I wanted to update with my thoughts on what we are seeing from the CEAC data for Nepal. People keep asking me when the cutoff will fall on Nepal and that cutoff point is critical for Asia as a whole. Let me explain my thoughts.
Currently the CEAC data shows 500 KDU selectees per 1000 case numbers. Not all of the KDU interviews will be Nepalese, but let’s assume they are (almost all will be). So at that rate there would 4000 Nepalese selectees by 8000. Whilst the data shows that Nepal is probably limited in the draw to a high case number of 9100 or so, getting 4000 selectees out of the 4991 selectees is possible because some of the original 4991 will not have responded – so it would make sense that the cases between 8000 and 9100 could have around 500/550 selectees.
OK – so out of the 4000, how many will be approved. DV2014 shows about 10% of Nepal embassy cases are refused, stay on AP or stay at ready. The ready ones at the end of the year are people who give up after submitting their DS260 or sometimes you will see derivatives connected to refused and AP cases (the principal is refused, but the derivatives stay at “Ready” – even though they cannot benefit from the case).
So – if 10% don’t get approved, theoretically the 4000 selectees could be sufficient to hit the limit. That is therefore “possible” by AS8000. At AS7500 it is NOT possible. So – if your number is less than AS7500, please don’t even bother asking whether you are safe or not. Above 7500 there is some risk, the risk increasing as the number gets higher. The final cutoff would be somewhere between 7600 (lowest) to around 8600 (highest). It is not possible to be more precise than that at this time – but of course the longer things go, the more accurate our guesses will be. Up to now I have been thinking the Nepal cutoff would be 8600 to 8800 – but looking at the data I think it could be earlier – so probably in the early 8XXX range.
I am ignoring AOS since that is very small for Nepal. I also note that Nepalese cases are largely not delayed by the DS260 processing – I think that is due to the agents in Nepal doing an efficient job of submitted the forms early in the year.
Now – what does that mean for Asia as a whole. Well, it could re-raise the possibility of a cutoff in August, which means “rest of Asia” would make progress in August and September. As I have explained before, the highest number for rest of Asia still depends on Iranian AP cases. The data shows that Iranians are still highly likely to be put on AP. Most of the Iranian cases are interviewed at Ankara, Abu Dhabi and Yerevan (look for AS region cases at ANK, ABD, YRV in the spreadsheet). It appears as though the AP timing is roughly the same as it was last year. To illustrate that statement take a look at the graph below.
The increase of the number of AP cases among the three embassies processing Iranian cases is more or less linear. That suggests AP is lasting at least 4+ months, otherwise we would see less AP cases in the lower case numbers which would have (mostly) been interviewed earlier on in the year).
So – based on that data it seems likely that AP cases will be as slow to resolve as they were last year. That is bad news for Iranians who get put on AP late in the year, but good news for selectees from the rest of Asia. This would mean Nepal would take around 3500 of the AS quota (8500) and Iran would take something around 2000 to 2500 – leaving 2500+ for the rest of Asia. That should ensure the final AS number will be well above CN10000. It seems unlikely we will see a number as high as last year, but cases in the 10000 to 12000 range have a pretty good chance.
Update regarding Nepal and Asia
March 4, 2015 at 19:40
Ok, maybe a stupid question, please forgive my ignorance:
Is it possible that this is the reason why the VB progress is slow, I mean because KCC are aware that Nepal will max early?
Thank you for your work.
March 4, 2015 at 20:54
KCC are controlling the progress of Asia as a whole based on Nepal in particular – so they are very aware of what Nepal is doing….
March 4, 2015 at 19:42
so would you go as far as saying that for CN numbers AS13XXX and above, it’d pretty much be a non brainer?
March 4, 2015 at 20:55
I would not go that far yet. There are too many moving parts to be precise about this, but yes, 13XXX is certainly risky.
March 4, 2015 at 21:19
more so a CN that’s just a couple of hundred short of 15000?
March 4, 2015 at 22:19
A case number near 15000 is almost certain to not get an interview.
March 4, 2015 at 23:03
Tbh nepal should just be banned from entering the lottery altogether, seems like KCC is biased towards nepalese cases, otherwise they’d put them on a separate vb number.
