because the software could not recognize a face. Typically, many of the images are not faces but random or blank images, while some need a human to mark the eye location to assist the facial recognition software. The update to our FR software this year appears to have been very effective as we have not received a single face photo in MEP. VO/I believes that starting next year we may be able to automatically block the upload of a photo that is not a face, and MEP could be discontinued.
June 3, 2023 at 09:44
I appreciated this part”…believes that starting next year we may be able to automatically block the upload of a photo that is not a face, and MEP could be discontinued.”
If understood it means if the entrant doesn’t meet requirements you can not submit your application?
June 3, 2023 at 10:29
I think you may be partially correct, and that would be a logical next step. Meaning, if an entrant tries to enter an invalid photo (without a discernable face), don’t allow the upload so the entrant can obtain/use a better photo. But clearly that is not what they have done so far. Remember this is what was discussed in 2020.
So for now it may simply be that they have rejected those cases automatically – which would cause more holes. And what would more holes lead to – higher case numbers. And what are we seeing this year…
June 5, 2023 at 01:47
Hi Simon, to be honest with you, I really don’t want to loose this opportunity giving to me, because I can’t trust Nigeria embassy on doing great job on dv 2024 case’s, I want to fill my current address as Cameroon then move to Cameroon around March 2024 since my interview will be around may but my family will stay back in Nigeria especially my husband who is from Cameroon because of our business then come down during the interview. With this, are we good to go? OR Should I fill my current address Nigeria then choose Cameroon as my interview location then if they didn’t give me my choice of location I can now send mail to KCC to unlock my DS 260 and change address at the same time change interview location will that be ok. Please choose the best for me. Thank you
June 5, 2023 at 09:01
I can’t choose for you, but if you list your address now as Cameroon then you would probably need a police certificate from that country. I generally say don’t lie, but when the embassies won’t play fair it makes people wonder why they should play fair.
June 5, 2023 at 06:45
Hello sir, I am the 2024 winner from Georgia, case EU47xxx. My embassy is small, and they only process a few cases each year. I am afraid that I might not be called for an interview. What do you suggest if I start writing to the consular offices of European countries and ask them to transfer my case from Georgia to their country? The only reason I am asking them to do so is that I want to ensure that I will be called for an interview. So, based on your experience, could my request automatically disqualify me or decrease my chances of getting an interview, considering the fact that I don’t have any other reason to move my case?
June 5, 2023 at 09:24
It is **FAR** too soon to be doing anything like that. You won’t be ready for an interview for well over 9 months at the earliest – and “who knows” what conditions will exist at any embassy by then.
June 5, 2023 at 09:36
Thanks for your response. I agree with you, and I am not going to pursue that option at the moment. I just wanted to understand the potential risks beforehand, so that I can prepare for any procedures and document requirements of other countries. If there is a risk that this method could be considered “cheating” and result in a ban, I will definitely not proceed with it. However, if there are no risks involved, then I would certainly consider reaching out to all possible countries.
June 5, 2023 at 10:16
No risks.
June 5, 2023 at 12:25
Do you think it’s okay to indicate in an email to consulates the real reason why I want to change my case to another country, or should I write a more standard text like “I moved to XYZ country, and that’s why I want to have an interview here”? (I want to mention that I can only visit EU countries with tourist visas for three months.)
June 5, 2023 at 16:09
Again, I don’t think you should even be thinking about that at this point.
June 18, 2023 at 04:58
This is a question regarding your last comment in this thread. I understand that it’s too early to think about that, but I wanted to hear your opinion about it. (Also, regarding my last question in this thread.)
June 19, 2023 at 06:28
It helps if you can be more clear about your question.
June 5, 2023 at 16:32
Conclusion to gather from this massive revelations:
1. It is actually better to get a professional photo as shadows or bad lightning DO have an effect.
2. It would be better to have the Passport rule again, because there seems to be A LOT of fraud happening, and some of those do actually pass through and probably get visas.
3. It does seem that applying early does give an advantage to be selected, although this is not implicitly said, there seems to be evidence that the humans organizing this have a say in the order in which people register.
June 5, 2023 at 16:43
1. Well yes, if people cannot take a photo that meets the requirements.
2. Hmmm, there are pros and cons to the passport rule. It places a burden on people to enter a lottery which is free – so 20 million people have to have passports (which are relatively expensive in some countries) because 100K will need them.
3. No – the draw is still random. The time of entry makes no difference to the chances.
June 6, 2023 at 03:01
Dear Mr. Simon,
I was previously convicted of a conditional sentence, which has since been expunged from my record. Despite its removal, I believe it is essential to disclose this previous charge for transparency and to provide accurate information regarding my background.
Am I right?
June 6, 2023 at 10:49
Yes
July 5, 2023 at 15:25
I am a #Goodluck plaintiff from 2021. I want to inquire for my sister that just won AF67*** if Doc submissions are still ongoing compulsorily??
July 5, 2023 at 15:31
No documents required for DV2023 and DV2024.
June 6, 2023 at 03:55
Hi Simon, can I use the same photo of my self ,wife and kids to enter for my wife as a principal applicant in her entry? I am getting confused with the FR issue.
During the entry period , I make sure that a professional photographer takes the shot for my self,wife and kids then i do the entries.Should i use the same photos to enter for my wife or after I’m done with mine another set of photo taken for myself,wife and kids to enter in my wife’s entry.
Do not forget the entries are separate though.
June 6, 2023 at 10:50
You need one set of photos and it is normal to use them on each others entry.
October 28, 2023 at 20:33
Hi Simon,
Thank you for all the help you provide.
I am wondering if my non-existent credit score and minor delinquent utility bill from 2005 have affected my chances all these years; I’ve been entering the lottery for more than two decades in vain. And after hearing that KCC searches their database in your video, I am even more concerned now. I would greatly appreciate it if you could give me your expertise.
Thank you!
October 28, 2023 at 22:39
The draw is random. Nothing to do with credit scores and so on.