Firstly, many thanks to those of you that spent your own precious time in scraping the data over the last few days – some of you are doing an amazing selfless task and I am delighted to respond to those people who put in that effort.
The data has a story to tell – so feel free to go and take a look at the data as published on Xarthisius’ site, here –
https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/ceacFY19.html
Now – it should be very obvious to anyone that has been paying attention that the new document procedure has had a heavy impact. The data shows exactly that impact. As of the latest CEAC data, here are the numbers. Pay particular attention to the Issued, AP, Refused and Ready numbers.
And then contract those numbers with numbers from DV2018 – here:
We can see that we are far behind in issued, refused and AP, and the DV2019 Ready numbers are slightly behind DV2018 also. It is true to say that EU in DV2018 was unusually ahead, but even so the 13500 visas we see issued at this point is not enough. Put simply, not enough interviews have been held, and not enough are scheduled. That is because of the new document procedure.
NONE of the regions are close to the quotas, and all regions (apart from AF perhaps) are pretty well advanced in terms of VB pace.
So – what does that mean. Well for some months now, people will have noticed I have been separating what is “mathematically” possible from what is “logistically” possible. And that is the story that the CEAC data is now showing clearly. There are 6 months left of interviews (4 VBs) and in that time they could issue around 36000 visas – a pace of 6000 per month. BUT that is significantly faster than progress to this point and each month they fail to hit that 6k figure will make the goal harder to reach. Now – there is NO LAW that says they MUST issue all the visas, but I have seen months of over 6000 issued visas (in previous years), but if they stick with the current plan, they won’t get close to filling the quotas.
I have recently expressed this as two possible scenarios as follows:
A) *IF* KCC change the process that is causing the backlog (which I suspect they are doing, but cannot be certain) then the backlog cases will take the majority of the available interviews and the VB number would not need to increase rapidly.
B) HOWEVER, if they continue with the process as is (that causes cases to be in backlog because they have not submitted documents) then KCC will have to increase the VB number rapidly and even go current in order to fill the interview slots.
So will it be scenario A or B – I HAVE NO IDEA!!! So, for that, the best idea is “Wait and see”. It is NOT POSSIBLE to look at this as anything mathematically predictable anymore – so please don’t ask for my predictions. I don’t have any. All we can do is watch and see what they do with the VB, with interviews and see how fast the visas issued count can rise.
May 3, 2019 at 16:06
My case number is AF27xxx,KCC sent me an email to send supporting documents and I sent the supporting documents on may 1 so in which month should I expect my 2NL and interview date… ?
May 3, 2019 at 16:36
Maybe late this month for July interview or perhaps next month for August interview.
May 3, 2019 at 16:59
shall I call and check if they are satisfied with the documents ?
May 3, 2019 at 17:34
You can if you want.
April 15, 2019 at 23:31
Hi Brits,
What’s the difference between AP and READY? I attended the interview, was denied but my case is still reading Ready.
April 16, 2019 at 03:48
Sounds like the embassy simply didn’t update your case…
April 16, 2019 at 14:56
My immigrant visa was approved by the consular officer during the interview couple of weeks ago last March. However, I have not yet received the issued visa, and the case is still on Ready status. Kindly, advise about this situation, please!
April 17, 2019 at 02:01
You have to wait.
April 17, 2019 at 04:39
Sure, but is the approval decision in the interview was final, or this review may result in a different conclusion? what are the procedures usually taken by the embassy during such time, and how is this situation different than AP?
April 17, 2019 at 22:49
No the decision in the interview was not final. You ARE on AP – they simply have not updated the status. So – wait.
April 17, 2019 at 23:53
BritSimon
on April 17, 2019 at 10:49 pm wrote:
“No the decision in the interview was not final. You ARE on AP – they simply have not updated the status. So – wait.”
Reply:
The case status was already updated a couple of days after the interview and remained Ready not AP!
April 18, 2019 at 13:15
That doesn’t alter my reply.
April 10, 2019 at 08:27
Hi Brit.thanks for your endless support.i got my visa approved yesterday 9-4-19.God bless you.
INTERVIEW
Me .goodmorning
Co.goodmorning .how are u
Me.thanks am fine.
Co.when did u have advanced levels
Me…
Co.good.why do u like USA
Me…
Co.woow.good.what do you want to do in US
Me…
Co.thank u.come on the 11th-04-19, and collect your visa.
Me.thank you sir
Co.welcome to America.