March 4, 2015 at 23:10
Actually you are just demonstrating your lack of understanding of the process by saying that. Nepal cases have less chance than other countries in Asia, even though they are supposed to have an equal chance according to the law. So – KCC most certainly are not biased toward Nepal.
March 4, 2015 at 23:22
Regardless they take up too many visas already, one country eats up 8500 visas while the rest of the continent only gets the “leftover” somehow you deem that fair..
If kcc insists that nepal still be eligible for dv lottery, they should separate their vb so as to not slow down the rest of asia
If nepal weren’t eligible, asia vb pace would be much faster, like that of EU and AF
March 5, 2015 at 02:30
Firstly, Nepal (or any one country) is limited to no more than 7% of the global visas – 3500. That is law.
The law also says that within a region everyone who applies should have an equal chance of being selected. So – if a country has more entries – they get more winners – and any country can increase its winners that way. However, Nepal had so many entries that they should have had about 11000 selectees. However during the draw process every Nepal winner above the first 4991 Nepal selectees was disqualified. – about 6000 winners. They never even knew they had won. That is why the Nepal cases are concentrated in the first 9100 case numbers.
So – in fact, a Nepalese entrant has less than half the chance that you had. Now, once the processing begins it is on case number order, so what would be the justification to further hit the Nepalese winners by holding them back. If someone holds case number 1, he should be in line before case number 5001 – right?
So – perhaps you understand better now. More detailed explanation here – https://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/
March 17, 2015 at 11:58
Simon can u guess my when I get my interview ? As59xx am from beirut Lebanon . And also, when do u think we should receive a notification letter about the exact date by email.
Thanks dude
March 17, 2015 at 13:31
Jume or July interview, 2nl in April or May
March 17, 2015 at 13:57
Simon thanks a lot for ur answer but is there anything called 1nl that comes before 2nl?
March 17, 2015 at 16:56
The 1NL is the letter that says you have been selected for further processing….
March 5, 2015 at 00:20
WHAT ABOUT AS78## RISKLY????
March 5, 2015 at 02:03
Please read the post again – as it addresses the number range….
March 5, 2015 at 01:25
You mentioned “The final cutoff would be somewhere between 7600 (lowest) to around 8600 (highest). ” do you mean that Asia will probably reach as8600 at best?
March 5, 2015 at 02:10
I think so – That would eliminate about ~250 people (~150 cases) out of the 4991 – so that is about the max. Look at it this way. In DV2013 Nepal wasn’t limited. They had 4370 selectees and received 3377 visas (77.2% of selectees got visas). If we apply the 77.2% to the 4991 we would need 3853 visas – which is too many. So – at the same response/success rate as DV2013 the top 300/400 cases would miss out.
March 5, 2015 at 02:55
so my cn is a little bit hight than 86xx, meaning that i’m not safe anymore….in the beginning when i read your posts about predicting the final cutoff for asia will be around 11xxx if my memory serves correctly, but that is no longer the case i assume?
March 5, 2015 at 03:08
Are you charging to Nepal?
March 5, 2015 at 03:37
no , am from the rest of asia @@ oh so you meant the the 8600 range is specifically applied to Nepal only? for the rest of asia it would go higher as you have predicted?
March 5, 2015 at 13:29
Exactly. Nepal will be held back early – and when they are (August probably), that will cause the Asia number to increase faster
March 5, 2015 at 16:46
As per your predictions for the next VB (May interviews) CN AS – 53XX to 54XX
and that hopfully would be much better, awaiting for the next VB to be released shortly
March 8, 2015 at 18:52
Well..my cn is 77**.. Will my case become current or not? I am from nepal. From your analysis..it looks like my case is on risk now.
March 9, 2015 at 00:19
I think you will be fine.
April 16, 2015 at 01:06
If so, what abt 84xx for Nepal?
April 16, 2015 at 01:09
Very small chance….
March 8, 2015 at 22:59
So my number of AS12185? does that fall under the category of “pretty good chance” as well?
March 9, 2015 at 00:22
Yes – not certain, but a good chance.
March 11, 2015 at 16:49
why April VB got late this month?
it should be released on 9th or 10th of Mar’15
March 11, 2015 at 16:57
They have until the 15th each month to release it – so it isn’t “late” (even though it is usually released by now).
March 11, 2015 at 18:29
Per April visa bulletin Asia went to 5275, do you think after this the number will go faster for Asia? You talked about density and holes. According to that when do you think AS6300 will be current?
March 11, 2015 at 18:37
Looks like it will be July….
March 11, 2015 at 19:35
hello . my cn is as14200 , Do I have a chance , or must I go fishing ?
March 11, 2015 at 19:43
Enjoy the fishing… 🙁
March 11, 2015 at 20:12
Who knows ? but I am lucky man every time and I believe , I WILL MAKE IT . not by my power , but by God willing .
March 11, 2015 at 20:28
Good luck.
March 11, 2015 at 23:26
hey simon, you sure are good with this stuff and i am grateful for your expertise, so given the latest developments………..what you said to me a messages up about my number having a good chance, does that still stand? AS12185
March 11, 2015 at 23:53
Yeah still the same – it is not 100% safe but if Iran AP is as bad as last year you still have a good chance.
March 11, 2015 at 23:56
excuse my ignorance but AP stands for what?
March 11, 2015 at 23:58
Administrative Processing – a period of time where the embassy are waiting for missing documents or running additional background checks.
March 12, 2015 at 00:11
ok…….I guess Iran is the region where everything’s slow……..Thanks for your expertise really, I understand nothing’s 100 percent……..but i really would like not to spend the entire Spring obsessing about this…….and you’ve made me feel much better than i would’ve been feeling had i not had your information
So I guess like you said before, August would be the month I would start looking for the jump? or could it happen sooner?
March 12, 2015 at 00:39
The final VB will come out in July – so the May and June VBs are going to be crucial.
March 12, 2015 at 00:44
Hai .. can u guess my interview month c.no AS 75** from sri lanka??
March 12, 2015 at 01:30
August probably.
March 12, 2015 at 05:23
Hi.. Britsimon my cn is 65** from Nepal.. from ur views below 7600 is not risky. is it sure..? If sure when it will be current..?
March 12, 2015 at 06:06
65XX might squeeze into July…
My earlier analysis in thios link still stands. https://britsimonsays.com/update-regarding-nepal-and-asia/
March 12, 2015 at 14:27
Hi.. can u guess my interview month CN AS 752* from Kuwait ??
Thanks
March 12, 2015 at 16:42
Probably August
March 12, 2015 at 17:01
ThaNks for the rich informative analysis
What I have concluded that for nepalis the max is between 7600-8600
Other part of Asia until 10000 or may up to 12000 if iranians had bad luck again!! And that would b the last 2 vbs
Finger crossed
March 12, 2015 at 17:46
Yep – exactly.
March 12, 2015 at 17:30
I HVAE TOW QUASTIONS FOR YOU
1- 103** ASIA . REST OF ASIA
ITS SAFE OR JUST GOOD CHANCE
.
2- WILL BE THERE BIG JUMP BEFORE AGUST ?
March 12, 2015 at 17:49
1. Very good chance not 100% safe (depends on Iran AP)
2. I expect Nepal to cutoff in August – and only then would be see ROA jump.
March 14, 2015 at 06:04
Hi Britsimon,
In which month do you expect Asia cn 675* interview.
March 14, 2015 at 06:15
Possibly July or August
March 15, 2015 at 01:21
Hi
My CN arround 145## , I need to know if I have any chance to get an interview
I read up your analyst but still need your clerification noting that I am from syria
March 15, 2015 at 02:46
I think it is VERY unlikely (almost impossible) for you to get an interview. Sorry.
March 16, 2015 at 23:13
don’t depend on this site , I’m sure you will make it .. just cheer up ..
March 16, 2015 at 23:22
What a silly thing to say when you clearly don’t know what you are talking about.
March 15, 2015 at 07:00
Hi.. can u guess my interview month CN AS 606* from Iran ?? and as I will be interviewed at Kuala Lumpur do you think the process of clearance would be faster?
March 15, 2015 at 23:19
Probably July, maybe June. KL might be better – I don’t know for sure.
March 16, 2015 at 20:40
Hi Britsimon. In your analysis you said that you ignored AOS from Nepal. My case number is AS67XX. I have been following your posts and looks like I will be current in July or August. I will be doing AOS. Are all the AOS cases are completed on time before september? Should I be worried?