Britsimon thanks again for you orientations.
April 10, 2019 at 23:02
Hey Bro…from ur interview I figured out we’re from the same region.pls I do really need ur help?
.pls what’s ur case num,
Wen did u submit your documents and wen did u receive ur 2nl?…
Ur response is going to be of great relief to me.thank u…
April 16, 2019 at 05:23
Hi
CaseNum 11xx
Documents were submitted on the 3th of January 2019.confirmation of complete and valid docs on the 5th January 2019.
Received 2nl on the 26th February 2019.
April 16, 2019 at 17:06
Tnks a lot…I appreciate.
April 8, 2019 at 19:56
I still can’t believe that last year I was out with EU26000..and this year we are in may at 21900..sadness
April 8, 2019 at 18:27
I’m a DV winner from Egypt my case number is 2019AF146XX, my interview scheduled on 14 May 2019 but I got married after my interview appointment was scheduled. Could I add my husband to my case? If yes what should I do now to add him? Thank you in advance.
April 8, 2019 at 18:36
How silly to leave that so late!
Now you will have to contact the embassy and see what they say about adding a spouse.
April 8, 2019 at 18:02
Hi Simon.
It looks like KCC has stopped sending emails.
Are we probably in scenario A conditions?
Scenario A)
If KCC change the process that is causing the backlog (which I suspect they are doing, but cannot be certain) then the backlog cases will take the majority of the available interviews and the VB number would not need to increase rapidly.
Thank you.
April 8, 2019 at 18:19
I don’t know.
April 8, 2019 at 18:58
XHANA.
Whats the pointer that they have stopped sending emails?
April 8, 2019 at 19:12
It looks like people over 24,000 for the EU are not receiving emails.
April 10, 2019 at 10:53
no..they send emails..lot of people i know got the email about sending docs and confirmation ..this week
April 7, 2019 at 17:02
Hello BritSimon,
My case number is 2019EU00029***. One week ago, I sent an email to [email protected] attached the documents required for further procedure without being asked by KCC.
Within a few seconds after that, I received an automatic reply stating: The Kentucky Consular Center (KCC) has received your email and is currently processing your documents. This email address, [email protected], is only used for applicants to provide the Kentucky Consular Center (KCC) with documents required to continue processing Diversity Visa applications. [email protected] does not respond to inquiries. If you have any Diversity Visa related questions, please email [email protected] with your case number, complete name, and date of birth, as entered on your original entry.
I understand that my case number is high and, probably, the best I can do is wait and see, but I am interested in your opinion whether this is the best strategy or is there anything else I can do? What would you do if it was your case?
Thank you!
April 7, 2019 at 17:30
Nothing else but wait…
April 7, 2019 at 17:43
This expectation is becoming more and more unbearable every day ….. With this stress we are going through in America we will go without mind
April 7, 2019 at 14:09
Hi Brit,
My parents were written in their Chinese name on my birth certificate. But they changed name to Indonesian names due to law at those time. I also put my parents name in Indonesian on ds260. Do I need to send my parents name change certificate with its translation along with my documents to KCC? Or I just send what they ask, birt certificate only. Thanks, Brit.
April 7, 2019 at 17:26
Send what they ask for.
April 7, 2019 at 08:33
Hi Sir,
I have received an email 2 months ago to submit further required documents then i submitted after two days i received another emails its about confirmation that i have submitted completed and required documents they wanted , but still no other confirmation regarding 2NL my case is 2019AS00011xxxx
April 7, 2019 at 16:23
Your case number is not current yet. Patience.
April 6, 2019 at 20:33
I don’t understood, I read all post and I ask you this year will be current for EU?
April 7, 2019 at 15:09
Wait and see.
April 6, 2019 at 14:45
Hi Brit. Thankyou for ur endless n unconditional advices, we appreciate. I’m supposed to go for my interview in May. But I have some questions, in 2014 n 15, I applied Green card with my cousin as a couple(coz we thought it’ll b double chances of winning. I was not yet married ), but in 2017, I filled with my hubby n we won. Q1, can embassy still have 2014/15 data that shows I was married? Q2, shld I get a divorce letter(from my cousin?) to avoid complications during my interview?
April 6, 2019 at 15:00
You appear to not understand the word “honesty”. Yes they will have access to your earlier form but adding another fraudulent document now is an even more idiotic idea than the one you had before. If asked, TELL THE TRUTH, and hope they forgive your earlier stupidity.