March 16, 2015 at 22:09
I ignored AoS from Nepal because there are relatively few cases (like YOU!).
AoS cases process in a different way. IN order to process in time you must take advantage of the early filing memo – and if you do that you stand a very good chance of completing before the end of the year – although you might have to push things along yourself.
March 17, 2015 at 00:10
Thanks for your suggestion! I am going to do the early filing. I have everything ready except my medicals which I will do next month. What do you mean by “push things yourself”? Is there anything else I can do to make the process faster?
March 17, 2015 at 01:00
Yes – you have to use the tools available to you (Infopass, the memo, expedite and so on). That is all something for later.
PLease make sure you are involved at this forum where “Mom” can help. And make sure you read the spreadsheet on the first post of that thread.
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2015-aos-only.7
March 16, 2015 at 21:26
hi.. can you guess my interview month CN AS82xx from Yemen
March 16, 2015 at 22:04
Probably August – but of course if you were planning to interview in Yemen you MUST change that otherwise you will not be interviewed at all.
March 17, 2015 at 12:50
Hi, BritSimon.
Could you predict when my interview comes?
AS10100 from Japan.
As you mentioned, my cn has a good chance. So It will be sep..?
March 17, 2015 at 13:33
Yes, September, possibly August
March 17, 2015 at 13:39
Hi Brit,
I read your post again and again but I am still confused. My CN is around 7860 from Nepal .is there any chances if yes when I get my 2nd letter.I loose my hope so plz suggest me…….
March 17, 2015 at 16:55
Yes great chance – August interview, 2NL in June.
March 18, 2015 at 04:49
U mean if iranian cases are on AP and get slow it is benifit for rest of asia?? will it help nepal for final cutoff goes higher then cn 8000?? Do i have a good chance of getting 2Nl of cn 809* ( DS-260 23 may 2014)
Im loosing my hope 🙁
March 18, 2015 at 05:02
The Iranian AP has no impact on Nepal.
You still have some chance…
March 18, 2015 at 05:22
Okay thank u ,and do u have an idea about the highest case no from nepal? I heard around the range of cn 10000. So if its true , we have a pretty good chance isn’t it??
March 18, 2015 at 13:41
I think the final CN for Asia will be between 11000 and 12500
March 19, 2015 at 13:39
In 2014 Nepal reaches at 9500 but why not in this year.. At that time total selectees of Nepal is above 6000 but this time less then 5000. I don’t know why this time could be less .any chances of mine CN around 7860..thank you for your support once again.
March 19, 2015 at 14:20
There are more entries from Nepal this year and less from other Asian countries. That has increased the density of the cases for Nepal, and that is why the cutoff will be lower. However I think 7860 has a very good chance.
March 21, 2015 at 04:34
hi simon
my case no. is 7750. according to visa bulletin the increasment of no. only 500 but the last year 2014 increasment is 1000. So what is the chances of getting 2nd letter for 7750.
March 21, 2015 at 15:03
Excellent chance of getting to 7750
March 21, 2015 at 16:46
Hi sir
Do you know what is the highest case number of Nepal and I think up to now around 2400 visa are gone from Nepal (ready+issued) and 1100 left so up to what case number consider to safe for Nepal. How many people process for 2nd letter from Nepal out off 4991.you said case number 7860 has good chance is still alive…
March 21, 2015 at 18:38
The highest Nepal case is about 9100.the ready cases are not issued.
As I said 7860 gas a.Good chance.
March 21, 2015 at 18:41
hello simon..
i m from nepal. my case no. is 7737 i would like to know is there any chances to get 2nd letter. if yes then when will be interview
March 21, 2015 at 18:51
Good chance. August interview.
March 21, 2015 at 21:51
Britsimon, I follow the immgiration.com AOS forums rigorously and have always found your comments very useful.
Like @newbee I’m also doing AOS but my number is higher AS75**. I’m beginning to think AOS is hopeless at this point for my number. What do you think? I’m a Connecticut resident (if that provides any idea about FOs and such).
Furthermore, If I decide not to submit I-485 now, what will happen to me if I have to leave the US and attempt to come back? I’m on F1 visa right now. I have been told that there is a possibility of denial at entry, but It’d be great if you could share anything more regarding this. For instance, do you know that this is a certainty or if there is a time scale involved (for instance travel after Sept 2015)?
March 21, 2015 at 23:27
You’ll be fine with thatb number. You will probably be current in August – meaning you can file in June, and that is enough time for AoS – we had cases last year current in September and approved by the 12th.
As for AoS stuff – stick with answers from Mom!
March 27, 2015 at 13:09
This year {2015) 1303 selected in Sri Lanka. My question is there are all people or only case numbers?
March 27, 2015 at 16:07
The selectees published by USCIS includes family members.
March 29, 2015 at 21:37
hello BritSimon,
What is your latest update/thought on at what number will Nepal be stopped out? 7500? 8500?
March 29, 2015 at 22:08
I published a post on that recently – after some more time and seeing more data I might update that post.
March 31, 2015 at 06:25
is Iran AP going to be as slow as last year -maybe slower- ??! (please give a percentage of your guess)
March 31, 2015 at 17:04
I can’t be that precise.
April 13, 2015 at 23:06
Hello sir i always see ur post i belive your past years pridication.plz say me how many chance get 2 nd letter?my case no is 820* (Nepal).Can i miss my interview?
April 14, 2015 at 00:57
THat number is looking risky (because Nepal will hit the 7% limit). YOu will have to wait to see…
April 16, 2015 at 09:17
I have found the highest case number from Nepal is 12*** , does this afrect the cut off number for Nepal?
April 16, 2015 at 14:07
If that is correct and not a misunderstanding, it would be an outlier. So no affect.
April 17, 2015 at 08:53
hello sir i m from nepal . last time you said that my case no. 7737 got good chance & interview in august.. but the increasing no. is so low. do you think that still i have good chances & i may get interview.. i m feeling hopeless now sir plz let me know..
April 17, 2015 at 20:02
Still the same good chance.
April 18, 2015 at 03:53
Hi Simon
Based on what we got our CN
It’s luck or what . Because I got AS171xx from Jordan apply from United Arab Emirates
Regards
April 18, 2015 at 05:28
Yes the ordering is random.
April 18, 2015 at 17:09
Respected britsimon sir; according to your above article for final cutoff for nepal is same or changed by month of may VB ? pls how many chance for inerview between 7500 to 7600 frm nepal. can we get chance to help your tree house fund after getting visa.as75**-76** frm nepal. thank you so much.
April 19, 2015 at 02:41
7500 to 7600 has an excellent chance. I expect the cutoff to be slightly above that.
April 20, 2015 at 06:17
what abt 821X Nepal?
April 20, 2015 at 14:39
That is a risky range – all you can do is wait and see….
June 10, 2015 at 17:10
brit sir …namastey frm nepal.just now; are u constant your thought. may I will get chance for interview? case number 7550 pld..thank you
June 10, 2015 at 21:33
Assuming that is a Nepalese case, it is slightly risky – we can only wait and see…
April 23, 2015 at 04:30
hi simon
i m from nepal. my question is what’s the last case no. after cutoff in nepal ? My case no. is AS7700-AS7800 & What’s the last month of nepal to recieve 2nd letter?
April 23, 2015 at 04:35
The cutoff will probably be quite close to your number – all you can do is wait and hope. The last interviews are in September, but it is likely that Nepal will max out in August (VB published in June).
May 6, 2015 at 05:19
you still think Asia will reach 11000
BTW my cn as11500 any chance right now
May 12, 2015 at 01:53
hi simon
i m from nepal in visa bulletin i saw except nepal is 6475. it mean nepal last cut-off is this case no. 6475. from now nepal not going to get second letter right. i thought till july case no. will be update for second letter. but why now. i m feeling so bad . Is it this happen due to earthquake in nepal. so they cut-off.
May 12, 2015 at 14:00
We don’t know it is the final cut off number.
May 13, 2015 at 05:38
hello simon,
i am from Nepal and i got my first letter for 2016. My case number is 69** . when might i get my second letter?Is there a good chance for this case number?
thankyou.
May 13, 2015 at 21:54
Yes a good chance – but the 2NL will be about 1 year from now.