April 6, 2019 at 07:39
Goodday brit.
2 days ago, i complain to the kcc of not recieving my 2nl last month which was (march), after sending my document last december of which i was ask to sent.And i am current for next month( May). And they reply to me to re-submit my document.My quastion is,
1 will my intrview still be schedul for may?
2 since i have re-submit my document how long will i wait for my 2nl?
thans.
April 6, 2019 at 14:46
1. No
2. Possibly a June interview, maybe July.
April 6, 2019 at 01:40
Does the backlog Happen in theEU as well?
April 6, 2019 at 03:34
Yes.
April 5, 2019 at 20:59
Thanks again!
But i wonder if someone applied in the last application can re-apply while he/she was waiting for the day results
April 5, 2019 at 23:44
Yes
April 5, 2019 at 18:49
thank you very much,i will do that. she meet the education requirement
April 5, 2019 at 17:57
Hi Brits, thank you very much for all your good work, may the almighty God bless you abundantly. Please i need your help, my wife is a principal applicant in Dv 2019 and i and my seven months old daughter are derivatives. we have been scheduled for interview on the 30/04/2019 but we have a problem in our ds 260. When we first discovered that my wife had succeeded, we had no idea on how to fill the form and a friend opted to help us. we then gave him all our information require for him to use in the process but in the part where he was to fill work/ Education/ Training information for my wife, he filled the same information that was meant for me. this implies that her Work/education/training information are not true for her but is a repeatation of what was filled for me.we are to attend interview in the US embassy in Yaounde/Cameroon and our DS 260 forms were already send to the embassy. We discovered it since but did not really know what to do till now. The problem is only at the level of work /education /training for my wife alone who happen to be the principal applicant. Please is they anything we can do now?
April 5, 2019 at 18:33
Email the embassy with an explanation. If she meets the education requirements there should be no problem.
April 5, 2019 at 15:50
hi brit
2 days ago, i complain to the kcc of not recieving my 2nl last month which was (march), after sending my document last december of which i was ask to sent.And i am current for next month( May). And they reply to me to re-submit my document.My quastion is, will my intrview still be schedul for may?
April 5, 2019 at 16:48
No.
April 5, 2019 at 20:59
plese!
what could be my chances?
April 5, 2019 at 23:44
Of what?
April 5, 2019 at 06:43
Hi Brit my cn is AF26xxx and i think i will current this month when is needed sponsorship letter after interview or or before? Thanks,
April 5, 2019 at 14:51
You need it at the interview.
April 5, 2019 at 17:50
Hi Tutu, please help me with more explanation on what is sponsorship letter….Thanks
April 4, 2019 at 14:59
Hi Simon. I have a question. Does your sponsor send you the letter of sponsor directly to you or he will have to send it directly to the embassy. Thanks .
April 4, 2019 at 15:18
To you.
April 4, 2019 at 16:35
Ok thanks.
April 3, 2019 at 16:24
Hi, Simon
On 29 March i got Email for Interview and Thanks for everything you are teaching us, I have a question about Medical Examination.
Is any problem of missing one vaccine or more, should i get those vaccines before i go to the Medical Examination ?
Or is better to wait for Doctor to tell me ( My Concern is that for every vaccine which you take you should wait 1 month to get another one and i am afraid for my interview can be delayed )
Best Regards
Fiton
April 3, 2019 at 17:01
The physician will decide what is required, and will administer missing jabs (usually at a cost). You can save money by doing those elsewhere, BUT the physician decides what is needed, so IMHO it is best to let the panel physician handle the whole thing.
April 3, 2019 at 18:28
Can that delay my Interview Date ( if i need more than one vaccine ) ?
April 3, 2019 at 18:44
Not usually.
April 2, 2019 at 19:43
Hi Brit,
Thank you for the info.
Quick question.
Lets say they won’t get close to filling the quotas. It means for AOSers that if they get an interview and approvel before the end of fiscal year, there will not be lack of visa situation like happened I think in 2017?
April 2, 2019 at 20:17
You answered your own question with your assumption.
April 2, 2019 at 22:30
Thank you,
Another assumption if my region goes current (EU). Does that mean there is enough visas for the remaining cases even if it is AOS or it means every leftover case can get an interview, if so is it for AOSers too or only CP?
April 3, 2019 at 00:13
AOS cases are not allocated a visa in the same way that CP cases are, so in theory, there could be enough visas for CP cases and NOT enough for AOS cases.