May 13, 2015 at 15:37
Hi Simon, thanks very much for the post. I am asking this for my girlfriend since she just got selected for 2016 lottery. Her CN is AS10xxx and she is from Taiwan. So is this a good chance that she will be interviewed? I know you must have been busy but it would be really appreciated if you could kindly answer the question. Thanks very much and have a nice day.
May 13, 2015 at 18:51
I don’t have enough information about the case number ranges to be 100% certain about that number. We will know more in due course – for now I would say it is a pretty good number.
May 14, 2015 at 08:01
hello simon
I m bijay from nepal. AS6475 is it the final cut-off for nepal ? or till july case no. may be update for nepal. My case no. is AS7740 to AS7750. Is there any posssibility to get 2nd letter for me.
May 14, 2015 at 20:54
I do not believe 6475 is final – however, I am not sure the number will get to your number. All you can do is wait and see. Good luck.
May 18, 2015 at 05:01
Hello Simon,
Thanks for all your help so far!
I have conversed with you in the past about feasibility of completing AOS for my CN number AS75**. Given newer developments, and since I’m from Nepal, I think the best route for me now is doing CP. This means starting a whole new journey of research. It’d be very helpful if you could point out some resources/forums (I’m going to start from your website) where I could start looking up. I also have a few questions in the meantime:
1) How long does it take to switch from AOS to CP?
2) I’m on F1 visa. Are the consequences of denial of green card (or not completing the process) the same for CP and AOS when it comes to entering the US afterwards?
best regards,
– Nripesh
May 18, 2015 at 05:13
I think it is a bad idea to change to CP at this point.
1. There is some evidence that AoS cases are less impacted by the country cutoff.
2. AoS cases can be processed fast even if they only go current in September. It is stressful but it can be done – several AoS cases in the immigration forum we examples of that. To make sure you HAVE TO take advantage of early filing.
3. DS260 processing for AoS cases is faster. I’m not sure why that would be, but the flipside of that is that switching to CP might cause some additional processing.
Regarding your question 2 – yes I think the same – but ask Mom on the forum.
May 18, 2015 at 06:18
Thanks for the quick response.
If I may, can I ask why particularly do you think it might be a bad idea to switch? From my understanding it takes about 2-3 months. That should roughly be fine by September, before which its unlikely that I’m getting interviewed. However, I imagine with so much issues KCC had this year, I shouldn’t take that chance?
1) Are you implying that I could send my documents without worrying about the Nepal specific cutoff because this is AoS?
2) Even if I go by the normal schedule, can I file by end of June or early July (If the point is to only make sure if I’m going to be current in the next month – I shouldn’t worry since that’d be for the last month)? The memo says filing before 6 weeks is fine. Can I file earlier than that?
This is an unrelated query. I saw you comment on someone’s GCSE a-level related question in the forum. I did my GCSE’s in Nepal. I have my original certificate of grades but that was issued by GCSE Cambridge and not by my high school. I do have something from my high school that says I did pass high school. Do I need to worry about this? I’m concerned because for AoS the American officer might not be sure about it. I do however have bachelors and masters degree and have documentation to prove that.
best regards!
May 18, 2015 at 15:09
1. Yes that is what I am implying although it is not something backed up by law.
2. You can file AoS as soon as the VB is published that announces your number as current. You cannot file earlier than that – but it gives you about 6 to 7 weeks headstart.
3. Again, under AoS they are more likely to be swayed by the higher level degrees, but to be safe take all the GCSEs and school history with you too.
AoS for DV is quite rare so many officers don’t know the rules that well – that helps and hinders, but with the right pushing you can get your case through fine. It is your call though – you do what you think is best.
May 18, 2015 at 23:01
Thanks again. I’ll have to think and act quickly (if I do decide to switch). If need be, If need be I’ll ask around a little more in the forum but for now this has been pretty helpful.
best,
– Nripesh
May 18, 2015 at 16:47
hello
i am from Nepal . My case number is about 9 thousand . when might i get my second letter?Is there a good chance for this case number?
thankyou.
May 18, 2015 at 20:35
I’m sorry there is not much chance for this number – you almost certainly will not get an interview.
June 11, 2015 at 06:22
Hi Brit,
What has been highest and lowest cutoffs for Nepal. Thank you.
June 11, 2015 at 06:43
It doesn’t matter – the numbers vary year to year,