April 3, 2019 at 00:48
Thank you
April 2, 2019 at 18:08
Hello Simon, thanks a lot for your new post. I don’t completely understand about scenario A. Why do you think that KCC will cancel document procedure?
April 2, 2019 at 20:19
I didn’t say cancel – but maybe change.
Anyway – read this:
https://britsimonsays.com/further-analysis-of-backlog-as-of-april-2019/
April 2, 2019 at 16:12
I understand where the problem is ?? If you see the dates you will see that from the case number 18500 -40717 there are 1800 issues waiting to be interviewed ….. Based on the number of visas that have been provided so far SUPPOSED that they are about 1500 issues (baclues))) .. total 3300 who are waiting for an interview for the following 4 months ……. Can you give your opinion about my analysis ????
April 2, 2019 at 20:25
https://britsimonsays.com/further-analysis-of-backlog-as-of-april-2019/
April 2, 2019 at 15:00
Good afternoon Mr Brit,
Is it possible for my cn af32*** to current next month ?
April 2, 2019 at 14:58
Hi Brit ,
Is possible to my cn 32*** to be current next month ?
April 2, 2019 at 16:24
Possibly. Wait and see.
April 2, 2019 at 13:40
Hi Brit,
Ghana stopped somewhere in the middle of nowhere (19500, less than fist limited country for AF region; while AF limit 24500 is above the first limit). Ukraine stopped somewhere in the middle of nowhere (at about 18200 while Ukrainian numbers are expected much higher; while EU limit 21900 is above Ukrainian max).
Why is that? Why are Ghana and Ukraine significantly below than what is expected?
April 2, 2019 at 14:01
The countries you mention are limited during the DRAW process, so their numbers end early. To understand why – read the link below.
https://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/
April 2, 2019 at 13:10
Hello Simon,i want to say Highly appricate for your fantastic good example of teacher and excellent adviser and supportive comments in general.
as you told,i sent all the required documents to kcc again at the end of March 31/2019 and kcc doesn’t sent me the
valid e-mail on still. So do you think i will get my 2nl for
June?
CN Af28***
be blessed!
April 2, 2019 at 13:55
I don’t know.
April 2, 2019 at 13:02
Hi Brit, Thanks for the useful post again.
I have a question which is not related to this topic. I finished my interview and got my visa approved. The visa expiry date is exactly 6 months from the day of the medical and I am planning to enter US around 2 weeks before the visa expiration date. I want to know if that is fine or maybe I shouldn’t wait until the last moment and travel earlier?
April 2, 2019 at 13:55
That is OK.
April 2, 2019 at 12:29
hello brit,am from AFRICA my case number AF21XXX i sent all documents Feb 20 not receive email and i sent documents again Mar 20 lastly i asked to kccdv my documents good or not good kcc send me Your forms have been received and are currently processing .interviews are scheduled numerically based on case numbers …………….long message. 1= what is my case problem brit ?
2= i have a chance for June interview
April 2, 2019 at 13:54
1 & 2. I dont know.
April 2, 2019 at 12:12
hey brit in worst scenario do you give a chance that eu25k can’t get an interview date?
April 2, 2019 at 13:53
Did you read the article at all?
April 2, 2019 at 21:41
well yes unfortunatelly i did it several times but because of english is not my native language i cannot be sure if i understand correctly so i asked you specifically for my case to be clear. i know you are trying to help people and there are a lot of people asking the same questions over and over again and it’s annoying but i had no choice i am worried about being current.
April 2, 2019 at 22:20
Your number is only 3 or 4 thousand above the current range. There are 4 months left. Come on, use some basic logic. I obviously cannot predict precisely – so just use some logic, then wait and see.
April 3, 2019 at 05:19
thank you for your time, i am relieved. i wouldn’t ask that question before i read your ”scenario A”. after reading i am just panicked.
April 2, 2019 at 12:09
i hope that s gonna be sinario B..
April 2, 2019 at 12:23
i have Af43k they sent me the email for documents last week…it s sinario B ..what do u think
April 2, 2019 at 13:54
Your case doesn’t show us anything because your number is not going to be current in the next month.
April 2, 2019 at 11:43
Hi.sir.im.Badrul.from.Bangladesh.im.very.poor.man.you.help.me.sin.and.joand.me.dv.lotary.2019.
April 2, 2019 at 13:52
People born in Bangladesh are excluded from the lottery.
April 2, 2019 at 11:30
Hello,Mr Simon. I didn’t print my 1NL and it is now replaced by 2NL. Does it affect my case if I don’t bring my 1NL to the interview? Is there any way to get it back? Thank you sir
April 2, 2019 at 13:51
No. Print the 2NL
April 2, 2019 at 11:29
Do you foresee a cap, like the previous years?
April 2, 2019 at 13:51
I really don’t know!
April 2, 2019 at 07:53
I personally believe they will continue with scenario B for this year at least. My case is AS11xxx and I have received an email from KCC requesting me to submit the documents.
April 4, 2019 at 15:05
Hi Tarek, did you receive the email this month or last month? Mine is AS13xxx and i am trying to estimate when I need to start preparing them.
April 10, 2019 at 09:35
Hi YZ,
Sorry for the late reply. I only saw your comment now. I received the email on 29 March and I submitted the documents on 5 April.
April 2, 2019 at 07:49
Hi, what is making you suspect they’re changing the backlog- causing factor ? And what do you think they’re changing ?
April 2, 2019 at 08:52
Every month there are a limited number of visa are delivered and they can’t exceed it, and in case they decide to stop the document procedure (Plan A) so they have to send 2NL to people that they have a low case number and they didn’t send their documents (backlog cases) and these cases will take the majority of the available monthly interviews, so automatically it will be hard for them to reach a higher case number and the next visa bulletin will increase very slowly.
But if they don’t stop the document procedure (Plan B) so we’ll see a significant increase in the next visa bulletin
April 2, 2019 at 13:50
No – there is no limit on the visas issued in a month, but there is a capacity limit for the interviews, which results in the same thing.
April 2, 2019 at 13:47
Several people reported receiving a documents request email and then a documents all processed email within a few minutes of the first. That would be the result of setting a “ready for interview” status artificially.
April 2, 2019 at 16:11
Reporting in on current procedure for data!
FEB 20 -> Further DV documents required email. A request to send police cert, passport, etc copies to [email protected]
MAR 16 -> Sent documents.
MAR 16 -> Automatic reply email. Email received, your documents are being processed.
APR 1 -> Documents received email. You have submitted a complete DS-260 and all required documentation. Bla-bla, bulletin updated each month, when interview is scheduled you will get email.
EU19XXX. Hope it helps anyone or clears the things about procedure.
April 10, 2019 at 09:32
Thank you Alex. This helps a lot. I have submitted my documents after receiving an email to do so. Now I am waiting for the “Documents Received” email.
April 11, 2019 at 07:46
Alex,
Do you have your appointment already scheduled?
I have similar case number as you EU19XXX and my timeline is as below:
MARCH 5TH – request for documents
APRIL 9TH – documents sent with automatic confirmation
APRIL 10TH – documents received & confirmed by KCC
Now I´m waiting for appointment in embassy, but just curious about your case.
April 20, 2019 at 14:13
Did you get 2NL ( For MAY OR JUNE )
April 3, 2019 at 04:26
Hi Simon.
Are you sure those several people didn’t send supporting documents before they recieved an automated email from KCC asking for documents?
And later system checked for documents and sent 2nd automated email saying that documents are processed.
April 3, 2019 at 05:16
Yes. Why would I mention it otherwise???? I’m not an idiot.
April 2, 2019 at 07:31
as i see kcc is sending email again for sending documents ….. It approaches more than scenario B ….. I understand it as a well organized administration, can do such management ….. If there were NO ADJUSTABLE visas we would have been OK … but to get the chance when the visa is over, this is very disappointing
April 2, 2019 at 06:24
Hi
So my question is….my mom is the principal applicant for dv2019 nd my aunt has sent a sponsor letter but by the name if my father…is it gonna be a problem at the interview…my interview is in 12 days
April 2, 2019 at 13:42
No
April 2, 2019 at 05:30
I can see that there is a great drop in AP & refused as compared to the same time last year ….courtsey of new document
April 2, 2019 at 13:41
Yes, I see your thinking but there simply have not been enough interviews – even allowing for the fact that some interviews would previously have been scheduled but people would have not continued, or been placed on AP etc.
April 2, 2019 at 03:50
Does the backlog happen in the AS as well?
April 2, 2019 at 04:47
Probably.
April 2, 2019 at 02:47
thanks alot Brit…I’m going get my my chip today….